我国啤酒大麦生产与市场分析

<正> 2009年春季,全球金融海啸继续蔓延,实体经济所受冲击逐渐显现。聚焦我国的啤酒产业链条,特别是以啤酒大麦、麦芽、啤酒花为主的啤酒原料的生产与市场,也出现了近三十年来最为严重的负面情况。其中啤酒大麦和麦芽市场的问题主要表现为:麦芽企业出现大量的闭门停产,开工生产的企业中许多是在亏损中运行;麦芽市场疲软,一年内价格下跌40%左右,且销售量较往年同期大幅减少;进口啤酒大麦价格回落至七、八年前的水平,国产啤酒大麦的严重滞销,或因在不正常低价位水平上而无利润或负利润销售,导致2009年春播面积将大幅度减少。

China beer barley production and market analysis

In the spring of 2009, global financial crisis continues which impacts on real economy are emerging. Focusing on the production chain of China brewage industry, especially the market of beer materials including barley, malt and hop, we can observe the worst situation in the latest 30 years. In the market of beer barley and malt, many malt enterprises are running in the red or even shut down. The malt market is in recession, the price of malt falls by 40% during a year, and sales volume reduces substantially compared to the same period in the previous years. The price of imported beer barley also has fallen to the level of seven or eight years ago. Domestic barley industry under pressure of dull sale and negative profits gives rise to the planting area shrinking in 2009. In 2008, cultivation areas of domestic beer barley were more than 82 million hektare, increased by about 17.3 million, compare with 64.67 million hektare in 2007. Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu and Jiangsu are the provinces contributed the main increase of planting areas. And Inner Mongolia has become the largest beer barley production province of China in 2008. In 2008, the total output of domestic beer barley is roughly estimated 3.44 million tons, increased by 1.09 million tons compared 2007 (2.35 million tons). The actual market capacity is still difficult to estimate so far, but more likely to be less than 2007. At present, facing the situation of beer barley yield and market, enterprises should focus on the following tasks: Firstly, prudently review the market during 2007/2008 and 2008/2009, acquire better knowledge on the factors impacting on the relationship between supply and demand, as well as production and market. Secondly, increase information channels and take the initiative to break through the information asymmetry. Thirdly, prepare for industry update, such as the introduction of well qualified personnel or technical training to enhance the ability of the staff. Fourthly, continue to develop research and production, and give suggestions to competent departments of government on supervision and the other tasks related to the industry development.