国际奶业市场的最新动态与趋势

近期,在南京举办的"第五界中国国际奶业展览会及高层论坛"中,恒天然商贸(上海)有限公司中国商务发展部总经理郭学研先生为大会做了题为"变化中的世界奶业市场——过去、现在和将来"的报告,具体分析了国际奶业市场的最新动态与趋势。郭先生从需求和供应两个基本方面着手分析,具体涉及到了消费水平、产品结构、气候变化、饲料价格、出口补贴和征税以及汇率等多方面的影响。

Analysis of World Dairy Market Status and Trend

The extremely high price of dairy products in global market has abnormally lasted for more than one year.which is caused by a number of factors,including consumption,climate change,price of fodder, export policy and exchange rate etc. Australia has suffered serious dry weather continuously for several years and thus its dairy production can hardly recover soon.The dairy trade among EU countries increases,while the EU export does not grow greatly. because of the quota production,exchange rate and certain other compli- cated reasons.An important reason is the increase of cheese demand in Europe and the high price of whey powder products in world market. Whey powder is actually a side product of cheese production.But the demand of whey powder is increasing in some developing countries, particularly in China,which indeed promotes the cheese production further in EU.And consequently,the production of skimmed milk powder is restricted.In American,ethanol production is developing quickly and consuming considerable maize as material.Given that maize is a kind of fodder for cows,the dairy industry is influenced adversely.Meanwhile, the storage of skimmed milk powder has reduced greatly in USA.And due to less dairy products available in global market,more and more importers are turning to New Zealand,as a result,the storage of Zelanian dairy products are dropping dramatically as well.At the same time,the demand of dairy is increasing in numerous developing countries,but in Latin America,taxes restrict export In countries as Brazil and China,it is still the first priority to meet domestic demand. So far,the global storage of dairy products,especially skimmed milk powder is almost consumed completely,that means the price of dairy in global market would not fall until 2009.However,in China,the dairy production increased by 15% in 2006,but the price of fodder is raising while the price of raw milk is not.So a number of cows have slaughtered that certainly causes damage to the industry.Fortunately.China dairy associa- tion has begun to take actions.Hopefully,Chinese dairy industry could conquer the difficulties soon,achieve further development and grab the opportnnity to gradually play an important role in global dairy market.