基于证据理论的机械结构高效可靠性分析方法

提出一种证据理论与近似模型相结合的机械结构高效可靠性分析方法。首先基于证据理论建立可靠性分析数学模型，然后通过径向基函数构建极限状态函数的近似模型，并利用样本点局部加密来提高近似模型的精度，最后基于一阶近似可靠性分析方法对近似可靠性分析问题进行求解，从而获得衡量机械结构可靠性的可信度和似真度。算例结果表明该方法不但能保证计算结果精度，还提高了计算效率。

An Efficient Mechanical Structure Reliability Analysis Method Based on Evidence Theory

An efficient mechanical structure reliability analysis method was proposed based on combination of evidence theory and approximation model technology. Firstly, a corresponding mathematical model of reliability analysis was established based on evidence theory. Then, an approximate model of limit state functions was constructed by radial basis function. Local-densifying samples were used to improve the fitting accuracy of the approximationg model. Finally, the approximation reliability analysis problems were solved by the first-order approximation reliability analysis method, and the belief measures and plausibility measures of mechanical structure reliability were obtained. Computational results demonstrate that the method may ensure the accuracy of the calculation results, and improve the computational efficiency.