基于专家经验法的机械密封基本事件失效概率分析方法

该文针对在缺失大量失效统计数据时获得机械密封失效概率非常困难的状况,采用专家经验法对机械密封发生失效的基本事件进行定性判断,并采用模糊集理论,对专家给出的机械密封失效基本事件的失效概率进行定量分析,综合判断机械密封失效的基本事件的发生概率,获得基于专家经验法分析机械密封基本事件失效发生的概率值,指导机械密封的故障诊断,获得机械密封可靠性评估的基础数据。同时该方法可为研究机械密封可靠性提供一种研究思路。

Failure Probability Analysis Method of Mechanical Seal Basic Events Based on Expert Experience Method

In view of the fact that it is very difficult to obtain the failure probability of mechanical seals when a large number of failure statistics are missing,this paper uses expert experience method to qualitatively judge the basic events of mechanical seals failure,and uses fuzzy set theory to quantitatively analyze the failure probability of the basic events of mechanical seals failure given by experts.The probability of basic events of mechanical seals failure is judged synthetically.And the probability value of failure occurrence of mechanical seals based on expert experience method is obtained.This can guide the fault diagnosis of mechanical seals,and provide datas for reliability evaluation of mechanical seals.This method can provide a research idea for dealing with the reliability of mechanical seals.