| 成败型产品可靠性评价的加权Bayes方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘解放,刘思峰,方志耕. 成败型产品可靠性评价的加权Bayes方法[J]. 中国机械工程, 2013, 24(24): 3371-3374 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘解放 刘思峰 方志耕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京航空航天大学,南京,2100162.河南科技学院,新乡,453003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924022, 70971064, 70901041, 71171113, 71271226);国家自然科学基金与英国皇家学会国际合作交流项目(71111130211);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(10ZD&014);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20093218120032,200802870020);江苏省高等学校优秀科技创新团队基金资助项目(Y0553-091);江苏省高等学校哲学社会科学重点研究基地和国家级教学团队基金资助项目(10TD128) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对经典统计方法和传统Beyes方法的缺陷,基于卡方拟合优度检验，引入相似系数的概念,提出了一种基于多阶段试验信息的成败型产品可靠性评价的加权Bayes方法。通过计算各阶段试验信息和现场试验信息的相似系数，求出各阶段试验信息作为验前信息的置信下限，据此计算得到了产品的可靠性置信下限。仿真算例结果表明,该方法的计算结果介于经典统计方法和传统Bayes方法之间,与根据专家意见计算的结果最接近,评价结果更加合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 可靠性评价 相似系数 贝叶斯分析 验后分布 |
Weighted Bayesian Method of Reliability Evaluation for Binomial Products |
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| Liu Jiefang,Liu Sifeng,Fang Zhigeng. Weighted Bayesian Method of Reliability Evaluation for Binomial Products[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2013, 24(24): 3371-3374 |
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| Authors: | Liu Jiefang Liu Sifeng Fang Zhigeng |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing,2100162.Henan Institute of Science and Technology,Xinxiang,Henan,453003 |
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| Abstract: | Because of defects of classical statistical method and traditional Bayesian method, a reliability evaluation method of binomial products based on the multistage information was proposed. The concept of similarity coefficient was introduced based on the chi-square goodness of fit. The similarity coefficients of each stage is got test information and field test information were determined respectively. Then the confidence lower limit was determined with each stage is got test information as information prior to the field test. Finally, the confidence lower limit of the product. The simulation examples show that the calculation results are between classical statistical method and traditional Bayesian method, and the evaluation result is more reasonable. |
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| Keywords: | reliability evaluation similarity coefficient Bayesian analysis posteriori distribution |
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