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| 具有周期变化和下降趋势的地下水位的预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 金菊良,杨晓华,金保明,丁晶. 具有周期变化和下降趋势的地下水位的预测[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 2000, 0(3): 53-57 |
| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 杨晓华 金保明 丁晶 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学,水利电力工程学院,四川,成都,610065 2. 河海大学,数学物理系,江苏,南京,210098 3. 福建省南平市水利电力局,福建,南平,353000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金! (49871 0 1 8)，中国博士后科学基金，四川大学高速水力学国家重点实验室开放基金!990 4 |
| 摘 要： | 应用门限自回归 (TRA)模型解决具有周期性变化和下降趋势的地下水位的预测问题 ,可以有效地利用地下水位资料所隐含的时序分段相关性 ,起到限制模型误差 ,保证模型预测性能的稳定性 ,提高预测精度的作用 |
| 关 键 词： | 地下水位 时间序列 门限自回归模型 非线性预测 遗传算法 |
Pediction of periodic variation and decline tendency of groundwater level |
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| JIN Ju-liang,YANG Xiao-hu,JIN Bao-ming,DING Jing. Pediction of periodic variation and decline tendency of groundwater level[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2000, 0(3): 53-57 | |
| Authors: | JIN Ju-liang YANG Xiao-hu JIN Bao-ming DING Jing |
| Abstract: | A simple and general scheme is presented for establishing the threshold auto regressive (TAR) model. With the accelerating genetic algorithm by the authors, both threshold values and auto regressive coefficients can be optimized, and the difficult problem of modeling of TAR is resolved, which gives a strong tool for widely using TAR model. The result of the calculation example shows that the problem can be successfully resolved for the prediction of the periodic variation and decline tendency of groundwater level with the scheme, that the method is practical and efficient, and that TAR model can effectively utilize the important information of the section interdependence during the time series such as groundwater level dates by controlling threshold valves, can reduce model errors, and can ensure good stability and accuracy of the model forecasting. As a general method, the scheme has major theoretic value and wide range application for predicting nonlinear time series. |
| Keywords: | groundwater level time series threshold auto regressive model nonlinear forecast genetic algorithm |
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