| 基于项目全生命周期的风险管理过程研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘 强,陈丽萍. 基于项目全生命周期的风险管理过程研究[J]. 工程管理学报, 2017, 0(6): 124-129. DOI: 10.13991/j.cnki.jem.2017.06.023 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘 强 陈丽萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学 工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了评估国际工程承包项目的实际风险水平，实现风险管理的有效性，基于工程项目的全生命周期，对风险管理的动态过程进行研究，将基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪理论应用于风险评价中，并采用解释结构模型探究风险因素间的相互影响关系，构建了基于全生命周期的风险管理动态模型。在该模型中形成了风险因素评价指标体系，确定了风险因素间的层级结构和重要性排序，从根源上寻求风险应对策略，并实时监控风险，实现全面、动态的管理过程。以麦加轻轨铁路项目为实例进行分析验证，其结果证明了该模型的可行性和实用性，有助于掌握实际风险水平，从而降低风险的不利影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险管理 全生命周期 加速遗传算法—投影寻踪理论 解释结构模型 |
A Study of Risk Management Process During the Project Life Cycle |
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| LIU Qiang,CHEN Li-ping. A Study of Risk Management Process During the Project Life Cycle[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2017, 0(6): 124-129. DOI: 10.13991/j.cnki.jem.2017.06.023 |
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| Authors: | LIU Qiang CHEN Li-ping |
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| Affiliation: | School of Engineering，Ocean University of China |
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| Abstract: | In order to assess the real risk level of international construction projects，and achieve the effectiveness of riskmanagement，this paper studied the dynamic process of risk management during the whole life cycle of international constructionprojects. This study applied an accelerating genetic algorithm based projection pursuit theory to assess risk，and used interpretativestructural modeling to explore the interaction among risk factors. Subsequently，a risk management dynamic model based on projectlife cycle was established. A index system for evaluating risk factors is provided to determine the hierarchy and importance of riskfactors，which can facilitate to seek the corresponding strategies，achieve real-time risk monitoring，and realize a comprehensive anddynamic management process. The case of Makkah Metro Pink Line was used to verify the feasibility and reliability of thedeveloped model. The results show that the model application can facilitate to evaluate the real risk level，thereby reducing theadverse impact from risks. |
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| Keywords: | risk management life cycle projection pursuit based on accelerating genetic algorithm theory interpretative structuralmodeling |
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