| 基于设备脆弱性的电网气象灾害故障预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙春红,赵艳雷. 基于设备脆弱性的电网气象灾害故障预测[J]. 山东电力技术, 2020, 47(2): 9-12 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙春红 赵艳雷 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东理工大学电气与电子工程学院,山东 淄博 255000;国网山东省电力公司博兴县供电公司,山东 滨州 256000;山东理工大学电气与电子工程学院,山东 淄博 255000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFB0902800）;国家电网公司科技项目（52094017003D） |
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| 摘 要： | 电网运维数据表明,电网设备故障主要由雷电、雨雪、大风、冰冻等自然气象因素引起,是电网防灾减灾的重点。基于气象与电网故障之间的关联特点,提出一种基于设备脆弱性的电网设备气象灾害故障预测方法。将设备脆弱性指数作为变量改进关联规则算法,实现设备不同历史状态下的归一化处理。算例分析表明,基于设备脆弱性改进的关联方法,能够准确、全面地建立气象信息与电网故障之间的映射关系,预测给定气象条件下的故障概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象信息 设备脆弱性 关联规则算法 故障预测 |
Meteorological Disaster Fault Prediction for Power GridBased on Equipment Vulnerability |
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| SUN Chunhong and ZHAO Yanlei. Meteorological Disaster Fault Prediction for Power GridBased on Equipment Vulnerability[J]. Shandong Electric Power, 2020, 47(2): 9-12 |
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| Authors: | SUN Chunhong and ZHAO Yanlei |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,China;State Grid Boxing Power Supply Company,Binzhou 256000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The data of grid operation and maintenance shows that the faults of power grid equipment are mainly caused by natural meteorological factors such as lightning,rain,snow,wind and ice.It is the focus of power grid disaster prevention and mitigation.Aiming at the correlation characteristics between meteorological and grid faults,a method for predicting fault of power grid equipment based on equipment vulnerability is proposed.Equipment vulnerability index is used as a variable to improve the association rule algorithm to achieve normalization in different historical states of equipment.The analysis of the example shows that the association method improved by equipment vulnerability can accurately and comprehensively establish the mapping relations between meteorological information and grid faults,and predicting the probability of failure under given meteorological conditions. |
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| Keywords: | meteorological information equipment vulnerability association rule algorithm fault prediction |
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