Effects of urbanization on Neotropical wasp and bee assemblages in a Brazilian metropolis

The rapid growth of cities in many parts of the world has stimulated an increasing number of ecological studies of urban environments. Here, 12 study sites in the city of Belo Horizonte (MG), southeastern Brazil, were compared to analyze the effects of habitat changes related to urbanization on the species richness and abundance of native wasps and bees. Two spatial scales were considered: large portions of the urban landscape (entire sites) and small areas within these sites (public squares). Overall, the abundance of advanced eusocial bees (i.e. stingless bees), which were the dominant species, was directly affected by the loss of vegetation cover and the increase of buildings associated with urbanization. The magnitude of this effect varied according to the nesting habits of each species. The loss of vegetation cover associated with urbanization also had a negative effect on the abundance and species richness of advanced eusocial wasps. Generalist species of bees and wasps, such as Trigona spinipes and Polybia occidentalis, were very abundant and not sensitive to the habitat changes related to urbanization. Advanced eusocial bees also responded to small-scale habitat changes (size and vegetation cover of public squares). No relation was found between the solitary and the primitive eusocial wasps and bees and the habitat changes considered here. Conservation strategies in urban environments need to consider different spatial scales in order to maintain or enhance the local diversity of wasps and bees.     

Large-scale Spatial Patterns in Species Richness of Orthoptera in the Greater London Area,United Kingdom: Relationships with Land Cover

This paper explores species richness of insects of the order Orthoptera (grasshoppers, crickets, etc.) along spatial gradients defined using remotely sensed land cover data for an area of 5600?km² centred on the city of London. The number of species within grid-squares of a national atlas, controlled for recording effort, declined along composite multivariate spatial gradients representing landscapes with increasing dominance of arable and urban land uses, yet was uncorrelated with the area of an individual land cover representing cultivated land, and only weakly correlated with a second land cover representing urban development. Few orthopteran species reside directly within either arable crops or non-vegetated urban land covers. Thus, whilst the areas of the individual land covers are intuitively sensible (and simple) measures of agricultural and urban cover respectively, their areas do not capture ecologically relevant information about variation in the composition of the uncultivated and non-urban land cover matrices within which the species actually reside. The results illustrate the advantages of using multivariate data reduction techniques (such as the Principle Components Analysis applied here) to describe spatial gradients in the extent of agricultural and urban influence. Relatively few landscape scale studies have focused on insects and the present study illustrates a) the potential for using Orthoptera to explore issues of biodiversity in the landscape and to monitor impacts of land use via analysis of large-scale spatial patterns from national species distribution atlases combined with remotely sensed land cover, and b) the importance of selecting appropriate measures of land use which incorporate information on the complex mix of land cover types utilised by the species under investigation.     

Distribution of generalist and specialist predators along urban gradients

The distribution of predators in urban areas is overlooked by urban planners. Due to the homogenizing power of urbanization, towns are expected to favour the settlement of generalist predators. We compared the frequency of specialist and generalist predators along an urban gradient (centre, inner periphery, outer periphery, and scarcely built areas) in towns of different size (small, medium, large). We obtained data on specialist (diurnal and nocturnal raptors, Dendrocopos major) and generalist (Larus michahellis, corvids) predators breeding in each square of the grid of 27 urban atlases. The number of species per square of specialist predators decreased in more urbanised sectors, whereas the number of generalist predators either did not change or increased in the same sectors. However, some specialist (nocturnal raptors except Athene noctua) and generalist (Garrulus glandarius, Pica pica) predators did not follow such a pattern of distribution. Town size may affect the distribution of predators. Some species (D. major, G. glandarius, P. pica) were more frequent in the more urbanised sectors in small towns. Data gathered in few towns on a limited number of predator species may not fully represent the complex response by predators to urban gradients. Urban planners should consider the distribution of predators in towns to limit risks for urban wildlife.     

Avifaunal Richness and Abundance Along an Urban Rural Gradient with Emphasis on Vegetative and Anthropogenic Attributes in Tiruchirappalli,India

Urban expansion and human migration from rural to urban locations have complex relationships with environmental change. Habitat fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and vegetation changes are some of the most common impacts of urbanisation. In many Indian cities, the urban core is characterised by historical human settlements with narrow lanes and packed commercial establishments, while urbanisation that occurred after 1970s preferred spacing between the dwellings with more greenery or urban forestry. As urbanisation progresses, the urban fringes have more scope for incorporating environmental concerns and conservation. In this study, we measured species richness and abundance of birds within varied urban habitats and landscapes along the urban–rural gradient in Tiruchirappalli, India. We also tried to determine the linkage between bird diversity and landscape attributes including anthropogenic factors. Our observations showed that within urban areas, certain landscapes favoured species richness while many habitats are unfriendly for species but encouraged homogenisation. As we move from urban core towards rural gradient, the species richness increased; however, it is not uniform in all peripheral directions. Interestingly, the urban fringes at certain pockets had richness equivalent to rural locations. Species richness positively correlated with vegetation cover while built cover, noise, vehicular movement and pedestrians had negative impacts. As the urban fringes are in various stages of development, they have more scope for integrating ecological and biodiversity considerations and in this aspect wetlands, riverine farmlands and urban forests may play a crucial role in retaining native birds and also supporting migratory bird species.     

The dimensions of global urban expansion: Estimates and projections for all countries, 2000–2050

Our study of the expansion of a representative sample of 30 cities showed that 28 of them expanded more than 16-fold during the twentieth century. More generally, cities are now expanding at twice their population growth rates, on average, and now cover almost 0.5% of the planet's land area. We created a new dataset comprising the universe of all 3646 named metropolitan agglomerations and cities that had populations in excess of 100,000 in the year 2000, their populations in that year, and their built-up area identified in the Mod500 map, currently the best of eight satellite-based global maps of urban land cover. Using this dataset, we estimated urban land cover in smaller cities and towns in all countries and calculated total urban land cover in every country in the year 2000. We then employed multiple regression models that could explain more than 90% of the variations in our urban land cover estimates amongst countries. Then, using U.N. urban population projections in combination with three realistic density change scenarios based on our previous global and historical study of densities, we projected urban land cover in every country and world region from 2000 to 2050. According to our medium projection, urban land cover in developing countries will increase from 300,000 km² in 2000 to 770,000 km² in 2030 and to 1,200,000 km² in 2050. Containing this expansion is likely to fail. Minimal preparations for accommodating it – realistic projection of urban land needs, the extension of metropolitan boundaries, acquiring the rights-of-way for an arterial road grid that can carry infrastructure and public transport, and the selective protection of open space from incursion by formal and informal land development – are now in order.     

The influence of coniferous afforestation on lowland farmland bird communities in Ireland: different seasons and landscape contexts

Current governmental policy in Ireland is encouraging afforestation, 80% of which is likely to consist of exotic conifer species, in low-lying agricultural areas. Whereas most studies of bird diversity in forest/farmland mosaic landscapes have focused on high quality woodland remnants in a hostile agricultural matrix, this study has considered the influence of man-made plantations in a less intensively farmed context. Bird communities of three lowland agricultural landscapes (each 2000 ha in area) with intermediate or low levels of coniferous forest cover (33% or 8% approximately) were sampled in winter and summer. Though total abundance and species richness of birds of farmland habitats in the partially forested and open sites did not differ, the presence of trees in the surrounding landscape did influence abundance of some common species such as Blue Tit Parus caeruleus, Robin Erithacus rubecula and Blackbird Turdus merula. In winter, species composition of farmland habitats with and without hedgerow trees differed between forested and open landscapes. Also, the abundance of certain species varied between farmland adjacent to and remote from forest edges, in both seasons. In these landscapes, coniferous plantations did not greatly affect the mainly generalist farmland bird community, either positively or negatively. However, if the proportion of land-use occupied by forestry were to increase, reducing the available hedgerow habitat and forest edge/area ratio, diversity and abundance of declining farmland bird species might be negatively affected.     

Comprehensive concept planning of urban greening based on ecological principles: a case study in Beijing, China

Greenspace is an important part of complex urban ecosystems and provides significant ecosystem services. It benefits urban communities environmentally, esthetically, recreationally and economically. Beijing Province is in north of China, and has a total area of 16,807.8 km² and a population of about 13.8 million. This paper aims to develop a comprehensive conceptual framework for urban greening of Beijing Province based on landscape ecological principles. It attempts to answer how to establish an urban greening plan at the regional, city and neighborhood levels to achieve long-term sustainability. At the regional level, a big natural and semi-natural forest area in the northwest and an ecological buffer belt in the southeast are planned to protect the environmental quality of Beijing and provide habitats for wildlife. At the city level, a green network system of green wedges, parks and green corridors has been proposed. This green network helps to limit future urban expansion, improve urban environmental quality and serve as habitats and migration routes for wildlife. At the neighborhood level, green extensions and connections of riverside greenway, road greenway, parks and vertical greening permeate into the built-up areas. They provide open space close to residential areas and offer places for recreation. This three-level green system constitutes an integrated ecological network for urban sustainable development of Beijing. For future development of Beijing, urban parks, forestry, agriculture, water and infrastructure should be planned and designed in an integrated way. After this greenspace plan is legislated and completely realized, Beijing will develop an interconnected and integrated network of urban greenspaces. It has the prospect of achieving the aim of “Green Olympic City 2008” and the long-term goal of developing Beijing towards an “Eco-City”.     

Birds are also sensitive to landscape composition and configuration within the city centre

Maintaining biodiversity in urbanised landscapes has become a conservation issue. Although numerous studies have shown that avifauna decreases according to urbanisation level, little is known about the influence of urban characteristics on avifauna in densely urbanised areas. This study took place in the centre of a highly urbanised area, Paris, France, where we defined a grid of 94 cells of 1 km² each. Using Bayesian model averaging, we examined the variation of diversity and abundance of breeding birds (41 species) through their feeding and nesting behaviours. We then analysed the responses of these guilds to composition (proportion of different types of buildings and green spaces) and configuration (heterogeneity, spatial arrangement of green spaces). The abundance of omnivorous and tree nester species was influenced by urban characteristics such as building heterogeneity. The positive influence of shrub cover on insectivorous species abundance was greater in areas with a high density of medium-height buildings. Omnivorous species abundance increased with the juxtaposition of vegetation when the bare soil cover was low, and decreased otherwise. Globally, the abundance of omnivorous, ground and tree nester species was sensitive to building characteristics, whereas insectivorous and granivorous species as well as roof nesters may benefit from green space management. We concluded that urban planning can also promote avifauna abundance in the city centre by varying the heights of buildings in urban renewal projects rather than clustering buildings of similar height, or by focusing on the spatial configuration of green spaces (especially their proximity) rather than their area.     

Distribution and habitat selection of wintering birds in urban environments

Habitat selection of wintering land-birds was studied in 31 human settlements in Finland. A total of 26 wintering bird species representing 5155 individuals were observed. Between-year variation (CV_B%) and short-term fluctuation within one winter (CV_W%) in species richness (CV_B=10% CV_W=15%) were low, as were total numbers of birds (CV_B=22% CV_W=24%) and populations of the most common bird species (CV_B=20–40% CV_W=15–47%). The most abundant bird species (e.g., Passer domesticus, Parus major and Pica pica) occurred in most of the study sites. The total densities of omnivorous birds, sedentary birds and bird species that commonly use feeding tables were higher in a heavily urbanized areas than in moderately or less urbanized areas. According to the Canonical Correspondence Analysis, three corvid species populations, P. domesticus and Columba livia domestica were positively related to human population density. Corvus corone cornix and P. domesticus populations correlated positively with the proportion of the built-up areas in the study plots. The omnivorous diet of these species was a possible reason for their success in urban environments. Dendrocopus major, Parus montanus, Parus cristatus, Parus ater and Certhia familiaris were negatively related to the urbanization axis. These species live mainly in coniferous forest habitats and are probably unable to use deciduous-dominated urban parks in winter time. To attract these species, coniferous trees and shrubs should also be used in park management and planning in northern latitudes. Many species, like Pic. pica, Carduelis chloris and Parus caeruleus, were located at an intermediate place on an urban–forest gradient axis. We suppose that these species are the most probable candidates for colonizing or increasing their abundances in European towns and cities in near the future. All of these species use feeding tables, which help them to adapt to urban environments.     

How do habitat variability and management regime shape the spatial heterogeneity of birds within a large Mediterranean urban park?

Large urban parks can support a diverse bird community. However, the effects of variability among habitats and of park management on bird assemblages are poorly understood. We studied bird communities within the Yarkon Park, Tel Aviv, the largest urban park in Israel. We examined species richness, abundance and community composition across 20 locations that differ in levels of park management to identify habitat variables responsible for variation in bird richness and composition. Of 91 recorded bird species, 13 were aliens (14%), 4 were urban exploiters (4%), 54 were urban adapters (60%) and 20 were migrants (22%). Management had a significant effect on native bird richness and bird community structure varied among areas with different management regimes. Species richness of all the above species’ groups was lowest in intensively managed areas. Areas with intermediate levels of management had higher or equal richness compared to unmanaged areas. The majority of urban exploiters were found at all locations within the park reaching their highest abundances in intensively managed areas. Species richness of alien birds did not vary across levels of management. Bird species richness was negatively associated with lawn cover and with distance from nearest water source and was positively associated with the number of woody plant species. We suggest that urban parks should be designed such that the heterogeneity of native vegetation is preserved, if we aim to maintain native bird species diversity and minimize urban exploiter and alien species. When lightly managed or unmanaged, urban parks can retain large remnants of sub-natural habitats and can serve as important contributors to the conservation of native biodiversity within a large urban metropolis.     

Bird communities of the Colorado Rocky Mountains along a gradient of exurban development

Most insights about the effects of residential development on wildlife are based on research from urban and suburban areas. Yet exurban development is an increasingly prevalent form of human settlement in many parts of the world. Moreover because such development often occurs near the periphery of protected areas, it may have a disproportionate influence on native species. We examined bird community patterns in the Rocky Mountains of north-central Colorado across a gradient of exurban development to determine how avifauna responded to this form of settlement. Using fixed-radius point counts, we surveyed the occurrence and abundance of breeding birds in 11 developed sites and in 6 nearby undeveloped sites, all occurring in a forested matrix. We sampled ground-level habitat features at each survey point and derived digital land-cover maps from aerial photographs to characterize and quantify road development and building density. We found little evidence that land-cover varied with development intensity, yet bird abundance increased significantly with building density. Patterns of species richness were equivocal due to a highly influential observation. Principal components analysis (PCA) distinguished two axes that explained nearly 50% of the variation in the bird community and were strongly associated with road and building density. Weighted average analysis showed a marked decline in the abundance and richness of species that were insectivorous or nested in snags, suggesting that reductions in dead wood may have influenced the bird community. However, no conclusions could be drawn because dead wood was confounded with building density. Logistic regression of species occurrence and building density indicated that the incidence of some generalist species increased with building density, whereas the incidence of specialists decreased. Overall, our results suggest that development at low densities can favor habitat generalists. Similar patterns have been observed in more urbanized areas. If exurban development persists as a popular form of settlement in the Rocky Mountains, a regional plan for protecting avian habitat and limiting development dispersion will be necessary to maintain native bird communities.     

Developing a land-cover classification to select indicators of forest ecosystem health in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

As moderate-sized cities become more urbanized, ecosystems are altered by land-use change. Key ecological services, such as clean air and water, drought and flood protection, soil generation and preservation, and detoxification of wastes are disrupted, risking the health and welfare of society. An understanding of ecosystem responses to urbanization is necessary to evaluate and balance short-term needs with long-term sustainability goals. Our main objective was to develop a land management and planning tool using a land-cover classification to select landscape indicators of ecosystem health near Columbus, GA. Spearman's Rho correlations were calculated to compare landscape and field-based indicators. Results suggest there are significant inverse correlations between ‘percent forest land-cover’ and ‘population, housing, and road densities’; ‘tree species richness’ and ‘forest patch density’; ‘percent urban land-cover’ and ‘lichen species richness’; ‘lichen incidence’ and ‘forest perimeter-area fractal dimension’. Overall, there were 152 significant urban/biological correlations obtained from this assessment (Rho ≥ |0.50| and p ≤ 0.10). Such a tool could prove useful to land managers and environmental planners by providing a quick and simple method to assess broad areas of land in a single analysis.     

Proximity to source populations and untidy gardens predict occurrence of a small lizard in an urban area

Very little is known about how lizards respond to urbanization. Given their small space requirements, opportunist lizard species can potentially exist in small patches of suitable urban habitat. This study identified the relative importance of landscape and habitat-level factors that influenced the occurrence of an opportunist and generally abundant species, the common skink Oligosoma nigriplantare polychrome in suburban private gardens in New Zealand. Private gardens are potentially important in sustaining urban wildlife as they make up a significant proportion of the total area of many cities. Common skinks were largely absent from the central suburbs and distributed in less highly ordered gardens around the city edge. Skink occurrence was influenced mainly by landscape-level features that reflect opportunities for dispersal into gardens from source populations (distance to city edge; presence of an adjacent grassy paddock) and habitat quality (messiness). To a lesser extent skink occurrence was associated with lower cat densities, less native vegetation and south-facing sites. Within private gardens common skinks were associated with areas with a high proportion of basking surfaces, lower plant species diversity, shorter distances to potential cover, and vegetation that was low in height and made up mainly of long exotic grasses. Despite common skinks’ ability to thrive in exotic vegetation and their small spatial requirements, it is unlikely that they will thrive in urban areas unless gardening practices change to increase resource availability and provide refuges from predators.     

Seasonal periodicity of plankton and benthic fauna community structure and diversity in a small North African reservoir

Aquatic biota in terms of phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthic fauna were qualitatively and quantitatively followed seasonally during 2007 in a North African small reservoir, Aswan Reservoir. Simultaneously, seasonal variations in water quality were investigated in order to determine how far the aquatic biota could be altered by physicochemical and biotic factors. In phytoplankton of the investigated reservoir, 75 species belonging to four systematic groups were recorded, comprising 11 Cyanoprokaryota, 24 Bacillariophyceae, 2 Dinophyceae and 38 Chlorophyceae. Most numerous zooplankton were Rotifera (23 species). Cladocera and Copepoda were less numerous, with only seven and three species, respectively. Early development stages of copepods, nauplii and copepodites were sometimes recorded in considerable numbers. Twenty‐two invertebrate species related to five animal groups were exclusively benthic fauna: three Oligochaeta, nine Mollusca, seven larvae of Chironomidae, one Platyhelminthes, one Hirudinea and one Decapoda. Generally, the estimated values of phytoplankton species richness were relatively higher than those of zooplankton or benthic fauna. In particular, phytoplankton was influenced by physicochemical factors – water transparency, salinity and soluble reactive silica contents – as well as biotic factors – zooplankton and benthic fauna. Levels of pH value, Mg⁺², NO₃‐N and chlorophyll‐a contents appeared to be the most influential parameters dictating the pattern of seasonal periodicity of benthic fauna. Numerically, the phytoplankton was somewhat more abundant in winter and autumn than in spring or summer. The peak of zooplankton population densities was observed in spring season. Benthic fauna tended to be abundant in summer and autumn seasons, showing a reverse seasonal trend from that of zooplankton. Cyanoprokaryota and Bacillariophyceae were the most important groups that determined the seasonal fluctuation pattern of phytoplankton. Rotifera and Copepoda were the most predominant groups influencing the seasonal periodicity of zooplankton. Oligochaeta and Mollusca alternated the dominancy of benthic fauna community in Aswan Reservoir.     

Ecological networks as a new approach for nature conservation in Turkey: A case study of İzmir Province

This paper aims to identify and evaluate a potential ecological network including core areas and large-scale corridors in the İzmir Province and its surrounding areas, Turkey. It is one of the first studies on the connectivity for mammal species and the detection of potential ecological corridors for Turkey. Four wide-ranging species (Hyaena hyaena, Lynx lynx, Caracal caracal, and Felis chaus) have been chosen as target species. Existing Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and surrounding lands have been evaluated based on a three criteria: (1) vegetation/habitat types, (2) carrying capacity and (3) road density using simple GIS-based models.The results are evaluated using the Minimum Viable Metapopulation (MVMP) standards. No KBA in the study region has a Key Population (KP) or Minimum Viable Population (MVP) with the exception of Boz Dağlar. Least cost-path analysis has been applied to identify linkages between KBAs relevant for the four target species. The conclusion is that it is possible to maintain MVPs in the region when the KBAs are linked by ecological corridors.     

可达性叠加效应与空间发展潜力研究——剖析香港轨道站域居住空间集聚形态

基于轨道系统与城市街道网络的可达性叠加效应,研究轨道站域空间发展潜力是高密度城市空间集聚形态的后续研究,是对城市集聚形态的成因和潜在动力的剖析。以空间句法的可达性评价工具为量化手段,采用K-means聚类方法,根据10km出行半径的街道网络可达性将69个港铁站分为4组,通过比较港铁系统置入城市道路网络前后的可达性,量化港铁站域的可达性提升幅度。以居住单元密度为基本研究对象,采用各区域及站点所在的选区居住单元密度之间的比值,描述港铁站核心区(200m半径)和站域(500m半径)的集聚程度,最终得出不同城市区域典型站点案例的可达性提升幅度与居住空间集聚程度的平均值。结合空间形态和发展过程分析8个不同区位港铁站域,发现轨道系统可达性叠加效应带来的发展潜力的体现程度与城市发展程度,与轨道建设时机、城市更新措施等有直接关系。解析轨道站域居住空间的集聚形态与轨道可达性之间的关系,将有利于推进我国大城市轨道站周边空间容量和形态的研究,通过引导形成集聚形态而强化轨道系统的综合效益。     

基于GIS与AHP法的岩溶塌陷易损性评价及其在城市建设规划中的意义

文章以桂林规划中心城区为例,利用地质环境要素通过层次分析法(AHP)对岩溶塌陷易损性进行评价,并通过MapGIS软件实现可视化。选取了人口密度、城市规划用地用途及道路用途3个影响岩溶塌陷易损性的地质环境因素,建立了岩溶塌陷易损性评价指标体系和评价方法,并对研究区进行了评价,依据预测分区指标计算,研究区岩溶塌陷易损分区结果为高易损区的面积约174.27 km^2;中易损区的面积约41.10 km^2;低易损区的面积约243.45 km^2;非易损区面积约421.18 km^2。     

Comparative analysis of rockmass characterization techniques for the stability prediction of road cut slopes along NH-44A,Mizoram, India

The network of roads in hilly areas plays an important role in the socio-economic development of any country. Instability in road cut slopes is the most critical and common problem in the Northeast region of India. We conducted rockmass characterization of thirteen slopes from three regions, namely Lengpui, Phunchawng and Aizawl Zoo areas near the Aizawl city, on the basis of rock mass rating (RMR), geological strength index (GSI), kinematic analysis, and various slope mass rating techniques. Wedge failure was observed to be prominent in these regions, though some other modes of failure were present at the site. The stability of road cut slopes was found to vary from partially stable to completely unstable with regard to slope mass rating (SMR), Chinese slope mass rating (CSMR) and the continuous slope mass rating (CoSMR). A comparative analysis was also carried out among the findings of various rockmass characterization techniques to predict the stability of the road cut slopes along NH-44A highway.

     

Large-scale patterns of epiphytic lichen species richness: photobiont-dependent response to climate and forest structure

Lichens are composite organisms consisting of a symbiotic association of a fungus with a photosynthetic partner. Although the photobiont type is a key life-history trait, tests of the potential differential role of the main photobiont types in shaping large-scale patterns of lichen species richness are still absent. The aim of the study was to test the influences of forest structure and climate on epiphytic lichen species richness across Italy and to see whether these relationships change for groups of species sharing different photobiont types. Regional species richness of epiphytic lichens divided into three main photobiont types (i.e. chlorococcoid green algae, cyanobacteria, and Trentepohlia algae) was retrieved for each of the 20 administrative regions. Multiple linear regression was used to quantify the effect of climate and forest structure, and their potential interaction, on the regional species richness for the three photobiont types, accounting also for the effect of regional area. Regional species richness was associated with both climate and forest structure variables but the relationships with both factors were largely photobiont dependent. Regional area and precipitation were the only predictors included in all the models, confirming the strong dependence of lichens on atmospheric water supply, irrespective of the photobiont type. Number of species with chlorococcoid green algae were further positively associated with cover of high forest, whilst lichens with Trentepohlia were further enhanced by warm temperatures. Cyanolichen species richness was only related to area and precipitation. Our study shed light on the relative importance of climate and forest structure on lichen species richness patterns at the macroscale, showing a differential response of the photobiont types to various environmental determinants. This differential response suggested that the current and future impacts of global change on lichens cannot be generalized and that species richness response will be likely dependent on the photobiont type.     

Monitoring and modelling spatio-temporal urban growth of Delhi using Cellular Automata and geoinformatics

The study encompasses spatio-temporal land use/ land cover (LULC) monitoring (1989–2014) and urban growth modelling (1994–2024) of Delhi, India to deduce the past and future urban growth paradigm and its influence on varied LULC classes integrating geospatial techniques and Cellular Automata (CA). The study focused on scrutinising the reliability of the CA algorithm to function independently for urban growth modelling, provided with strong model calibration. For this purpose, satellite data of six stages of time at equal intervals along with the population density, distance to CBD and roads, and terrain slope are used. The satellite-based LULC during 1989–2014 exhibited 457 km² of net urban growth (275% change), cloned by the simulated LULC with net increase 448 km² (270% change). The spatial variation analysis using the principal component analysis (PCA) technique exhibit high similarity in classification ranging from 72% to 88%. The statistical accuracy between the satellite-based and simulated built-up extent of 2014 resulted in the overall accuracy 95.62% of the confusion matrix, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve as 0.928—indication high model accuracy. The projected LULC exhibit that the urban area will increase to 708 km² and 787 km², primarily in western and eastern parts during 2019 and 2014 respectively. The rapid urban growth will replace and transform others LULC (net loss 138 km²) followed by vegetation cover (net loss 26 km²) during 2014–24. This rapid urban growth is detrimental to the habitat and may trigger critical risks to urban geo-environment and ecosystem in Delhi. Therefore, the study necessitates towards decentralization of urban functions and restoration of varied LULC in order to regulate the future urban growth patterns for sustainable development. The GDAL and NumPy libraries in Python 3.4 were efficient in spatial modelling and statistical calculations.