Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study

A generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs, cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) under highly uncertain gas prices, carbon pricing policy and electricity demand. Outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios, each with 10,000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands. In 2030, the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60% renewable energy. Increasing the renewable proportion to 75% slightly increased expected cost (by $0.2/MWh), but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost (representing the cost risk). Increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15% to 75% by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by $17/MWh. Fossil-fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices. Renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty. This is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions. This modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75% by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers, and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices.     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

Nuclear energy into the twenty-first century

The historical development of the civil nuclear power generation industry is examined in the light of the need to meet conflicting energy-supply and environmental pressures over recent decades. It is suggested that fission (thermal and fast) reactors will dominate the market up to the period 2010–2030, with fusion being relegated to the latter part of the twenty-first century. A number of issues affecting the use of nuclear electricity generation in Western Europe are considered, including its cost, industrial strategy needs, and the public acceptability of nuclear power. The contribution of nuclear power stations to achieving CO₂ targets aimed at relieving global warming is discussed in the context of alternative strategies for sustainable development, including renewable energy sources and energy-efficiency measures. Trends in the generation of nuclear electricity from fission reactors are finally considered in terms of the main geopolitical groupings that make up the world in the mid-1990s. Several recent, but somewhat conflicting, forecasts of the role of nuclear power in the fuel mix to about 2020 are reviewed. It is argued that the only major expansion in generating capacity will take place on the Asia-Pacific Rim and not in the developing countries generally. Nevertheless, the global nuclear industry overall will continue to be dominated by a small number of large nuclear electricity generating countries; principally the USA, France and Japan.     

An analysis of hydrogen production from renewable electricity sources

Three aspects of producing hydrogen via renewable electricity sources are analyzed to determine the potential for solar and wind hydrogen production pathways: a renewable hydrogen resource assessment, a cost analysis of hydrogen production via electrolysis, and the annual energy requirements of producing hydrogen for refueling. The results indicate that ample resources exist to produce transportation fuel from wind and solar power. However, hydrogen prices are highly dependent on electricity prices. For renewables to produce hydrogen at $2 kg⁻¹, using electrolyzers available in 2004, electricity prices would have to be less than $0.01 kWh⁻¹. Additionally, energy requirements for hydrogen refueling stations are in excess of 20 GWh/year. It may be challenging for dedicated renewable systems at the filling station to meet such requirements. Therefore, while plentiful resources exist to provide clean electricity for the production of hydrogen for transportation fuel, challenges remain to identify optimum economic and technical configurations to provide renewable energy to distributed hydrogen refueling stations.     

美国核电工业发展概况及对我国的启示

美国是世界上最早推动核电发展的国家,其核电工业发展经历了黄金发展阶段、冰冻阶段和复苏阶段。截至2008年底,美国核电总装机容量达到10．1×10^4MW,发电量8090×10^8kW·h,高居世界首位。2008年美国核电反应堆平均燃料更换时间为38天,机组容量因子已突破90％,在核电反应堆机组数量未增加的条件下发电量稳步增长,已占到美国总发电量的20％左右。核电的发展离不开政府的管理和积极政策的引导,否则很难发展起来。目前第三代核电站大部分都是美国和日本设计的,我国必须加大科研力度,缩小这种差距,推进核电设备国产化．实现真正拉动内需的目的。对运行核电站进行良好经营,可以挖潜增效,提高核电的内在竞争力和经济效益。应努力保障核电反应堆的安全性,核电反应堆发生事故对国家经济和信心的打击是非常巨大、持久的。同时,保证核燃料的供应也很重要。     

Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures

The fast penetration of energy technologies in the past was analyzed and applied to investigate the prospects of new energy technologies. The results show that single energy sources have obtained quite a dominant position in the past. In the USA, at one time both oil and coal each represented over half of all the yearly additions to energy capacity for more than half a century and reached a dominant position in overall energy production. Oil showed a similar dominance on a global scale. For two decades nuclear power represented one third of all the new electricity added worldwide and over 60% in the countries possessing nuclear power. In some countries nuclear grew to around half of all electricity in less than just 10 years. Applying these empirical observations to new renewables and assuming similar growth conditions as for the old technologies, the share of renewable electricity could grow from its present 19% to 60% by 2050, which would drop the baseline CO₂ emissions by 27%. The share of new renewables of all electricity would come up to 42%. The rate of adoption of these new technologies would not exceed that of oil or nuclear in the past, but they would need to dominate new electricity investments from 2030 onwards. A hypothetical fast-track case for solar photovoltaics, assuming an expansion similar to that seen in the case of nuclear and oil, would lead to a 20–25% share of all electricity in 2050. An important observation is that the fast and high penetration of energy technologies implies, in most cases, a full lock-in into these, requiring a preferential position regarding investments and a favorable long-term policy framework.     

Economic and climate impacts of reducing China's renewable electricity curtailment: A comparison between CGE models with alternative nesting structures of electricity

To mitigate climate change impacts and achieve low-carbon transformation, China has accelerated the development of renewable energy, which is severely challenged by the curtailment of renewable electricity. This study uses a dynamic multi-sectoral CGE model with alternative nesting structures and substitution elasticities for electricity with different power sources to capture the economic and environmental feasibility of reducing renewable electricity curtailment across all economic sectors in China. The reduction of renewable electricity curtailment is simulated during 2021–2030 from the curtailment rates of 2015–2017. We found that the reduction of renewable electricity curtailment would lead to a significant expansion in the output of renewable electricity and a moderate decrease in non-renewable electricity production. Among the renewable electricity, wind power has the most significant output gain (over 9%), with solar power and hydropower outputs rising by over 5% and 1.5%, respectively. However, without the cost-neutrality assumption, the impacts of reducing electricity curtailment would be largely over-estimated with CGE models simulated by improved technology. The disparity between results from the models with alternative nesting constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions for electricity sectors is highly dependent on the difference between their substitution elasticities. Accompanying the changes in electricity generation, the reduction of renewable electricity curtailment would bring multiple green co-benefits like significantly reducing CO2 and air pollutants emitted from electricity sectors, and improvements in real GDP and employment.     

Assessment of solar electricity potentials in North Africa based on satellite data and a geographic information system

Solar thermal power plants will provide a major share of the renewable energy sources needed in the future. STEPS, an evaluation system for solar thermal power stations, was designed to calculate the performance of such power stations as a function of direct solar radiation, geographical conditions (land slope, land cover, distance from cooling water resources, etc.), infrastructure (pipelines, electricity grids, streets etc.) and the configuration and performance of a selected solar thermal power plant concept. A cloud index derived from METEOSAT satellite images is used to calculate the direct solar radiation resource. A geographic information system (GIS) is used to process all the parameters for site assessment. In order to demonstrate the concept, an analysis of Northern Africa was performed with STEPS providing a ranking of sites with respect to the potential and cost of solar thermal electricity for a particular power plant configuration. Results were obtained with high spatial and temporal resolution.     

福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。     

Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

Policy makers face difficult choices in planning to decarbonise their electricity industries in the face of significant technology and economic uncertainties. To this end we compare the projected costs in 2030 of one medium-carbon and two low-carbon fossil fuel scenarios for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) against the costs of a previously published scenario for 100% renewable electricity in 2030. The three new fossil fuel scenarios, based on the least cost mix of baseload and peak load power stations in 2010, are: (i) a medium-carbon scenario utilising only gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs); (ii) coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plus peak load OCGT; and (iii) gas-fired CCGT with CCS plus peak load OCGT. We perform sensitivity analyses of the results to future carbon prices, gas prices, and CO₂ transportation and storage costs which appear likely to be high in most of Australia. We find that only under a few, and seemingly unlikely, combinations of costs can any of the fossil fuel scenarios compete economically with 100% renewable electricity in a carbon constrained world. Our findings suggest that policies pursuing very high penetrations of renewable electricity based on commercially available technology offer a cost effective and low risk way to dramatically cut emissions in the electricity sector.     

韩国氢经济发展规划

为了应对气候变化,可再生能源在全球方兴未艾。目前,韩国正致力于发展氢能源领域。为创建氢经济发展生态系统,重点是增加氢动力汽车的生产和使用,构建制氢和储运全流程,扩大燃料电池的生产。政府的愿景计划得到了工业企业的大力支持,其中,HyNet联盟计划在2022年前兴建100座加氢站,现代汽车集团宣布“FCEV愿景2030”计划,到2030年投资7.6万亿韩元用于燃料电池系统研发及产能的扩张;POSCO集团计划到2050年建立500万t氢生产体制。如果相关计划顺利实施,预计到2040年,氢气将占到韩国国内能源消耗的5%,经济将增长43万亿韩元,同时创造42万个就业岗位,并大幅减少细颗粒物和温室气体排放。     

Wind power in China : Current status and implications for the international community

China has world class wind resources and a future need for electricity to justify large-scale grid connected wind power development. It is also the second largest emitter of CO₂ after the United States, and has seven of the ten most polluted cities in the world [1]. The Chinese Government encourages renewable energy development to reduce the country's reliance on coal and its consequential environmental impacts. Despite this, in 1998 70% of China's electricity was generated by coal-fired power stations, with hydropower generating 23%, oil 6%, and nuclear 1% [2]. Another impetus behind Chinese wind power development is the opportunity to compete in a highly technical and expanding industry [3], with one target that has been mentioned set at 10 % of the global wind power market within the next 20 to 30 years [4]. For environmental and commercial reasons, the Chinese wind power market is not one to be ignored. Carol-Ann Brown, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford describes the current conditions for commercialising wind power in China and the implications for the international community.     

Diverting indirect subsidies from the nuclear industry to the photovoltaic industry: Energy and financial returns

Nuclear power and solar photovoltaic energy conversion often compete for policy support that governs economic viability. This paper compares current subsidization of the nuclear industry with providing equivalent support to manufacturing photovoltaic modules. Current U.S. indirect nuclear insurance subsidies are reviewed and the power, energy and financial outcomes of this indirect subsidy are compared to equivalent amounts for indirect subsidies (loan guarantees) for photovoltaic manufacturing using a model that holds economic values constant for clarity. The preliminary analysis indicates that if only this one relatively ignored indirect subsidy for nuclear power was diverted to photovoltaic manufacturing, it would result in more installed power and more energy produced by mid-century. By 2110 cumulative electricity output of solar would provide an additional 48,600 TWh over nuclear worth $5.3 trillion. The results clearly show that not only does the indirect insurance liability subsidy play a significant factor for nuclear industry, but also how the transfer of such an indirect subsidy from the nuclear to photovoltaic industry would result in more energy over the life cycle of the technologies.     

Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States

Renewable energy resources have historically played a small role for electricity generation in the US. However, concerns such as security of energy supply, limitations and price fluctuations of fossil fuels, and threats of climate changes have encouraged US policy makers to think and debate about diversification strategy in the energy supply and promotion of renewables. The current paper discusses the role of renewable portfolio in the US energy action plan during 2010–2030. A system dynamics model is constructed to evaluate different costs of renewable energy utilization by 2030. Results show that while renewables will create a market with near 10 billion $ worth (in the costs level) in 2030, the total value of renewable energy promotion and utilization in the US will be more than 170 billion $(in the costs level) during 2010–2030.     

Canadian remote community power generation: How reformer and fuel cell systems compare with diesel generators

More than three quarters of Canadian remote communities rely solely on diesel generators for electricity generation. The diesel dependency of remote communities has inflated local per capita greenhouse gas emissions and resulted in rising and inconsistent electricity prices that have made community viability reliant on government subsidies. As the diesel generators approach the end of their lifespan replacement, technologies must be considered that will help transition Canadian remote communities from diesel to renewables. Replacing diesel generators with steam reformer and solid oxide fuel cell systems would allow for more efficient diesel generation and would benefit the future implementation of renewable power. A model was generated in Honeywell's UniSim Design Suite to simulate the performance of a diesel fed steam reformer and solid oxide fuel cell system. System operating parameters in the model were optimized to minimize the expected payback period. The system model outputs were compared with expected diesel generator performance for a test case remote community. The test community demonstrated that replacing diesel generators with the proposed steam reformer and solid oxide fuel cell system would result in annual net efficiency improvements of 32%. The efficiency improvement could potentially translate to reductions in carbon dioxide equivalents of over 258 kt and 20‐year savings of over $450 million if all diesel‐reliant Canadian remote communities switched to steam reformer and solid oxide fuel cell systems. In addition to immediate environmental and economic savings, the improved low load performance of the reformer and fuel cell system would allow for the future integration of renewable energy to create highly efficient diesel‐renewable hybrid power plants.     

An integrated scenario analysis for future zero‐carbon energy system

An integrated scenario analysis methodology has been proposed for zero‐carbon energy system in perspectives of social‐economy, environment and technology. By using the methodology, service demands in all sectors were estimated based on social‐economic data, and then the best technology and energy mixes were obtained to meet the service demands. The methodology was applied to Japan toward zero‐carbon energy system out to the year of 2100, and three different scenarios of nuclear power development are considered in light of the Fukushima accident: (i) no further introduction of nuclear, (ii) fixed portion and (iii) no limit of nuclear. The results show that, zero‐carbon energy scenario can be attained in the year 2100 when electricity will supply 75% of total energy consumption, and three power generation scenarios were proposed, 30% renewable and 70% gas‐carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Scenario 1, respective one‐third nuclear, renewable and gas‐CCS in Scenario 2, and 60% nuclear power, 20% renewable and 10% gas‐CCS in Scenario 3. Finally, Scenario 2 is rated as the most balanced scenario by putting emphasis on the availability of diversified power source, considering the inter‐comparison of the three scenarios from the four aspects of cost, CO₂ emission, risk and diversity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The solar revolution: Micropower and security in the changing world

As society revises definitions of security in the wake of the attach on America, one potential scenario/plan leaps out. The modern renewable energy industry could in principle build a world with much reduced dependence on oil, devoid of nuclear power stations. Such a world would dismantle many security threats. The oil-independent world would be far less prone to the spawning of terrorists in the first place, not to mention the recessions that tend to follow oil price shocks. The nuclear-free world would deprive terrorists of an entire category of uniquely dangerous and therefore attractive targets to attack (fly planes into or steal plutonium from). Jeremy Leggett, Solar Century, UK delivers his vision of the future and the key role that renewables will undoubtedly play.     

A nuclear-powered North Africa: Just a desert mirage or is there something on the horizon?

All of the North African countries have plans to develop nuclear power. If successful, nuclear energy could supply up to 9–15% of all electricity consumption in the region by 2030. How realistic are these plans and under what conditions can they be implemented? This paper seeks to answer this question by analyzing the motivations and capacities for deploying nuclear energy in the five North African countries by examining both regional and national factors. These factors are compared to similar characteristics of the countries with existing nuclear power programs using a series of quantitative indicators. While all five countries have strong motivations to develop nuclear power, which result from the high growth rates in demand for electricity and energy security concerns, their financial and institutional capacities to deploy nuclear energy vary and are generally lower than in those countries which already operate nuclear power plants. Most likely, North Africa will need to rely on external assistance to implement its nuclear energy plans. The article identifies three scenarios of nuclear power development from the interplay between internal and external factors, particularly the success of renewable energy projects and the ability to attract international investment in nuclear power.     

中国及世界一次能源消费结构现状分析

根据《2012年BP世界能源统计年鉴》的数据,按照能源种类,分析研究了世界和中国的石油、天然气、煤炭等传统一次能源消费情况,同时对核能、水电、可再生能源的消费量进行了统计分析.通过分析比较,对中国能源消费趋势作出了预测.预计到2030年,中国能源消费占世界能源总消费量的比重将上升至27%.为了缓解中国目前巨大的能源和环境压力,提出了几点建议,包括:研究煤炭的清洁利用技术,开发非常规油气资源和发展可再生能源.