世界小麦生产与消费大势分析

近期世界小麦、玉米等谷物价格纷纷上扬，人们将直接原因归究于生物乙醇增产，从而导致原料玉米价格飙升。但原因并非仅此一项。世界谷物价格受多方面原因的制约，世界谷物交易具有极大的风险性。下面仅就粮油加工业关心的小麦、玉米近十年来的生产、消费资料变化情况做一总体大势分析。     

六月全球粮食市场要闻

<正>美国乙醇产量创下历史最高并提振玉米价格。美国乙醇产量大幅提高,创下历史最高纪录,因为工厂加快生产,准备应对需求季节性增长。而玉米价格疲软,国际原油价格走强,使得乙醇生产利润丰厚。据美国能源信息署(EIA)发布的报告显示,截止到6月13日的一周里,美国乙醇日均产量为97.2万桶,比一周前提高了2.8万桶。这是四年前有纪录以来的最高水平。考虑到玉米市场疲软以及汽油价格走强,乙醇产量增长也在预期之内。玉米是乙醇生产的主要原料。汽油价格     

世界小麦生产与消费大势分析

近期世界小麦、玉米等谷物价格纷纷上扬,人们将直接原因归究于生物乙醇增产,从而导致原料玉米价格飙升.但原因并非仅此一项.世界谷物价格受多方面原因的制约,世界谷物交易具有极大的风险性.下面仅就粮油加工业关心的小麦、玉米近十年来的生产、消费资料变化情况做一总体大势分析.     

世界生物燃料生产和消费(下)

叙述了欧盟、德国、英国、法国和西班牙的生物柴油生产情况和原料及中国的乙醇工业。阐述了美国的乙醇工业和玉米制作乙醇方法、玉米用量、乙醇产量、乙醇供应和贸易、再生燃料标准和管理以及乙醇工业副产品DDGS的产量、用途和销售。介绍了美国燃料和食品会议讨论情况。     

世界生物燃料生产和消费(上)

叙述了欧盟、德国、英国、法国和西班牙的生物柴油生产情况和原料及中国的乙醇工业。阐述了美国的乙醇工业和玉米制作乙醇方法、玉米用量、乙醇产量、乙醇供应和贸易、再生燃料标准和管理以及乙醇工业副产品DDGS的产量、用途和销售。介绍了美国燃料和食品会议讨论情况。     

生物能源发展对全球粮食及农业生产和贸易的影响

生物能源作为一种可持续利用的能源已经引起了世界范围广泛的重视。本文综述了世界生物能源的现状及国际趋势,分析了发展生物能源可能对全球粮食及农产品贸易的影响,以及对能源作物价格进而对能源作物生产的影响,在此基础上对我国粮食安全战略提出了相关的政策建议。     

美国新能源法案将加大玉米需求

目前,美国国会以压倒性票数通过修改后的新能源法案,该法案鼓励大幅增加生物燃料乙醇的使用量,这意味着农民将因此受惠。美国主要是以玉米为原料生产乙醇,玉米产量的20％用于生产燃料乙醇。市场分析师认为,全球粮食价格上涨源头之一在美国,由于其调整了燃料乙醇政策,大幅度减少了世界市场的粮食供给,产生了“价格效应”和“替代效应”,造成食品价格上涨和经济波动。     

美国生物燃料乙醇生产近况

生物燃料乙醇生产原料可以是玉米、高梁、小麦、大麦、甘蔗、甜菜和土豆等,另外纤维质原料如城市垃圾、甘蔗渣、小树干、木片等都可用来生产生物燃料乙醇,但这些应用还没有商业化.美国生产生物燃料乙醇基本上采用玉米,也利用一部分高梁,美国生物燃料乙醇工业正在以前所未有的速度发展.     

印度限制玉米出口

为了控制国内市场的谷物和家禽等农产品价格的上涨,从7月4日开始到今年10月15日,印度禁止玉米出口。 尽管印度去年玉米大丰收,但今年由于通货膨胀,再加上美国中西部地区发生洪涝灾害,对印度玉米需求旺盛,目前,印度出口商已经签订了300万吨玉米出口合同,推动印度国内玉米价格大幅上涨。     

12月份美国粮油供需行情报

正玉米:本月预计2018/2019年美国玉米用于加工乙醇的数量减少,进口量减少,期末库存增加。根据截止到目前的贸易情况,预计进口量下调。玉米用于加工乙醇的数量下调5000万蒲式耳至56亿蒲式耳。根据能源信息中心11月数据显示,用于加工乙醇的玉米数量在9～11月下滑,这是自2012年以来的第一次下滑,期末库存量较上月上调4500万蒲式耳。季节平均玉米价格中间值持平于3.6美元/蒲式耳,上下限分别缩小5     

美国大豆生产分析及展望

大豆作为美国的主要农作物之一,在美国农业经济和国际农产品贸易中占有重要地位。文章从美国大豆生产概况入手,分析了美国大豆种植面积、单产和总产量的变化以及对大豆的补贴情况,总结了美国大豆总产量、总产值以及价格等的变化趋势,介绍了近期气候条件等因素对美国大豆生产的影响;依据气候条件及单产等因素,估算了2011年美国大豆单产和总产;并对未来一段时期美国大豆的生产前景进行展望。     

Corn ethanol production, food exports, and indirect land use change

The approximately 100 million tonne per year increase in the use of corn to produce ethanol in the U.S. over the past 10 years, and projections of greater future use, have raised concerns that reduced exports of corn (and other agricultural products) and higher commodity prices would lead to land-use changes and, consequently, negative environmental impacts in other countries. The concerns have been driven by agricultural and trade models, which project that large-scale corn ethanol production leads to substantial decreases in food exports, increases in food prices, and greater deforestation globally. Over the past decade, the increased use of corn for ethanol has been largely matched by the increased corn harvest attributable mainly to increased yields. U.S. exports of corn, wheat, soybeans, pork, chicken, and beef either increased or remained unchanged. Exports of distillers' dry grains (DDG, a coproduct of ethanol production and a valuable animal feed) increased by more than an order of magnitude to 9 million tonnes in 2010. Increased biofuel production may lead to intensification (higher yields) and extensification (more land) of agricultural activities. Intensification and extensification have opposite impacts on land use change. We highlight the lack of information concerning the magnitude of intensification effects and the associated large uncertainties in assessments of the indirect land use change associated with corn ethanol.     

部分国家玉米质量标准主要指标的比较与分析

通过对APEC区域中的中国、美国、澳大利亚和加拿大四个经济体的玉米质量标准主要指标的对比,结合实际样品的检测结果分析,以期为国际玉米贸易标准的互联互通提供参考。这四个国家的玉米质量标准均以容重、杂质和不完善粒(损伤粒)作为玉米定等作价的主要指标,在指标限量设置上,充分考虑了本国玉米流通的特性,立足于自身玉米生产、储存和贸易实践,指标体系带有各自鲜明的特点;玉米容重、不完善粒、杂质等指标的定义、测定仪器、测定方法和质量要求均存在一定差异,相同样品使用不同标准检测和判定时,质量结果和质量等级存在差异,结果之间缺乏可比性。建议加强国际同行沟通与协调,统一术语和定义、检测仪器、检测方法等,以在国际玉米贸易和流通过程中,能够提高贸易效率,减少贸易成本,促进玉米贸易便利化。     

Production of Grain Whisky and Ethanol from Wheat,Maize and Other Cereals

Wheat replaced maize as the main cereal raw material for Scotch grain whisky production 20 years ago. However, other cereals might also have potential for use in grain distilleries and ethanol production. Studies of the properties of wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, showed that they had good potential for grain distilling and ethanol production at comparable nitrogen levels, and had physiological processing characteristics within the range accepted for wheat or maize. Rapid‐Visco Analysis (RVA) studies of low and high nitrogen wheat confirmed that, as well as influencing the amount of alcohol produced, the total nitrogen content of the grain had a strong influence on its processing characteristics. In contrast, the alcohol yield potential of maize, sorghum and millet appeared to be largely unaffected by the grain nitrogen levels. The study shows that, while it is possible for wheat to produce similar alcohol levels to those previously associated with maize, cereals other than wheat can potentially be used without detriment to alcohol yield or processing performance. These could be possible long term alternatives, if the economic viability of wheat was to change. The extracted cereal starches also showed significant differences from the original cereals, which had important implications for successful processing, both in terms of cereal selection as well as cooking and fermentation performance.     

中国大豆工业发展战略与全球合作

根据经济全球化进程加快和贸易自由化趋势增强的国际新环境，对我国大豆工业在WTO技术市场竞争格局中所处的位置和挑战，通过三番五次上和调查了解，认为中国大豆工业如想尽快地摆脱困境，步入快车道迅速发展，应采取振兴民族工业特色大豆工业，着力促成传统产业与新兴产业的完美结合；构建农工贸一体化综合大豆产业，彻底改变产、加、销分割与脱节局面；扩建大规模集约式大豆工业，充分发挥龙头企业示范与推广作用；推进引进消化吸收创新大豆工业；全面提高大豆工业工艺与管理水平的发展战略。同时，在新产品研发和开拓领域、降低能材消耗和包装保鲜及社会团体组织建设与软技术配套三个方面寻求和加强与国际间的作用合作，通过战略实施和项目运作，创建与国际接轨的、具有中国特色的和推动高效农业发展的大豆工业。     

Influence of medium and physical disturbances during rearing on development and numbers of Sitophilus progeny

Four Sitophilus populations (Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky from Mexico, S. zeamais from Arkansas, U.S.A., Sitophilus oryzae L., and Sitophilus granarius L.) were studied. Hard red winter wheat, sorghum, and maize were used to determine effects of rearing media on progeny production of insects from the four populations.Mechanically disturbing infested samples to remove newly-emerged adult weevils every 48 hr reduced numbers of progeny surviving to the adult stage, especially for Arkansas S. zeamais and S. granarius reared in any of the three grains.With one exception, reproduction for all populations in all three grains was highest when parents were reared in wheat; other differences are discussed. Also, progeny developmental periods for all four populations were shortest when parents were reared in wheat. Progeny of all four populations had the longest developmental periods when reared in maize regardless of the medium in which their parents were reared.In 250 g samples of wheat, and 125 g samples of sorghum, 50 parent S. oryzae produced statistically as many progeny as in 500 g and 625 g samples of wheat and 250, 500, and 625 g samples of sorghum, respectively. In maize, 625 g samples produced significantly more progeny than 500 g samples.Sex ratios of progeny from each grain were 1:1, except that females of S. oryzae reared in maize outnumbered males.     

Influence of grain type on the susceptibility of different Sitophilus oryzae (L.) populations, obtained from different rearing media, to three diatomaceous earth formulations

Bioassays were carried out to assess whether the commodity, from which adults of the rice weevil Sitophilus oryzae emerged, influences the insecticidal efficacy of three diatomaceous earth (DE) formulations: Protect-It™, PyriSec^® and DEBBM. Protect-It™ is a DE formulation that contains 10% silica gel, while PyriSec^® and DEBBM are enhanced DEs that contain natural pyrethrum and the plant extract bitterbarkomycin, respectively. The S. oryzae populations tested were reared on wheat, barley or maize and the susceptibility of each to the DE formulations was assessed on all three commodities. The DE application doses were: 500 ppm for Protect-It™ and PyriSec^®; 150 and 75 ppm for DEBBM. Mortality of S. oryzae adults was counted 7 and 14 d after their exposure on the treated commodities. Bioassays were carried out at 25 °C and 55% r.h. Barley-reared S. oryzae were the most tolerant of all formulations and treated commodities, whereas maize-reared were the most susceptible ones. DE effectiveness was always lower in maize than in wheat or barley irrespective of the commodity from which the populations were obtained. Furthermore, Protect-It™ and PyriSec^® were more effective than DEBBM in wheat or barley, but not in maize.     

中国小麦中长期供需趋势分析及建议

基于中国小麦产需现状,综合考虑未来经济发展、人口增长、农业政策、科技创新以及国际市场等因素,运用中国农产品监测预警系统模型（CAMES）,对未来10年中国小麦生产、消费、贸易、价格等形势做出了展望分析,并基于未来小麦市场面临的不确定性因素,提出了相关建议。     

高含量己糖玉米芯纤维素酶解液发酵产酒精的研究

将玉米芯粉碎成1～2cm3的颗粒,15g/100mL硫酸喷雾浸润,萃取脱去其中戊糖后进行三级逆向酶解和萃取工艺,得到质量浓度为10.26g/100mL的己糖水解液。利用酒精酵母进行此高质量浓度的己糖酶解液进行发酵,以酒精产率为响应值,对MgSO4、KH2PO4、CaCl2的添加量,以及豆粕水解液、麸皮水解液、酵母泥添加量,共6个影响因素进行Plackett-Burman试验设计,优化其发酵条件。结果表明：Plackett-Burman试验确定MgSO4、KH2PO4和豆粕水解液为显著影响因素,经最陡爬坡和中心组合试验得到得到MgSO4 0.045g/100mL、KH2PO4 0.135g/100mL、豆粕水解液7.34g/100mL,在此条件下时发酵结果最佳,实际酒精产率为88.64g/L。     

Embodied environmental emissions in U.S. international trade, 1997-2004

Significant recent attention has been given to quantifying the environmental impacts of international trade. However, the United States, despite being the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and having large recent growth in international trade, has seen little analysis. This work uses a multi-country input-output model of the U.S. and its seven largest trading partners (Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, the UK, and Korea) to analyze the environmental effects of changes to U.S. trade structure and volume from 1997 to 2004. It is shown that increased import volume and shifting trade patterns during this time period led to a large increase in the U.S.' embodied emissions in trade (EET) for CO2, SO2, and NO(x). Methodological uncertainties, especially related to uncertainties of international currency conversion, lead to large differences in estimation of the total EET, but we estimate that the overall embodied CO2 in U.S. imports has grown from between 0.5 and 0.8 Gt of CO2 in 1997 to between 0.8 and 1.8 Gt of CO2 in 2004, representing between 9-14% and 13-30% of U.S. (2-4% to 3-7% of global) CO2 emissions in 1997 and 2004, respectively.