End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention.This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%).     

Wood fuel supply,costs and home consumption in Lithuania

This paper examines the possibilities of increasing the use of wood from private forests in Lithuania for bioenergy purposes. Potential wood fuel supply and consumption were investigated using a literature review and analysis of statistical data. Costs of wood chips production were calculated applying economic simulation. The analysis showed that 0.6 Mm³ (1.2 TWh) of firewood is produced and about 0.3 Mm³ (0.6 TWh) of forest logging residues could be used annually for fuel in private forests. The available volume will increase in coming decades. In total, Lithuanian households had increased wood fuel consumption by five times during 10 years and exceeded 2.3 Mm³ (4.6 TWh) in 2003. Firewood production for home consumption is one of the most important forest owners’ objectives.The cost of forest chips varied from 19 to 36 euro m⁻³ in pre-commercial thinnings and from 20 to 28 euro m⁻³ in final thinnings. The lack of specific policies supporting the use of natural resources is causing a lack of incentive to increase the use of local fuels.     

The effect of CO2 emission trade on the wood fuel market in Finland

In this study, the effect of emission trade on the development of the wood fuel market and on the balance of the demand and supply of wood fuels in Finland was evaluated. The demand for wood fuels was estimated to double by the year 2010 to almost 50 TWh, of which 17 TWh can be forest chips. In 2010, the supply potential of by-products was estimated to be 28 TWh, of which 11 TWh was marketable outside the internal use of the forest industry. Correspondingly, the theoretical potential of forest chips was estimated to be 51 TWh and the techno-economical potential 24 TWh, which made up the potential market supply. As a result of the regional optimization model, the energy use of wood fuels was 33 TWh, which was 68% of the potential demand in the emission trade situation. Regionally, the potential demand for wood fuels for energy use was higher than the supply in all provinces.     

Solar water heating potential in South Africa in dynamic energy market conditions

This paper is an attempt to determine the potential for solar water heating (SWH) in South Africa and the prospects for its implementation between 2010 and 2030. It outlines the energy market conditions, the energy requirements related to residential and commercial water heating in the country and the solar water heating market dynamics and challenges. It was estimated that 98% of the potential is in the residential sector and the rest in the commercial sector. The total thermal demand for 20 years for water heating was estimated to 2.2 EJ. A ‘Moderate SWH implementation’ will provide 0.83 EJ of clean energy until 2030 and estimated cost savings of 231 billion rand. For an ‘Accelerated SWH implementation’ these figures are 1.3 EJ and 369 billion rand. The estimated accumulated reduction of CO₂ emissions due to SWH can be as high as 297 Mt. The increased affordability of residential hot water due to SWH is an important social factor and solar water heating has a strong social effect.     

Estimates of oil and natural gas (NG) reserves in Egypt

Egypt depends mainly on oil and NG for 92% of total commercial energy needs. Reserve estimates are largely based on speculations. We give logistics functions for oil and NG production and consumption rates and reserves. An energy-flow diagram has been constructed for Egypt. Sectorial energy consumptions are also given. Estimates of reserves from logistic curves show that crude oil would last for about 24 yr and that NG will last for 150 yr with present production rates.     

The potential of solar heat for industrial processes in Germany

Industry represents a very promising application area for solar thermal technology, since it accounts for 27% of the total final energy consumption in Germany and uses 74% of its energy consumption as thermal energy. In order to develop this application area, it is necessary to know which industrial sectors have the highest potential and which processes within these sectors are most suitable for the integration of solar heat. For this paper the industrial heat consumption in Germany was analyzed, which leads to the selection of the most promising sectors within industry. Furthermore, the quantitative potential for Germany in total and for 11 selected sectors, that were identified to be most promising for the use of solar heat, was calculated. These are Chemicals, Food and beverages, Motor vehicles, Paper, Fabricated metal, Machinery and equipment, Rubber and plastic, Electrical equipment, Textiles, Printing and Wood. These sectors are analyzed to identify suitable processes for the integration of solar heat. In total the theoretical potential of solar heat for industrial processes below 300 °C in Germany accounts for 134 TWh per year, the technical potential being 16 TWh per year or 3.4% of the overall industrial heat demand. This is the highest share of the European potential of 72 TWh per year. The results of this study facilitate the prioritized application of solar thermal energy in industrial sectors and processes for Germany and other countries.     

The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?

Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.     

Understanding energy systems change in Canada: 1. Decomposition of total energy intensity

Between 1995 and 2010, the total energy intensity (E/GDP, PJ/Gross Domestic Product in 2002$) of the Canadian economy declined by 23% or − 2.64 MJ/$. To understand why, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMD-I) method was used to decompose a large body of government statistical data supporting the observed E/GDP decline. The analysis shows that (a) 48% (1.27 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an inter-sector structural change in the economy (i.e. an increased contribution to the total GDP of the low energy-using commercial and institutional sector compared with the high energy-using manufacturing and heavy industry sectors); (b) 24% (0.62 MJ/$) was attributed to the impact of the Canadian GDP growing faster than population; (c) 22% (0.58 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an overall decrease in business energy intensity. A deeper analysis of business sectors shows a positive impact of 0.4 MJ/$ from increased energy intensity in the oil and gas sector, offset by a 0.98 MJ/$ decline due to energy intensity declines in the other business sectors; (d) 6.3% (0.17 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an improvement in the energy intensity of households, mostly from residential energy use rather than personal transportation energy use. These results provide insights for policy makers regarding those aspects of the Canadian economy that contribute to, or work against, efforts to transform energy systems toward sustainability.     

Prospects of renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has been facing a power crisis for about a decade, mainly because of inadequate power generation capacity compared with demand and the ageing infrastructure of many existing power generation facilities. Only 20% of the total population are connected to grid electricity—25% in urban areas and a mere 10% in rural areas where 80% of the total population resides. Currently, most power plants in Bangladesh (representing 84.5% of the total installed capacity) use natural gas—the main commercial primary energy source, with limited national reserves—as a fuel. Electricity supply to low-load rural and remote areas is characterised by high transmission and distribution costs and transmission losses, and heavily subsidised pricing.Renewable energy sources in Bangladesh, particularly biomass, can play a major role to meet electricity demands in the rural and remote areas of the country. The current study indicates that in 2003, the national total generation and recovery rates of biomass in Bangladesh were 148.983 and 86.276 Mtonne, respectively. In energy term, the national annual amount of the recoverable biomass is equivalent to 312.613 TWh. Considering the present national consumption of biomass, total available biomass resources potential for electricity generation vary from 183.865 to 223.794 TWh. Biomass energy potential in the individual districts of the country has been estimated for the planning small- to medium-scale biomass-to-electricity plants.     

Reconciling self-sufficiency and renewable energy targets in a hydro dominated system: The view from British Columbia

British Columbia's energy policy is at a crossroads; the province has set a goal of electricity self-sufficiency, a 93% renewable portfolio standard and a natural gas development strategy that could increase electricity consumption by 21 TWh to 33 TWh. To ascertain the BC's supply position, a mathematical programming model of the physical workings of BC's hydroelectric generating system is developed, with head heights at the two dominant power stations treated as variable. Using historical water inflow and reservoir level data, the model is used to investigate whether BC is capable of meeting its self-sufficiency goals under various water supply and electricity demand scenarios.     

Residential building envelope heat gain and cooling energy requirements

We present the energy use situation in Hong Kong from 1979 to 2001. The primary energy requirement (PER) nearly tripled during the 23-year period, rising from 195,405 TJ to 572,684 TJ. Most of the PER was used for electricity generation, and the electricity use in residential buildings rose from 7556 TJ (2099 GWh) to 32,799 TJ (9111 GWh), an increase of 334%. Air-conditioning accounted for about 40% of the total residential sector electricity consumption. A total of 144 buildings completed in the month of June during 1992–2001 were surveyed. Energy performance of the building envelopes was investigated in terms of the overall thermal transfer value (OTTV). To develop the appropriated parameters used in OTTV calculation, long-term measured weather data such as ambient temperature (1960–2001), horizontal global solar radiation (1992–2001) and global solar radiation on vertical surfaces (1996–2001) were examined. The OTTV found varied from 27 to 44 W/m² with a mean value of 37.7  W/m². Building energy simulation technique using DOE-2.1E was employed to determine the cooling requirements and hence electricity use for building envelope designs with different OTTVs. It was found that cooling loads and electricity use could be expressed in terms of a simple two-parameter linear regression equation involving OTTV.     

Assessing the sustainability of the UK society using thermodynamic concepts: Part 2

By building on the first part of our analysis, this second part attempts to provide a further understanding of the UK society's metabolism, its impact and offer policy suggestions that could promote a shift towards sustainability. The methodologies employed in this second part include Exergy Analysis (EA) and Extended Exergy Analysis (EEA). Exergy inputs and outputs amounted to 17423.9 and 11888.7 PJ, respectively, with energy carries, mainly fossil fuels, being both the predominant inputs (15597.1 PJ) and outputs (5147.1 PJ). Exergy consumption and efficiency for various economic sectors and subsectors have been calculated with the residential and service sector showing the lowest exergy conversion efficiencies (11.2% and 12.3%, respectively) while certain industrial subsectors, such as the aluminium and iron/steel industries showed the highest exergy conversion factors (67.0 and 62.1%). Extended exergy efficiencies were somewhat different owing to the different calculation procedure. Extended exergy efficiencies were 91.4% for the extraction sector, 38.9% for the conversion sector, 49.1% for the agriculture sector, 31.5% for the transportation sector, 38.6% for the industrial sector and 80.0% for the tertiary sector.     

Technical and economic assessment of grid-independent hybrid photovoltaic–diesel–battery power systems for commercial loads in desert environments

Solar photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system technology is a hot topic for R&D since it promises lot of challenges and opportunities for developed and developing countries. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) being endowed with fairly high degree of solar radiation is a potential candidate for deployment of PV systems for power generation. Literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in KSA consume an estimated 10–45% of the total electric energy generated. In the present study, solar radiation data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) have been analyzed to assess the techno-economic viability of utilizing hybrid PV–diesel–battery power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical commercial building (with annual electrical energy demand of 620,000 kW h). The monthly average daily solar global radiation ranges from 3.61 to 7.96 kW h/m². NREL's HOMER software has been used to carry out the techno-economic viability. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 80 kWp PV system together with 175 kW diesel system and a battery storage of 3 h of autonomy (equivalent to 3 h of average load), the PV penetration is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, US$/kW h) from the above hybrid system has been found to be 0.149 $/kW h (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/L). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the operational hours of diesel generators decrease with increase in PV capacity. The investigation also examines the effect of PV/battery penetration on COE, operational hours of diesel gensets for a given hybrid system. Emphasis has also been placed on unmet load, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (for different scenarios such as PV–diesel without storage, PV–diesel with storage, as compared to diesel-only situation), cost of PV–diesel–battery systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Consequences of a carbon tax on household electricity use and cost,carbon emissions,and economics of household solar and wind

The study was conducted to determine the consequences of a carbon tax, equal to an estimated social cost of carbon of $37.2/Mg, on household electricity cost, and to determine if a carbon tax would be sufficient to incentivize households to install either a grid-tied solar or wind system. U.S. Department of Energy hourly residential profiles for five locations, 20 years of hourly weather data, prevailing electricity pricing rate schedules, and purchase prices and solar panel and wind turbine power output response functions, were used to address the objectives. Two commercially available household solar panels (4 kW, 12 kW), two wind turbines (6 kW, 12 kW), and two price rate structures (traditional meter, smart meter) were considered. Averaged across the five households, the carbon tax is expected to reduce annual consumption by 4.4% (552 kWh/year) for traditional meter households and by 4.9% (611 kWh/year) for households charged smart meter rates. The carbon tax increases electricity cost by 19% ($202/year). For a household cost of $202/year the carbon tax is expected to reduce social costs by $11. Annual carbon tax collections of $234/household are expected. Adding the carbon tax was found to be insufficient to incentivize households to install either a solar panel or wind turbine system. Installation of a 4 kW solar system would increase the annual cost by $1546 (247%) and decrease CO₂ emissions by 38% (2526 kg) valued at $94/household. The consequence of a carbon tax would depend largely on how the proceeds of the tax are used.     

Influence of altitude on the height of blue cone in a premixed flame

For economic and environmental reasons natural gas begins to take an important participation as an energy source in the residential sector of Latin American cities placed at high altitudes: La Paz (3719 m), Santa Fe de Bogotá (2600 m), Mexico City (2240 m), Manizales (2150 m), Medellín (1550 m), Cali (1000 m) and others.One of the most widely used natural gas systems in the residential sector is the partially aerated burner. The height of the blue cone in a premixed flame increases as the altitude above sea level becomes greater. In this work this behavior is determined experimentally, for this purpose tests were carried out in colombian location placed at 40, 550, 1220, 2040 and 2550 m above sea level.In every place of tests three replicas were performed, keeping constant the following variables: chemical composition of natural gas, with a methane content of 98%, gas pressure discharge at the injector at 20 mbar, injector diameter in 1.35 mm, mixer geometry and port diameter in 17 mm. The images of the blue cone were captured with a Pixera digital camera for images registration. Images were stored to determine later, through the software Matrox Inspector for images analysis, the height of the blue cone in each experiment for the different altitudes.It was found that the height of the blue cone is increased in 1.49 ± 0.12 mm by each 304 m (1000 feet) rise in altitude.     

Wind energy as a potential generation source at Ras Benas,Egypt

Analysis of the wind characteristics in Ras Benas city located on the east coast of Red Sea in Egypt using measured data (wind, pressure and temperature) and Weibull function were made.Statistical analysis model to evaluate the wind energy potential was introduced. According to the power calculations done for the site, the annual mean wind density is 315 kW/m² at a height of 70 m above ground level. This station has a huge wind energy potential for electricity generation, especially during spring and summer seasons, comparing with some European countries.In addition, the monthly wind turbine efficiency parameter (η_monthly) has been calculated by using a commercial wind turbine 1 MW with 70 m hub height to help designers and users in evaluating the potentialities and choosing the suitable wind turbine for the considered site. The use of wind turbine with capacity greater than 1000 kW at this station was recommended.Ras Benas station was selected to install 30 MW-wind farm consists of 20 commercial wind turbines (Nordex S 77) with hub heights and Rotor diameter were 100 and 77 m, respectively. This site has annual wind speed more than 9.8 m/s at 100 m height and enough area to locate these turbines.The estimated energy production using WASP Program of these wind farm was 130 GWh/year. Furthermore, the production costs was found 1.3€ cent/kWh, which is a competition price at the wind energy world market.     

Factors driving the development of forest energy in Finland

Renewable energy sources play an important role in the Finnish energy and climate strategies which are implemented partly through the Action Plan for Renewable Energy Sources. Enhancement of wood energy plays a key role in the plan. A special emphasis is given to forest chips produced from small-sized trees from early thinnings and above-ground and below-ground residual biomass from regeneration cuttings. The production goal of forest chips is 5 million m³ solid (10 TWh) in 2010. The use of forest chips is promoted by means of environmental taxes, financial aid for investments, and financial support for research, development and commercialization of technology. In 2002, altogether 365 heating and power plants larger than 0.4 MW used forest chips. The total consumption was 1.7 million m³, the use of small houses and farms included. The growth of use is presently about 350 000 m³ per annum, but reaching the official goal will require an annual growth of 400 000 m³ during this decade.The consumption of roundwood per capita, 15 m³ per annum, is in Finland 20 times as high as the average consumption of the EU countries, respectively. Consequently, residual forest biomass is abundantly available. The capacity of heating and power plants to use forest chips is large enough to meet the goal. However, users require competitive chip prices, good quality control of fuel and reliable supply chains, and new efficient procurement systems are being developed. The paper deals with the drivers of this development: support measures of the Government; strong support to research, development and commercialization of forest chip production from the National Technology Agency Tekes; advanced infrastructure for the procurement of timber for the forest industries; positive attitude and active participation of the forest industries; the active role of leading forest machine and boiler manufacturers, and the possibility to cofire wood and peat fuels in large fluidized bed boilers so as to secure the availability of fuel in all conditions, stabilize the moisture content of fuel and reduce the emissions from combustion.     

Decentralized/stand-alone hybrid Wind–Diesel power systems to meet residential loads of hot coastal regions

In view of rising costs, pollution and fears of exhaustion of oil and coal, governments around the world are encouraging to seek energy from renewable/sustainable energy sources such as wind. The utilization of energy from wind (since the oil embargo of the 1970s) is being widely disseminated for displacement of fossil fuel produced energy and to reduce atmospheric degradation. A system that consists of a wind turbine and Diesel genset is called a Wind–Diesel power system.The literature indicates that the commercial/residential buildings in Saudi Arabia consume an estimated 10–40% of the total electric energy generated. In the present study, the hourly mean wind-speed data of the period 1986–1997 recorded at the solar radiation and meteorological station, Dhahran (26°32′N, 50°13′E in the Eastern Coastal Region of Saudi Arabia), has been analyzed to investigate the potential of utilizing hybrid (Wind–Diesel) energy conversion systems to meet the load requirements of a hundred typical two bedroom residential buildings (with annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh). The long term monthly average wind speeds for Dhahran range from 4.2 to 6.4 m/s. The hybrid systems considered in the present case study consist of different combinations/clusters of 150 kW commercial wind machines supplemented with battery storage and Diesel back-up. The deficit energy generated by the Diesel generator (for different battery capacities) and the number of operational hours of the Diesel system to meet a specific annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh have also been presented. The evaluation of the hybrid system shows that with seven 150 kW wind energy conversion system (WECS) and one day of battery storage, the Diesel back-up system has to provide 21.6% of the load demand. Furthermore, with three days of battery storage, the Diesel back-up system has to provide 17.5% of the load demand. However, in the absence of battery storage, about 37% of the load needs to be provided by the Diesel system. The study also places emphasis on the monthly average daily energy generation from different sizes (150 kW, 250 kW, 600 kW) of wind machines to identify the optimum wind machine size from the energy production point of view. It has been noted that for a given 6 MW wind farm size (for 50 m hub height), a cluster of forty 150 kW wind machines yields about 48% more energy as compared to a cluster of ten 600 kW wind machines.     

Techno-economic evaluation of off-grid hybrid photovoltaic–diesel–battery power systems for rural electrification in Saudi Arabia—A way forward for sustainable development

The burning of depleting fossil fuels for power generation has detrimental impact on human life and climate. In view of this, renewable solar energy sources are being increasingly exploited to meet the energy needs. Moreover, solar photovoltaic (PV)–diesel hybrid system technology promises lot of opportunities in remote areas which are far from utility grid and are driven by diesel generators. Integration of PV systems with the diesel plants is being disseminated worldwide to reduce diesel fuel consumption and to minimize atmospheric pollution. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (K.S.A.) being endowed with high intensity of solar radiation, is a prospective candidate for deployment of PV systems. Also, K.S.A. has large number of remote scattered villages. The aim of this study is to analyze solar radiation data of Rafha, K.S.A., to assess the techno-economic feasibility of hybrid PV–diesel–battery power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical remote village Rawdhat Bin Habbas (RBH) with annual electrical energy demand of 15,943 MWh. Rafha is located near RBH. The monthly average daily global solar radiation ranges from 3.04 to 7.3 kWh/m². NREL's HOMER software has been used to perform the techno-economic evaluation. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system composed of 2.5 MWp capacity PV system together with 4.5 MW diesel system (three 1.5 MW units) and a battery storage of 1 h of autonomy (equivalent to 1 h of average load), the PV penetration is 27%. The cost of generating energy (COE, US$/kWh) from the above hybrid system has been found to be 0.170$/kWh (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1$/l). The study exhibits that the operational hours of diesel generators decrease with increase in PV capacity. The investigation also examines the effect of PV/battery penetration on COE, operational hours of diesel gensets. Concurrently, emphasis has been placed on: un-met load, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (for different scenarios such as: PV–diesel without storage, PV–diesel with storage, as compared to diesel-only situation), COE of different hybrid systems, etc. The decrease in carbon emissions by using the above hybrid system is about 24% as compared to the diesel-only scenario.