建筑工程评标的模糊综合排序分析

针对评标群决策特点，用三角模糊数描述定性评标指标和权重，从而集结成群体评标综合排序值。引入模糊Borda数排序和区间数优于可能度排序值，用加权法求最终排序数。实例应用证明该模型充分利用了评标人的偏好信息，使评标过程系统、全面。     

基于投影寻踪的港口泊位建设评估模糊物元模型

为解决港口泊位建设评价中宏微观指标间的不相容问题,基于可拓学中的模糊物元模型,并将投影寻踪模型引入到权重计算中,同时兼顾决策者对不同决策属性的偏好,使量化指标的赋权达到主观与客观的统一。在此基础上,建立了基于投影寻踪的港口泊位建设评估模糊物元模型。经标准化处理得到复合模糊物元矩阵,并确定优距离矩阵,利用基于决策者偏好的投影寻踪确定评价指标权重,计算各方案的欧式贴近度确定排序结果。应用该方法对港口泊位建设方案进行综合评价,验证该方法切实可行,可操作性强,同时决策者偏好因素的引入为投资决策提供了更丰富的信息。     

一种风险型多属性灰靶决策方法

针对方案值为区间灰数且属性权重未知的灰色多属性风险型决策问题,提出一种风险灰靶决策方法。首先,为保留各决策属性的风险,定义了方案的正负期望偏离靶心度和综合期望偏离靶心度;其次,充分利用风险决策矩阵信息,建立确定指标权重的优化模型,通过计算综合期望偏离靶心度对方案进行排序;最后,通过一个实例验证该模型适用于信息值为区间灰数的风险型多指标决策问题,表明了该模型的有效性和可行性。     

基于一类新的直觉模糊熵的直觉模糊多属性决策法

针对属性权重完全未知且属性值为直觉模糊数的多属性决策模型,提出了一个新的决策方法。该方法首先通过构造一类新的直觉模糊熵,然后利用该直觉模糊熵计算各个属性权重,进而提出了基于直觉模糊相似的TOPSIS决策法。为说明方法的有效性和实用性,给出了一个智能手机购买选择问题的例子进行说明。     

广义Shapley区间直觉不确定语言Choquet积分在绿色住宅投资群决策中的应用

多属性群决策作为解决多方案选择性问题的一种重要方法具有十分重要的研究意义,目前的多属性群决策方法主要存在属性评价过程中信息失真、没有注意到指标间存在交互作用以及如何科学合理地获得专家及指标权重三个问题。针对以上三个问题,文章在获取属性评价信息时,由专家用区间直觉不确定语言给出方案属性值的定性判断;考虑到属性间的交互作用,利用模糊测度及GS-IVIULCA算子来计算方案的综合评价值;专家及属性权重由信息熵与Shapley函数确定;当专家及属性权重不确定时,分别建立了专家集与属性集上的最优模糊测度模型。基于此,给出了信息不确定环境下一个全新的群决策方法。最后,通过一个绿色住宅投资群决策案例进行实证分析来验证该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于群体语义信息的会计师事务所选择研究

针对信息失称环境下会计师事务所选择过程的复杂性和不确定性,以及人类思维的模糊性,提出基于群体语义信息的会计师事务所选择方法。该方法首先建立会计师事务所的评价指标体系,然后将评价人员的语义信息转化为三角模糊数,运用广义推导有序加权平均算子(GIOWA)将评估人员给出的偏好信息与指标权重和评估人员权重集结,得出各备选方案的综合评估值,并对其进行排序,选出最优方案,最后通过算例验证了该方法的可行性。     

结构方案设计模糊多属性决策的模糊贴近度方法

结构方案设计具有典型的“软科学”决策特点,需要运用“软设计”理论和“软计算”方法进行此类问题的求解。结构方案设计的问题求解过程包括方案生成、方案评价和方案决策三个子过程。其中,结构方案的决策属于典型的多属性决策问题,决策过程中需要运用决策者的偏好信息和方案属性的不确定性信息,因此,采用传统的多准则决策理论不能对此问题进行有效的求解。为此,本文建立了结构方案设计的模糊多属性决策模型,给出了属性模糊满意度矩阵的确定方法,以有效地处理模糊信息。为了克服直接采用欧式距离确定偏好最优方案的缺点,提出了一个基于模糊贴近度的模糊多属性决策方法,并给出了具体的求解程序。以某大跨空间结构方案设计为例,说明了结构设计方案优选的决策过程。实例应用的结果表明,本文提出的方法可以有效地处理不确定性环境下结构方案的优选决策问题。     

基于FG-MCGDM的水利工程施工进度方案优化

针对水利工程施工进度的多准则群决策问题,提出了一种新的模糊灰色多准则决策模型。该模型基于模糊集理论、灰色关联分析和折衷解的理论方法,将各决策属性和决策者权重的语言变量转化为梯形模糊数;采用改进的 GRA-VIKOR方法对模糊信息群体决策问题进行求解,并对各决策者的群体效益值和个体遗憾值进行聚合;通过折衷解对施工进度方案进行排序,获得最优方案。该模型有效地避免了信息的扭曲和丢失,确保了决策信息的完备性。通过在某水利工程施工进度方案优选的案例分析与计算,证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。     

基于不确定多属性决策方法的互通式立交方案评价

在建立互通式立交方案评价指标体系的基础上,提出了一种权重信息不全、考虑决策者对决策方案偏好信息的立交方案多属性决策方法,实例应用表明,该方法既能克服以往方法主观定权的缺点,又能合理考虑立交方案比选中专家积极的主观意见,是一种适合实际应用的立交方案量化评价方法。     

基于可拓学理论的一种群体决策方法

把可拓学理论中的关联函数、合格度、优度概念引入群体决策,提出了各专家决策结果一致性评价的模型,解决了利用三角模糊数评价群体决策一致性时对模糊数必须有交集的问题,更有利于专家充分表达其真实的决策信息.最后综合考虑决策结果一致性和专家权重形成群体决策结果.算例表明该方法能更好的综合群体意见.     

A fuzzy screening model for multiple attribute decision-making

A method for the screening of multiple attribute decision-making problems is presented. The model assists the decision-maker in eliminating inferior alternatives and insignificant attributes prior to a detailed evaluation. A preliminary evaluation of the alternatives provides the information necessary for the reduction of the decision problem. The procedure calculates maximum preference factors on which the decision-maker can base his screening decisions. These factors assess the role of alternatives in the final ranking by estimating their potential to become superior to other alternatives. Since screening tasks are carried out early in decision-making, the information available is generally uncertain. Uncertainty is represented in the model using fuzzy sets. This framework permits the handling of both imprecise and precise (crisp) estimates of impacts and provides a possibil-istic assessment of the risk associated with screening decisions.     

深基坑支护方案的多属性决策分析

深基坑支护工程是一个复杂的系统工程，支护方案的决策受到技术、经济、环境以及风险等诸多因素的影响，决策的相关信息(权重和方案的指标值)有时很难精确给出，但可以用排序或区间等线性不等式形式来表示它们。为了处理这样的不完全信息下的决策问题，采用了基于数学规划的多属性决策方法，通过检验方案之间的优势关系，获得了最优支护方案，并通过实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于改进AHP法的深基坑支护方案多目标模糊决策研究

深基坑工程是一项复杂的系统工程,支护方案的决策受众多不确定、模糊因素的影响。为了处理这样不完全信息下的决策问题,采用基于模糊数学的理论与方法,建立深基坑支护方案决策的多目标、多层次优选模型,并对传统的AHP方法加以改进。实例表明,该方法用于基坑支护方案的决策是可行的、有效的。     

Multicriteria Planning of Post-Earthquake Sustainable Reconstruction

A multicriteria model is developed for analyzing the planning strategies for reducing the future social and economic costs in the area with potential natural hazard. The developed multicriteria decision-making procedure consists of generating alternatives, establishing criteria, assessment of criteria weights, and application of the compromise ranking method (VIKOR). The alternatives are the scenarios of sustainable hazard effects mitigation, generated in the form of comprehensive reconstruction plans, including the redevelopment of urban areas and infrastructures, multipurpose land use, and restrictions on building in hazardous areas. The plans have to be evaluated according to the criteria representing public safety, sustainability, social environment, natural environment, economy, culture, and politics. The multicriteria model can treat all relevant conflicting effects and impacts in their representative units. The evaluation of alternatives is implicated with imprecision (or uncertainty) of established criteria, and the fuzzy multicriteria model is developed to deal with "qualitative" (unquantifiable or linguistic) or incomplete information. The application of this model is illustrated with the post-earthquake reconstruction problem in Central Taiwan, including the restoration concerning the safe and serviceable operation of "lifeline" systems, such as electricity, water, and transportation networks, immediately after a severe earthquake.     

Fuzzy AHP approach for selecting the suitable bridge construction method

Selecting an appropriate bridge construction method is essential for the success of bridge construction projects. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method has been widely used for solving multi-criteria decision-making problems. However, the conventional AHP method is incapable of handling the uncertainty and vagueness involving the mapping of one's preference to an exact number or ratio. This paper presents a fuzzy AHP model to overcome this problem. The proposed approach employs triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and the α-cut concept to deal with the imprecision inherent to the process of subjective judgment. A case study that evaluates bridge construction methods is presented to illustrate the use of the model and to demonstrate the capability of the model.     

基于三角模糊数的输变电工程模糊综合评价

针对输变电工程风险评价中专家主观因素所占比例较高的现状,研究了主观和客观相结合的评价方法,利用网络分析法与模糊评判法构建模糊网络风险评价模型,从而对风险实施有效控制。根据输变电工程特征,分析了影响施工安全的综合因素,建立了输变电工程风险评价指标体系,并使用两两比较判断矩阵法计算风险指标权重,再利用模糊综合评判将二级指标整合,得到项目的综合风险水平。为解决模型主观偏好的弊端,构建过程加入风险维度,用三角模糊数处理决策过程中的模糊性,对模型做进一步改善。并以某输变电工程为例,验证该方法具有可行性。     

证据理论在滑坡危险性评价中的应用研究

滑坡危险性评估是一个涉及众多复杂的、不确定性因素的复杂工程,其评价方法很多,目前,各种评价方法都很难体现出滑坡各种影响因素之间的关系。本文在确定滑坡监测效果综合评估各指标的基础之上,提出了一种基于证据理论的滑坡危险性评价模型。证据理论可以避免信息不完全、数据缺乏导致模型构造的困难,同时,也将专家经验知识考虑到模型中去。本文通过某滑坡实例应用,达到了较好的评价效果,为滑坡灾害的易发区划分和防治分区提供了依据。该方法能有效实现评价模糊语言的转化,符合人的思维方式,评估结果可以较好地反映目前该滑坡监测效果的真实水平。     

基于粗糙集的多属性风险投资决策

本文根据风险投资的特点,建立了一个多属性决策问题的模型。利用奖优罚劣的转换办法初始化原始决策矩阵,又根据fuzzy相似类、变精度粗糙集和近似分类质量等转化和处理得到属性约简的信息系统,从而求出重要属性的客观权重来评价各个投资方案的优劣。最后利用属性权重完全未知且属性值为实数的多属性风险投资决策案例来验证模型的有效性。     

People's beliefs and values as determinants of housing preferences and simulated choices

The possibility to predict residential preferences and choices from people's beliefs about the effects of different housing alternatives on the attainment of a number of life values was investigated by means of a questionnaire answered by 36 Swedish adults. Housing alternatives were described to the respondents in terms of a number of attribute dimensions. Two models were tested. The first model was based on the assumption that the evaluation of a given level of a housing attribute is determined by a weighted sum of the respondent's evaluations of the life values which the attribute is believed to lead to, and that the evaluation of each housing alternative is obtained by summing this value‐fulfilment across all attributes. This model was quite successful in predicting preference ratings of the housing alternatives. When predicting simulated choices among housing alternatives, however, the second model, which did not presuppose additivity across attributes, yielded more successful predictions. For data aggregated across the whole sample of respondents, the number of housing attributes contributing to the predictions of the preferences was larger than the corresponding number for the choices. Finally, intrinsic housing attributes such as cost and size were found to be more important than location and neighbourhood attributes for both preferences and choices.