基于AHP、灰色关联法和TOPSIS的航天测控装备评估模型研究

测控装备是对航天器发射及运行过程进行跟踪、测量与控制的专用系统,具有设备种类多、地域分布广、状态参数多等特点,其性能往往难以得到快速、全面、客观的评估;针对此问题,提出了一种基于AHP层次分析法、灰色关联分析法和TOPSIS的组合模型,用于航天测控装备性能综合评估,并以某型雷达为例进行了指标量化与评估验证;研究表明,多种方法的综合运用,既能避免各自的局限性,又能充分发挥其优点,其评估过程科学、结果合理,可以有效解决测控装备难以量化、分析、评估的问题,具有较强的实用性.     

改进TOPSIS法的装备可靠性评估方法

装备的可靠性是完成遂行任务必备条件,对装备可靠性进行评估可为任务决策提供理论支持;目前关于装备可靠性评估方面的研究大多数都是基于概率统计学的,而概率统计的准确性受限于样本的大小,从而使得基于概率统计学的装备可靠性评估因装备样本的大小而产生不可避免的或大或小误差;为解决这一评估受样本大小制约的问题,引入逼近理想点(TOPSIS)法;同时,针对TOPSIS法受主观因素影响较大的问题,修定了该法评估指标权重及理想解的确定方法,并在评估结果中引入了“合格分数线”的概念,使得评估结果等级划分有了量化依据,从而体现出了客观性和科学性,然后构建了某装备基于该改进TOPSIS法的可靠性评估模型;最后,通过示例分析,利用MATLAB计算验证了本文方法的正确性,评估结果可为装备的使用者或指挥者提供决策依据。     

利用文本相似度计算的装配工作指令评估

针对现有四种装配工艺指令相似度评估方法(即词重叠、Jaccard、TF-IDF和潜在语义分析LSA)缺乏系统性量化评估的问题,提出采用十个工作指令集的45个基于文本的装配指令作为案例对现有四种文本比较方法进行分析。统计假设测试表明,Jaccard方法模拟装配工作指令的相似度高于其他三种方法至少3.75%,且对同义或多义词不敏感;而LSA方法对同义词或多义词的敏感度总体上低于其他三种方法至少6.02%,且可用于检索自由文本的装备工作指令,避免了TF-IDF方法依赖于装配工作指令数据库的弊端。故而LSA方法更适合用于装配工作指令的评估。     

基于数值分析的装备体系作战能力研究

装备体系的作战能力是部队战斗力的重要组成部分,是分析部队力量编成、评估部队完成任务能力常用的关键性指标。系统采用层次化、可组构、面向实体的数据存储结构对装备体系进行描述,基于“五力”指数指标体系和量化、聚合模型逐层计算装备单元、作战单元和装备体系的作战能力,既保持了数值分析方法使用简单、计算快速的优点,又较好地解决了不同类型武器装备之间的能力聚合和对比分析等问题,可为制定装备发展规划、构建训练模拟系统等提供基础参考数据。     

多星对舰船目标联合探测能力研究

针对多星联合对舰船目标观测活动中的探测能力问题,为提高连续探测能力,应深入研究对其量化描述方式.综合运用动态仿真,用概率论、连续马尔科夫链和蒙特卡罗法等方法对探测活动各阶段建立相应的模型,并结合数学函数提出多星联合探测能力量化指标.以某作战想定为背景,进行了仿真验证.仿真结果表明模型能够解决多星联合观测舰船目标的能力,并且研究成果对航天装备效能评估和装备体系发展规划具有一定的指导意义.     

基于ADC法装备试验多指标评估方法研究

针对军民融合装备试验评估,以模拟构建的某装备系统为研究对象,提出了基于ADC法的多指标试验评估方法。文章首先对装备试验主要评估指标进行了分析,再对ADC法特点、数学模型和参数矩阵设置进行了研究;最后以虚拟构建的某装备为例,对试验评估方法的具体运用进行详细论述,通过构建装备体系,解析体系作战逻辑模型,给出了基于ADC法作战效能评估的具体过程和方法,给出了作战适用性、体系适用性评估的具体模型和方法。文中示例重点对评估模型、过程和方法进行了详细论述,省略了过程数据和结果数据演示计算。该评估方法在多型装备试验中得到了初步的应用和检验,取得较好的效果。     

基于M-DSSE和RVM的复杂装备健康状态预测

针对故障呈现渐发特性的复杂装备健康状态预测问题,提出基于多距离形态相似度评估(M-DSSE)和相关向量机(RVM)的预测方法。在提取装备状态特征信息的基础上,采用M-DSSE方法对装备的健康状态进行评估,计算得到装备的健康指数;运用RVM回归模型对装备的健康指数进行预测,实现对装备健康趋势的预知,为最终的预知维修提供重要技术支撑。在某航空机电设备上的应用结果表明,该方法可以有效解决复杂装备健康状态评估与预测的问题,结果与实际情况相吻合。     

有干扰的控制系统故障可诊断性量化评估

故障可诊断性的量化指标在控制系统设计过程中极为重要.为此,我们提出了一种适用于线性动态系统的故障可诊断性量化评估方法.考虑到过程和观测噪声等干扰因素对评估结果正确性的影响,我们采用等价空间方法获取系统输入/输出与故障之间的解析冗余关系,将故障可诊断性评估问题转化为概率统计中多元分布的差异度判别问题.引入巴氏系数(Bhattacharyya coefficient,BC)对多元分布之间的差异度进行量化,通过严格的数学证明得到可诊断性量化指标,并给出具体评估流程.以卫星姿态控制系统为仿真算例,将本文所提评估方法应用于该系统;仿真结果表明:该方法能够在不依赖于任何诊断算法的前提下,定量分析故障诊断的难易程度.     

基于贝叶斯网络的装备保障能力评估建模研究

装备保障能力的评估能够为装备保障指挥决策提供有力支持,评估建模是进行评估的重要部分.影响保障能力的因素具有非线性、开放性和不确定性等特点,贝叶斯网络能够有效处理此类问题.该文将贝叶斯网络应用到装备保障能力评估建模,采用结构化方法,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的装备保障能力评估建模流程,分析了每个过程中需要解决的问题.通过应用案...     

浅谈运筹学在装备效能评估上的应用

本文是在新技术革命背景下,军事运筹学在装备效能评估上的应用问题进行探讨.首先明确分析运筹学在装备系统效能评估上的应用,其次分析运筹学在装备作战模拟效能评估上的应用,为运筹学在装备效能上的合理利用打下坚实的基础.     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.