Robust identification of piecewise/switching autoregressive exogenous process

A robust identification approach for a class of switching processes named PWARX (piecewise autoregressive exogenous) processes is developed in this article. It is proposed that the identification problem can be formulated and solved within the EM (expectation‐maximization) algorithm framework. However, unlike the regular EM algorithm in which the objective function of the maximization step is built upon the assumption that the noise comes from a single distribution, contaminated Gaussian distribution is utilized in the process of constructing the objective function, which effectively makes the revised EM algorithm robust to the latent outliers. Issues associated with the EM algorithm in the PWARX system identification such as sensitivity to its starting point as well as inability to accurately classify “un‐decidable” data points are examined and a solution strategy is proposed. Data sets with/without outliers are both considered and the performance is compared between the robust EM algorithm and regular EM algorithm in terms of their parameter estimation performance. Finally, a modified version of MRLP (multi‐category robust linear programming) region partition method is proposed by assigning different weights to different data points. In this way, negative influence caused by outliers could be minimized in region partitioning of PWARX systems. Simulation as well as application on a pilot‐scale switched process control system are used to verify the efficiency of the proposed identification algorithm. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2010     

Robust modeling of mixture probabilistic principal component analysis and process monitoring application

In this article, a robust modeling strategy for mixture probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is proposed. Different from the traditional Gaussian distribution driven model such as PPCA, the multivariate student t‐distribution is adopted for probabilistic modeling to reduce the negative effect of outliers, which is very common in the process industry. Furthermore, for handling the missing data problem, a partially updating algorithm is developed for parameter learning in the robust mixture PPCA model. Therefore, the new robust model can simultaneously deal with outliers and missing data. For process monitoring, a Bayesian soft decision fusion strategy is developed which is combined with the robust local monitoring models under different operating conditions. Two case studies demonstrate that the new robust model shows enhanced modeling and monitoring performance in both outlier and missing data cases, compared to the mixture probabilistic principal analysis model. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 60: 2143–2157, 2014     

Data‐driven adaptive nested robust optimization: General modeling framework and efficient computational algorithm for decision making under uncertainty

A novel data‐driven adaptive robust optimization framework that leverages big data in process industries is proposed. A Bayesian nonparametric model—the Dirichlet process mixture model—is adopted and combined with a variational inference algorithm to extract the information embedded within uncertainty data. Further a data‐driven approach for defining uncertainty set is proposed. This machine‐learning model is seamlessly integrated with adaptive robust optimization approach through a novel four‐level optimization framework. This framework explicitly accounts for the correlation, asymmetry and multimode of uncertainty data, so it generates less conservative solutions. Additionally, the proposed framework is robust not only to parameter variations, but also to anomalous measurements. Because the resulting multilevel optimization problem cannot be solved directly by any off‐the‐shelf solvers, an efficient column‐and‐constraint generation algorithm is proposed to address the computational challenge. Two industrial applications on batch process scheduling and on process network planning are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed modeling framework and effectiveness of the solution algorithm. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 63: 3790–3817, 2017     

A Bayesian framework for real‐time identification of locally weighted partial least squares

Just‐in‐time (JIT) learning methods are widely used in dealing with nonlinear and multimode behavior of industrial processes. The locally weighted partial least squares (LW‐PLS) method is among the most commonly used JIT methods. The performance of LW‐PLS model depends on parameters of the similarity function as well as the structure and parameters of the local PLS model. However, the regular LW‐PLS algorithm assumes that the parameters of the similarity function and structure of the local PLS model are known and do not fully utilize available knowledge to estimate the model parameters. A Bayesian framework is proposed to provide a systematic way for real‐time parameterization of the similarity function, selection of the local PLS model structure, and estimation of the corresponding model parameters. By applying the Bayes' theorem, the proposed framework incorporates the prior knowledge into the identification process and takes into account the different contribution of measurement noises. Furthermore, Bayesian model structure selection can automatically deal with the model complexity problem to avoid the overfitting issue. The advantages of this new approach are highlighted through two case studies based on the real‐world near infrared data. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 518–529, 2015     

基于过采样结构的贝叶斯鲁棒辨识方法

在实际工业过程中，异常值的干扰是不可避免的，现有的处理异常值方法会导致模型估计有偏差，并且没有考虑潜在异常值的影响。针对上述缺点，利用学生分布噪声来处理潜在异常值，提出一种适用于学生分布噪声情况的贝叶斯鲁棒辨识方法，并且将其与过采样结构相结合，推出了基于过采样结构的贝叶斯鲁棒辨识方法。仿真实验表明：本文提出的算法，随着异常值影响的增加，仍然保持较小的辨识误差，而传统辨识方法已不再适用，同时，还克服了传统结构需添加额外测试信号所带来的巨额成本。因此，本文的算法更适合于实际工业过程辨识。     

A Robust Statistical Batch Process Monitoring Framework and Its Application

In order to reduce the variations of the product quality in batch processes, multivariate statistical process control methods according to multi-way principal component analysis (MPCA) or multi-way projection to latent structure (MPLS) were proposed for on-line batch process monitoring. However, they are based on the decomposition of relative covariance matrix and strongly affected by outlying observations. In this paper, in view of an efficient projection pursuit algorithm, a robust statistical batch process monitoring (RSBPM) framework, which is resistant to outliers, is proposed to reduce the high demand for modeling data. The construction of robust normal operating condition model and robust control limits are discussed in detail. It is evaluated on monitoring an industrial streptomycin fermentation process and compared with the conventional MPCA. The results show that the RSBPM framework is resistant to possible outliers and the robustness is confirmed.     

间歇生产过程鲁棒统计监控及其应用

In order to reduce the variations of the product quality in batch processes, multivariate statistical process control methods according to multi-way principal component analysis (MPCA) or multi-way projection to latent structure (MPLS) were proposed for on-line batch process monitoring. However, they are based on the decomposition of relative covariance matrix and strongly affected by outlying observations. In this paper, in view of an efficient projection pursuit algorithm, a robust statistical batch process monitoring (RSBPM) framework, which is resistant to outliers, is proposed to reduce the high demand for modeling data. The construction of robust normal operating condition model and robust control limits are discussed in detail. It is evaluated on monitoring an industrial streptomycin fermentation process and compared with the conventional MPCA. The results show that the RSBPM framework is resistant to possible outliers and the robustness is confirmed.     

基于变分贝叶斯算法的线性变参数系统辨识

线性变参数系统（LPV）将多阶段、非线性的过程建模转化为线性多模型的辨识问题,是解决非线性过程建模的一个有效手段。由于实际工业过程存在各种干扰因素,导致被建模系统呈现随机性及模型参数的不确定性。针对这一问题,考虑采用变分贝叶斯（VB）算法对LPV模型进行辨识。该算法首先给定参数相应的先验分布,通过最大化目标函数的下界,从而估计得到参数的后验分布。不仅可实现对参数的点估计,同时量化了估计值的不确定性。针对典型二阶过程和连续搅拌反应釜（CSTR）,运用提出的算法进行仿真实验,表明了该贝叶斯估计方法的优越性。     

A data‐driven multistage adaptive robust optimization framework for planning and scheduling under uncertainty

A novel data‐driven approach for optimization under uncertainty based on multistage adaptive robust optimization (ARO) and nonparametric kernel density M‐estimation is proposed. Different from conventional robust optimization methods, the proposed framework incorporates distributional information to avoid over‐conservatism. Robust kernel density estimation with Hampel loss function is employed to extract probability distributions from uncertainty data via a kernelized iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. A data‐driven uncertainty set is proposed, where bounds of uncertain parameters are defined by quantile functions, to organically integrate the multistage ARO framework with uncertainty data. Based on this uncertainty set, we further develop an exact robust counterpart in its general form for solving the resulting data‐driven multistage ARO problem. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, two typical applications in process operations are presented: The first one is on strategic planning of process networks, and the other one on short‐term scheduling of multipurpose batch processes. The proposed approach returns 23.9% higher net present value and 31.5% more profits than the conventional robust optimization method in planning and scheduling applications, respectively. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 63: 4343–4369, 2017     

A novel dynamic bayesian network‐based networked process monitoring approach for fault detection,propagation identification,and root cause diagnosis

A novel networked process monitoring, fault propagation identification, and root cause diagnosis approach is developed in this study. First, process network structure is determined from prior process knowledge and analysis. The network model parameters including the conditional probability density functions of different nodes are then estimated from process operating data to characterize the causal relationships among the monitored variables. Subsequently, the Bayesian inference‐based abnormality likelihood index is proposed to detect abnormal events in chemical processes. After the process fault is detected, the novel dynamic Bayesian probability and contribution indices are further developed from the transitional probabilities of monitored variables to identify the major faulty effect variables with significant upsets. With the dynamic Bayesian contribution index, the statistical inference rules are, thus, designed to search for the fault propagation pathways from the downstream backwards to the upstream process. In this way, the ending nodes in the identified propagation pathways can be captured as the root cause variables of process faults. Meanwhile, the identified fault propagation sequence provides an in‐depth understanding as to the interactive effects of faults throughout the processes. The proposed approach is demonstrated using the illustrative continuous stirred tank reactor system and the Tennessee Eastman chemical process with the fault propagation identification results compared against those of the transfer entropy‐based monitoring method. The results show that the novel networked process monitoring and diagnosis approach can accurately detect abnormal events, identify the fault propagation pathways, and diagnose the root cause variables. © 2013 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 59: 2348–2365, 2013     

Identification of Multivariable Delay Processes in Presence of Nonzero Initial Conditions and Disturbances

In this paper, a robust identification method is proposed for multiple‐input and multiple‐output (MIMO) continuous‐time processes with multiple time delays. Suitable multiple integrations are constructed and regression equations linear in the aggregate parameters are derived with the use of the test responses and their multiple integrals. The multiple time delays are estimated by solving some algebraic equations without iteration and the other process model parameters are then recovered. Its effectiveness is demonstrated through simulation and real‐time testing.     

Fault detection and isolation in hybrid process systems using a combined data‐driven and observer‐design methodology

A combined data‐driven and observer‐design methodology for fault detection and isolation (FDI) in hybrid process systems with switching operating modes is proposed. The main contribution is to construct a unified framework for FDI by integrating Gaussian mixture models (GMM), subspace model identification (SMI), and results from unknown input observer (UIO) theory. Initially, a GMM is built to identify and describe the multimodality of hybrid systems using the recorded input/output process data. A state‐space model is then obtained for each specific operating mode based on SMI if the system matrices are unknown. An UIO is designed to estimate the system states robustly, based on which the fault detection is laid out through a multivariate analysis of the residuals. Finally, by designing a set of unknown input matrices for specific fault scenarios, fault isolation is performed through the disturbance‐decoupling principle from the UIO theory. A significant benefit of the developed framework is to overcome some of the limitations associated with individual model‐based and data‐based approaches in dealing with the problem of FDI in hybrid systems. Finally, the validity and effectiveness of the proposed monitoring framework are demonstrated using a numerical example, a simulated continuous stirred tank heater process, and the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 60: 2805–2814, 2014     

Bayesian Outlier Detection in Non‐Gaussian Autoregressive Time Series

This work investigates outlier detection and modelling in non‐Gaussian autoregressive time series models with margins in the class of a convolution closed parametric family. This framework allows for a wide variety of models for count and positive data types. The article investigates additive outliers which do not enter the dynamics of the process but whose presence may adversely influence statistical inference based on the data. The Bayesian approach proposed here allows one to estimate, at each time point, the probability of an outlier occurrence and its corresponding size thus identifying the observations that require further investigation. The methodology is illustrated using simulated and observed data sets.     

Extracting dynamic features with switching models for process data analytics and application in soft sensing

In recent decades, soft sensors have been profoundly studied and successfully applied to predict critical process variables in real‐time. While dealing with various application scenarios, data‐driven methods with representation learning possess great potentials. Latent features are formulated in these approaches to predict outputs from correlated input variables. In this study, a probabilistic framework of feature extraction is proposed in the context of process data analysis. To address switching behaviors in industrial processes, multiple emission models are utilized to construct latent space. To address temporal correlations from continuously operating processes, a dynamic model is implemented in latent space. Bayesian learning strategy is then developed for parameters estimation, where modeling preferences and uncertainties from multiple models are considered. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed feature extraction algorithm are illustrated through numerical simulations, as well as an industrial case study. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 2037–2051, 2018     

Nonlinear process identification in the presence of multiple correlated hidden scheduling variables with missing data

Identification of nonlinear processes in the presence of noise corrupted and correlated multiple scheduling variables with missing data is concerned. The dynamics of the hidden scheduling variables are represented by a state‐space model with unknown parameters. To assure generality, it is assumed that the multiple correlated scheduling variables are corrupted with unknown disturbances and the identification dataset is incomplete with missing data. A multiple model approach is proposed to formulate the identification problem of nonlinear systems under the framework of the expectation‐maximization algorithm. The parameters of the local process models and scheduling variable models as well as the hyperparameters of the weighting function are simultaneously estimated. The particle smoothing technique is adopted to handle the computation of expectation functions. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated through several simulated examples. Through an experimental study on a pilot‐scale multitank system, the practical advantages are further illustrated. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 3270–3287, 2015     

Robust model predictive control and fault handling of batch processes

This work considers the control of batch processes subject to input constraints and model uncertainty with the objective of achieving a desired product quality. First, a computationally efficient nonlinear robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) is designed. The robust MPC scheme uses robust reverse‐time reachability regions (RTRRs), which we define as the set of process states that can be driven to a desired neighborhood of the target end‐point subject to input constraints and model uncertainty. A multilevel optimization‐based algorithm to generate robust RTRRs for specified uncertainty bounds is presented. We then consider the problem of uncertain batch processes subject to finite duration faults in the control actuators. Using the robust RTRR‐based MPC as the main tool, a robust safe‐steering framework is developed to address the problem of how to operate the functioning inputs during the fault repair period to ensure that the desired end‐point neighborhood can be reached upon recovery of the full control effort. The applicability of the proposed robust RTRR‐based controller and safe‐steering framework subject to limited availability of measurements and sensor noise are illustrated using a fed‐batch reactor system. © 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2011     

Nonlinear robust optimization for process design

A novel robust optimization framework is proposed to address general nonlinear problems in process design. Local linearization is taken with respect to the uncertain parameters around multiple realizations of the uncertainty, and an iterative algorithm is implemented to solve the problem. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can handle different categories of problems according to the complexity of the problems. First, inequality‐only constrained optimization problem as studied in most existing robust optimization methods can be addressed. Second, the proposed framework can deal with problems with equality constraint associated with uncertain parameters. In the final case, we investigate problems with operation variables which can be adjusted according to the realizations of uncertainty. A local affinely adjustable decision rule is adopted for the operation variables (i.e., an affine function of the uncertain parameter). Different applications corresponding to different classes of problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear robust optimization framework. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 481–494, 2018     

Operational optimization of industrial steam systems under uncertainty using data-Driven adaptive robust optimization

This article addresses the operational optimization of industrial steam systems under device efficiency uncertainty using a data-driven adaptive robust optimization approach. A semiempirical model of steam turbine is first developed based on process mechanism and operational data. Uncertain parameters of the proposed steam turbine model are further derived from the historical process data. A robust kernel density estimation method is then used to construct the uncertainty sets for modeling these uncertain parameters. The data-driven uncertainty sets are incorporated into a two-stage adaptive robust mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework for operational optimization of steam systems to minimize the total operating cost. Integer variables are introduced to model the on/off decisions of the steam turbines and electrical motors, which are the major energy consumers of the steam system. By applying the affine decision rule, the proposed multilevel optimization model is transformed into its robust counterpart, which is a single-level MILP problem. The proposed framework is applied to the steam system of a real-world ethylene plant to demonstrate its applicability. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 65: e16500 2019     

Ensemble Correntropy‐Based Mooney Viscosity Prediction Model for an Industrial Rubber Mixing Process

The development of accurate soft sensors for online prediction of Mooney viscosities in industrial rubber mixing processes is a difficult task because the modeling dataset often contains various outliers. A correntropy kernel learning (CKL) method for robust soft sensor modeling of nonlinear industrial processes with outlier samples is proposed. Simultaneously, the candidate outliers can be identified once the CKL‐based soft sensor model is built. An index for describing the uncertainty of the CKL model is designed. Furthermore, to obtain more robust and accurate predictions, an ensemble CKL (ECKL) method is formulated by introducing the simple bagging strategy. Consequently, by detecting the outliers in a sequential manner, the database becomes more reliable for long‐term use. The application results for the industrial rubber mixing process demonstrate the superiority of ECKL in terms of better prediction performance.     

Mixture robust L1 probabilistic principal component regression and soft sensor application

In this paper, the multivariate Laplace distribution (also called L1 distribution) is adopted to construct a robust probabilistic principal component regression model (MRPPCR-L1) under multiple operating modes. In the practical industrial chemistry process, outliers exist due to incorrect recording, disturbances, and process noises and might result in modelling distortion. To address this problem, Laplace distribution, instead of the Gaussian distribution in traditional methods, is introduced to reduce the negative influence of outliers. Moreover, probabilistic principal component regression is employed for dealing with the mixture modelling problem owing to its probabilistic property to determine the operating modes. The formulation of this approach is derived with the expectation maximum algorithm and the soft sensing model is also developed for prediction. Compared to the conventional method, a numerical example and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to demonstrate the robust modelling performance of the proposed method.