Fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection balanced risk allocation

The unbalanced allocation of risks among the contracting parties is an important decision leading to increase of the total cost of a specific project and affects the overall relationship between the contracting parties. Due to common risk allocation decision-making process is based on experiential knowledge, is subjective and implicit. This paper presents a fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection of balanced risk allocation which transforms the linguistic principles and experiential expert knowledge into a more usable and systematic quantitative-based analysis by using the fuzzy logic. The objectives of balanced risk allocation are developed based on the concept of Competence-Tendency trade-off. The proposed model integrates fuzzy logic qualitative approach and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) adaptive capabilities to evaluate allocation of project risks and determine best party to bear each one. Results from this model show its high capability in addressing most proper risk allocation with least contingency applied to the owner.     

一种基于信息熵的混合型多属性决策方法

针对属性值为精确数型、区间型和模糊型的混合多属性决策问题,提出了一种混合型多属性决策方法。该方法首先采用熵权系数法确定各性能指标的权重,以减少传统权重确定方法产生的主观偏差;然后,利用逼近理想解排序法模型对方案优劣排序;最后,假设某一最优产品所对应装备制造商的生产能力有约束等状况,采购方可根据自身情况选择若干家制造商并对其建立单目标的线性规划模型,确定生产数量在所选制造商之间的分配,以期达到总耗资最低、选择价值最大的目的。实例结果验证了该决策方法的可行性和有效性。     

一种风险型多属性灰靶决策方法

针对方案值为区间灰数且属性权重未知的灰色多属性风险型决策问题,提出一种风险灰靶决策方法。首先,为保留各决策属性的风险,定义了方案的正负期望偏离靶心度和综合期望偏离靶心度;其次,充分利用风险决策矩阵信息,建立确定指标权重的优化模型,通过计算综合期望偏离靶心度对方案进行排序;最后,通过一个实例验证该模型适用于信息值为区间灰数的风险型多指标决策问题,表明了该模型的有效性和可行性。     

犹豫模糊多属性决策的折中比值法

针对属性值为犹豫模糊元的多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的多属性决策方法——折中比值法。折中比值法方法是通过定义能同时反映出备选方案尽可能地接近正理想点又同时尽可能地远离负理想点,并且把决策者的主观态度也包含在内的排序指标对备选方案进行排序和择优。最后,通过应用实例说明了所提出的方法的有效性和可行性。     

Experience mining for decision making on implementing sustainable urbanization — An innovative approach

The proliferation of good urbanization practices around the world has led to an imperative need to share these experiences. However, these good practice cases relate to different and specific contexts, making it difficult to effectively apply these experiences to other cases. It is appreciated that no existing method is available to guide us into refining these experiences so that they can be adopted in new urbanization scenarios. This method-shortage presents a major barrier to the sharing of good experiences between cities in promoting sustainable urbanization. This paper presents an Experience Mining System (ExMS) for effectively extracting previous urbanization practice experiences. ExMS is built based on the theories of experience representation, storage and mining. Its major components include a Sustainable Urbanization Practices Database (SUPD), a Refinery process, and a Mine-sweeper. ExMS can facilitate decision-makers in the selection of strategies and solutions when addressing urbanization practice challenges.     

Objective decision making

The organisation of an engineering function in a large electricity utility was reviewed and five alternatives identified. A detailed analysis by a staff team of assessors reversed the initial preconceptions of the staff that the structure should be based on geographical and functional consideration. By studying and discussing the factors the team were self-motivated to accept changes that put the specific needs of clients first. The methodology has widespread application to bringing about acceptance of change, and the re-identification of objectives     

基于加权BF-TOPSIS的多属性决策方法研究

BF-TOPSIS算法结合置信方程和TOPSIS算法,能够有效处理多属性决策问题。加权BF-TOPSIS(WBFTOPSIS)算法是对BF-TOPSIS算法的有效推广,保留了BF-TOPSIS算法的优越性。文章首先对BF-TOPSIS算法的归一化问题进行详细推理分析,并给出BBAs构造的一种新的证明。通过分析BF-TOPSIS算法BBAs构造的实际意义,提出WBF-TOPSIS算法,并给出加权系数的最优化表达式。BF-TOPSIS算法是WBF-TOPSIS算法的一种特殊情况。相比于BF-TOPSIS算法,WBF-TOPSIS算法能够做出更优的决策结果;最后算例分析验证了所提算法处理多属性决策问题的优越性性。     

Developing decision support tools for the selection of “gentle” remediation approaches

A range of tools have been proposed to support decision making in contaminated land remediation. From a European perspective it is clear, however, that there are considerable national differences in the decision support process, and more generally in the extent to which this process supports the selection of less invasive, alternative remediation options such as phytoremediation, in situ immobilisation etc. (referred to here as “gentle” remediation technologies). In this paper we present results from the recently completed European Union ERANET SNOWMAN project SUMATECS (Sustainable Management of Trace Element Contaminated Sites), and critically review available decision support tools in terms of their fitness for purpose for the application of gentle remediation technologies. Stakeholder feedback indicates a lack of knowledge amongst stakeholders of currently available decision support tools. We propose that decision support which focuses on gentle remediation is more strongly incorporated into existing, well-established (national) decision support tools / decision-frameworks, to promote more widespread use and uptake.     

Developing regional cooperation strategies by multi-criteria decision making approaches

Based on the regional cooperation policy outlined in the National Land Plan of Japan, this study developed a regional cooperation planning model (RCPM) for use by regional planners and researchers. RCPM includes two sub-models. The first sub-model is the local service evaluation model (LSEM), which employs grey multiple criteria evaluation to assess local services for individual cities, towns and villages. The second sub-model is the cooperative partner assignment model (CPAM), which applies grey multiple objective 0?C1 programming to determine optimal cooperative partners for individual cities, towns and villages. Applying RCPM to eastern Taiwan yielded the following conclusions. First, the current division of Living Perimeters in the Eastern Taiwan Region should be adjusted according to the analytical results presented in this study to reach further benefits of cooperation. Second, since RCPM uses grey numbers to display input data and research findings, it provides planning flexibility and resolves uncertainties in practical planning. Finally, the modeling results contribute to cooperative strategy development among neighboring areas in an underdeveloped region.     

基于不确定多属性决策方法的互通式立交方案评价

在建立互通式立交方案评价指标体系的基础上,提出了一种权重信息不全、考虑决策者对决策方案偏好信息的立交方案多属性决策方法,实例应用表明,该方法既能克服以往方法主观定权的缺点,又能合理考虑立交方案比选中专家积极的主观意见,是一种适合实际应用的立交方案量化评价方法。     

浅析投标报价决策的技巧

针对现在建筑市场投标流行的评标办法，介绍了最低报价中标法、综合评标法、评审法等评标法的决策技巧，并结合实践进行了分析，以期提高中标率。     

空间网格结构优化设计的模糊判决方法研究

在空间网格结构的优化设计过程中,必然会遇到大量的不确定性信息和因素,而且往往要考虑多个目标函数,而各个目标之间存在矛盾及各目标的解具有冲突性,多目标优化问题要求各个目标函数都达到最优一般很难．本在经典模糊判决法的基础上,提出了四种改进的模糊判决法,并利用隶属函数建立模糊优化数学模型转化为非模糊的单目标优化模型,从而可以使用普通优化程序得到模糊优化解．最后,通过二十五杆塔架的数值例题来说明本方法的求解过程并验证了其模糊判决方法的有效性和可行性．     

Fuzzy multi-attribute decision making in pavement management

A methodology for ranking pavement sections according to maintenance urgency has been developed using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making concepts. First. the pavement sections in a highway network are grouped according to their maintenance needs, using fuzzy pavement serviceability indices. Then, the attributes relevant to each category of maintenance are identified, and an expert knowledge base containing priority values for selected combinations of attribute values is formed in collaboration with decisionmakers. Finally, it is shown how the fuzzy attribute values for each pavement section can interact with the expert knowledge base to produce a unique set of rankings for these sections. This ranking scheme is capable of handling possible fuzziness in the priorities assigned by the decision makers.     

Car-parking guidance with fuzzy knowledge-based decision making

This paper presents car-parking guidance with fuzzy knowledge-based decision making. The characteristic knowledge of all parking spaces is subjectively quantified via the fuzzy linguistic sets such as walking distance from parking place to building entrances, car safety, shade from sunlight outdoors, etc. With fuzzy definitions on those characteristics of parking space, the method of the ordered weight averaging can be applied to determine the truth value of the proposition: most desired characteristics of parking space are the characteristics of parking space to which the driver is being guided. The truth values of each parking space are to be used to rank all the available parking spaces. The parking space which has the maximum of the truth value is selected as the best parking space. Accordingly, the direction to the best parking space is guided in real-time by the traffic lights at intersections in parking lots for the drivers approaching. For viability of the proposed methodology, a model of real parking lots was used to simulate the interaction of the drivers to signs of traffic lights in real-time implementation.     

王安论断：当机立断才能抓住机遇

◇哲理故事◇美籍华裔企业家王安博士6岁的时候,有一天,他外出玩耍,经过一棵大树,突然有一个鸟巢掉在他的头上,里面有一只嗷嗷待哺的小麻雀。他决定把它带回家喂养,便连同鸟巢一起带回了家。走到家门口时,王安忽然想起妈妈不允许他在家养小动物,犹豫了一下,他决定把小麻雀放在门口,先进屋去请求妈妈。在他的哀求下,妈妈破例答应了他。王安兴奋地跑到门口,不料小麻雀不见了,一只黑猫在意犹未尽地擦着嘴巴。这件事给王安幼小的心灵上留下了深深的创伤,从此,他明白了一个道理,也吸取了一个深刻的教训:凡事要当机立断,不能瞻前顾后,犹豫不决。只…     

Assessing contractor selection criteria weights with fuzzy AHP method application in group decision environment

A tender procedure should facilitate selection of a reliable contractor with consideration to many criteria. Polish public procurement law, harmonized with EU guidelines on the subject, describes selection procedures in detail. Similar procedures are adopted by private sector clients as there exist no private sector specific procurement codes of practice. In the case of public procurement, the bid selection criteria have to refer to the object of procurement and not to the proprieties of a bidder. The client, in order to assure adequate quality of works (i.e. selection of a reliable and capable contractor) can, within the limits enforced by law, set conditions the bidders have to fulfill if they are to participate in a tender or negotiation procedure. The assessment based on criteria related with a bidder's technical and economic capability can be made also at the prequalification stage in restricted tendering procedures. The authors suggest the application of an extended fuzzy AHP method to the process of group decision making. This approach facilitates defining criteria weights by aggregation of decision makers' judgments. The paper presents an example that illustrates this approach to determining criteria weights for bidder assessment. The results show that the proposed fuzzy AHP method is superior to the traditional AHP in terms of improved quality of criteria prioritization.     

Translating Singapore architects' environmental awareness into decision making

Construction activity is known to have a major impact on the environment. Construction is a major consumer of a wide range of naturally occurring and synthesized resources. The extraction, processing and utilization of these resources can have various negative impacts on the environment. With increased awareness and knowledge of these impacts, efforts are being made to avoid these adverse effects. Among these is the selection and specification of appropriate materials. This paper studies the level of environmental awareness and knowledge of architects in Singapore when selecting and specifying materials during the design stage. Responses to a questionnaire indicate that the architects are aware of the environmental impacts of building materials, and knowledgeable about possible measures which could help avoid the problems. However, they are not adopting green design approaches. Key policy directions for government, professional bodies, educators and clients are made to enable Singapore architects to apply their knowledge of environmental issues in their design decisions.