Improved design of robust exponentially weighted moving average control charts for autocorrelated processes

Residual‐based control charts for autocorrelated processes are known to be sensitive to time series modeling errors, which can seriously inflate the false alarm rate. This paper presents a design approach for a residual‐based exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart that mitigates this problem by modifying the control limits based on the level of model uncertainty. Using a Bayesian analysis, we derive the approximate expected variance of the EWMA statistic, where the expectation is with respect to the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters. The result is a relatively clean expression for the expected variance as a function of the estimated parameters and their covariance matrix. We use control limits proportional to the square root of the expected variance. We compare our approach to two other approaches for designing robust residual‐based EWMA charts and argue that our approach generally results in a more appropriate widening of the control limits. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A general model for the economic-statistical design of adaptive control charts for processes subject to multiple assignable causes

Fully adaptive control charts are efficient statistical process control means to monitor a quality characteristic affecting the outcome of a manufacturing process. Usually, the performance of these adaptive charts is investigated in processes characterised by the possibility of the occurrence of a single assignable cause. However, this assumption is frequently far from reality, because a process shift to the out-of-control condition can be the consequence of several assignable causes, which can occur at the same time or independently. In this paper, we investigate the economic-statistical design of a variable-parameter (Vp) Shewhart control chart monitoring the process mean in the presence of multiple assignable causes. We develop a Markov chain that models the occurrence of several assignable causes leading to progressive process deterioration and calling for different corrective actions. A benchmark of examples has been generated to compare the performance of the Vp control chart with other adaptive control charts and the fixed-parameter control chart. The obtained results reveal the economic superiority of the Vp control chart.     

A study of time‐between‐events control chart for the monitoring of regularly maintained systems

Owing to usage, environment and aging, the condition of a system deteriorates over time. Regular maintenance is often conducted to restore its condition and to prevent failures from occurring. In this kind of a situation, the process is considered to be stable, thus statistical process control charts can be used to monitor the process. The monitoring can help in making a decision on whether further maintenance is worthwhile or whether the system has deteriorated to a state where regular maintenance is no longer effective. When modeling a deteriorating system, lifetime distributions with increasing failure rate are more appropriate. However, for a regularly maintained system, the failure time distribution can be approximated by the exponential distribution with an average failure rate that depends on the maintenance interval. In this paper, we adopt a modification for a time‐between‐events control chart, i.e. the exponential chart for monitoring the failure process of a maintained Weibull distributed system. We study the effect of changes on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution while the shape parameter remains at the same level on the sensitivity of the exponential chart. This paper illustrates an approach of integrating maintenance decision with statistical process monitoring methods. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.