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1.
This paper analyzes the competing and dependent failure processes for multi-state systems suffering from four typical random shocks. Reliability analysis for discrete degradation is conducted by explicitly modeling the state transition characteristics. Semi-Markov model is employed to explore how the system vulnerability and potential transition gap affect the state residence time. The failure dependence is specified as that random shocks can not only lead to different abrupt failures but also cause sudden changes on the state transition probabilities, making it easier for the system to stay at the degraded states. Reliability functions for all the exposed failure processes are presented based on the corresponding mechanisms. Interactions between different failure processes are also taken into account to evaluate the actual reliability levels in the context of degradation and distinct random shocks. An illustrative example of a multi-state air conditioning system is studied to demonstrate how the proposed method can be applied to the engineering practice. 相似文献
2.
For the systems that experience competing failure processes, an uncertain process–based degradation model is developed to describe the systems. The competing degradation process is composed of internal continuous degradation and external shocks, and the mutual dependence between them is considered. When the magnitude of the internal degradation exceeds the threshold, the soft failure occurs. While for the shock processes involving the randomness and the subjective information, we adopt the uncertain random renewal reward process to characterize it. Hard failure occurs when the damage of the shock process exceeds the strength threshold of the system. By using the belief reliability metric, the reliability of the degraded system is defined as the chance measure that neither soft failure nor hard failure occurs. And the effect of the degradation-shock dependence on the system reliability is performed by the parametric studies. Then the proposed degradation model is introduced into the preventive maintenance strategy to minimize the average maintenance cost. Using the microelectromechanical systems as an example, the effectiveness of the constructed degradation model and maintenance strategy is illustrated, and the proposed model can characterize the system degradation process in a superior way to the stochastic process model. These methods can be applied to other similar degraded systems and provide support for maintenance decisions. 相似文献
3.
Hao Lyu;Bing Lu;Hualong Xie;Hongchen Qu;Zaiyou Yang;Li Ma;Yuliang Jiang; 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2024,40(1):605-618
In this paper, a novel model is proposed for the reliability analysis of systems subjected to dependent competing failure processes at random cycle times. The model takes into account the effect of random cycle time on degradation rate and hard failure threshold. Random cycle time is the time required for the system to complete a run. With the continuous operation of the system in a period of cycle time, the degradation rate of the system is accelerated, and its resistance to random shocks is decreased, so the degradation rate and hard failure threshold are supposed to vary with the number of cycles. When the overall degradation exceeds the soft failure threshold, soft failure is triggered. When the shock magnitude is larger than the hard failure threshold, hard failure occurs. Combined with the stress-strength interference model, the reliability function of the system is derived. Finally, a Micro-Electro-Mechanical System is used to verify the validity of the proposed model. The validity of the model is demonstrated by sensitivity analysis. 相似文献
4.
Jiayin Tang Chongshuang Chen Lei Huang 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2019,35(1):179-191
This article develops reliability models for systems subject to two dependent competing failure processes, considering the correlation between additional damage size on degradation in soft failure process and stress magnitude of shock load in hard failure process, both of which are caused by the same kth random shock. The generalized correlative reliability assessment model based on copulas is proposed, which is then extended to three different shock patterns: (1) δ‐shock, (2) m‐shock, and (3) m‐run shocks. There are some statistical works to be introduced in reliability modeling, including data separation of total degradation amount, inferring the distribution of amount of aging continuous degradation at time t, and fitting copula to the specific correlation. The developed reliability models are demonstrated for an application example of a micro‐electro‐mechanical system. 相似文献
5.
Koosha Rafiee Qianmei Feng David W. Coit 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2017,33(7):1351-1366
In this study, we introduce reliability models for a device with two dependent failure processes: soft failure due to degradation and hard failure due to random shocks, by considering the declining hard failure threshold according to changes in degradation. Owing to the nature of degradation for complex devices such as microelectromechanical systems, a degraded system is more vulnerable to force and stress during operation. We address two different scenarios of the changing hard failure threshold due to changes in degradation. In Case 1, the initial hard failure threshold value reduces to a lower level as soon as the overall degradation reaches a critical value. In Case 2, the hard failure threshold decreases gradually and the amount of reduction is proportional to the change in degradation. A condition‐based maintenance model derived from a failure limit policy is presented to ensure that a device is functioning under a certain level of degradation. Finally, numerical examples are illustrated to explain the developed reliability and maintenance models, along with sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Massimiliano Giorgio Gianpaolo Pulcini 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2019,35(5):1476-1501
A new age‐ and state‐dependent degradation process is proposed, which can be used in the case the degradation phenomenon under study is not necessarily monotonic increasing. In particular, the degradation increments of the proposed model are assumed to be possibly dependent on each other and negative. The model is obtained by generalizing the well‐known and largely applied Wiener process and partially preserves the mathematically tractability of the Wiener process. In the paper, the main features and properties of the proposed model are first discussed and the maximum likelihood estimators of its parameters are derived. An applicative example is finally developed, which shows the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach. 相似文献
7.
8.
Modelling the failure process of a repairable system is vitally important in many industrial sectors such as the offshore industry and the transport industry, in which properly maintaining assets is needed. Among the various models, the geometric process (GP) has been widely applied, mainly in the reliability and maintenance engineering, since its introduction. A book on the GP was published in 2007 and included the GP-related research by that year. However, since then, much research has been conducted, which creates a necessity to review the existing publications relating to the GP, its various extensions and applications since 2007. This paper serves for this purpose. 相似文献
9.
Massimiliano Giorgio Maurizio Guida Gianpaolo Pulcini 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2018,34(4):543-562
The transformed gamma process is a suitable model for degradation phenomena where damages accumulate gradually over time in a sequence of tiny increments. Attractiveness of the transformed gamma process mainly lies in the fact that it provides a relatively easy way for dealing with phenomena in which the degradation increments over disjoint time intervals are not independent. The transformed gamma process is also a very flexible model. In fact, it is indexed by 2 functions, the “age function” and the “state function,” whose mathematical form can be chosen ad hoc for modeling the dependence of the future degradation increment of a unit on its current age and state, respectively. In this paper, the transformed gamma process is adopted to describe the degradation paths of degrading units in the presence of an unexplained form of unit‐to‐unit variability. The degradation path of each unit is described via a transformed gamma process. Heterogeneity among paths of different units is accounted for by assuming that the scale parameters of the age and state functions vary randomly from unit to unit. Under these assumptions, a quite mathematically tractable model is obtained. The main properties of the proposed model are discussed, and inferential procedures based on the maximum likelihood criterion are implemented. A simple test is presented to check the goodness of fit of the proposed model. Three applicative examples, based on real degradation data, are developed. 相似文献
10.
This paper proposes a dependent competing risks model for the reliability analysis of technological units that are subject both to degradation phenomena and to catastrophic failures. The paper is mainly addressed to the reanalysis of real data presented in a previous work, which refer to some electronic devices subject to two failure modes, namely the light intensity degradation and the solder/Cu pad interface fracture, which in previous papers, were considered independent. The main reliability characteristics of the devices, such as the probability density functions, the cause‐specific cumulative distribution function and hazard rate of each failure mode in the presence of both modes, are estimated. Likewise, the fraction of failures caused by each failure mode during the whole life of the devices or their residual life is derived. Finally, the results obtained under the proposed dependent competing risks model are compared to those obtained in previous papers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Qingbiao Song;Jiayin Tang;Honglei Wei;Yong Li; 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2024,40(5):2584-2602
The two dependent competing risks are soft failure due to aging degradation and fragmentation caused by shocks and hard failure due to spring breakage caused by the same shock process. Considering the complexity of the product itself and the instability of the working environment, this study proposed a generalized reliability model for systems experiencing dependent competing failure processes (DCFPs) of degradation and random shocks, which considered two kinds of DCFP: (1) shock process could affect soft failure thresholds; (2) degradation process could affect hard failure thresholds. In case (1), we considered the effect that a cumulative number of shocks above a certain magnitude could have on the change in the soft failure threshold. In case (2), we considered not only the shock process's impact on the soft failure threshold but also the total degradation (including continuous degradation and sudden degradation caused by shock) on the hard failure threshold. The model captures the features that the shocks experienced by the system affect the degradation process, accelerating the system degradation and causing soft failures; the degradation process of the system affects the shock process, making the system more susceptible to failure from external shocks. Finally, an example using micro-electro-mechanical systems devices illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach with sensitivity analysis. 相似文献
12.
Hao Lyu Zaiyou Yang Shuai Wang Yaping Zhao Michael Pecht 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2021,37(6):2936-2949
In this paper, a novel multistage reliability model is provided as systems are often divided into many stages according to system degradation characteristics. Multistage hard failure (caused by random shock) process (MHFP) and multistage soft failure (caused by random shock and continuous degradation) process (MSFP) are introduced to describe the competing failure processes, where either the MSFP or MHFP would break down the system. The shock processes impact the system in three ways: (1) fatal load shocks cause hard failure immediately in the hard failure process; (2) time shocks cause a hard failure threshold changing; (3) damage load shocks cause degradation level increasing in the soft failure process. In this paper, a density function dispersion method is carried out to address the multistage reliability model, and the effectiveness of the proposed models is demonstrated by reliability analysis with the one-stage model. Finally, the multistage model is applied to a case study, the degradation process is divided into three stages, and the hard failure threshold can be transmitted twice. The proposed model can be applied in other multistage situations, and the calculation method can satisfy the accuracy requirements. 相似文献
13.
Zhihua Wang Junxing Li Xiaobing Ma Yongbo Zhang Huimin Fu Sridhar Krishnaswamy 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2017,33(4):693-708
Degradation analysis is very useful in reliability assessment for complex systems and highly reliable products, because few or even no failures are expected in a reasonable life test span for them. In order to further our study on degradation analysis, a novel Wiener process degradation model subject to measurement errors is proposed. Two transformed time scales are involved to depict the statistical property evolution over time. A situation where one transformed time scale illustrates a linear form for the degradation trend and the other transformed time scale shows a generalized quadratic form for the degradation variance is discussed particularly. A one‐stage maximum likelihood estimation of parameters is constructed. The statistical inferences of this model are further discussed. The proposed method is illustrated and verified in a comprehensive simulation study and two real applications for indium tin oxide (ITO) conductive film and light emitting diode (LED). The Wiener process model with mixed effects is considered as a reference. Comparisons show that the proposed method is more general and flexible, and can provide reasonable results, even in considerably small sample size circumstance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
This paper presents an extension of reliability analysis of electronic devices with multiple competing failure modes involving performance aging degradation. The probability that a product fails on a specific mode is derived. Using this probability, the dominant failure mode on the product can be predicted. A practical example is presented to analyze an electronic device with two kinds of major failure modes–solder/Cu pad interface fracture (a catastrophic failure) and light intensity degradation (a degradation failure). Reliability modeling of an individual failure mode and device reliability analysis is presented and results are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
研究系统受到δ冲击时,考虑系统自然退化和冲击两个竞争性失效过程间具有相关性时,系统可靠性的建模问题。相关性一方面表现为冲击造成系统退化量的增加,另一方面表现为系统的自然退化程度对冲击结果的影响。假设系统因冲击而失效的过程是δ冲击过程,通过系统自然退化过程和冲击过程的分布函数,导出了系统的可靠度函数,建立了系统可靠度模型的一般形式,并给出一种特例的具体形式,最后利用文献中的具体参数进行仿真,以验证模型的正确性和有效性。 相似文献
16.
Xiaolin Wang Ping Jiang Bo Guo Zhijun Cheng 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2014,30(2):205-220
The aim of this paper is to investigate the issue of real‐time reliability evaluation based on a general Wiener process‐based degradation model. With its mathematical tractability, the Wiener process with a linear drift has been widely used in the literature, to characterize the dynamics of the degradation process or its transformation. However, the nonlinear degradation process, which can't be properly linearized, exists in practice. The dynamics of such a degradation process can't be accurately captured by linear models. Here, a general Wiener process‐based degradation model is proposed, which covers a variety of Wiener process‐based models as its limiting cases. A two‐stage method is presented to estimate the unknown parameters. Two real‐time reliability evaluation procedures are presented for different conditions: one is the analytical evaluation procedure, and the other is the simulated evaluation procedure. It is shown that when new degradation information is available, the evaluation results can be adaptively updated. Moreover, to check out the proposed degradation model, a graphical method is provided. Finally, the validity of the proposed evaluation method is illustrated by a numerical example and two real‐world examples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Rassoul Noorossana Kamyar Sabri‐Laghaie 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2016,32(3):1109-1126
Lifetime of some systems can be measured based on multiple time scales. For instance, the lifetime of an airplane may be affected by its mileage or number of landings. Furthermore, most systems are exposed to competing risks. In this regard, time scales can accelerate the failure mechanism of these systems. In this paper, the behavior of systems is investigated under competing risks and multiple time scales. The time scales follow independent Poisson processes. As it is not straight forward obtaining closed‐form relations for the system reliability, we have provided a parametric upper bound. Also, the upper bound can be tightened by considering an error function. The error function can be built by regression on a sample containing real values of system reliability for given time units. Performance of the upper bound is studied in two numerical examples and a case study. Results show that the obtained upper bound is very tight. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Kai Liu Tian-Ji Zou Wei Dang Cong-Min Lv Min-Cheng Xin Peng Li 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2020,36(6):2066-2084
A degradation model is used to analyze degradation data and product reliability. Owing to model uncertainty, the assumed degradation model may be improper, which can create a difference between the evaluated and actual product reliabilities. Thus, model misspecification analysis is essential. Recent studies on misspecification analysis have mainly considered single-phase degradation models; two-phase degradation models have not been investigated intensively. In this study, an approach to model misspecification analysis was developed for a two-phase gamma-Wiener process, where the change point was assumed to be known. The gamma and Wiener processes in a two-phase degradation model may be incorrectly assumed, so five misspecified degradation models were considered: the two-phase Wiener process, two-phase gamma process, two-phase Wiener-gamma process, one-phase Wiener process, and one-phase gamma process. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to examine the effects of model misspecification on the relative bias and relative variability. A case study was performed to examine the effects of model misspecification on the evaluated mean time to failure and median lifetime of a product for different sample sizes, termination time, and change points. The results clearly demonstrated the effects of model misspecification on the evaluated reliability of a product. 相似文献
19.
Robertas Alzbutas Tomas Iešmantas 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2014,30(1):121-132
In this article, the authors present a general methodology for age‐dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing components, structures and systems. The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference—its ability to incorporate prior information and on ideas that ageing can be thought of as age‐dependent change of beliefs about reliability parameters (mainly failure rate), when change of belief occurs not only because new failure data or other information becomes available with time but also because it continuously changes due to the flow of time and the evolution of beliefs. The main objective of this article is to present a clear way of how practitioners can apply Bayesian methods to deal with risk and reliability analysis considering ageing phenomena. The methodology describes step‐by‐step failure rate analysis of ageing components: from the Bayesian model building to its verification and generalization with Bayesian model averaging, which as the authors suggest in this article, could serve as an alternative for various goodness‐of‐fit assessment tools and as a universal tool to cope with various sources of uncertainty. The proposed methodology is able to deal with sparse and rare failure events, as is the case in electrical components, piping systems and various other systems with high reliability. In a case study of electrical instrumentation and control components, the proposed methodology was applied to analyse age‐dependent failure rates together with the treatment of uncertainty due to age‐dependent model selection. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Han Wang Yu Zhao Xiaobing Ma Zhihua Wang 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2019,35(1):304-317
For reliability assessment based on accelerated degradation tests (ADTs), an appropriate parameter estimation method is very important because it affects the extrapolation and prediction accuracy. The well‐adopted maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method focuses on interpolation fitting and obtains results via maximizing the likelihood of the observations. However, a best interpolation fitting does not necessarily yield a best extrapolation. In this paper, therefore, a pseudo‐MLE (P‐MLE) method is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of constant‐stress ADTs by considering the degradation mechanism equivalence under Wiener process. In particular, the degradation mechanism equivalence is characterized by a mechanism equivalence factor which presents the proportional relationship between degradation rate and variation. Then, the mechanism equivalence factor is determined via a two‐step method. The other model parameters can be estimated by the general MLE method. The asymptotic variances of acceleration factors and the p‐quantile of product failure time under normal condition are adopted to compare the statistical properties of the proposed method and the general MLE approach. Numerical examples show that the novel P‐MLE method may not achieve a maximum likelihood but can provide more benefits regarding prediction accuracy enhancement especially when the sample size is limited. 相似文献