Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.     

Formation of the metal and energy-carrier price clusters on the world market of nonferrous metals in the postcrisis period

The laws of formation of price clusters are revealed upon statistical processing of the data on changing the quotation prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, black oil, gasoline, and natural gas in the postcrisis period from January 1, 2009 to November 1, 2013. It is found that the metal prices entering in the price cluster of nonferrous metals most strongly affect the formation of the nonferrous metal price and that the prices of precious metals and energy carriers correct the exchange price of the metal to some extent but do not determine its formation. Equations are derived to calculate the prices. The results of calculation by these equations agree well with the real nonferrous metal prices in the near future.     

黄金价格波动对黄金生产企业股价影响的实证分析

通过建立二元线性回归模型,分析了黄金价格和证券市场指数的波动对在国内证劵交易所上市的3家黄金生产企业股价的影响,得出了现货黄金价格和证券市场指数波动都能对黄金生产企业的股价产生显著的正向影响,即黄金现货价格上扬和证券市场的走强会带动黄金生产企业股价的上涨,黄金现货价格下挫和证券市场的走弱会带动黄金生产企业股价的下跌。     

Effects on the Metals Industries of the Decrease in Oil Prices: A Preliminary Analytical Survey∗

The recent decrease in oil prices should benefit metals producers by reducing costs of production—through lower energy prices—and increasing the demand for metals— through income and substitution effects. It is difficult, however, to predict a substantial return to the earlier relative role of metals: Real energy prices are still well above their levels of 20 years ago; the duration and extent of the oil price decrease is highly uncertain; petroleum generally is not a very important energy input in metal production; other energy prices probably will not decline as much as oil prices; and the effects of the oil price decrease on currency exchange rates and inflation rates are complex and difficult to predict in general and for individual countries.     

B-S—二叉树期权定价模型在有色金属股票期权定价中的应用

随着我国期货市场的不断繁荣,为了规避由于股票价格波动过大导致的风险,研究中以章源钨业为例,运用改进后的B-S—二叉树期权定价模型对有色金属股票期权定价问题进行分析,研究结果表明:通过评估可以得到期权初始合理价格、各个阶段上的节点价值以及期权处理方式.因此B-S—二叉树期权定价模型可用于评估股票价值,加强管理人员对股票期权执行风险的控制,确定是否应该继续持有还是提前执行约定的执行价格.      

Inflation Cycles and Metals Prices

A leading index of inflation, developed and published monthly by the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University, has been designed to anticipate swings in broad measures of inflation such as the consumer price index. It generates signals indicating when the rate of inflation is likely to move up or down. Since metals prices are sensitive to the same types of economic factors that influence the overall inflation rate, we have examined the behavior of metals prices during intervals marked off by the signal dates. Between 1949 and 1986 the producer price index for metals and metal products moved up at an average annual rate of 6.7% when the leading index signaled an upswing, compared to a 1.7% rate during the remaining intervals. Aluminum scrap prices rose at a 15% average rate during the upswing signals but declined at an 11% rate otherwise. Copper scrap and zinc prices behaved similarly. The leading index of inflation appears to be a promising tool for forecasting short-run trends in metals prices.     

Commodities and Value-Based Pricing of Engineering Services

This paper proposes that many civil engineering companies can be classified as either commodities or value-based providers of services. We examine the way civil engineers price and market services for these two types of products, explore when and how much should companies increase or decrease prices, and determine what are or may be the long-term ramifications on market share. Lastly, we propose a model for value-based pricing of civil engineering services. An understanding of the products they deliver, how to competitively price these products, and ideas for improving profitability should help civil engineering firms price and market their services to improve profitability and not lose market share.     

基于供需影响的黄金价格分析与展望

从黄金特性、黄金供需形势对黄金价格的影响进行了详细地分析,结果表明:在供给方面,生产成本上升,供给量有限;在需求方面,短期要关注风险,中期要关注全球货币实际利率,长期要关注中国黄金市场完善和建设。同时,提出了2016年的黄金市场投资策略,指出了黄金中期走强,把握政治事件和货币政策,关注黄金投资机会的建议。     

钢铁期货价格与钢铁企业价值的联动关系

选取线材和螺纹钢期货为研究对象,考察钢铁期货价格走势对钢铁企业股票价格走势的影响,并进行实证分析。对以线材、螺纹钢为主要产品的钢铁企业的股票价格按公司市值加权平均,构成股票指数。用向量自回归模型和格兰杰因果检验方法探求期货价格和股票指数这两列数据之间的关系。得出以下结论：两列数据互为因果,但期货价格影响并引导股票指数的趋势更为明显。总体来说,钢铁期货的推出有利于对钢铁企业价值的发现。     

The influence of integration processes in nonferrous metallurgy on costs and prices of enterprises

The metallurgical industry of Russia was the object of investigation. The subject of the investigation were the mechanisms of managing costs and the price level for metal production, which is very topical from the viewpoint of maximizing them, and the main directions in the development of nonferrous metallurgy and the nonferrous metals market. Based on the results of studies on the main tendencies in the development of world and Russian nonferrous metallurgy, the influence of these factors on costs and prices is analyzed. Examples of the industry’s main institutional changes in the Russian Federation are presented. These investigations resulted in the development of a procedure that improves the mechanism of controlling costs and price level for metal production taking into account the situation in this field and on the nonferrous metals market.     

Recovery of rare earth metals through biosorption： An overview

Rare earth metals (REMs) are a series of 17 elements that have widespread and unique applications in high technology, power generation, communications, and defense industries. These resources are also ...     

Validation of the Metacomprehension Scale

A hybrid neural network is used to predict the difference between the conventional option-pricing model and observed intraday option prices for stock index option futures. Confidence intervals derived with bootstrap methods are used in a trading strategy that only allows trades outside the estimated range of spurious model fits to be executed. Whilst hybrid neural network option pricing models can improve predictions they have bias. The hybrid option-pricing bias can be reduced with bootstrap methods. A modified bootstrap predictor is indexed by a parameter that allows the predictor to range from a pure bootstrap predictor, to a hybrid predictor, and finally the bagging predictor. The modified bootstrap predictor outperforms the hybrid and bagging predictors. Greatly improved performance was observed on the boundary of the training set and where only sparse training data exists. Finally, bootstrap bias estimates were studied.     

Statistical Considerations for Predicting Residual Value of Heavy Equipment

Residual value needs to be considered in owning cost calculations for used heavy construction equipment. Its dependency on factors such as manufacturer and model, equipment age, and condition rating can best be examined by analyzing real market data from equipment auctions. Macroeconomic indicators can also be included to examine any potential influence of the overall economy on auction prices. This paper discusses statistical considerations for performing such a residual value analysis. Considerations include the study type, data properties, identifying outlier observations, regression assumptions, and formulating and selecting an appropriate regression model using the adjusted coefficient of determination. A second-order polynomial of equipment age with additive factors appears promising as the final regression model. Adjusted confidence and prediction intervals are created to correctly display residual value. Cross-validation using randomly split halves of the dataset is performed. Actual data for medium track dozers are used to illustrate the validity of the methodology.     

碱金属在高炉内的反应及分配

为了解新配矿条件下碱金属对高炉炉料性能的影响,研究了碱金属在高炉内的反应及分配.结果表明:在高温区,碱金属硅酸盐大量分解形成碱金属蒸气随煤气上升;在中温区炉料吸附的碱金属含量为2.8%左右;在低温区约为0.3%.炉料吸附碱金属的含量随其粒度的增大而减小,炉料平均粒度从11 mm增大到17 mm时,碱金属含量从1.3%下降到0.3%.碱金属化合物对焦炭的溶损和铁矿石的还原有催化作用:当K2O含量超过1.5%时,焦炭的反应性(CRI)提高23%左右,焦炭反应后的强度(CSR)约降低40%;K2O含量增加到2.56%时,烧结矿的低温还原粉化率(RDI)约提高30%;K2O含量增加1.5%时,球团矿的RDI提高15%左右.     

Changes in Worldwide Demand for Metals

Worldwide demand for some of the more important metals was analyzed to identify the most significant factors that explain differences in the level of demand between countries and between groups of countries. The per capita demand for steel, aluminum, copper, and total nonferrous metals was examined for more than 40 countries over a 22-year period.

World metal consumption per capita has risen over this period but the intensity of use, defined as tonnage of metal consumed divided by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declined. Consumption per capita has risen almost everywhere but the intensity of use has risen only in the developing countries and in Japan (nonferrous only).

The trend in world consumption of metals for the last decade is significantly different from the trend in the preceeding decade. This difference can be explained by a large drop in the rate of growth in GDP per capita worldwide during the last decade and a steep upward trend in real metal prices that occurred in the post-1973 period.     

Modern state of the world market of gallium

This review describes the current state and the character of changes of the gallium market under the influence of new sectors of its applications, as well as the state and prospects of the Russian market. The dynamics of world production and prices for gallium in recent years are shown. Changes in the commercial and industrial policy of China as the main producer of this metal are analyzed. The need for gallium in medium-term and long-term prospects is evaluated.     

基于弹性系数法的湖南省有色金属资源供需安全研究

基于有色金属矿产的资源特点和国家“十三五”规划战略思想的大背景,认为湖南省有色金属产业正面临着机遇与挑战并存的局面。将资源安全与市场经济结合进行研究,从有色金属的市场供求关系入手,利用弹性系数法进行定性定量分析,测算了2006~2015年湖南省有色金属年均消费、生产弹性系数及未来5年的市场供需情况。建立矿产资源供需安全度评定指标,分析了10年内湖南省有色金属安全状况及未来发展形势。结果显示,湖南有色金属资源综合利用率较低,产业结构配置不平衡,产品精制程度低且科技含量不高,预计未来将出现供需严重失衡现象,资源安全性大大降低。最后,以平衡市场供需压力为基点,从5个方面为保障湖南省有色金属资源安全与产业经济发展提出了对策建议。     

铜精矿定价分析

对于产品为铜精矿的项目来说,采用不同的定价模式来确定产品价格是影响项目收益的重要因素之一。目前国内国际上主要采用利用计价系数及利用电铜价格扣除冶炼费用来为铜精矿定价,其主观因素影响较大。认为用市场的成交价格来衡量铜精矿的价格更为合理。     

有色贸易商进出口业务运作之我见

随着世界经济的放缓,有色金属进出口贸易利润大幅降低。中国加入WTO,贸易商为求生存发展,必须适时地调整经营模式,以适应全球经济的竞争。首先,必须开展多种贸易形式,除一般贸易外,进料加工等方式也可根据企业自身的条件适时开拓。其次,多种商品灵活经营,其中小金属、稀散金属、铸造产品等边缘商品的利润不容忽视。再次,充分利用世界期货交易所的游戏规则,期货现货同时操作,获取利润,谋求发展。     

中国钼业证券市场分化现象的思考

对2010年1季度中国钼业证券市场价格与成交量的动态关系进行了深入分析,研究结果表明:中国钼业证券市场已呈现出了明显分化的运行态势,金钼股份在市场资本风险配置方面体现出了更高的效率。