Propensities and counterfactuals: The loser that almost won.

Close counterfactuals are alternatives to reality that "almost happened." A psychological analysis of close counterfactuals offers insights into the underlying representation of causal episodes and the inherent uncertainty attributed to many causal systems. The perception and representation of causal episodes is organized around possible focal outcomes, evoking a schema of causal forces competing over time. A distinction between 2 kinds of assessments of outcome probability is introduced: dispositions, based on causal information available prior to the episode, and propensities, based on event cues obtained from the episode itself. The distinction is critical to the use of almost, which requires the attribution of a strong propensity to the counterfactual outcome. The final discussion focuses on characteristic differences between psychological and philosophical approaches to the analysis of counterfactuals, causation, and probability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mood, self-esteem, and simulated alternatives: Thought-provoking affective influences on counterfactual direction.

Four studies indicated that moods and self-esteem can influence counterfactual thoughts. This was shown for counterfactuals generated for hypothetical situations (Study 1), for recalled life events (Study 2), and for agreement with counterfactual statements after laboratory tasks (Studies 3 and 4). High self-esteem (HSE) and low self-esteem (LSE) persons generated (Studies 1 and 2) or agreed to (Studies 3 and 4) more downward (worse than actuality) than upward (better than actuality) counterfactuals when in good moods, but they diverged in reactions to bad moods: HSE persons thought more about downward counterfactuals, whereas LSE persons thought more about upward counterfactuals. HSE persons felt better after generating downward counterfactuals (Study 2) and took longer to agree to analogous statements (Studies 3 and 4) in bad moods, suggesting attempts at mood repair. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mastery motivation and the need for approval in older children and their relationship to social desirability response tendencies.

The relative strength of mastery motivation and need for approval was tested among 2 groups of 11-yr-olds, 40 high and 40 low scorers on the Children's Social Desirability Scale. Mastery motivation was inferred from the amount of time that Ss spent in 1 of 2 discrimination tasks, a challenging (unsolvable) or a solvable problem. To measure need for approval, Ss were tested in either a social-reinforcement or an E-absent condition. As predicted, low scorers spent more time in the unsolvable than the solvable task, with negligible condition differences. High scorers spent more time in the social-reinforcement than in the E-absent condition, with negligible task differences. On the solvable task, high Ss demonstrated poorer learning than low Ss. Sex differences revealed greater mastery motivation for boys and greater need for approval for girls. The need to study the developmental course of these motives and to investigate the antecedents of the group differences obtained is emphasized. (29 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Membership has its (epistemic) rewards: Need for closure effects on in-group bias.

Three studies examined the impact of the need for cognitive closure on manifestations of in-group bias. All 3 studies found that high (vs. low) need for closure increased in-group favoritism and out-group derogation. Specifically, Study 1 found a positive relation between need for cognitive closure and both participants' ethnic group identification and their collective self-esteem. Studies 2 and 3 found a positive relation between need for closure and participants' identification with an in-group member and their acceptance of an in-group member's beliefs and attitudes. Studies 2 and 3 also found a negative relation between need for closure and participants' identification with an out-group member and their acceptance of an out-group member's beliefs and attitudes. The implications of these findings for the epistemic function of in-groups are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Illusory tilt and Euclidean schemes as factors in performance on the water-level task.

Predictions made by models of water-level acquisition were tested to understand better the sensory factors, cognitive factors, or both, that differentiate people who fail the test (low scorers) from people who pass (high scorers). Experiments 1 and 2 showed that in a horizontal-edge detection task, low scorers were less likely than high scorers to "see" liquid edges in tilted containers as horizontal. Experiment 3 showed that water-level type displays belong to a class of tilt illusions that arise from early visual processes for both low and high scorers, but only high scorers spontaneously use cognitive schemes to minimize illusory tilt. In Experiment 4, high scorers, but not low scorers, overrode the orientation illusion in a production task. The findings suggest bottom-up processes cause embedded lines to be misperceived for both groups, but high scorers are more likely to use cognitive schemes spontaneously to overcome the orientation illusion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Understanding Responses to Political Conflict: Interactive Effects of the Need for Closure and Salient Conflict Schemas.

Two studies examined the relationship between the need for cognitive closure and preferences for conflict-resolution strategies in 2 different samples of elite political actors. Although research has suggested that high need for closure should be associated with competitiveness, the authors argue that this relationship should be strongest among political actors with a hostile conflict schema, or representation of what a conflict is and how it should be dealt with. The authors provide evidence for this hypothesis using archival survey data on American foreign-policy officials' attitudes toward international conflict at the height of the Cold War (Study 1) and their own data on the relationship between the need for closure and conflict-strategy preferences among samples of activists from 2 political parties in Poland: a centrist party with a reputation for cooperativeness and an extremist party with a reputation for confrontation (Study 2). The broader implications of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Individual differences in need for cognitive closure

This article introduces an individual-difference measure of the need for cognitive closure. As a dispositional construct, the need for cognitive closure is presently treated as a latent variable manifested through several different aspects, namely, desire for predictability, preference for order and structure, discomfort with ambiguity, decisiveness, and close-mindedness. This article presents psychometric work on the measure as well as several validation studies including (a) a "known-groups" discrimination between populations assumed to differ in their need for closure, (b) discriminant and convergent validation with respect to related personality measures, and (c) replication of effects obtained with situational inductions of the need for closure. The present findings suggest that the Need for Closure Scale is a reliable and valid instrument of considerable potential utility in future "motivated social cognition" research.     

The functional basis of counterfactual thinking.

Counterfactual thoughts ("might-have-been" reconstructions of past outcomes) may serve an affective function (feeling better) and a preparative function (future improvement). Three studies showed that counterfactuals varying in their direction and structure may differentially serve these 2 functions. Direction influenced affect such that downward (vs upward) counterfactuals caused more positive affect. Direction influenced intentions such that upward (vs downward) counterfactuals heightened intentions to perform success-facilitating behaviors. Both direction and structure influenced performance on an anagram task such that upward and additive (vs downward and subtractive) counterfactuals engendered greater improvement. These findings suggest that people can strategically use downward counterfactuals to make themselves feel better and upward and additive counterfactuals to improve performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Counterfactual and Semifactual Conditionals Prime Alternative Possibilities.

The authors examined in 3 experiments the comprehension of counterfactuals, such as "If it had rained, the plants would have bloomed," and semifactuals, such as "Even if it had rained, the plants would have bloomed," compared with indicative conditionals, "If it rained, the plants bloomed." The first experiment showed that people read the negative conjunction, "not p and not q" faster when it was primed by a counterfactual than when it was primed by an indicative conditional. They read the affirmative conjunction, "p and q" equally quickly when it was primed by either conditional. The 2nd experiment showed that people read the negated-antecedent conjunction, "not p and q" faster when it was primed by a semifactual conditional. The 3rd experiment corroborated these results in a direct comparison of counterfactuals and semifactuals. The authors discuss the implications of the results for the mental representations of different conditionals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sensation Seeking Scale as a predictor of need for stimulation during sensory restriction.

Tested the hypothesis that the Zuckerman Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS) predicts strength of need for stimulation under conditions of sensory restriction. The SSS was administered to 214 male undergraduates. During a 3-hr isolation period, 15 high- and 15 low-SSS scorers were free to button press for visual, auditory, and kinesthetic stimulation. Except for visual stimulation high-SSS scorers button pressed at a higher rate than low-SSS scorers, but the differences were not significant. Low-SSS scorers showed a significantly greater need for visual stimulation than high-SSS scorers. High-SSS scorers showed a significant preference for kinesthetic stimulation, while low-SSS scorers had a significant preference for visual stimulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Correlates of two types of xenophilic orientation.

"A sample of 422 college students at Boston University responded to scales measuring tendencies toward xenophilia, authoritarianism, hostility toward typical Americans, willingness to stereotype, and interest in travelling abroad… . High scorers on the Xenophile Scale can be distinguished from low scorers on the above dimensions. High xenophiles seem to be more willing to stereotype, express hostility toward typical Americans, and express a stronger desire to travel than low xenophiles. Predictions were made concerning two varieties of high xenophiles, high scorers and low scorers on the California F scale. It was found that the low authoritarians were more attracted to things foreign than the highs along several dimensions. Furthermore among low scorers on the Xenophile scale, clear distinctions were found among the high and low F scale scorers. The highs were more willing to stereotype than were the lows." (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Do you two know each other? Transitivity, homophily, and the need for (network) closure.

The authors investigate whether need for closure affects how people seek order in judging social relations. In Study 1, the authors find that people who have a high need for closure (NFC) were more likely to assume their social contacts were connected to each other (i.e., transitivity) when this was not the case. In Studies 2 and 3, the authors examine another form of order in network relations—racial homophily—and find that high-NFC participants were more inclined to believe that 2 individuals from the same racial category (e.g., African American) were friends than two racially dissimilar individuals. Furthermore, high-NFC individuals were more likely to make errors when judging a racially mixed group of people; specifically, they recalled more racial homophily (racially similar people sitting closer together) than had actually appeared. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Esthetic judgment warm and cool: Cognitive and affective determinants.

When taking the Child Test of Esthetic Judgment under specific instructions, 35 undergraduates distinguished between subjective preference and objective judgment. All high scorers, regardless of instruction, were characterized by prior exposure to art and cognitive flexibility. But high scorers under the preference instructions ("warm" judges) are also open to emotional experience and search for emotional challenge in life and in art, whereas high scorers under the judgment instructions ("cool" judges) show a belief in the importance of evaluative standards. The 2 classifications cross-cut, producing 4 groups. Those scoring high under both instructions ("esthetic" Ss) were emotionally open, challenged by art, and guided by evaluative standards; those scoring low ("nonartistic" Ss) were emotionally constricted and without belief in evaluative standards. (10 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Being accepted for who we are: Evidence that social validation of the intrinsic self reduces general defensiveness.

Three studies examined the possibility that being liked intrinsically by others—for who one is—reduces self-esteem defense, whereas being liked for what one has achieved does not. All 3 studies contrasted the effects on self-esteem defense of liking based on intrinsic or achievement-related aspects of self. Study 1 showed that thoughts of being liked intrinsically reduced defensive bias toward downward social comparison. Study 2 demonstrated that being liked for intrinsic aspects of self reduced participants' tendency to defensively distance themselves from a negatively portrayed other. Study 3 revealed that being liked for intrinsic aspects of self encouraged a preference for upward over downward counterfactuals for a negative event. In all 3 studies, similar reductions in defensiveness were not found when liking was based on achievements. Discussion focuses on implications for understanding the functional value of different bases of self-worth. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Motivated augmentation and reduction of the overattribution bias.

Three experiments investigated whether the need to have (or avoid) cognitive closure affects observers' tendency to display attributional bias. Results of each experiment indicate that the overattribution bias was magnified under high need for cognitive closure and attenuated under high need to avoid closure. In Exps 1 and 3, the relevant motivational state was manipulated situationally, whereas in Exp 2 an individual-differences measure of the closure motivation was used. These divergent operationalizations yielded convergent results. Furthermore, when in Exp 3 the task consisted of attributions to the situation, high need for closure augmented, and high need to avoid closure reduced, situational rather than dispositional overattributions. The results imply general motivational boundary conditions for inferential biases across judgmental contents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Management of stage III breast cancer

The influence of several methodological factors on mean values of sister chromatid exchanges (SCEs) and micronuclei (MN) in peripheral lymphocytes of 1,650 subjects was analyzed. Donors belonged to a general healthy population living in Pisa and in two nearby small cities: Cascina and Navacchio (Ca-Na). Blood samples were collected over a period of 29 months and processed in three different laboratories of the some institute. Slides were analyzed by several scorers. Our data showed that lymphocyte proliferation indexes (PIs) and baseline mean values of SCEs were affected mainly by sampling period. This factor accounted for a percentage ranging from roughly 10% (Pisa) to 20% (Ca-Na) of total SCE variance and from roughly 10% (Pisa) to 13% (Ca-Na) of total PIs variance. A marginal effect was attributable to the different laboratories involved (maximum 3% for SCEs and 7% for PIs). The sampling period variable included many sources of variability such as culture media batches, fetal calf serum, PHA, BrdUrd, and seasonality. MN counts revealed a more marked dependence on processing laboratories. This factor accounted for a percentage of roughly 10% (Pisa and Ca-Na) of total variance, while the sampling period was marginally effective (about 1-4% of total variability). Because laboratories were equipped and supplied with the same materials and consumables and technicians were rotated constantly, the only variable ascertained was represented by the three different models of CO2 incubators used for lymphocyte culturing. When "month" and "incubator" variables were considered jointly, experimental variability accounted for 15-20% of total variance, both for PIs and mean values SCEs and MN. The variability due to slide scoring was reduced by assigning each slide to five different scorers and matching low with high scorers in each group. Present data show that when the study is performed under these controlled conditions, about 20% of total interdonor variability can be explained by experimental or seasonal factors.     

Extreme academic talent: Profiles of perfect scorers.

This study provides information on characteristics of students who scored perfectly on at least one subtest of the American College Testing Assessment Program (English, Mathematics, Social Studies, or Natural Sciences). The sample consisted of 5,615 perfect scorers from a total population of 729,606 high school juniors and seniors. Boys had a higher incidence of perfect scores in each subtest except English. Asians and Whites were overepresented among perfect scorers, and all other ethnic groups were underrepresented. "Perfection" in one academic area did not assure comparable high performance in other academic areas. Few perfect scorers planned college majors or careers in the disciplines in which they attained perfect scores. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Authoritarianism and "Tolerance of Trait Inconsistency."

The California F Scale was found to correlate positively with a paper-and-pencil measure of propensity to expect people to be thoroughly good or thoroughly bad. As a further explanation of this relationship, Ss in a laboratory situation were given mildly derogatory information about one respected partner and nonderogatory information about another respected partner. Ss who had scored high on the F Scale resisted the mildly derogatory information and continued to rate their 2 partners about equally favorably. Low F Ss lowered their evaluations of the partner about whom mildly derogatory information had been received and gave their 2 partners final ratings which were more unequally favorable than those given by high scorers. Low F Ss also conformed more unequally to the judgments expressed by the 2 partners than did high scorers. These experimental findings are interpreted to reflect the greater reluctance of high scorers to believe that "good people" possess a mixture of good and bad attributes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)