Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan

LM3-Eutro is a high-resolution eutrophication model with several improved features lacking in historical Great Lakes models. We calibrated LM3-Eutro using a 2-year (1994-1995) dataset and performed a hindcast simulation from 1976 to 1995 to evaluate the model's ability to make predictions over an extended period of time. Results show a reasonable agreement between model output and field data over this time period. The model predicted that an annual loading of 5600 metric tons (MT) would result in a lake-wide annual total phosphorus (TP) concentration of 7.5 μg L^− 1. Using best estimates of future TP loadings, LM3-Eutro forecasts suggest that Lake Michigan will remain oligotrophic and will continue to meet the 7 μg L^− 1 spring TP concentration Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objective.     

Dominant glacial landforms of the lower Great Lakes region exhibit different soil phosphorus chemistry and potential risk for phosphorus loss

Phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural soils are a growing economic and water-quality concern in the Lake Erie watershed. While recent studies have explored edge-of-field and watershed P losses related to land-use and agricultural management, the potential for soils developed from contrasting parent materials to retain or release P to runoff has not been examined. A field-based study comparing eight agricultural fields in contrasting glacial landscapes (hummocky coarse-textured till-plain, lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain) showed distinct physical and geochemical soil properties influencing inorganic P (P_i) partitioning throughout the soil profile between the two regions. Fields located on the coarse-textured till-plain in mid-western Ontario, Canada had alkaline calcareous soils with the highest Total-P_i concentrations and the majority of soil P_i stored in an acid-soluble pool (up to 91%). In contrast, loosely to moderately soluble P_i concentrations were higher in soils of the lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain in southwestern Ontario, northeast Indiana and northwestern Ohio, US. Overall, soils on the lacustrine and fine-textured till-plain had a greater shrink swell-capacity, likely creating preferential flow to minimize P_i interaction with the more acidic, lower carbonate and lower sorption capacity soils. These differences in soil P_i retention and transport pathways demonstrate that in addition to management, the natural landscape may exert a significant control on how P_i is mobilized throughout the Lake Erie watershed. Further, results indicate that careful consideration of region-specific hydrology and soil biogeochemistry may be required when designing appropriate management strategies to minimize P_i losses across the lower Great Lakes region.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin: A review

Climate change has the potential to alter the physical and chemical properties of water in the Great Lakes Basin, in turn impacting ecological function. This study synthesizes existing research associated with the potential effects of a changing climate on the quality and quantity of groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin. It includes analyses of impacts on (1) recharge, (2) groundwater storage, (3) discharge and groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, (4) exacerbating future urban development impacts on groundwater, (5) groundwater quality, and (6) ecohydrology.Large spatial and temporal (i.e., seasonal) variability in groundwater response to climate change between regions is anticipated. Most studies combine field observations with modelling, but many have focused only on small/medium basins. At these small scales, groundwater systems are generally projected to be fairly resilient to climate change impacts. However, modelling studies of larger basins (e.g., Grand River, Saginaw Bay, Maumee River) predict an increase in groundwater storage. Uncertainty in model simulations, particularly from climate models that are used to force hydrological models, is a major challenge. There have been too few studies to date that investigate the interplay of climate change and groundwater quality in the Great Lakes Basin to draw conclusions about future groundwater quality and ecohydrology.A summary of methods, models, and technology is provided. Model uncertainty has become an increasingly important topic and is also discussed. The study concludes with a synthesis of the main science needs to understand groundwater impacts in order to adapt to a changing climate in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Characteristics of double-crested cormorant colonies in the U.S. Great Lakes island landscape

The Great Lakes form the largest freshwater island system in the world and provide breeding habitat for a large proportion of the continental population of double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). Here, cormorants have a high profile due to conflicts with humans; by 2007, most active (64%) breeding sites in U.S. waters were managed. This study used data from the U.S. Great Lakes Colonial Waterbird Database and The Nature Conservancy's Great Lakes Island GIS database to identify important features of breeding sites in the U.S. Great Lakes and broaden understanding of cormorant presence at the island-landscape scale. Islands 0.5–10 ha were used more frequently than expected, and most sites had remoteness values of ≤ 3 km. Colony size was positively correlated with years occupied and large colonies (> 1000 pairs) developed primarily (95%) on island sites > 1.0 ha. Sites supporting large colonies were more remote than those supporting smaller colonies. Presence of other colonial waterbird species, especially Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus), also characterized cormorant sites. Islands used by cormorants comprised a small proportion (n = 90, 3%) of the U.S. Great Lakes island resource, and < 1% of the total island area. Certain characteristics of breeding sites (e.g., small islands, proximity to mainland) may increase negative attitudes about cormorants. To understand cormorant impacts to island resources (e.g., vegetation; other colonial waterbird species), we suggest cormorant presence in the Great Lakes be considered in the broader context of island science, conservation and known threats, and at a landscape scale.     

Assessment of nitrogen fixation rates in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Nitrogen fixation (N_Fix) is an important, yet understudied, microbial process in aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL). To date, a dearth of nitrogen fixation rate measurements exists in the LGL, are from temporally isolated studies, and were collected primarily from near-shore and surface water environments. Evidence of nitrogen accumulation across the Laurentian Great Lakes suggest that we do not have a firm grasp on nitrogen cycling in large lakes. Thus, we sought to quantify the spatial variability of N_Fix in the LGL. We found lakes are significantly different in N_Fix rates from one another and that rates are depth dependent. Overall mean surface N_Fix rates of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario were 0.024, 0.020, 0.069, 0.145, and 0.078 (nmol N₂/L/hr), respectively. Likewise, we found the Western, Central and Eastern basins of Lake Erie are significantly different in N_Fix rates (0.1540, 0.1032, 0.0738 nmol N₂/L/hr). However, we found no significant difference in N_Fix rates between near and offshore sites in Lake Erie, which may have been biased due to a cyanobacterial bloom containing a nitrogen-fixing Dolichospermum sp. Linear regression models indicate N_Fix is generally positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration and negatively correlated with oxidized nitrogen species concentrations. However, Lakes Erie and Huron exhibited a positive linear relationship with oxidized nitrogen, suggesting that N_Fix may persist to meet cellular and community nitrogen demands. Together, our data highlight N_Fix is important despite the presence of abundant nitrogen in all LGL.     

Checklist of Diatoms from the Laurentian Great Lakes. II

An updated diatom (Bacillariophyta) checklist for the Great Lakes is provided. The present checklist supplants the preliminary checklist published in The Journal for Great Lakes Research in 1978 and effectively represents a 20-year update. A series of procedures were used in this update which included: a reexamination of taxa reported in the 1978 list, additions of taxa reported from the Great Lakes during the past 20 years, and a revision of taxonomy, commensurate with systematic and nomenclatural changes which have occurred primarily during the past 8 years. 1488 diatom species or subordinate taxa are considered to be correct reports from the Great Lakes out of the 2188 diatom entities reported in the list. Of the 124 genera reported 105 are considered to be names in current use. The number of diatom species reported represents a 16.5% increase and the number of genera reported represents a 78% increase over those reported in the 1978 checklist. 13% of the species reported and 32% of the genera reported are due solely to nomenclatural changes. Results indicate that Great Lakes diatoms are a biodiverse component of the ecosystem, commensurate with the wide range of habitats found in the system. The present checklist indicates that most of the newly added species are primarily benthic or periphytic in nature and these represent largely understudied habitats. These results suggest that the present checklist may only represent approximately 70% or less of the extant diatom flora of the Great Lakes system.     

Fish movement and migration studies in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Research trends and knowledge gaps

Resource management agencies in the Laurentian Great Lakes routinely conduct studies of fish movement and migration to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of fishes within and between the lakes and their tributaries. This literature has never been summarized and evaluated to identify common themes and future research opportunities. We reviewed 112 studies, published between 1952 and 2010, with the goal of summarizing existing research on the movement and migration of fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The most commonly studied species were Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Walleye (Sander vitreus), and Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens). Studies relied mainly on mark-recapture techniques with comparatively few using newer technologies such as biotelemetry, hydroacoustics, or otolith microchemistry/isotope analysis. Most movement studies addressed questions related to reproductive biology, effects of environmental factors on movement, stocking, and habitat use. Movement-related knowledge gaps were identified through the literature synthesis and a survey distributed to Great Lakes fisheries managers. Future studies on emigration/immigration of fishes through lake corridors, the dispersal of stocked fishes and of stock mixing were identified as being particularly important given their potential for developing lake- or region-wide harvest regulations and stocking strategies. The diversity of tools for studying fish movement across multiple years and various spatial scales gives researchers new abilities to address key science questions and management needs. Addressing these needs has the potential to improve upon existing fisheries management practices within the complexity of multi-jurisdictional governance in the Laurentian Great Lakes.     

Perchlorate in environmental waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed: Evidence for uneven loading

A database of nearly 500 analyses of perchlorate in water samples from the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) watershed is presented, including samples from streams, from the Great Lakes and their connecting waters, with a special emphasis on Lake Erie. These data were assessed to test an earlier hypothesis that loading of perchlorate to the LGL watershed is relatively uniform. Higher perchlorate concentrations in streams in more developed and urban areas appear to indicate higher rates of loading from anthropogenic sources in these areas. Variable perchlorate concentrations in samples from Lake Erie indicate transient (un-mixed) conditions, and suggest loss by microbial degradation, focused in the central basin of that lake. Interpretation of the data included estimation of annual loading by streams in various sub-watersheds, and simulations (steady state and transient state) of the mass balance of perchlorate in the Great Lakes. The results suggest uneven loading from atmospheric deposition and other sources.     

Fate and transport of tritium in the Laurentian Great Lakes system

A mass balance modelling approach was used to help understand the movement and impacts of tritium discharged from Canada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor facilities into Lake Ontario. A concentration-time model, previously developed, is updated in this study. Historical and projected tritium concentrations for Lake Ontario waters are presented. A model calculated accident scenario (10 times highest accidental release) indicates the importance of dilution to the dispersion of tritium; a “modelled” release in 2016 has tritium levels declining by the year 2030 to “previous 2016 levels”. As part of the mass balance approach, lake-bottom sediments were considered as potential radionuclide “sinks”. Tritium porewater results were noted as perturbations at depth in both short (30–50 cm cores) and long sediment core profiles (to 300 cm). These change in tritium concentrations with depth may have been due to CANDU emissions (as the most likely source) over time, based on records of accidental releases of tritiated coolant water. However, the exact process (advection and/or diffusion) responsible for the penetration of tritium into the lake bottom requires additional physical and hydrogeological characterization of the lake bottom sediments.     

Alkalinity,pH, and pCO2 in the Laurentian Great Lakes: An initial view of seasonal and inter-annual trends

Ongoing human perturbations to the global inorganic carbon cycle can cause various changes in the pH and alkalinity of aquatic systems. Here seasonal and inter-annual trends in these variables were investigated in the five Laurentian Great Lakes using data from the U.S. EPA GLENDA database. These observations, along with temperature, were also used to predict the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface water (pCO₂). There are strong seasonal differences in pH in all five lakes, with higher pH levels in summer than in spring. All lakes show significantly higher pCO₂ values in spring than in summer. Michigan and Ontario show higher alkalinity values in spring; Huron shows lower spring values. Inter-annually, open-lake pH shows the highest values in all lakes around 2010, the time frame of lowest lake water levels, though only lakes Superior and Erie show statistically significant inflection points at that time. Inter-annual alkalinity trends differ considerably from those of pH. Superior’s alkalinity increases until ～2008 and then begins dropping; Ontario’s alkalinity decreases until ～2004 and then begins increasing, with the decrease coinciding with the introduction and establishment of Dreissenid mussels. The other lakes show much less clear inter-annual alkalinity trends. For pCO₂, inter-annual trends in each lake show either increases from 1992 to 2019 (for Superior, Michigan, and Huron) or shifts from slightly decreasing values to increasing values for the other lakes. The timing of this shift is from 2008 to 2010.     

Widespread prevalence of hypoxia and the classification of hypoxic conditions in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Aquatic hypoxia within the Laurentian Great Lakes has contributed to various adverse ecological consequences and stimulated research interest in recent decades. An analysis of published peer-reviewed journal articles from 2000 to 2020 demonstrates an increasing trend of studies related to hypoxia in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, the majority of these studies (78%) focus on Lake Erie and in particular the well-documented hypolimnetic hypoxic conditions that develop in the central basin of Lake Erie. This hypoxic zone is relatively large (up to 1.5 million ha), has substantial ecological effects, and motivates monitoring programs and water quality improvement initiatives. Nonetheless, the hypoxic zone in the central basin of Lake Erie is only one of over twenty documented hypoxic zones in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Moreover, hypoxic conditions in the Great Lakes are quite diverse. Here, we define and characterize a four-fold classification of Great Lakes hypoxic conditions: 1) hypolimnetic hypoxia, 2) over-winter hypoxia, 3) diel hypoxia, and 4) episodic hypoxia. We suggest that Great Lakes research and monitoring programs should seek to more broadly document hypoxic conditions and develop models to predict the temporal and spatial occurrence of hypoxia. Such efforts are particularly timely as future climatic conditions contributing to warmer temperatures, longer and more intense stratified periods, increased spring nutrient loading and more variable allocthonous inputs are expected to exacerbate three of the four hypoxic conditions described for the Great Lakes (hypolimnetic, diel, and episodic hypoxia).     

Heterogeneity of bacterial communities within the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

We analyzed and compared the structure of bacterial communities associated with zebra mussel mantle cavity fluid, gills, and gut samples collected from Lake Loon, an inland lake in Michigan's Lower Peninsula (U.S.A.) using partial 16S rRNA gene sequencing. A total of 713 cloned 16S ribosomal gene sequences were checked for similarity to existing 16S sequences in two public databases: the Ribosomal Database Project and BLAST. Based on a 98% sequence similarity threshold, a total of 355 phylotypes belonging to 12 bacterial phyla and the phylum Bacillariophyta (diatoms) were identified in zebra mussel samples. A dominance of sequences belonging to the class γ-proteobacteria was observed in the mantle cavity clone libraries (P < 0.0001). Significant sample-specific sequence associations (P < 0.001) included members of the orders Pseudomonadales and Vibrionales in mantle cavity fluid and gut clone libraries, members of both the phylum Actinobacteria and the class δ-proteobacteria in gill clone libraries, and the Cyanobacteria/Bacillariophyta group in gut clone libraries. Furthermore, our results suggest that the zebra mussel may serve as a reservoir for facultative and opportunistic pathogenic bacteria, e.g., Clostridium spp., Flavobacterium spp. and Mycobacterium spp., for many aquatic and terrestrial animals. This work constitutes the first account of the heterogeneity of bacterial communities associated with multiple compartments within the zebra mussel. The information gained in this study significantly contributes to what is known regarding the microbial ecology of the zebra mussel and its role in disease ecology and food-web shifts in the Great Lakes ecosystem.     

Seasonal patterns for Secchi depth,chlorophyll a,total phosphorus,and nutrient limitation differ between nearshore and offshore in Lake Michigan

Data on Secchi depth, chlorophyll a, total phosphorus (TP), and nutrient status of phytoplankton were collected at five nearshore sites (11–17 m deep) and two offshore sites (>100 m) between the Grand River and Muskegon River outflows during March-December 2014–2018 to describe seasonal patterns and to compare the two depth regions in southeastern Lake Michigan. In contrast to the offshore, where spring chlorophyll a and TP concentrations declined dramatically following the dreissenid mussel expansion, the nearshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan was still characterized by low Secchi depth and elevated chlorophyll a and TP in the spring. During May, median Secchi depth was 5 times higher in the offshore than the nearshore, whereas chlorophyll a and TP were over 9 and 3 times higher in the nearshore, respectively. Even though spring chlorophyll a and TP have declined substantially at some of the nearshore sites compared to 1996, particularly the sites closest to tributary outflows, the overall yield of chlorophyll a per unit TP did not change over time in the nearshore. There were indications of P-deficiency in the nearshore in 2014–2018, but P-deficiency was even more severe in the offshore during the spring where yield of chlorophyll a per unit TP was also lower than in the nearshore. Although dreissenid mussels can be abundant in the nearshore, their populations are patchy and inputs from tributaries provide conditions that apparently dampen any potential filtering impacts of mussels in the nearshore compared to the offshore, especially during the spring.     

Deep Lake Explorer: A web application for crowdsourcing the classification of benthic underwater video from the Laurentian Great Lakes

Underwater video is increasingly used to study aspects of the Great Lakes benthos including the abundance of round goby and dreissenid mussels. The introduction of these species has resulted in major ecological shifts in the Great Lakes, but the abundance and impacts of these species have heretofore been underassessed due to limitations of monitoring methods. Underwater video (UVID) can “sample” hard bottom sites where grab samplers cannot. Efficient use of UVID data requires affordable and accurate classification and analysis tools. Deep Lake Explorer (DLE) is a web application developed to support crowdsourced classification of UVID collected in the Great Lakes. Volunteers (i.e., the crowd) used DLE to classify 199 videos collected in the Niagara River, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario for the presence of round gobies, dreissenid mussels, or aquatic vegetation, and for dominant substrate type. We compared DLE classification results to expert classification of the same videos to evaluate accuracy. DLE had the lowest agreement with expert classification for hard substrate (77%), and highest agreement for vegetation presence (90%), with intermediate agreement for round goby and mussel presence (89% and 79%, respectively). Video quality in the application, video processing, abundance of species of interest, volunteer experience, and task complexity may have affected accuracy. We provide recommendations for future crowdsourcing projects like DLE, which can increase timeliness and decrease costs for classification but may come with tradeoffs in accuracy and completeness.     

Trace element loads in the Great Lakes Basin: A reconnaissance

Water quality data for trace elements in the Great Lakes are relatively scarce, complicating the assessment of current trace element baselines and their distribution patterns. Here, we present concentration data for >40 major and trace elements in >100 samples from the Great Lakes connecting channels, surface waters, precipitation and select Canadian tributaries, to establish a high-level assessment of loading rates across the basin. Contrasting upstream-to-downstream trends were observed for the investigated trace elements, ranging from net-decreasing (>5-fold for e.g., Co, Tl, Y) to net-increasing surface water concentrations (>2-fold for e.g., Sb, U, As). Calculated loading rates reveal different, element-specific controls of runoff, connecting channel loads or precipitation on trace element occurrence. Lake-wide elemental mass-balances could be reasonably closed for conservative trace elements (e.g., Li, <53% residual) but not for others (e.g., rare earth elements with up to 5-fold discrepancies), reflective of general data scarcity and uncertainty in loading rates. In line with major water quality trends, spatial distribution patterns in Lakes Erie and Ontario display subtle near-shore to off-shore heterogeneity for a few trace elements (<1 order-of-magnitude for V or Se), but higher variability for trace elements with significant inputs derived from tributaries. This work provides important quantitative baseline data for trace elements in the Great Lakes that may help optimize surveillance and management strategies for the preservation of Great Lakes water quality.     

Relative importance of macrophyte community versus water quality variables for predicting fish assemblages in coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Fish have been shown to be sensitive indicators of environmental quality in Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Fish composition also reflects aquatic macrophyte communities, which provide them with critical habitat. Although investigators have shown that the relationship between water quality and fish community structure can be used to indicate wetland health, we speculate that this relationship is a result of the stronger, more direct relationship between water quality and macrophytes, together with the ensuing interconnection between macrophyte and fish assemblages. In this study, we use data collected from 115 Great Lakes coastal marshes to test the hypothesis that plants are better predictors of fish species composition than is water quality. First we use canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to conduct an ordination of the fish community constrained by water quality parameters. We then use co-correspondence analysis (COCA) to conduct a direct ordination of the fish community with the plant community data. By comparing the statistic ‘percent fit,’ which refers to the cumulative percentage variance of the species data, we show that plants are consistently better predictors of the fish community than are water quality variables in three separate trials: all wetlands in the Great Lakes basin (whole: 21.2% vs 14.0%; n = 60), all wetlands in Lakes Huron and Superior (Upper: 20.3% vs 18.8%; n =  32), and all wetlands in Georgian Bay and the North Channel (Georgian Bay: 18% vs 17%; n =  70). This is the largest study to directly examine plant–fish interactions in wetlands of the Great Lakes basin.     

Polymethylene-interrupted fatty acids: Biomarkers for native and exotic mussels in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Freshwater organisms synthesize a wide variety of fatty acids (FAs); however, the ability to synthesize and/or subsequently modify a particular FA is not universal, making it possible to use certain FAs as biomarkers. Herein we document the occurrence of unusual FAs (polymethylene-interrupted fatty acids; PMI-FAs) in select freshwater organisms in the Laurentian Great Lakes. We did not detect PMI-FAs in: (a) natural seston from Lake Erie and Hamilton Harbor (Lake Ontario), (b) various species of laboratory-cultured algae including a green alga (Scenedesmus obliquus), two cyanobacteria (Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and Synechococystis sp.), two diatoms (Asterionella formosa, Diatoma elongatum) and a chrysophyte (Dinobryon cylindricum) or, (c) zooplankton (Daphnia spp., calanoid or cyclopoid copepods) from Lake Ontario, suggesting that PMI-FAs are not substantively incorporated into consumers at the phytoplankton-zooplankton interface. However, these unusual FAs comprised 4-6% of total fatty acids (on a dry tissue weight basis) of native fat mucket (Lampsilis siliquoidea) and plain pocketbook (L. cardium) mussels and in invasive zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga (D. bugensis) mussels. We were able to clearly partition Great Lakes' mussels into three separate groups (zebra, quagga, and native mussels) based solely on their PMI-FA profiles. We also provide evidence for the trophic transfer of PMI-FAs from mussels to various fishes in Lakes Ontario and Michigan, further underlining the potential usefulness of PMI-FAs for tracking the dietary contribution of mollusks in food web and contaminant-fate studies.     

Genetic population structure of cisco,Coregonus artedi,in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Management of a widely distributed species can be a challenge when management priorities, resource status, and assessment methods vary across jurisdictions. For example, restoration and preservation of coregonine species diversity is a goal of management agencies across the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, management goals and the amount of information available varies across management units, making the focus for management efforts challenging to determine. Genetic data provide a spatially consistent means to assess diversity. Therefore, we examined the genetic stock structure of cisco (Coregonus artedi) in the Great Lakes where the species is still extant. Using genotype data from 17 microsatellite DNA loci, we observed low levels of population structure among collections with most contributions to overall diversity occurring among lakes. Cisco from lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and the St. Marys River could be considered single genetic populations while distinct genetic populations were observed among samples from northern Lake Huron. Significant within-lake diversity in Lake Huron is supported by populations found in embayments in northern Lake Huron. The Grand Traverse Bay population in Lake Michigan represents a distinct population with reduced levels of genetic variation when compared to other lakes. The different levels of within lake population structure we observed will be important to consider as future lake-specific management plans are developed.     

Estimation of phosphorus loads from septic systems to tributaries in the Canadian Lake Erie Basin

The contribution of septic systems to watershed nutrient loads is poorly quantified although they are often cited as potentially important nutrient sources. The study used a geospatial model to estimate P loads from septic systems to the tributaries of the Canadian Lake Erie Basin to inform Lake Erie nutrient management initiatives. There is currently no inventory of septic systems in the Lake Erie Basin (e.g., numbers and locations of septic systems). Therefore a geospatial model was developed to automatically locate individual septic systems and to use these locations to estimate P load contributions to tributaries. The model was first tested on three subwatersheds in the Canadian Lake Erie Basin before being applied across the Basin. Present-day basin-wide P load estimates reveal that: (i) only a fraction of septic effluent is currently reaching the tributaries due to slow transport and other delays, as well as (ii) P attenuation in the subsurface, range from 23 ± 11 to 68 ± 32 MT/yr. Based on these estimates, septic systems may currently contribute 1.7 ± 0.8–5 ± 2.3% of the P loads to Lake Erie from Canada. However, maximum P load estimates and transient model results show that the contribution of septic systems to P loads will increase over time as slow moving septic-derived groundwater P plumes reach tributaries if aging septic systems are not maintained. This study provides widely applicable new knowledge and methodology; as well as specific findings needed to inform nutrient and septic system management in the Lake Erie Basin.