Satellite ocean color algorithms: A review of applications to the Great Lakes

We review the literature dealing with retrievals of chlorophyll concentrations in the Great Lakes from satellite observations. Most studies show that the satellite estimates of chlorophyll concentrations are linearly related to the observed concentrations, though they tend to overestimate concentrations at lower values and underestimate them at higher values. Deviations from a consistent, accurate, linear relationship can be attributed to temporal and spatial variations in the inherent optical properties of the color producing agents in the water as well as to varying concentrations of non-algal substances that interfere with the retrievals. We confirmed these results by using a simple optical model to examine the sensitivity of the retrieved chlorophyll values to the concentrations of interfering substances and to differences in model parameters. Because the spatial and temporal optical properties of the Great Lakes are unpredictable, no retrieval method is likely to produce accurate results all the time. The papers we reviewed show that simple band ratio algorithms can provide chlorophyll estimates that are proportional to in situ concentrations. The published literature suggests that the band ratio methods will be of most value in regions where the concentrations of non-algal interfering substances are minimal. Because of these limitations we recommend that future papers presenting chlorophyll analysis based on satellite data provide confirming field observations that include measurements of chlorophyll, suspended particles and dissolved organic carbon. We also recommend that Great Lakes scientists explore novel methods for retrieving chlorophyll concentrations from satellite observations that have proven useful in other optically complex waters.     

Assessing the application of SeaWiFS ocean color algorithms to Lake Erie

The feasibility of satellite-based monitoring of phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations in Lake Erie is assessed by applying globally calibrated, ocean-derived color algorithms to spatially and temporally collocated measurements of SeaWiFS remote sensing reflectance. Satellite-based chlorophyll a retrievals were compared with fluorescence-based measurements of chlorophyll a from 68 field samples collected across the lake between 1998 and 2002. Twelve ocean-derived color algorithms, one regional algorithm derived for the Baltic Sea's Case 2 waters, and a set of regional algorithms developed for the western, central and eastern basins of Lake Erie were considered. While none of the ocean-derived algorithms performed adequately, the outlook for the success of regionally calibrated and validated algorithms, with forms similar to the ocean-derived algorithms, is promising over the eastern basin and possibly the central basin of the lake. In the western basin, each of the regional algorithms considered performed poorly, indicating that alternative approaches to algorithm development, or to satellite data screening and analysis procedures will be needed.     

Mapping cyanobacterial blooms in the Great Lakes using MODIS

Toxin-producing Cyanobacteria have been documented in Lake Erie and Ontario in the last several years. We developed algorithms to discriminate potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms from other harmless phytoplankton blooms and to extract relative phycocyanin abundances from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite data. Lee's quasi-analytical algorithm was used to calculate total absorption and backscatter from the 250 m, 500 m and 1 km bands of MODIS scenes. A non-negative least square algorithm was then utilized to discern relative concentrations of Chlorophyta (green algae), phycocyanin-rich Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), and colored dissolved organic matter and suspended sediments combined in lake waters using published absorption spectra for these components. MODIS-derived cyanobacterial concentrations and/or bloom distributions from 10 scenes acquired in the summers of 2004 and 2005 were successfully verified against contemporaneous calibrated measurements of pigments that were acquired from measurements made using continuous fluorimetric measurements of surface water (1 m depth) from six cruises, and three additional cyanobacterial blooms reported in the scientific literature between 2002 and 2006. These results demonstrate that this methodology could be used to develop a cost-effective practical screening method for rapid detection and warning of potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms in the lower Great Lakes.     

Variations in chromophoric dissolved organic matter and its influence on the use of pigment-specific fluorimeters in the Great Lakes

The variability of colored material (yellow substances, chromophoric dissolved organic matter [CDOM]) in Great Lakes water on the operation of a submersible pigment-based fluorimeter (FluoroProbe) was assessed. The FluoroProbe is designed to account for the influence of ambient CDOM on fluorimetric analysis of natural waters by using background yellow substance content to correct for fluorescence that is not due to phytoplankton. The objective of this study was to assess FluoroProbe performance as well as determine the variability of CDOM that has a bearing on instrument use. This study focused on Lakes Ontario and Huron in spring and summer and employed up to three FluoroProbes for simultaneous comparisons of performance, as assessed by comparing in situ versus extracted concentrations of chlorophyll-a. Conclusions from this study are: FluoroProbes are not equally accurate; yellow substance correction factors obtained by FluoroProbes are instrument specific; there are seasonal differences in yellow substance correction factors between summer and spring and among thermal strata in summer, in Lakes Huron and Ontario.The observed differences among yellow substance correction factors are attributed to chromophoric material that was assessed independently by measuring CDOM using a separate fluorimetric technique and by measuring in situ UV absorption coefficients. These results suggest that the use of FluoroProbes and related instruments for phytoplankton surveillance and monitoring initiatives must account for differences in ambient CDOM.     

Early observations on an emerging Great Lakes invader Hemimysis anomala in Lake Ontario

Hemimysis anomala, a Ponto-Caspian littoral mysid, is an emerging Great Lakes invader that was discovered in Lakes Michigan and Ontario in 2006. Similar to the native mysid Mysis diluviana, Hemimysis exhibits a diel vertical migration pattern but generally inhabits shallower and warmer waters than M. diluviana. Because basic information on the distribution, habitat use, and biology of Hemimysis in the Great Lakes is scarce, the potential for food web disruption by Hemimysis cannot easily be predicted. Preliminary observations indicate widespread invasion of Hemimysis in Lake Ontario. In this study, we confirm the presence of Hemimysis at sites spanning the northern and southern shores of Lake Ontario and the presence of the individuals during winter months. In one horizontal tow in November 2007, over 26,000 individuals were collected with a length range of 4.4 to 9.0 mm and an average caloric density of 611 cal/g wet weight. The most effective methods for sampling Hemimysis were horizontal tows with either a zooplankton net in the water column or a benthic sled near the lake bottom. Although more quantitative data on the life history and distribution of this species is necessary, our preliminary observations support the prediction that the potential for Hemimysis to impact the nearshore food web in Lake Ontario appears high.     

Trends in Diporeia populations across the Laurentian Great Lakes, 1997-2009

Benthic communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been in a state of flux since the arrival of dreissenid mussels, with the most dramatic changes occurring in population densities of the amphipod Diporeia. In response, the US EPA initiated an annual benthic macroinvertebrate monitoring program on all five Great Lakes in 1997. Although historically the dominant benthic invertebrate in all the lakes, no Diporeia have been found in Lake Erie during the first 13 years of our study, confirming that Diporeia is now effectively absent from that lake. Populations have almost entirely disappeared from our shallow (< 90 m) sites in lakes Ontario, Huron, and Michigan. In Lake Ontario, three of our four deep (> 90 m) sites still supported Diporeia populations in 2009, with densities at those sites ranging between 96 and 198/m². In Lake Michigan, populations were still found at six of our seven deep sites in 2009, with densities ranging from 57 to 1409/m². Densities of Diporeia in 2009 at the four deep sites in Lake Huron were somewhat lower than those in Lake Michigan, ranging from 191 to 720/m². Interannual changes in population size in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have shown a degree of synchrony across most sites, with periods of rapid decline (1997-2000, 2003-2004) alternating with periods of little change or even increase (2001-2002, 2005-2009). There has been no evidence of directional trends at any sites in Lake Superior, although substantial interannual variability was seen.     

First Report of the Asian Fish Tapeworm in the Great Lakes

The Asian fish tapeworm (Bothriocephalus acheilognathi) is an introduced species that has spread throughout much of the United States and into Canada. This cestode was found in a specimen of bluntnose minnow (Pimephales notatus) collected from Grosse Îsle in the Detroit River in September, 2002. This parasite is a known pathogen that can cause weight loss, anemia, and mortality in young fishes. This is the first report of B. acheilognathi in the Great Lakes.     

Relationship of road density and marsh condition to turtle assemblage characteristics in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Human-induced degradation of coastal wetlands often leads to altered trophic dynamics and species assemblages. Here we use data from 77 coastal marshes in three Laurentian Great Lakes collected between 2001 and 2007 to examine the relationship between human disturbance (road density and wetland quality) and characteristics of aquatic turtle assemblages, including species richness and abundances. Painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) were encountered disproportionately in degraded wetlands and the probability of occurrence decreased with improved site quality. Abundance of painted turtles peaked, however, at intermediate road density in surrounding 1- and 2-km buffers. Across all sites, species richness was highest and common snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) were most abundant in wetlands with intermediate water quality. The common musk turtle (Sternotherus odoratus) was absent from degraded wetlands in the lower lakes (Erie and Ontario) that fell within their historical range, but reached high abundances in marshes of Georgian Bay and the North Channel, a region with relatively low human disturbance. Analysis of sex ratios in painted turtles revealed a significant male bias in an area with high road density, while the sex ratio did not differ significantly from 1:1 in a less developed region, consistent with reports of high female mortality in urban areas.     

Metazoan Parasites of Introduced Round and Tubenose Gobies in the Great Lakes: Support for the “Enemy Release Hypothesis”

Recent invasion theory has hypothesized that newly established exotic species may initially be free of their native parasites, augmenting their population success. Others have hypothesized that invaders may introduce exotic parasites to native species and/or may become hosts to native parasites in their new habitats. Our study analyzed the parasites of two exotic Eurasian gobies that were detected in the Great Lakes in 1990: the round goby Apollonia melanostoma and the tubenose goby Proterorhinus semilunaris. We compared our results from the central region of their introduced ranges in Lakes Huron, St. Clair, and Erie with other studies in the Great Lakes over the past decade, as well as Eurasian native and nonindigenous habitats. Results showed that goby-specific metazoan parasites were absent in the Great Lakes, and all but one species were represented only as larvae, suggesting that adult parasites presently are poorly-adapted to the new gobies as hosts. Seven parasitic species are known to infest the tubenose goby in the Great Lakes, including our new finding of the acanthocephalan Southwellina hispida, and all are rare. We provide the first findings of four parasite species in the round goby and clarified two others, totaling 22 in the Great Lakes—with most being rare. In contrast, 72 round goby parasites occur in the Black Sea region. Trematodes are the most common parasitic group of the round goby in the Great Lakes, as in their native Black Sea range and Baltic Sea introduction. Holarctic trematode Diplostomum spathaceum larvae, which are one of two widely distributed species shared with Eurasia, were found in round goby eyes from all Great Lakes localities except Lake Huron proper. Our study and others reveal no overall increases in parasitism of the invasive gobies over the past decade after their establishment in the Great Lakes. In conclusion, the parasite “load” on the invasive gobies appears relatively low in comparison with their native habitats, lending support to the “enemy release hypothesis.”     

Investigation of viruses in Diporeia spp. from the Laurentian Great Lakes and Owasco Lake as potential stressors of declining populations

The benthic amphipod Diporeia is an ecologically and biogeochemically important constituent of deep freshwater lakes in North America. The proliferation of dreissenid mussels in the mid-1990s coincided with a sharp decrease in Diporeia populations in several Laurentian Great Lakes; however the ultimate cause and mechanisms of their decline are still unknown. Here we examined the composition of DNA viruses associated with Diporeia collected from populations of Lake Michigan that had declined and stable populations in Lake Superior and Owasco Lake (Finger Lake in central New York State). Viral metagenomic libraries from Owasco Lake and Lake Superior were comprised primarily of bacteriophages, which may infect bacteria within the amphipod microbiome. In contrast, the metagenomic library from Lake Michigan contained well-represented ssDNA circular viral genomes. The prevalence and viral load of one putative Type V ssDNA circular virus (LM29173) that recruited almost 30% of total viral sequence reads in the Lake Michigan library was analyzed by quantitative PCR. The prevalence of LM29173 was over two orders of magnitude greater in Lake Michigan compared to the other two lakes. Although further research is necessary to establish the pathology and epidemiological extent of viral-Diporeia interactions, our data suggest that viruses may be numerically significant constituents of the Diporeia microbiome, and if pathogenic some of these viruses may be a stressor of Great Lakes Diporeia populations. Our data further indicate that special attention should be given to the circovirus that was prevalent in the declining Michigan population but uncommon in the other two lakes.     

Detection and expression of genes for phosphorus metabolism in picocyanobacteria from the Laurentian Great Lakes

The pelagic regions of Lake Superior and eastern Lake Erie (Laurentian Great Lakes) are typically phosphorus (P)-limited environments, and picocyanobacteria of the genus Synechococcus spp. are prominent primary producers during the summer. As a proxy for their utilization of organic P, the expression of two genes, phnD and phoX, was monitored. The phnD gene encodes the phosphonate binding protein of the ABC-type phosphonate transporter, whereas the phoX gene encodes a calcium-dependent alkaline phosphatase. Furthermore, to assess the ability of freshwater Synechococcus spp. to substitute sulfolipids for phospholipids, sqdX gene (cyanobacterial sulfolipid synthase) expression was examined. We employed PCR primers to detect the presence of all three genes in the endemic Synechococcus spp., and RT-PCR assays of cultured freshwater strains and environmental samples to assess the degree of P-stress in the phytoplankton. We show that the phnD gene was constitutively expressed, suggesting that freshwater picocyanobacteria were metabolizing exogenous phosphonate compounds in Lakes Erie and Superior. By contrast, phoX was regulated by P bioavailability. We also provide evidence that sqdX is expressed during increased growth rates in phosphorus-replete conditions, suggesting that sulfolipid synthesis is not a P conservation mechanism for freshwater Synechococcus spp.     

Bio-optical properties and primary production of Lake Michigan: Insights from 13-years of SeaWiFS imagery

Thirteen years of SeaWiFS data (1998–2010) from the early spring isothermal period (March–April) were used to determine trends of water attenuation coefficient (K_dPAR), chlorophyll a (Chl a), Photosynthetic Available Radiation (PAR), and modeled primary production in southern Lake Michigan. Surface PAR values remained unchanged between 1998 and 2010, but there was an 18–22% drop in K_dPAR during the March/April isothermal period as water clarity increased. This transparency increase was accompanied by a 41–53% decline in Chl a concentration (μg · L^− 1) and a 42–46% decline in modeled primary production (Great Lakes Primary Production Model). These changes were most pronounced in 2001–2003 which coincided with the period of initial colonization of the quagga mussels. Statistically significant spatial differences were noted in Chl a (μg · L^− 1) concentrations between mid-depth (z = 30–90 m deep), and offshore (z > 90 m deep) waters. Chl a concentrations in the mid-depth region (30–90 m) decreased at a higher rate compared to offshore waters (> 90 m) likely as a result of filtration activities of quagga mussel.     

Distribution and abundance of nesting common and Caspian terns on the North American Great Lakes, 1976 to 1999

Canadian and US federal wildlife agencies completed three surveys (1976–1980, 1989–1991, and 1997–2000) to census colonial waterbirds breeding on the Great Lakes. We here summarize and comment on nest numbers and colony site distribution of common terns (Sterna hirundo) and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). Common terns are in serious trouble on the Great Lakes. Numbers declined with substantial losses in nests (− 19.1%) and colony sites (− 23.2%) between the first and third censuses. An increase in numbers at US sites (+ 26.6%) did not compensate for losses (− 33.1%) at Canadian sites. Caspian terns increased in nest numbers (+ 65.9%) and colony sites (+ 50.0%) over the same period. The increase at US sites (136.5%) was greater than at Canadian sites (11.5%). Most (70.7%, n = 186) common tern sites had nests during only one census; 17 sites (6.5%) had nests during all censuses. In contrast, 9 of 33 (27.2%) Caspian tern sites had nests during all censuses and contained a majority of nests (50–82%) in each census. Pairs of both species nested on natural substrates across the Great Lakes. Common terns nested mostly on artificial (human-constructed) substrates on the lower Great Lakes. We identify site characteristics that may have contributed to long-term (three census) occupancy by common terns (small size, artificial substrates, absence of ring-billed gulls) and Caspian terns (natural substrates on large, remote islands). We suggest an urgent need for protection and conservation of common tern colonies and identify specific priority sites for implementation of management protocols.     

Distribution of nuisance Cladophora in the lower Great Lakes: Patterns with land use, near shore water quality and dreissenid abundance

Selected shorelines and offshore shoals in Lakes Erie, Huron and Ontario were surveyed with a high frequency hydroacoustic system to investigate current spatial patterns of nuisance benthic filamentous algal (e.g., Cladophora) cover and stand height. Cladophora reached nuisance levels at all sites in Lakes Erie and Ontario, but not in Lake Huron or Georgian Bay. Despite clear gradients in coastal land cover, near shore water quality gradients were generally weak, and for Lakes Erie and Ontario, measures of near shore water quality were similar to that at offshore shoals. Hierarchical partitioning analysis suggested that while dreissenid mussel abundance appeared to be important in determining the magnitude of Cladophora standing crop, the joint contribution of catchment land cover, near shore water quality (nutrient levels and suspended matter) and dreissenid mussel abundance explained nearly 95% of the total variance in nuisance Cladophora standing crop observed in this study. Although the results from this study are necessarily correlative in nature and definition of causal relationships is not possible, these results provide corroborating evidence from sites across a gradient within and across the lower Great Lakes that is consistent with the operation of the near shore shunt model.     

Trends in Water Clarity of the Lower Great Lakes from Remotely Sensed Aquatic Color

Satellite observations of aquatic colour enable environmental monitoring of the Great Lakes at spatial and temporal scales not obtainable through ground-based monitoring. By merging data from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), monthly binned images of water-leaving radiance over the Great Lakes have been produced for the periods 1979–1985 and 1998–2006. This time-series can be interpreted in terms of changes in water clarity, showing seasonal and inter-annual variability of bright-water episodes such as phytoplankton blooms, re-suspension of bottom sediments, and whiting events. Variations in Secchi disk depth over Lakes Erie and Ontario are predicted using empirical relationships from coincident measurements of water transparency and remotely-sensed water-leaving radiance. Satellite observations document the extent to which the water clarity of the lower Great Lakes has changed over the last three decades in response to significant events including the invasion of zebra mussels. Results confirm dramatic reductions in Lake Ontario turbidity in the years following mussel colonization, with a doubling of estimated Secchi depths. Evidence confirms a reduction in the frequency/intensity of whiting events in agreement with suggestions of the role of calcium uptake by mussels on lake water clarity. Increased spring-time water clarity in the eastern basin of Lake Erie also corroborates previous observations in the region. Despite historical reports of localised increases in transparency in the western basin immediately following the mussel invasion, image analysis shows a significant increase in turbidity between the two study periods, in agreement with more recent reports of longer term trends in water clarity. Through its capacity to provide regular and readily interpretable synoptic views of regions undergoing significant environmental change, this work illustrates the value of remotely sensing water colour to water clarity monitoring in the lower Great Lakes.     

Shifting status and distribution of range margin chorus frog (Pseudacris) populations in eastern Great Lakes watersheds

Contiguous with their range across major rivers into Canada, two different species of chorus frogs are now thought to inhabit the Great Lakes watersheds of New York. Pseudacris triseriata is found along the western Lake Ontario and Lake Erie plains while P. maculata (tentatively a new frog species in NY) inhabits the lowlands of eastern Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. Both species are on their extreme range margins in NY. In 2010 we detected distributional declines of both putative chorus frog species based on a broad survey following standardized occupancy detection protocols. Causes are unclear but could relate to reforestation and urbanization of formerly more extensive agricultural lands, climate change, pathogenic fungal outbreaks and/or the contaminant effects of intensive agriculture. On the other hand, the prior overestimation of ranges because of misidentification may have inflated earlier perceived distributions (positive survey bias) because false positives are problematical for this cryptic frog. At broad geographical scales, chorus frog (meta)populations are highly dynamic and are likely shifting their ranges in response to rapidly changing overall environmental conditions in the northeastern U.S. and Canada.     

Great Lakes Cladophora in the 21st century: same algae—different ecosystem

Nuisance growth of the attached, green alga Cladophora was considered to have been abated by phosphorus management programs mandated under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The apparent resurgence of nuisance growth in Lakes Erie, Michigan and Ontario has been linked conceptually to ecosystem alterations engineered by invasive dreissenid mussels (Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissenabugensis). Here, we apply contemporary modeling tools and historical water quality data sets in quantifying the impact of long-term changes in phosphorus loading and dreissenid-mediated changes in water clarity on the distribution and production of Cladophora. It is concluded that reductions in phosphorus loading in the pre-dreissenid period achieved the desired effect, as model simulations were consistent with the biomass declines reported from the early 1970s to the early 1980s. These declines were, however, largely offset by dreissenid-driven changes in water clarity that extended the depth of colonization by Cladophora, increasing total production. We were not able to isolate and quantify the significance of dreissenid mediation of phosphorus cycling using the historical database. Phosphorus management remains the appropriate mechanism for reducing nuisance levels of Cladophora growth. The development of action plans will require an improved understanding of nearshore phosphorus dynamics such as might be obtained through regular monitoring of soluble reactive phosphorus levels, internal phosphorus content and Cladophora biomass in impacted nearshore regions of the Great Lakes.     

Factors governing the distribution and fish-community associations of the round goby in Michigan tributaries of the Laurentian Great Lakes

The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is increasingly being reported in tributaries of the Laurentian Great Lakes where these fish have been shown to adversely impact native stream biota. Determining the characteristics and distribution of invaded streams are the first steps toward effective round goby management. We sampled 30 tributaries in the Great Lakes basin and characterized each in terms of nine physical reach-scale attributes. Round goby were detected in 14 streams where abundances ranged from 4% to 53% of the fish sampled in each stream. Round goby was the single most abundant fish species sampled, constituting 14% of all fish encountered across all sites, and 30% of individuals in round goby-present sites. Round goby-present sites were larger, had lower channel slopes, less large wood, and less canopy cover than round goby-absent sites, suggesting that these attributes may promote round goby establishment. Mottled sculpin, cyprinids, brook stickleback, white sucker and rainbow trout were associated with goby absence while centrarchids, percids, yellow bullhead, and mud minnow were associated round goby presence. Collectively these results demonstrate that round goby are widespread in eastern Michigan tributaries to the Great Lakes, present in streams with a range of physical habitat characteristics, and that round goby presence is associated with certain fish species.     

Historical changes and current status of crayfish diversity and distribution in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Despite increasing recognition of the importance of invertebrates, and specifically crayfish, to nearshore food webs in the Laurentian Great Lakes, past and present ecological studies in the Great Lakes have predominantly focused on fishes. Using data from many sources, we provide a summary of crayfish diversity and distribution throughout the Great Lakes from 1882 to 2008 for 1456 locations where crayfish have been surveyed. Sampling effort was greatest in Lake Michigan, followed by lakes Huron, Erie, Superior, and Ontario. A total of 13 crayfish species occur in the lakes, with Lake Erie having the greatest diversity (n = 11) and Lake Superior having the least (n = 5). Five crayfish species are non-native to one or more lakes. Because Orconectes rusticus was the most widely distributed non-native species and is associated with known negative impacts, we assessed its spread throughout the Great Lakes. Although O. rusticus has been found for over 100 years in Lake Erie, its spread there has been relatively slow compared to that in lakes Michigan and Huron, where it has spread most rapidly since the 1990s and 2000, respectively. O. rusticus has been found in both lakes Superior and Ontario for 22 and 37 years, respectively, and has expanded little in either lake. Our broad spatial and temporal assessment of crayfish diversity and distribution provides a baseline for future nearshore ecological studies, and for future management efforts to restore native crayfish and limit non-native introductions and their impact on food web interactions.     

Development and Evaluation of a New Predictive Model for Metamorphosis of Great Lakes Larval Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) Populations

Accurate forecasts of the number of larval sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) within a stream that will enter into metamorphosis are critical to currently used methods for allocating lampricide treatments among streams in the Great Lakes basin. To improve our ability to predict metamorphosis we used a mark-recapture technique, involving the marking of individual larval lamprey with sequentially coded wire tags, to combine information regarding individual and stream level parameters collected in year t, with direct observations of metamorphic outcome of lamprey recaptured in year t+1. We used these data to fit predictive models of metamorphosis. The best model demonstrated excellent predictive capabilities and highlighted the importance of weight, age, larval density, stream temperature and geographic location in determining when individual lamprey are likely to transform. While this model was informative, it required data whose measures are not practical to obtain routinely during the larval sea lamprey assessment program. A second model, limited to data inputs that can be easily obtained, was developed and included length of larvae the fall prior to metamorphosis, stream latitude and longitude, drainage area, average larval density in type-2 habitat, and stream lamprey production category (a measure of the regularity with which treatments are required). This model accurately predicted metamorphosis 20% more often than current models of metamorphosis; however, we recommend further validation on an independent set of streams before adoption by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission for ranking streams.