高坝水库放空要求及设施设计研究

高坝水库调节能力强,在流域梯级开发和防灾减灾中发挥重要作用,但其面临的风险也客观存在,一旦失事后果不堪设想。水库放空或降水位能力是经济社会发展新阶段对大坝风险防控和应急管理提出的新要求。本文给出水库放空的定义、目的及分类,系统阐述了放空水头比、放空库容比、库水位降速等水库放空能力评价指标,梳理了国内外对水库放空的要求,选取我国25座典型高坝水库进行放空能力分析。结果表明：高坝水库放空水头比介于17.5%～71.8%,均值为42.7%;放空库容比介于47.2%～99.2%,均值为81.7%;放空时间介于7.2～123 d,均值为42.7 d;库水降速介于0.71～9.03 m/d,均值为3.0 m/d。从实践来看,高坝水库放空能力受总库容、放空水位、坝型等工程特性参数影响,也受河流形态、河谷形状和库盆特点等因素影响。据此对水库放空设施设计中的入库流量、放空指标、启动条件和分级决策模式等关键问题进行了分析,对我国水利水电工程行业水库放空设施设计和应急管理有一定参考意义。     

Modelling Intelligent Water Resources Allocation for Multi-users

This study proposes intelligent water resources allocation strategies for multiple users through hybrid artificial intelligence techniques implemented for reservoir operation optimization and water shortage rate estimation. A two-fold scheme is developed for (1) knowledge acquisition through searching input–output patterns of optimal reservoir operation by optimization methods and (2) the inference system through mapping the current input pattern to estimate the water shortage rate by artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan is the study case. We first design nine possible water demand conditions by investigating the changes in historical water supply. With the nine designed conditions and 44-year historical 10-day reservoir inflow data collected during the growth season (3 months) of the first paddy crop, we first conduct the optimization search of reservoir operation by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) in consideration of agricultural and public water demands simultaneously. The simulation method is used as a comparative model to the NSGA-II. Results demonstrate that the NSGA-II can suitably search the optimal water allocation series and obtain much lower seasonal water shortage rates than those of the simulation method. Then seasonal water shortage rates in response to future water demands for both sectors are estimated by using the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is adopted as a comparative model to the ANFIS. During model construction, future water demands, predicted monthly inflows (or seasonal inflow) of the reservoir in the next coming quarter and historical initial reservoir storages configure the input patterns while the optimal seasonal water shortage rates obtained from the NSGA-II serve as output targets (training targets) for both neural networks. Results indicate that the ANFIS and the BPNN models produce almost equally good performance in estimating water shortage rates, yet the ANFIS model produces even better stability. The reliability of the proposed scheme is further examined by scenario analysis. The scenario analysis indicates that an increase in public water demand or a decrease in agricultural water demand would bring more impacts of water supply on agricultural sectors than public sectors. Similarly, a bigger decrease in inflow amount would obviously bring more influence on agricultural sectors than public one. Consequently, given predicted inflow, decision makers can pre-experience the possible outcomes in response to competing water demands through the estimation models in order to determine adequate water supply as well as preparedness measures, if needed, for drought mitigation.     

淮河洪汝河流域“多水源—多用户”供水联合调度模型研究及应用

以洪汝河流域为研究对象,基于水库、河道、地下水、区域地表水及其他水资源5类供水水源与12个需水区、县单元的“多水源—多用户”的水资源配置方案,构建系统模拟模型,并进行可视化软件开发。模型采用流域内1997年1月至2006年12月实测降雨资料计算的分区来水成果和通过需水预测得到的2030年水平需水量进行模拟计算,通过供水保障程度等计算结果评价模拟模型和水资源配置方案的合理性,另外软件通过可调节参数的设定增加模型的适应性。结果验证表明,本模型对于研究洪汝河流域区域水资源供、需平衡关系及既有水资源配置方案的合理性,以及模拟预测各年型区域水资源配置保障程度有很好的效果。     

Water Management of Irrigation Dams Considering Climate Variation: Case Study of Zayandeh-rud Reservoir, Iran

Dependency of reservoir operation on the climate variation occurs especially in regions, where agricultural demand has a significant share of the total water demands. The variability between demands that are based on annual climate conditions may be larger than the uncertainty associated with other explanatory variables in long-term operation of an irrigation dam. This paper proposed a rule curves to the water managers of the Zayandeh-rud reservoir in Iran in long-lead reservoir operation. A regional optimal allocation of water among different crops and irrigation units is developed. The optimal allocation model is coupled with a reservoir operating model, which is developed based on the certain hedging that deals with the available water and the water demands mutually. This coupled model is able to activate restrictions on allocating water to agricultural demands considering variation of inflow to the reservoir, variation of demands and the economic value of allocating water among different crops and irrigation units. The resulted rule curve is presented with a number of tables for more details and accuracy and a simple curve, which is more useful for operational purpose.     

Optimization of Hydraulic-Hydrologic Complex System of Reservoirs and Connecting Tunnel

Nowadays, population growth, environmental constraints and climate change can adversely affect our water supply systems’ ability to keep up with demand. Due to lack of unsuitable distribution and dispersion of water resources, precipitation, soil resources, etc., inter-basin transfers of water could be a solution in order to balancing between supply and demand water in different areas. In this study, the optimal designing of water conveyance from basin No-1 to basin No-2 is investigated. Water is transferred between these two dams by tunnel structure. Since the water flow through the tunnel is under pressure, increasing dam height will cause the decrease of tunnel diameter for constant water conveyance efficiency. The purpose of this study is transferring 95 % of water flow between two basins after supplying the agriculture consumption and environmental needs. Therefore, the mathematical program was developed first to solve the governing equations of water balance of reservoir and hydraulic of tunnel. Then, various strategies including different diameters of tunnel and dam height were considered and finally the best strategy from economic and technical viewpoint was proposed. The results showed that dam height of 151.2 m and tunnel diameter of 3.2 m are the economic options to convey of 95 % of the water.     

A Stochastic Non-linear Programming Model for a Multi-period Water Resource Allocation with Multiple Objectives

A rapid increase in demand and severe droughts in recent years has increased the pressure on water supplies throughout most parts of Australia. This has resulted in the need for tools to allocate limited water across users in different regions, and explore scenarios so as to achieve economic, social and environmental benefits. A major challenge in water resource allocation is dealing with the uncertainty in the system, particularly with respect to reservoir inflow. Stochastic non-linear programming is applied to water resource allocation to accommodate this uncertainty across the time periods of the planning horizon. A large range of solutions is produced representing the distributions of uncertainty in reservoir inflow. These solutions are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the trade-off in amounts of water allocated versus risk of not achieving minimal reservoir levels. The methodology is applied to a case study in South East Queensland in Australia, a region which is currently facing a severe water shortage over the next 3 years. A new water supply initiative that the Queensland State Government is considering to overcome the water crisis is assessed using the methodology.     

高喷灌浆技术在卵砾石层地下水库构筑中的应用

以烟台市夹河地下水库工程为例，采 用高喷灌浆技术的半圆相向对喷和双排摆喷菱形结构的新的施工方案，成功地在夹河卵砾石 层中构筑了地下水库截渗坝工程。在分析场地水文地质工程地质条件的基础上，研究了 地下水库截渗坝的结构形式与工程布置，探讨了施工工艺和质量控制问题。     

狭长型水库蓄水至初期运行阶段水温演化规律研究

高拱坝建成后,上游将形成典型的狭长河道型水库,水库水温分层变化规律与大坝结构安全密切相关,对其进行跟踪反馈研究具有重要意义。本文基于溪洛渡水库近4年的水库水温及相关监测资料,同时考虑水库的实际地形信息、气象资料、水文资料和调度资料,引入CE-QUAL-W2模型,实现了水库从开始蓄水到初期运行阶段的水库水温模拟,计算结果与实测数据吻合良好,验证了水动力模型CE-QUAL-W2的适用性。研究结果表明,由于溪洛渡水库河道狭长且水深较深的特殊性,水库在初期蓄水成库过程中,水温一直与河水温度基本相同,水库蓄水接近正常水位后,将逐渐形成4个明显的区域:水位变动区、温度不稳定区、温度过渡区和温度相对稳定区,不同区域水温随季节变化的特性不同。其中,库底温度基本保持稳定,过渡区温度也相对稳定,主要受低温季节来水温度影响。研究结论可为类似高拱坝工程结构设计考虑温度荷载时提供参考。     

Assessment of Water Resources Development Projects under Conditions of Climate Change Using Efficiency Indexes (EIs)

The purpose of this study is to evaluate Gharanghu multi-purpose reservoir system (East Azerbaijan, Iran) using efficiency indexes (EIs) affected by climate change. At first, the effects of climate change on inflow to the reservoir, as well as changes in the demand volume over a time interval of 30 years (2040–2069) are reviewed. Simulation results show that inflow to the reservoir is decreased in climate change interval compared to the baseline interval (1971–2000), so that comparison of long-term average monthly inflow to the reservoir in climate change interval is reduced about 25% compared to the baseline. Also, water demand in climate change interval will increase, namely volume of water demand for agricultural, drinking and industrial, and environmental in climate change interval is expected to increase by 20%. The simulation results of the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model is used to determine EIs of multi-purpose reservoir system. Next, three scenarios of water supply for climate change interval are introduced to WEAP model, keeping variable of parameter related to water demand volume (based on different percentages of supply) and keeping constant of the parameter related to the volume of inflow to the reservoir. Results show that system EIs in climate change interval will have a disadvantage compared to the baseline. So that, reliability, vulnerability, resiliency and flexibility indexes in climate change interval based on 100% of water supply compared to the baseline will decrease 18%, increase 150%, decrease 33%, and decrease 47%, respectively. These indexes based on 85% of supply compared to the baseline will decrease 12%, increase 75%, decrease 30%, and decrease 39%, respectively. Also, those based on 70% of supply compared to the baseline will decrease 1%, will be without change, decrease 18%, and decrease 18%, respectively. Changes in indexes in future interval indicate the need to manage water resource development projects in the basin.     

关于黄河黑山峡河段开发方式的争议和意见

地域、社会经济和自然资源的划分配置，使甘、宁两省(区)分别拥有小观音和大柳树低坝水电站，可各自承担水库淹没和搬迁，资源和淹没互相补偿，地质和坝高相互适应，各有利弊，各得其所。黑山峡水库建在龙(羊峡)库之前与建在龙库之后，其水库的作用有明显的差异。从龙、刘(家峡)两库联合运用18a的实际情况可以看出，刘库实质上已起到了黑库承上启下的反调节作用，目前不存在水资源配置难以满足要求的问题。目前甘、宁省(区)都需要发展电力，如由两省(区)对各自拥有的河段自主开发利用，效益将十分显著。     

Probabilistic Model for the Representation of the Reservoir Water Level of Concrete Dams During Normal Operation Periods

The dam’s reservoir water level varies over the year according to the water inflow and outflow, as a function of environmental events but also of dam exploitation management policy and human decisions. In the Portuguese dam safety regulation (RSB 2007), the normal water level (NWL) is considered as the optimum exploitation level. However, as proved by the continuous monitoring over the lifetime of a set of dams, the NWL is occasionally exceeded for non-negligible time periods. The reservoir water level, to which the water pressure on the upstream face is related, is a fundamental parameter for the safety and reliability analysis of concrete dams. When water-induced actions are considering the leading loads, only the maximum reservoir water level, usually associated with a high-return-period flood, is relevant. However, for other combinations, in particular, earthquake scenarios, the consideration of the variability of the water level over time is crucial. In reliability analysis of concrete dams, the reservoir water level has been considered either as a deterministic variable, once the loading scenario analyzed assume water-induced actions as leading loads (Westberg 2010), or as a random variable defined using hydrological site information of a specific study case (Altarejos et al. Structural Safety 36-37:1–13 2012). This work proposes a probabilistic model of the reservoir water level of any new dam based only on its geometrical properties, which provides a low-cost alternative to in-depth hydrological analysis. The proposed model can be useful in two stages of the lifecycle of dams: (i) initial design and feasibility stages, and (ii) routine safety assessment of existing structures, as in both stages the costs of a complete hydrological analysis is too high for the level of detail required. For that, the recorded reservoir water level of 27 Portuguese large concrete dams is used. A normalized sinusoidal model, with annual period, is adjusted to the reservoir water level annual history of those dams by beta regression. Generally, a good agreement between observations and the proposed model, for most of the annual adjustments, was achieved. The distribution parameters of the random variables were estimated through the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. The physical, model and statistical uncertainties were quantified and can now be included in a reliability analysis procedure.     

Risk and uncertainty analysis for dam overtopping – Case study: The Doroudzan Dam,Iran

There is a growing tendency to assess the safety levels of existing dams by using mathematical and statistical methods. In this study, the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping is presented for Doroudzan Reservoir located at the south part of Iran. The main objective of the overtopping analysis of dams is estimating the height of water in the reservoir under various inflows and comparing the computed results with the dam crest elevation. Hence, the main steps of this study include univariate flood frequency analysis of annual maximum inflows to estimate the peak flows in various return periods, generate inflow hydrographs based on the estimated peak flows, and route the hydrographs through the reservoir to compute the maximum height of the water in reservoir. In this study, the spillway discharge coefficient, quantile of peak flows, and initial water surface level are subject to uncertainty, and the Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) are applied to perform the uncertainty analysis. In addition to inflows, the effect of different wind speeds on the probability of overtopping has been considered. The results demonstrated that both increasing water level and wind speed have significant impact on the risk of overflowing.     

Improving ANFIS Based Model for Long-term Dam Inflow Prediction by Incorporating Monthly Rainfall Forecasts

The necessity of long-term dam inflow forecast has been recognized for many years. Despite numerous studies, the accurate long-term dam inflow prediction is still a challenging task. This paper presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based model and evaluates the applicability of categorical rainfall forecast for improvement of monthly dam inflow prediction. In order to obtain appropriate ANFIS model configuration for dam inflow prediction, several models were trained and tested using various numbers of input variables i.e. monthly observed rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, dam inflow and categorical monthly rainfall forecast. The ANFIS based models were configured and evaluated for six major dams of South Korea i.e. Andong, Chungju, Daecheong, Guesan, Soyang and Sumjin having high, medium and low reservoir capacity. The results showed significant improvement in dam inflow prediction for all the selected dams using the ANFIS based model with categorical rainfall forecast compared to the ANFIS based model with only preceding month’s dam inflow and weather data.     

国家级南沙新区双水源战略下的供水新格局

概述了南沙新区功能定位提出的双水源战略需求,研究构建新的供水格局,并提出以新建的高新沙平原水库作为枢纽节点,沙湾水道与西江双水源互连互通的水资源配置方案,同时利用双水源互补、高新沙平原水库安全储备的应急备用水源保障方案。该供水格局不仅可以解决未来供需矛盾,而且在该地区进一步优化区域水资源配置、加强水资源安全储备、维持社会稳定和区域经济发展方面发挥不可或缺的作用。     

Analysis of the hydrological safety of dams combining two numerical tools:Iber and DualSPHysics

The upgrade of the hydrological safety of dams is a critical issue to avoid failures that can dramatically affect people and assets. This paper shows a numerical methodology to analyse the safety of the Belesar dam(NW, Spain) based on two different numerical codes. First, a mesh-based code named Iber, suited to deal with large 2-D domains, is used to simulate the impoundment. The initial conditions and the inlet provided to Iber correspond to the maximum water elevation and the maximum expected inflow to the impoundment defined in the technical specifications of the dam, which are associated to the more hazardous operation conditions of the dam. Iber provides information about the time needed for water to attain the crest of the dam when floodgates are closed. In addition, it also provides the velocity of discharge when gates are opened. Then, a mesh-free code named DualSPHysics, which is especially suited to deal with complex and violent 3-D flows, is used to reproduce the behaviour of one of the spillways of the dam starting from the results obtained with Iber, which are used as inlet conditions for DualSPHysics. The combined results of both model show that the left spillway can discharge the surplus of water associated to the maximum inflow to the reservoir if the gates of the spillways are opened before the overtopping of the dam was observed. In addition, water depth measured on the spillway is considerably lower than the lateral walls, preventing overtopping. Finally, velocities at different points of the spillway showed to be in good agreement with theoretical values.     

Toledo Bend reservoir and geomorphic response in the lower Sabine River

Downstream geomorphic responses of stream channels to dams are complex, variable, and difficult to predict, apparently because the effects of local geological, hydrological, and operational details confound and complicate efforts to apply models and generalizations to individual streams. This sort of complex geomorphic response characterizes the Sabine River, along the Texas and Louisiana border, downstream of the Toledo Bend dam and reservoir. Toledo Bend controls the flow of water and essentially prevents the flux of sediment from three‐quarters of the drainage basin to the lower Sabine River. Although the channel is scoured immediately downstream of the dam, further downstream there is little evidence of major changes in sediment transport or deposition, sand supply, or channel morphology attributable to the impoundment. Channels are actively shifting, banks are eroding, and sandbars are migrating, but not in any discernibly different way than before the dam was constructed. The Sabine River continues to transport sand downstream, and alluvial floodplains continue to accrete. The relatively small geomorphic response can be attributed to several factors. While dam releases are unnaturally flashy and abrupt on a day‐to‐day basis, the long‐term pattern of releases combined with some downstream smoothing creates a flow regime in the lower basin which mimics the pre‐dam regime, at least at monthly and annual time scales. Sediment production within the lower Sabine basin is sufficient to satisfy the river's sediment transport capacity and maintain pre‐dam alluvial sedimentation regimes. Toledo Bend reservoir has a capacity: annual inflow ratio of 1.2 and impounds 74% of the Sabine drainage basin, yet there has been minimal geomorphic response in the lower river, which may seem counterintuitive. However, the complex linked geomorphic processes of discharge, sediment transport and loads, tributary inputs, and channel erosion include interactions which might increase as well as decrease sediment loads. Furthermore, if a stream is transport‐limited before impoundment, the reduced sediment supply after damming may have limited impact. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

金沙江典型水库水温影响因素敏感性分析

在拱坝温度应力计算等领域,库水温是重要的边界条件,对其计算精度要求较高,尤其对于高拱坝上游库水温而言,需要进行详细研究。库水温的影响因素较多,如河道的类型、水库的来水流量、来水温度、气象条件等,如何合理考虑各项因素对库水温分布的影响,对于计算的精确度意义重大。利用横向平均的二维水动力模型来研究金沙江上向家坝、溪洛渡、白鹤滩、乌东德等4座水动力特征相似水库的水温时空动态分布,并以典型水库溪洛渡为例,对该水库的来水流量、来水温度和气象条件等因素进行敏感性分析。研究成果可为后续几座水库的水温计算分析提供参考。     

A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

In this paper, by using the concept of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a Leader-Follower game (LFG) based multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine the optimum 12-month operation policy of a reservoir in potential future dry periods. The minimization of CVaRs of storage loss and agricultural and environmental deficits along with maximization of planned allocation to agricultural sector are considered as leader’s objectives, while the followers try to maximize their share of water rights using Nash bargaining (NB) method. This framework is then used to model the operation policy of Dorudzan basin in Fars province, southwestern Iran. Water demand and daily climate data in the period of 2003 to 2015 for this basin, as well as future projections from fifteen IPCC-AR4 global circulation models (GCMs) for 2018–2030 under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios are considered to evaluate future dam operation policies. Future projections are downscaled using the LARS-WG model, which then feeds the HMETS watershed model to simulate the corresponding reservoir inflow time-series. Thereafter, three-hundred 12-month rainfall, evaporation and inflow time series with least inflow volume are used as input for the optimization model, which is solved using NSGA-II and GA algorithms. The results show while the model can determine the operation policy that keeps the associated risks in the acceptable range, it can satisfy the followers demands with respect to the available resources. The results also show that the agricultural sector of the study area can be hugely affected by potential future droughts.

     

Reservoir Inflow Monitoring for Improved Management of Treated Water Quality—A South Australian Experience

Large tributary inflows into water supply reservoirs caused by heavy catchment rain may be of concern due to problems associated with high levels of natural organic matter (NOM) present in the inflows. The movement of these inflows within a reservoir is dependent on its relative density to the receiving waters. For example, if the inflow is denser (colder) than the recipient water it will travel along the base of the reservoir as an underflow and can penetrate as far as the dam wall water off-take to a water treatment plant (WTP). Field studies were conducted to track the passage of underflows through two South Australian reservoirs, Little Para and Myponga. Samples were collected before and during storm event inflows and analyses undertaken to determine NOM concentration, alum demand, disinfection by-product formation potential, and quality of the water. We demonstrate that by monitoring the movement of inflows into reservoirs, combined with changes in reservoir off-take levels, that the risk of NOM entering a water treatment plant can be reduced which in turn will lower water treatment costs by reducing alum dosing levels and lessen the risk to human health by reducing disinfection by-product formation.     

龚嘴水库汛期合理调度方式探讨

本文从延缓水库淤积，提高发电效率目的出发，试图就龚嘴水库汛期库区泥沙冲淤平衡，与坝前控制水位的关系进行探讨，从而提出一个根据入库流量推来坝前最佳控制水位的函数关系。从计算结果对比分析看，效果较好，方法简单易行，具有一定的实用价值。