Managing Water Supply and Demand to Achieve Economic and Environmental Objectives: Application of Mathematical Programming and ANFIS Models

The integrated management of water supply and demand has been considered by many policymakers; due to its complexity the decision makers have faced many challenges so far. In this study, we proposed an efficient framework for managing water supply and demand in line with the economic and environmental objectives of the basin. To design this framework, a combination of ANFIS and multi-objective augmented ε-constraint programming models and TOPSIS were used. First, using hydrological data from 2001 to 2017, the rate of water release from the dam reservoir was estimated with the ANFIS model; afterwards, its allocation to agricultural areas was performed by combining multi-objective augmented ε-constraint models and TOPSIS. To prove the reliability of the proposed model, the southern Karkheh basin in Khuzestan province, Iran, was considered as a case study. The results have showed that this model is able to reduce irrigation water consumption and to improve its economic productivity in the basin.

     

Sustainability Issues in Water Management

In the 1992 Rio World Summit on Environment and Development/UNCED), water resources are indicated to remain at the core of sustainable development and, thus, they are to be managed and developed on a sustainable basis. Sustainability is a philosophical concept and thus difficult to measure. Yet, we need to describe it on rather precise terms to assess whether our water management practices are sustainable and to ensure sustainability in decision making for management. To this end, a number of sustainability criteria have been defined, based on quantifiable measures, without overlooking immeasurable aspects of sustainable development. This paper considers economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability as the basic criteria to be pursued in evaluating how effective our water management plans are in achieving sustainability. On the other hand, actual case studies are needed to test the usefulness of selected criteria by using computer-based interactive optimization and simulation models with associated databases embedded into a decision support system (DSS). The study herein intends to present such a case study based on economic, social and environmental criteria to assess sustainability in management of the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. Various management scenarios developed for the basin are evaluated within a DSS while ensuring multi-stakeholder involvement in defining the three sustainability criteria. The case study is a result of the analyses carried out in SMART (Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Sustainable Water Resources Management) projects funded respectively by the 5^th and 6^th Framework Programmes of the European Union.     

Water Resources Sustainability Indicator: Application of the Watershed Characteristics Approach

The quantification of the renewable flux (i.e. sustainable limit) of the hydrologic system is the prerequisite for transitioning from unsustainable to sustainable water resources management. The application of the Watershed Characteristics Approach to estimate the renewable flux of the hydrologic system was demonstrated using Minnesota’s (USA) Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA). The methodology quantified the relationships between landscape properties and water balance characteristics, resulting in the development of functioning hierarchical hydrogeological units with corresponding recharge rates. This renewable flux is a key quantitative characteristic for the assessment of a sustainability indicator. The key indicator of sustainable water use is the ratio of the renewable capacity of the hydrologic system to the water use by humans and the environment. By incorporating water use estimates for the TCMA relative to the calculated recharge rates, sustainability indicators for groundwater and total flux were calculated for the metropolitan area. As far back as the 1890s, declines in TCMA groundwater levels have been observed, which correspond to the unsustainable groundwater extraction estimates identified in the results of this study. The non-stationary characteristics of urban watersheds influenced by ongoing land use/land cover changes as illustrated in this paper, emphasizes the need for conservative hydrologic planning to achieve sustainable water management. This approach can also be applied to other metropolitan areas as a hydrologic tool for decision-makers to design sustainable water policy and prevent the over-extraction of the water flowing through the hydrologic system.     

基于SDGs的广东省水资源可持续性评价

围绕SDGs水资源相关目标,构建了本土化水资源综合可持续性评价指标体系,采用熵权法对广东省及其21个地级市水资源可持续发展水平进行了综合评价,并分析了广东省水资源可持续性的现状及历史演变。研究结果表明：2010—2019年广东省水资源综合可持续性缓慢提升,可持续性时空差异、目标差异均十分明显,珠三角核心区水资源综合可持续性较高,粤东及粤西地区较低;生态环境系统对可持续性支撑度最高,其次为水资源系统与效率系统,公平系统支撑度最低;供水、蓄水能力的改善及水资源利用效率的不断提升促进了水资源综合可持续性的提升,水生态退化、水环境恶化、水资源空间失衡等因素是水资源综合可持续发展的最主要限制因素;用水效率提升目标(SDGs6.4)可持续性最高,水质改善目标(SDGs6.3)、水生态恢复目标(SDGs6.6)及淡水生态系统保护目标(SDGs14.1)可持续性明显落后,水资源综合管理能力提升目标(SDGs6.5)及陆地生态环境修复目标(SDGs15.1)可持续性尚可,水资源综合可持续性呈现效率优势与“水质-污染-水生态”劣势并存的态势。     

西双版纳最严格水资源管理“三条红线”控制指标体系研究

基于国家实行最严格水资源管理的"三条红线"制度的要求,结合西双版纳地区的水资源特征和存在的供求矛盾,对"三条红线"控制指标体系进行了深入的探讨,针对全州最严格水资源管理控制制度建设和指标分配工作,提出了相应的对策和建议,为西双版纳地区经济的可持续发展提供了有力的管理支撑。     

An Integrated Framework to Evaluate Resilient-Sustainable Urban Drainage Management Plans Using a Combined-adaptive MCDM Technique

Due to the inevitability of urban flood in presence of the rainfalls exceeding design capacity of urban drainage system, resilience approach has been recently considered instead of the conventional urban drainage management. However, acceptance of resilience approach necessitates considering sustainability in the selection of urban drainage projects due to the various aspect of flood impacts. This paper presents a new integrated framework to show how urban drainage plans are resilient and sustainable. The framework consists of several indicators including technical, economic, social, environmental and planning aspects. On the other hand, the selection of suientropy of the probability distribution p _i . In fact, entropy reduces the effect of plan among available suggested plans is complicated in presence of multiplicity of the indicators. A new combined-adaptive multi criteria decision making technique including combination of Adaptive analytical hierarchical process, Entropy and TOPSIS is here introduced to facilitate the decision making process as well as dealing with uncertainties due to the subjective experts’ preferences. Moreover, presented framework are applied on a part of urban drainage system of Tehran, Capital City. Four urban drainage plans are designed and suggested to be evaluated along with existing system in terms of their sustainability and resilience. The results shows the presented framework provide comprehensive information regarding the behavior of the urban drainage plans against urban floods as well as their sustainability for urban managers. In addition, presented framework facilitates and accelerate the complicated process of decision making. Therefore, it can be employed as comprehensive decision support tool for resilient and sustainable urban drainage management.     

基于结构方程模型的水环境治理PPP项目可持续性影响因素分析

针对目前关于可持续性的研究大多从经济、社会、环境3方面出发的现象,且在PPP、水环境治理领域缺乏相关研究,综合考虑水环境治理PPP项目特点,应用结构方程模型(SEM),从经济、社会、资源与环境、工程、项目管理5个方面,对水环境治理PPP项目可持续性影响因素进行研究。构建了一套较为完整的可持续性评价指标体系,定义了一种新的指标权重计算方法,确定了5个维度中对项目可持续性影响最大的指标,即分别为可持续的现金流、公众满意度、河流断面水质达标率、项目设施更新能力、项目组织结构。研究成果为政府和社会资本采取措施改善或维持项目可持续性水平提供了依据。     

建设项目的可持续管理

讨论了国内外建设项目可持续管理的现状,提出了建设项目可持续管理的理论框架。描述了三峡工程在可持续管理方面所作的尝试。在建设工程项目建设中不但按照传统的项目管理体系管理工程,而且应遵循以人为本的原则和充分考虑成本效益、环境可持续性和社会公平性等因素。     

Cooperation in a Hydro-geologic Commons: New Institutions and Pricing to Achieve Sustainability and Security

Current water use in the areas of Israel, Gaza, West Bank and Jordan is not consistent with a sustainable water supply: growing demands relative to supplies threaten underground aquifers, and water quality problems diminish the health and welfare of current residents and impair future water supplies. A hydro-geologic system can be viewed as a commons that provides a stream of benefits to an entire geographic area over time. Sustainability requires the design of new institutions with appropriate boundaries and rules. This paper proposes a regional cooperative management system, combining aspects of a regional utility and a joint commission, which would use price incentives for management purposes. The non-profit regional water utility would establish limits on water use, determine water prices and make investments from system revenues. For efficiency, surface water, groundwater and recovered water of the same quality should receive the same price. Withdrawal limits based on sustainability would be sufficient to establish prices through the interaction of supply and demand. Equity issues could be addressed by a guaranteed water provision with a relatively low price for the guaranteed level. Security in terms of adequate groundwater storage could be achieved through appropriate investment. A representative body of water users would help the utility determine appropriate limits and guarantees. The conceptual basis for this institutional design is temporal efficiency. While a traditional market could improve spatial allocation, it would not necessarily address sustainability or provide for investment in recycling and other technologies to improve water supply. Furthermore, the proposed system bypasses the issue of property rights required for full market exchange.     

An Indicator Based Assessment for Water Resources Management in Gediz River Basin,Turkey

In this study, a water resources management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions with respect to environmental, social and economic dimensions is developed for the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. The basic input of the proposed model is the quantity of surface water that is greatly allocated to irrigation purposes; therefore, supply and demand interrelations in agricultural water use constitute the main focus of the study. The model has been applied under three different hydro-meteorological scenarios that reflect baseline as well as better and worse conditions of water supply and demand, not only to reach an assessment of water budget, but also to evaluate the impacts of proposed management alternatives under different conditions. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software is used as a simulation and evaluation tool to assess the performance of possible management alternatives, which is measured by nine proposed indicators. The results of the study have indicated that the Gediz River Basin is quite sensitive to drought conditions, and the agricultural sector is significantly affected by irrigation deficits that increase sharply in drought periods. Even if the optimistic scenario is assumed to occur, it is not possible to observe a significant improvement in the water budget; however, the negative impacts of climate change can possibly exacerbate the water crisis. The indicators also verified that, efficient water management is crucial to ensure the sustainable use of water resources with respect to environmental, social and economic dimensions.     

Comparison of Recurrent Neural Network,Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Stochastic Models in Eğirdir Lake Level Forecasting

Accurate prediction of lake-level changes is a very important problem for a wise and sustainable use. In recent years significant lake level fluctuations have occurred and can be related to the climatic change. Such a problem is crucial to the works and decisions related to the water resources and management. This study is aimed to predict future lake levels during hydrometeorological changes and anthropogenic activities taking place in the Lake Eğirdir which is the most important water storage of Lake Region, one of the biggest fresh water lakes of Turkey. For this aim, recurrent neural network (RNN), adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as prediction models which have various input structures were constructed and the best fit model was investigated. Also, the classical stochastic models, auto-regressive (AR) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models are generated and compared with RNN and ANFIS models. The performances of the models are examined with the form of numerical and graphical comparisons in addition to some statistic efficiency criteria. The results indicated that the RNN and ANFIS can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for lake-level changes than the AR and the ARMA models. Also it was shown that these stochastic models can be used in the lake management policies with the acceptable risk.     

A neuro-fuzzy model for inflow forecasting of the Nile river at Aswan high dam

River flow forecasting is an essential procedure that is necessary for proper reservoir operation. Accurate forecasting results in good control of water availability, refined operation of reservoirs and improved hydropower generation. Therefore, it becomes crucial to develop forecasting models for river inflow. Several approaches have been proposed over the past few years based on stochastic modeling or artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In this article, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is proposed to forecast the inflow for the Nile River at Aswan High Dam (AHD) on monthly basis. A major advantage of the fuzzy system is its ability to deal with imprecision and vagueness in inflow database. The ANFIS model divides the input space into fuzzy sub-spaces and maps the output using a set of linear functions. A historical database of monthly inflows at AHD recorded over the past 130 years is used to train the ANFIS model and test its performance. The performance of the ANFIS model is compared to a recently developed artificial neural networks (ANN) model. The results show that the ANFIS model was capable of providing higher inflow forecasting accuracy specially at extreme inflow events compared with that of the ANN model. It is concluded that the ANFIS model can be quite beneficial in water management of Lake Nasser reservoir at AHD.     

基于水资源系统可持续性的南水北调进京规模分析

基于水资源系统可持续性评价的基本理论与方法,分析了不同供水条件和需水方案下北京市2025年水资源系统可持续性和南水北调对北京市未来水资源系统可持续性的影响,并从可持续性角度确定了不同发展情景下南水北调调水规模的阈值。结果表明:南水北调可总体改善北京市未来水资源系统可持续性,但在较高需水方案下或丹江口水库遭遇特枯水年时,北京市水资源系统可持续性状况不容乐观;未来应在科学制定需水方案的基础上合理增大南水北调调水规模,加强应急保障措施和资源战略储备,提升北京市水资源系统可持续性,实现首都水资源可持续发展。     

福建省中长期水资源供需平衡问题与对策

福建省中长期仍然处于经济快速发展时期,工业化、城市化将迅速推进,加剧局部地区、特定时段的水资源供需平衡矛盾。水资源供需平衡直接关系到水资源承载力和可持续利用能力,进而关系到经济社会可持续发展。在明确资源水、灾害水、生态水和虚拟水内涵及其相互关系的基础上,分析福建省水资源问题与供需态势,从资源水利用的高效节约化、灾害水资源化、生态水配置优化、虚拟水市场化四个角度提出了福建水资源供需平衡对策。     

An Extension of the Sustainability Index Definition in Water Resources Planning and Management

The sustainability index (SI) is a relatively new concept for measuring the performance of water resource systems over long time periods. Its definition is aimed at providing an indication of the integral behaviour of the system with regards to possible undesired consequences if misbalance of available and required waters occurs. SI is initially defined as a product and later reformulated as a geometric mean of performance indicators: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. As an extension of a recently published methodology to compute and use SI, in this paper we propose introducing two more indicators of system performance: (1) reliability of annual firm (safe) water as a system yield and (2) deviation of reservoir levels from corresponding rule curves. The last indicator is of particular importance if there are multi-purpose reservoirs in the system because reservoirs are the most important and sensitive regulators of the water regime within the system. We also propose a framework for assessing system performance in a systematic manner to compute SI at various locations within the system if different operating strategies are applied and, finally, how to evaluate strategies according to the resulting SI by using multi-criteria methods. A case study example from Serbia is used to illustrate the results of measuring sustainability under alternative operating scenarios for a system with three reservoirs and two diversion structures.     

Optimal planning of water supply system for long-term sustainability

Developing a long-term system plan for sustainable water supply is a challenging task due to system complexity and future uncertainties in water demands and source availability. Here a coupled optimization model is proposed for water supply system design and long-term operations by deciding system component sizes and water flow allocations simultaneously. The objective is to minimize overall system costs (i.e., sum of capital and operation costs) while meeting water demands and operational constraints. The economic costs include initial component construction costs and operation expenditure over pre-defined operation years. The proposed model integrates a genetic algorithm with a linear programming model to optimize water infrastructure investments and annual water transfers satisfying flow constraints. The coupled model was applied to a simplified water supply network composed of multiple water sources and users. For the application network, various qualities of water from different sources could be supplied to different users. Plausible future scenarios with time varying water demands were simulated representing potential future conditions. Application results show that the proposed coupled model is beneficial in decision making process to design structural components in near future and prepare long-term policies for water shortage and water right issues in upcoming years. The model can be tailored to a specific system and various regulations and conditions can be incorporated within the model without adding complexity to the optimization framework.     

Development of a Combined Index to Evaluate Sustainability of Water Resources Systems

It is necessary to assess water resources sustainability for development and management of a large-scale water resources system with various components such as reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, and consumers and stakeholders in various sectors including drinking, industry, fish farming, agriculture, and environment. For this purpose, in the present study, a spatially-distributed model was developed based on the system dynamics approach. Then, a set of individual indexes were utilized to evaluate the behavior of a water resources system by considering quantitative/qualitative environmental, economic, and water productivity aspects. Each of the individual indexes was computed for all system nodes. A combined index was further developed and applied to evaluate the system sustainability. To evaluate the efficiency of the combined index and ensure its proper performance, the new method was compared with the well-known multi-criteria decision making method. The results indicated that the combined index was 15.315 for sustainable development with implementation of an integrated water management policy, while the index for the current condition was 15.361. For other management policies that were not based on the integrated management concept, the values of the combined index were higher than those for the current condition.

     

An Inexact Two-Stage Water Resources Allocation Model for Sustainable Development and Management Under Uncertainty

In this study, an inexact two-stage water resources allocation (ITWR) model is put forward for supporting sustainable development and management of water resources in Sanjiang Plain, China, which is in such a situation, with multi-water source, multi-water supply subarea, multi-water user and multi-planning goal. The costs of net system, water supply and recourse are analyzed. The developed ITWR model, which shows a strong ability in tacking with various uncertain factors in probability distributions and discrete interval numbers, mixes the techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) within a general optimization framework. And it also has formed an effective link in such a conflict between the policy scenarios and the associated various levels of economic penalties, when the pre-allocation targets of water resources are violated. Based on this model, a series of scenarios under different levels of pre-allocation water is done and different degrees of water surplus and shortage are obtained correspondingly. The results indicate that the reasonable distribution plans with maximum system benefit and minimum system-failure risk have been generated. And these results are valuable for saving water resources to realize its sustainable development and mitigating the penalty to gain economic benefits maximum, and thus some desired results are provided for decision makers in tackling with a complex and uncertain water-resource system.     

加拿大的可持续水管理改革及其对我国构建“资源水利”体系的借鉴意义

198 7年后 ,加拿大的水利工作进入了可持续水管理的新阶段 .其特点是 :以构筑支撑社会可持续发展的水系统为水管理目标 ,以确保当代人和下代人用水权的平等为水管理道德理念 ,以水不仅是可供人类消费的物质资源 ,而且是生态系统的重要组成部分为水管理准则 ;通过将原来分布于政府诸多机构的水管理权集中于一个或少数几个机构的方式重组水管理机构 ;水管理机构普遍把生态系统方法作为可持续水管理的一种基本方法 ,将水与生态环境、社会经济等联在一起 ,将水管理与土地、森林等环境资源的管理联在一起 .中国今天的水管理工作不仅要为当代人服务 ,也要为后代人服务 .为实现我国水资源的可持续利用 ,在构建“资源水利”体系过程中 ,应通过重组水管理机构适当集中水政管理权 ;要重视将水资源的管理与其它资源的管理联系在一起 ,在规划和配置水资源时 ,多考虑生态环境和社会经济因素