Considerations on the influence of extreme events on the phosphorus transport from river catchments to the sea.

In this paper, results from rivers of different sizes in Romania, Hungary and Austria are presented. The paper shows the dynamics of extreme events and their contribution to the total P and suspended solids transported in these rivers. Special attention is paid to the influence of the size of the catchment and the event probability on the relative contribution of a single event to the total loads transported in the river. Further, the development of phosphorus loads along the Danube River at a flood event is shown. From the results it can be concluded that there is no immediate influence of high flow and flood events in upstream parts of the Basin on the transport of phosphorus from the catchment to the receiving Sea. Particle-bound phosphorus is mobilised from the catchment (through erosion) and the river bottom to a high extent at high flow events and transported at peak discharges to downstream, where retention by sedimentation of particles takes place. On the one hand this retention is a transport to flooded areas. In this case it can be considered as more or less long term retention. On the other hand sedimentation takes place in the riverbed, in case the tractive effort of the river is reduced. In this second case the P-pool in the sediments of the sedimentation area will be increased. If anaerobic conditions in the sediment appear, part of the phosphorus will be transformed to soluble ortho-phosphate and will continuously contribute to the phosphorus transport to the receiving sea. Part of the P-retained in the river sediment will be mobilised by resuspension at the next biggest high flow event. Altogether, these alternating processes of suspension, transport, export to flooded areas or sedimentation in the river bed with partly solution and partly resuspension at the next event decrease the share of the phosphorus transport during high flow events on the total loads transported in the more downstream parts of a catchments as compared to the more upstream parts. In the year of occurrence of an extreme flood event the P-transport of this year is dominated by the flood event. As an average over many years the contribution of high flow events to the total P-transport still may be between 7 and 20% in smaller catchments (around 1,000 km2). In a big catchment (e.g. river Danube) much smaller contributions of flood events on the total P-transport can be expected as an average over many years.     

Water Quality Assessment Using Multivariate Statistical Methods—A Case Study: Melen River System (Turkey)

This study is focused on water quality of Melen River (Turkey) and evaluation of 26 physical and chemical pollution data obtained five monitoring stations during the period 1995–2006. It presents the application of multivariate statistical methods to the data set, namely, principal component and factor analysis (PCA/FA), multiple regression analysis (MRA) and discriminant analysis (DA). The PCA/FA was employed to evaluate the high–low flow periods correlations of water quality parameters, while the principal factor analysis technique was used to extract the parameters that are most important in assessing high–low flow periods variations of river water quality. Latent factors were identified as responsible for data structure explaining 72–97% of the total variance of the each data sets. PCA/FA was supported with multiple regression analysis to determine the most important parameter in each factor. It examines the relation between a single dependent variable and a set of independent variables to best represent the relation in the each factor. Obtained important parameters provided us to determine the major pollution sources in Melen River Basin. So factors are conditionally named soil structure and erosion, domestic, municipal and industrial effluents, agricultural activities (fertilizer, irrigation water and livestock wastes), atmospheric deposition and seasonal effects factors. DA applied the data set to obtain the parameters responsible for temporal and spatial variations. Assessment of high–low flow period changes in surface water quality is an important aspect for evaluating temporal and spatial variations of river pollution. The aim of this study is illustration the usefulness of multivariate statistical analysis for evaluation of complex data sets, in Melen River water quality assessment identification of factors and pollution sources, for effective water quality management determination the spatial and temporal variations in water quality.     

淮河流域主汛期极端降水时空特征变异分析

以淮河水系16个片区1953年-2007年逐月降水资料为基础,选取超门限峰值序列(POT),引进广义帕雷托分布(GPD),借助L-矩估计方法,分析淮河水系主汛期年极端降雨事件的空间变化。并以淮河干流左右岸的代表性支流为研究对象,通过统计极端降水的频次和强度,结合帕雷托参数的空间变化,分析了淮河汛期极端降水的演变规律。研究发现:①不同门限值下的逐月降水量所拟合的降水极值概率分布符合广义帕雷托分布;②淮河的极端降水频次和强度右岸普遍大于左岸,与帕雷托分布形状参数和尺度参数空间分布一致性较好;③不同量级的极端降水的时空变化规律有较大差别。研究结论对淮河流域的洪涝灾害的预警和防治有一定的参考价值。     

鄱阳湖流域1961—2010年极端降水变化分析

基于鄱阳湖流域14个国家气象站1961—2010年的日降水量数据,采用百分位法定义阈值,识别极端降水事件;采用线性回归方法进行趋势检验,进而对鄱阳湖流域1961—2010年极端降水的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,相比年降水,流域极端降水的变化趋势更为明显;1961—2010年鄱阳湖流域极端强降水强度呈显著增大趋势而极端强降水天数显著减小;极端降水强度增大的区域主要分布在赣江流域和抚河流域。1961—2010年鄱阳湖流域大部分站点极端降水不存在突变,降水在时间上有分布更加集中的趋势。鄱阳湖流域极端降水的上述变化,对流域水资源管理提出了更加严峻的挑战。     

长江流域极端降雨事件时空分布特征

近年来,许多学者对中国的极端降水进行了研究,但对长江流域极端降水的研究多集中在日时间尺度强降水事件,从不同子流域极端降水事件入手的研究较少。利用1961～2017年长江流域各子流域面雨量资料,根据面雨量的分布曲线确定长江流域各子流域极端降雨事件判断的阈值,得到各子流域极端降雨年份,分析极端降雨事件的时间变化特征,以及不同子流域间极端事件的相关关系。研究表明:①20世纪60年代长江上游极端多雨事件频发,70年代以全流域极端少雨为主,80年代极端多雨事件中心转移至长江中下游,90年代长江上游变为极端少雨事件中心,2000年以来,长江流域处在由少雨向多雨转变的年代际背景中。②当子流域发生极端少雨事件时,流域其他流域大部也是以降雨偏少为主,空间的一致性较好。但是子流域发生极端多雨事件时,存在大部分地区少雨的情况,会出现旱涝并存的情况。     

Relationship between river surface level and fish assemblage in the Ocklawaha River,Florida

Understanding the relationship between river flows and levels and fish communities is important to setting minimum flow and level regulations designed to prevent ecological harm. We reviewed a long‐term Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission data set from the Ocklawaha River, Florida, to evaluate trends in fish abundance and fish communities relative to historical river levels. Fish data were collected using electrofishing at the Ocklawaha River, Florida, during 1983–1994. Electrofishing data were used to estimate catch per minute and biomass per minute of selected species, fish diversity, richness and evenness. Catch rate variables were compared among years and significant differences in abundance and community indices were related to historical water levels using multiple regression models. Results indicated that differences in abundance and community indices among years were more common at the site with increased river level variability. Regression models indicated that fish abundance and species richness were positively related to river levels, and species diversity was negatively related to variability in river level during the two years prior to sampling. Spotted sunfish Lepomis punctatus exhibited the most variability in species‐specific catch per effort and spotted sunfish abundance was positively related to river levels. Low river levels negatively influenced fish abundance and fish communities, and minimum flows in Florida should manage for the periodicity of low flow events to prevent sequential years of adverse effects on fish populations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同水动力条件下的河流硅藻群落分布机理研究

水体生物种群指标与河流水动力参数之间的关系是水生态的重要研究课题之一。在西江水系柳江河流共设置31个硅藻采样点,来探究表层沉积硅藻在不同水动力条件下的群落结构,着重研究了硅藻与水深、流速和流量等水文变量间的关系。在研究区域共发现硅藻2纲38属264种,通过层状图和排序分析,流速是影响硅藻群落分布最主要的水动力条件,其次才是雷诺数。雷诺数的大小和浮游种类丰度关系紧密,但雷诺数对硅藻种类的影响还有不确定因数。直链藻和小环藻等浮游种类在大江中比小溪中较易出现,同时人工修建的大坝通过改变水动力条件,对藻类的分布产生影响,尤其在水库下游等较极端的湍流条件下,桥弯藻和脆杆藻的丰度明显地增长。     

基于IHA-RAV法的长江源区生态水文情势变化

为评估长江源区河流水文情势变化及其生态效应,选用长江源区直门达水文站1957—2021年逐日流量资料,使用贝叶斯变点检验方法分析直门达水文站年平均流量突变发生时间,采用水文改变指标变化范围法(IHA-RVA)综合评价直门达水文站在突变点前后改变程度,使用趋势坡度、Kendall趋势检验以及去趋势波动分析法评价月均流量、年极值流量时间序列变化情况。结果表明：(1)长江源区直门达水文站年平均流量在2004年发生变异。(2)2004年前后直门达水文站水文综合改变度为37.2%,属于中度改变。(3)月均流量综合为中度改变,各月流量均有不同程度的增加,增大了河道内水生生物栖息所需水量。(4)流量极值综合改变度为低度改变,表明极端流量事件处于一个稳定的范围,在一定程度上维持了长江源区生态系统的稳定性;最小流量的增加更好地保障了流域生态流量。(5)极端值出现时间为低改变度,对水生生物栖息地以及鱼类洄游影响较小。(6)高、低流量脉冲频次均为低度改变,反映出长江源区干旱和洪涝发生次数减少,使得长江源区河道、河滩的受水情况趋于稳定;高、低脉冲历时变化又给源区河道及沿岸生态环境带来不确定的影响。(7)流量上...     

Causes and Consequences of Unutilised Irrigation Orders in the Central River Murray Area

Regulation of river systems has led to the development of irrigated agriculture and other uses of this engineered additional water supply. One of the main environmental drawbacks from regulation of river systems has been a shift in the seasonality of flow of these rivers. One such river is the River Murray, Australia. A common concern for the River Murray is a decreased incidence of winter and spring flooding of floodplains. A lesser known problem is the increased incidence of unseasonal flooding of the Barmah-Millewa Forest (B-MF) around the Barmah Choke on the River Murray. These flood events have often been said to be created by ‘rain rejection events’. Rain rejection events are the rejection of advanced irrigation orders by irrigators due to rainfall on their properties meaning this previously requested water goes unutilised. This paper investigates the causes of unutilised irrigation orders (UIO) and takes a holistic view to investigate the variables affecting unseasonal flooding of the B-MF. It is concluded from this research that unseasonal flooding of the B-MF can be linked to UIO but there are other more significant factors; inflow from Ovens River particularly during December, River Murray flow at Albury and the available airspace in the River Murray at Tocumwal. UIO were found to be linked to the previous day’s UIO, rainfall and the advanced order volume placed four days prior.     

Causal Reasoning for the Analysis of Rivers Runoff Temporal Behavior

The accurate knowledge about the influence of time in the behavior of rivers systems is crucial for a proper river basin water management. Traditional techniques such as correlograms or ARMA models have been widespread used over the last decades providing the analyzer with an average behaviour of temporal influence of hydrological series. In the last decade, the development of techniques, under the discipline of artificial intelligent, have increased the range of available analytical tools. On the other hand, hydrological processes have a very strong random nature and they are driven by its high uncertainty and variability. Consequently, it is necessary to build tools, able to incorporate these peculiarities in their analytical functioning. Causal Reasoning through Bayesian Networks (BNs) allows processing and analysing hydrological series, incorporating and assessing all their variability. Causality driven by Bayes´ theorem is used here to dynamically identify, characterize and quantify the influence of time (dependence) for each time step in annual run-off series in five Spanish River basins. Therefore, BNs arise as a powerful tool for getting a deeper understanding on the knowledge of temporal behaviour of hydrological series because this analysis is dynamic and implemented specifically for temporal iterations (decision variables). Implications and applications of this research are largely aimed to improve and optimize the design and dimensioning of hydraulic infrastructures, as well as reducing the risk of negative impacts produced by extreme events such as several droughts or floods, among others.     

Climate and rivers

Over the last few decades as hydrologists have slowly raised their line of sight above the watershed boundary, it has become increasingly recognised that what happens in the atmosphere, as a major source of moisture for the terrestrial branch of the hydrological cycle, can strongly influence river dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Notwithstanding this, there is still a tendency for some in the river research community to restrict their gaze to the river channel or floodplain. However, Geoff Petts, the person to which this special issue is dedicated, understood well and widely encouraged a holistic view of river catchment processes. This included an acknowledgment of the role of climate, in its broadest sense, in shaping what happens within and without the river channel. The purpose of this paper therefore is to offer a broad overview of the role of some aspects of climate science in advancing knowledge in river research. Topics to be addressed include the role of climate in influencing river flow regimes, a consideration of the large‐scale climate mechanisms that drive hydrological variability within river basins at interannual to decadal timescales and atmospheric rivers and their link to surface hydrology. In reviewing these topics, a number of key knowledge gaps have emerged including attributing the causes of river flow regime changes to any one particular cause, the nonstationary and asymmetric forcing of river regimes by modes of climate variability and establishing links between atmospheric rivers, and terrestrial river channel processes, fluvial habitats, and ecological change.     

Projected climate change impacts on hydrologic flow regimes in the Great Plains of Kansas

Alteration of flow regimes due to change in climate and its potential impact on habitat and species has become a major cause of concern for riverine ecosystems. Areas that are more vulnerable to such changes are semiarid river systems or regions experiencing intermittent flow and cyclic droughts. Although ecological changes are expected to occur with flow regime alterations, the biological changes cannot be predicted until the flow in such regions is analysed. This study addresses this concern by providing an analysis of flow for a semiarid river basin in the Central Great Plains from a 50 and 100‐year projection climate data. The projected data for these two periods are then compared with 30‐year historical data to determine changes in flow. Five major components of flow regime, magnitude, duration, and timing of annual extreme water conditions, frequency and duration of high and low pulses, and rate and frequency of water condition changes, were examined with respect to climate change for their impact on the ecology of the basin. This analysis strongly suggests that inter‐ and intra‐annual changes in flow regimes will result in the intensified drying of the basin represented by the increased number of low flow periods followed by higher occurrences of high flow events of shorter duration with expected changes in climate.     

Predicting Monsoon Floods in Rivers Embedding Wavelet Transform,Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network

Monsoon floods are recurring hazards in most countries of South-East Asia. In this paper, a wavelet transform-genetic algorithm-neural network model (WAGANN) is proposed for forecasting 1-day-ahead monsoon river flows which are difficult to model as they are characterized by irregularly spaced spiky large events and sustained flows of varying duration. Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is employed for preprocessing the time series and genetic algorithm (GA) for optimizing the initial parameters of an artificial neural network (ANN) prior to the network training. Depending on different inputs, four WAGANN models are developed and evaluated for predicting flows in two Indian Rivers, the Kosi and the Gandak. These rivers are infamous for carrying large flows during monsoon (June to Sept), making the entire North Bihar of India unsafe for habitation or cultivation. When compared, WAGANN models are found to be better than autoregression models (ARs) and GA-optimized ANN models (GANNs) which use original flow time series (OFTS) for inputs, in simulating river flows during monsoon. In addition, WAGANN models predicted relatively reasonable estimates for the extreme flows, showing little bias for underprediction or overprediction.     

An evaluation of inter-basin water transfers as a mechanism for augmenting salmonid and grayling habitat in the River Wear,North-East England

Transfers of water from the Kielder system have been used for 12 years to avoid low flow problems in the River Wear. Transfers are scheduled to avoid breaches of the river's statutory Minimum Maintained Flow (MMF). Despite this routine use, the role of transfers in augmenting instream habitat has never been evaluated. A physical habitat simulation (PHABSIM) study was undertaken in 1996 to investigate the influence of transfers and the MMF policy on brown trout Salmo trutta, Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and grayling Thymallus thymallus instream habitat at three sites on the Wear. Transfers support total habitat levels up to 10% greater than unregulated conditions. They impact usable instream habitat (weighted usable area) to a much greater extent. For salmon parr, the species/lifestage whose habitat is most limited by low flows, transfers have maintained relatively stable usable habitat levels during periods when otherwise they would have fallen by as much as 70%. The MMF policy results in minimum flow values which are higher than those which would have been set using the Montana Method and the availability of salmon parr usable habitat does not fall below 10% of its mean annual value. Judged in these terms, the MMF-based transfer regime has played a positive role in avoiding extreme habitat loss in the Wear. Simulations of four alternative Kielder transfer release policies indicate that near-optimum habitat levels could be maintained throughout summer low flow periods. However, this would result in unnatural temporal patterns of flow and habitat availability. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广东省极端降水时空分布特征研究

广东省是极端降水多发区,为分析广东省极端降水的时空分布的主要特征,选取2013年1月1日至2017年3月16日之间共1 553 d的3 370个站点逐时降水量资料,并运用统计学、热点和泛克里金方法进行分析计算。研究结果显示,极端降水量主要集中在4—10月,约占全年降水的78%,广东省的极端降水量与极端降水场次的空间分布基本一致。从不同区域看,广东省极端降水空间分布不均匀,粤东汕尾—汕头—揭阳、粤西阳江—茂名、粤北韶关南部、珠三角江门—惠州北部等地区发生极端降水的总场次达57 756场,占比达到71%,韶关—清远北部、梅州西部—河源北部、云浮东北部和肇庆西部等地区发生极端降水的总场次达23 590场,占比只达到29%,沿海地区发生极端降水的总场次为55 315场,占比达到68%。极端降水由沿海到内陆呈现递减趋势,沿海发生极端降水远远多于内陆地区。极端降水在空间上大致呈现东、西、北部少,中、南部多的格局,极端降水由南向北呈带状递减。研究成果可为制定适应气候变化的水资源管理及防洪策略提供参考。     

Macroinvertebrate community response to inter‐annual and regional river flow regime dynamics

Spatio‐temporal variability in river flow is a fundamental control on instream habitat structure and riverine ecosystem biodiversity and integrity. However, long‐term riverine ecological time‐series to test hypotheses about hydrology–ecology interactions in a broader temporal context are rare, and studies spanning multiple rivers are often limited in their temporal coverage to less than five years. To address this research gap, a unique spatio‐temporal hydroecological analysis was conducted of long‐term instream ecological responses (1990–2000) to river flow regime variability at 83 sites across England and Wales. The results demonstrate clear hydroecological associations at the national scale (all data). In addition, significant differences in ecological response are recorded between three ‘regions’ identified (RM1–3*) associated with characteristics of the flow regime. The effect of two major supra‐seasonal droughts (1990–1992 and 1996–1997) on inter‐annual (IA) variability of the LIFE scores is evident with both events showing a gradual decline before and recovery of LIFE scores after the low flow period. The instream community response to high magnitude flow regimes (1994 and 1995) is also apparent, although these associations are less striking. The results demonstrate classification of rivers into flow regime regions offers a way to help unravel complex hydroecological associations. The approach adopted herein could easily be adapted for other geographical locations, where datasets are available. Such work is imperative to understand flow regime–ecology interactions in a longer term, wider spatial context and so assess future hydroecological responses to climate change and anthropogenic modification of riverine ecosystems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Temporal Changes in Extreme Rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-h annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves for the last decade (2000–2009) usually do not stand above the others, with the only exception of the ones related to the outer western part of Sicily. On the other hand, rainfall quantile estimates for the same period are the highest values almost all over the region. An explanation can be found in the increase of subregional average medians, largely caused by recent severe local storms.     

Sensitivity of Intermittent Streams to Climate Variations in the USA

There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero‐flow behaviour and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the USA. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero‐flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long‐term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero‐flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low‐flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade‐to‐decade trends in the low‐flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long‐term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Relationships between wind-driven and hydraulic flow in Lake St. Clair and the St. Clair River Delta

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic forecasting model of the Great Lakes Huron-Erie Corridor is used to investigate mixing and the relationship between hydraulic and wind-induced currents in a shallow lake system in which lake inflows come through several channels of a river delta. The hydrodynamics in Lake St. Clair and the channels of the St. Clair River Delta are evaluated for (1) a one-year simulation from 1985 including water age calculation, (2) 8 different wind direction scenarios, and (3) a storm event. Observations and model simulations show distinct regions in the lake in which currents are forced by either hydraulic flow from the river system or from wind stress over the lake. However, during severe storm events, these regions are found to shift or even disappear due to changes in the delta channel inputs into the lake. These changes underscore the need for realistic, unsteady river flow boundary conditions at interfaces between a shallow lake and river delta. Steady inflow conditions will not allow for potential shifting of these current zones, and will also fail to resolve flow retardation or reversals during storm events.