Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Inference System Models for Forecasting Suspended Sediment and Turbidity in Basins at Different Scales

Water Resources Management - The monitoring of hydro-sedimentological processes is important for environmental control but depends on resources that are not always available. The estimation of...     

A Hybrid Double Feedforward Neural Network for Suspended Sediment Load Estimation

Estimation of suspended sediment loads (SSL) in rivers is an important issue in water resources management and planning. This study proposes a hybrid double feedforward neural network (HDFNN) model for daily SSL estimation, by combining fuzzy pattern-recognition and continuity equation into a structure of double neural networks. A comparison is performed between HDFNN, multi-layer feedforward neural network (MFNN), double parallel feedforward neural network (DPFNN) and hybrid feedforward neural network (HFNN) models. Based on a case study on the Muddy Creek in Montana of USA, it is found that the HDFNN model is strongly superior to the other three benchmarking models in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSEC). HDFNN model demonstrates the best generalization and estimation ability due to its configuration and capability of physically dealing with different inputs. The peak value of SSL is closely estimated by the HDFNN model as well. The performances of HDFNN model in low and medium loads are satisfactory when investigated by partitioning analysis. Thus, the HDFNN is appropriate for modeling the sediment transport process with nonlinear, fuzzy and time-varying characteristics. It explores a practical alternative for use and can be recommended as an efficient estimation model for SSL.     

Performance Evaluation of Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System for Sediment Transport in Sewers

The application of models capable of estimating sediment transport in sewers has been a frequent practice in the past years. Considering the fact that predicting sediment transport within the sewer is a complex phenomenon, the existing equations used for predicting densimetric Froude number do not present similar results. Using Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) this article studies sediment transport in sewers. For this purpose, five different dimensionless groups including motion, transport, sediment, transport mode and flow resistance are introduced first and then the effects of various parameters in different groups on the estimation of the densimetric Froude number in the motion group are presented as six different models. To present the models, two states of grid partitioning and sub-clustering were used in Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) generation. Moreover, the training algorithms applied in this article include back propagation and hybrid. The results of the proposed models are compared with the experimental data and the existing equations. The results show that ANFIS models have greater accuracy than the existing sediment transport equations.     

Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models for Inflow Prediction of Dam Reservoir (Case Study: Zayandehroud Dam Reservoir)

Inflow prediction of reservoirs is of considerable importance due to its application in water resources management related to downstream water release planning and flood protection. Therefore, in this research, different new input patterns for predicting inflow to Zayandehroud dam reservoir is proposed employing artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) models. Nine different models with different patterns of input data such as inflow to the dam reservoir considering time duration lags, time index, and monthly rainfall of Ghaleh-Shahrokh station have been proposed to predict the inflow to the dam reservoir. Comparison of the results indicates that the ninth proposed model has the least error for inflow prediction in which the results of SVM model outperform those of ANN model. That is, the least error has been obtained using the ninth SVM (ANN) model with correlation coefficient (R) values of 0.8962 (0.89296), 0.9303 (0.92983) and 0.9622 (0.95333) and root mean squared error (RMSE) values of 47.9346 (48.5441), 42.69093 (43.748) and 23.56193 (28.5125) for training, validation and test data, respectively.

     

Combining Radial Basis Function Neural Network Models and Inclusive Multiple Models for Predicting Suspended Sediment Loads

Water Resources Management - An important issue in water engineering is predicting suspended sediment load (SSL). For the Telar River and its tributaries, this study employs an inclusive multiple...     

基于自适应模糊神经网络的光储系统优化控制

针对大规模光储电站中出力波动大、跟踪电网调度指令精度差.提出一种新型自适应模糊神经网络的光储系统优化控制策略,将低通滤波和自适应模糊神经网络相结合,在跟踪调度指令的频率波动范围内优化低通滤波参数,对某光储电站大量实测输入—输出数据经过反复试验、筛选和整理得出有代表性的数据.将光储出力与电网调度偏差和混合储能荷电状态的平...     

Daily Forecasting of Dam Water Levels: Comparing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model With Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

Reservoir planning and management are critical to the development of the hydrological field and necessary to Integrated Water Resources Management. The growth of forecasting models has resulted in an excellent model known as the Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses linearly separable patterns based on an optimal hyperplane, which are extended to non-linearly separable patterns by transforming the raw data to map into a new space. SVM can find a global optimal solution equipped with Kernel functions. These Kernel functions have high flexibility in the forecasting computation, enabling data to be mapped at a higher and infinite-dimensional space in an implicit manner. This paper presents a new solution to the expert system, using SVM to forecast the daily dam water level of the Klang gate. Four categories are identified to determine the best model: the input scenario, the type of SVM regression, the number of V-fold cross-validation and the time lag. The best input scenario employs both the rainfall R(t-i) and the dam water level L(t-i). Type 2 SVM regression is selected as the best regression type, and 5-fold cross-validation produces the most accurate results. The results are compared with those obtained using ANFIS: all the RMSE, MAE and MAPE values prove that SVM is a superior model to ANFIS. Finally, all the results are combined to determine the best time lag, resulting in R(t-2) L(t-2) for the best model with only 1.64 % error.     

Estimate of Suspended Sediment Concentration from Monitored Data of Turbidity and Water Level Using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are promising alternatives for the estimation of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), but they are dependent on the availability data. This study investigates the use of an ANN model for forecasting SSC using turbidity and water level. It is used an original method, idealized to investigate the minimum complexity of the ANN that does not present, in relation to more complex networks, loss of efficiency when applied to other samples, and to perform its training avoiding the overfitting even when data availability is insufficient to use the cross-validation technique. The use of a validation procedure by resampling, the control of overfitting through a previously researched condition of training completion, as well as training repetitions to provide robustness are important aspects of the method. Turbidity and water level data, related to 59 SSC values, collected between June 2013 and October 2015, were used. The development of the proposed ANN was preceded by the training of an ANN, without the use of the new resources, which clearly showed the overfitting occurrence when resources were not used to avoid it, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) equals to 0.995 in the training and NS = 0.788 in the verification. The proposed method generated efficient models (NS = 0.953 for verification), with well distributed errors and with great capacity of generalization for future applications. The final obtained model enabled the SSC calculation, from water level and turbidity data, even when few samples were available for the training and verification procedures.     

高边坡时序位移滚动预测的SVM-Elman模型

基于支持向量机(SVM)和Elman神经网络,提出一种新的高边坡位移时序预测模型——SVM-Elman神经网络预测模型。在对实测数据学习的过程中,寻找最佳学习样本数和最佳测试样本数,利用经粒子群算法优化的SVM模型对边坡位移时间序列进行实时滚动预测;并运用Elman神经网络改进SVM的预测结果,得到SVM-Elman模型预测值,通过比较不同隐含层数的Elman神经网络对预测结果的影响,选择最佳隐含层数的SVM-Elman模型,实现对预测结果的改进。将SVM-Elman模型应用于某混凝土面板堆石坝左岸强卸荷岩体高边坡位移预测分析中,并与传统的SVM预测结果进行比较分析。结果表明,SVM-Elman模型在预测精度上有明显提高,预测结果科学可靠,在岩体高边坡时序位移预测中具有一定的工程应用价值。     

长距离输水系统的神经网络模型研究

常规特征线算法在仿真模拟长距离有压输水系统流量调节过渡过程时，存在计算时间较长等不足，故无法很好地满足实时控制和优化调度的需要．本文利用人工神经网络(ANN)所具有的高度非线性全局作用、良好的自适应性及联想记忆功能等优点，将人工神经网络引入到过渡过程的分析中，建立合适的神经网络模型，并通过该模型得出一系列计算成果．该成果与传统算法所得的结果相比较表明，人工神经网络在过渡流的分析中是可行的，并具有明显的优势．     

Comparison of Self-Organizing Map,Artificial Neural Network,and Co-Active Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Methods in Simulating Groundwater Quality: Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Water quality experiments are difficult, costly, and time-consuming. Therefore, different modeling methods can be used as an alternative for these experiments. To achieve the research objective, geospatial artificial intelligence approaches such as the self-organizing map (SOM), artificial neural network (ANN), and co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) were used to simulate groundwater quality in the Mazandaran plain in the north of Iran. Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used as a pre-processer and post-processer. Data from 85 drinking water wells was used as secondary data and were separated into two splits of (a) 70 percent for training (60% for training and 10% for cross-validation), and (b) 30 percent for the test stage. The groundwater quality index (GWQI) and the effective water quality factors (distance from industries, groundwater depth, and transmissivity of aquifer formations) were implemented as output and input variables, respectively. Statistical indices (i.e., R squared (R-sqr) and the mean squared error (MSE)) were utilized to compare the performance of three methods. The results demonstrate the high performance of the three methods in groundwater quality simulation. However, in the test stage, CANFIS (R-sqr?=?0.89) had a higher performance than the SOM (R-sqr?=?0.8) and ANN (R-sqr?=?0.73) methods. The tested CANFIS model was used to estimate GWQI values on the area of the plain. Finally, the groundwater quality was mapped in a GIS environment associated with CANFIS simulation. The results can be used to manage groundwater quality as well as support and contribute to the sustainable development goal (SDG)-6, SDG-11, and SDG-13.

     

Estimation of Wind-Driven Coastal Waves Near a Mangrove Forest Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

At the coastline of the Carey Island, mangroves provide natural protection against the wind-driven coastal waves. The area is located at the west Malaysia within the waters of the Straits of Malacca. Recently, its coastline has been exposed to increasing rates of coastal erosion due to mangrove deforestation. In order to provide mitigating measures, it is necessary to study wave characteristics in this region. For this purpose, we collected 5 years (2009 to 2013) of hourly measurements for wind direction, wave height, wind speed and wave period. Moreover, we used the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to estimate the wave period and height. The model was trained using the measured data. The validation of the model gave satisfactory R² values of 0.8484 and 0.9496 for wave height and wave period, respectively. The findings from this study suggest that fuzzy logic based technique satisfactorily predicts the differences between multiple inputs and single output in terms of non-linear relationship. The developed model can be used to further study the effect of non-linear wind-driven waves on the depleting coastal mangrove forests in similar tropical and sub-tropical areas. We suggest further research to test the model in different geographical locations, such as in deep-ocean, narrow straits and other coastal sites, which were not covered in this study.     

Performance Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration Estimation Using Climate Based Methods and Artificial Neural Networks

This study is an attempt to find best alternative method to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) for the Mahanadi reservoir project (MRP) command area located at Raipur (Chhattisgarh) in India, when input climatic parameters are insufficient to apply standard Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations Penman–Monteith (P–M) method. To identify the best alternative climatic based method that yield results closest to the P–M method, performances of four climate based methods namely Blaney–Criddle, Radiation, Modified Penman and Pan evaporation were compared with the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method. Performances were evaluated using the statistical indices. The statistical indices used in the analysis were the standard error of estimate (SEE), raw standard error of estimate (RSEE) and the model efficiency. Study was extended to identify the ability of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for estimation of ET_o in comparison to climatic based methods. The networks, using varied input combinations of climatic variables have been trained using the backpropagation with variable learning rate training algorithm. ANN models were performed better than the climatic based methods in all performance indices. The analyses of results of ANN model suggest that the ET_o can be estimated from maximum and minimum temperature using ANN approach in MPR area.     

A Comparative Assessment of Artificial Neural Network,Generalized Regression Neural Network,Least-Square Support Vector Regression,and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting in Linear and Nonlinear Conditions

Monthly forecasting of streamflow is of particular importance in water resources management especially in the provision of rule curves for dams. In this paper, the performance of four data-driven models with different structures including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Least Square-Support Vector Regression (LS-SVR), and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNN) are evaluated in order to forecast monthly inflow to Karkheh dam, Iran, in linear and non-linear conditions while the optimized values of the model parameters are determined in the same condition via the Leave-One-Out Cross Validation (LOOCV) method. Results show that the performance of the models is different in linear and nonlinear conditions; the cumulative ranking of the models according to the three assessment criteria including NSE, RMSE and R² indicates that ANN performs best in linear conditions while LS-SVR, GRNN and KNN are in the next ranks, respectively. But in nonlinear conditions, the best performance belongs to LS-SVR, followed by KNN, ANN, and GRNN models.     

黄河下游悬浮颗粒物和沉积物对磷的吸附

选取黄河口、济南及花园口3个断面,在其沉积物表层5 cm处取样,进行了吸光度和吸附量试验,研究了黄河下游悬浮物和沉积物对磷的吸附作用.结果表明:①黄河下游对磷的吸附等温线数据符合Langmuir方程,临界平衡磷浓度为0.005～0.08mg/L;②pH值对沉积物磷吸附有影响,当pH=3~5时为慢吸附(包括负吸附),当pH=5～9时为稳定区,当pH=9~11时为快吸附;③沉积物中磷的吸附量随盐度升高逐渐降低,解吸量随盐度升高而逐渐增加.     

基于混沌小波与支持向量机的径流预测

以淮河流域沙颍河水系沙河和澧河上游的水库为例,建立了月均流量的混沌小波支持向量机组合预报模型,充分利用了混沌分析的相空间重构、小波分析的多分辨率功能以及支持向量机的非线性逼近能力,并采用NSE、PBIAS和RSR对组合预测模型进行了评价。结果表明:混沌小波支持向量机组合预测模型的识别期和验证期模拟精度均较高,均优于混沌支持向量机模型。     

基于人工神经网络算法的水厂混凝投药控制系统研究与开发

针对自来水生产投药工艺长滞后、非线性、多输入因子、不确定性、时变性、模糊性等特点,采用人工神经网络算法对周围环境自适应和自学习,研究和开发了一套用于水厂混凝投药的自动控制系统。系统以武汉市第一大水厂——宗关水厂为例,研究了Elman神经网络算法对控制系统混凝投药效果的影响,并基于OLE-DB开放性数据访问标准实现对WinCC工控系统样本数据读取和存储的预处理。系统主要包括投药工艺、数据查询、曲线生成、配药查询、报警日志、报警统计、药耗统计、波动评价、报警设置等功能模块,在宗关水厂的成功运行实现了混凝投药工艺生产运行参数的在线监视和全自动化运行。为水厂的安全生产提供了保障,达到了节约药耗、减少人工、降低操作人员劳动强度的目的。     

人工神经网络模型在黄河水质预测中的应用

采用画匠营子断面2004-2009年逐周水质指标资料作为神经网络模型的训练样本,对BP神经网络进行训练,分别建立了pH值、溶解氧、氨氮、高锰酸盐指数的预测模型.为了验证模型的正确性,利用训练好的神经网络模型,采用调整后的权值和阈值,将2010年的数据作为独立样本进行预测检验.结果表明:基于BP神经网络的水质指标预测模型收敛速度快,对训练样本具有很好的拟合能力,且对检验样本的预测精度较高.