Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities

Water Resources Management - The projection of climate change impacts can be very crucial for water resources planning and management. Hashtgerd plain is an immigrant destination due to...     

Facing Water Scarcity in Jordan

Abstract

Jordan is extremely water-scarce with just 167 m³ per capita per year to meet domestic, industrial, agricultural, tourism, and environmental demands. The heavy exploitation of water resources has contributed to declines in the levels of aquifers and the Dead Sea. Rapid growth in demand, particularly for higher quality water for domestic, industrial, and tourism uses, is significantly increasing pressure on agricultural and environmental uses of water, both of which must continue to adapt to reduced volumes and lower quality water. The agricultural sector has begun to respond by improving irrigation efficiency and increasing the use of recycled water. Total demand for water still exceeds renewable supplies while inadequate treatment of sewage used for irrigation creates potential environmental and health risks and presents agricultural marketing challenges that undermine the competitiveness of exports. The adaptive capability of the natural environment may already be past sustainable limits with oasis wetlands having been most seriously affected. Development of new water resources is extremely expensive in Jordan with an average investment cost of US$4 to $5 per cubic meter. This paper examines four integrated water resources management (IWRM) approaches of relevance to Jordan: water reuse, demand management, energy-water linkages, and transboundary water management. While progress in Jordan has been made, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation continues to be concerned about the acute water scarcity the country faces as well as the need to continue working with concerned stakeholders to assure future water supplies.     

气候变化对流域水资源影响评价中的不确定性问题

<正>确评价气候变化背景下的流域水资源是实现其可持续性开发利用的基础,气候变化对流域水资源影响的评价一般采取气候情景驱动水文循环模型的方法。由于气候系统和水文循环过程的复杂性,该方法在气候情景、水文循环模拟及评价过程中存在很大的不确定性。提高流域气候情景预测精度和完善影响评价模型是降低气候变化影响评价结果不确定性的主要方式。本文介绍了气候变化对流域水资源影响的一般评价方法,分析了影响评价结果不确定性的因素,并讨论了降低评价结果不确定性的方式。     

Managing Adaptation of Urban Water Systems in a Changing Climate

Current evidence is that climate change is occurring, it is largely manmade and it will have significant implications for human civilisation. Australia is particularly vulnerable to the anticipated effects of climate change, creating major challenges for water resource management and water supply security. Climate change adaptation offers a means by which we can reduce our exposure to future climate change risks, whilst at the same time exploiting any potential benefits that may arise from climatic changes. This review outlines the current major climate change adaptation challenges facing the water supply industry at large, with a particular focus on these challenges in an Australian context. It also aims to highlight the critical knowledge gaps and strategies required to assist in the formulation of adaptation responses to the range of potential impacts on water infrastructure and future water security. A diverse range of management and assessment techniques are used by relevant professions in industry. Here, an adaptive management approach is presented highlighting the important information required for robust assessment.     

Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is undergoing rapid local and global social and environmental changes. All indicators point to an increase in environmental and water scarcity problems with negative implications towards current and future sustainability. Water management in Mediterranean countries is challenged these pressures and needs to evolve to reach the target of increasing population with reliable access to freshwater established by the Millennium Development Goals. This paper first reviews and evaluates current and future social and environmental pressures on water resources, including climate change. The results show that pressures are not homogeneous across the region and sectors of water use. Second the paper evaluates the adaptation strategies to cope with water scarcity, including technology, use of strategic groundwater, and management. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for managing the risk of water scarcity based on preparedness rather than a crisis approach. The importance of local management at the basin level is emphasized, but the potential benefits depend on the appropriate multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder coordination.     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal

Reservoirs often play an important role in mitigating water supply problems. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this challenge in the Alto Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. The study analysed whether or not the shortage of water supply can be effectively addressed through the construction of a new reservoir (two-reservoir system) by considering future climate projections. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Outputs from four General Circulation Models (GCM) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations. A general increase in temperature is expected in the future while the change in precipitation is more uncertain as per the differences among climatic models. In general, annual precipitation would slightly decrease while seasonal changes would be more significant, with more precipitation in winter and much less in spring and summer. SWAT simulations suggest that the existence of two-reservoir will better solve the water supply problems under current climate conditions compared to a single-reservoir system. However in the future, the reliability of this solution will decrease, especially due to the variability of projections from the different climatic models. The solution to water supply problems in this region, adopted taking only present-day climate into account, will likely be inefficient for water supply management under future climate conditions.     

Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

This paper provides an overview of the 'standard' methodology developed for the United States Country Studies Program on the Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Clim ate Change. The methodology is described in more detail in accompanying articles in this issue. A standard methodology was developed for two reasons. First, for countries with little or no experience in hydrologic and water resources modelling, it provided a simple, yet appropriate set of modelling tools that could be quickly learned and applied with a limited data set. Second, it provided a consistent methodology for synthesizing results for regional and global assessments as well as cross-country and cross-regional comparisons.     

Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins

Water Resources Management - Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and...     

Characterisation of the Sensitivity of Water Resources Systems to Climate Change

This paper offers a methodology that enables characterisation of the behaviour of water resources systems under the impact of climate change through assessment of sensitivity patterns in a wide range of hydrologic variations produced by such change. Analysis is based on the application of two indicators that, in turn, draw on the results of a system optimisation model. Under this methodology the potential sensitivity of water resources systems in the cases of different climate projections are visualised, allowing those systems that require special attention in their adaptation to climate change to be identified. The methodology is applied to three basins located in Spain: Guadalquivir, Ebro and the Spanish part of the international basin Duero.     

黄河源区水文水资源对气候变化的响应

气候变化是目前世界各国科学工作者关注的重要问题之一。以黄河源区为研究区,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Spearman秩次检验相关法分析了过去60 a降水、气温及径流的变化趋势;利用10套情景数据驱动大尺度分布式VIC模型,分析了黄河源区未来径流和土壤含水量的可能变化。结果表明,过去60 a黄河源区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,平均每10 a上升约0.23℃,高于全球地表平均升温速率0.13℃/10 a;日最低气温比日平均气温和日最高气温的升高趋势显著;年降水量呈微弱增加趋势,年径流量呈微弱减少趋势,两者变化趋势都不显著;可变下渗容量模型能较好地模拟黄河源区的水文过程,率定期及检验期的水量相对误差都在5%以内,月径流过程的Nash效率系数达到0.9。采用4个全球气候模式、4种排放情景组成的共10个情景系列来驱动水文模型,结果表明,未来黄河源区径流和土壤含水量将有可能呈减少趋势,未来唐乃亥站的年内日径流量分配的不均匀性将更明显,发生干旱的可能性进一步加大,将会对工农牧业生产构成威胁,应及早采取措施。     

黄河水资源适应气候变化的策略研究

针对气候变化背景下黄河水资源量显著减小、水资源供需矛盾进一步加剧的问题,分析黄河流域气候变化态势,量化评估了气候变化对黄河流域水资源供需影响的程度,分析了未来流域水资源供需形势,识别了流域水资源安全状况。将水资源常规调配与应急管理相结合,从实施最严格水资源管理、开展高效利用、合理配置、优化调度、加强保护、广泛开源、适时调水、科学管理等方面提出提升水资源管理能力和调控水平的策略措施,为黄河流域水资源管理有序适应气候变化提出了方向性建议。     

Review on Regional Water Resources Assessment Models under Stationary and Changing Climate

A comprehensive assessment of the water resources available in a region or a river basin is essential for finding sustainable solutions for water-related problems concerning both the quantity and quality of the water resources. Research on the development and application of water balance models at different spatial and temporal scales has been carried out since later part of the 19th century. As a result, a great deal of experience on various models and methods has been gained. This paper reviews both traditional long-term water balance methods and the new generation distributed models for assessing available water resources under stationary and changing climatic conditions at different spatial and temporal scales. The applicability and limitations of the methods are addressed. Finally, current advances and challenges in regional- and large-scale assessment of water resources are presented.     

Decision Support for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Water Resources Management

Climate change adaptation (CCA) has recently emerged as a new fundamental dimension to be considered in the planning and management of water resources. Because of the need to consider the already perceived changes in climate trends, variability and extremes, and their interactions with evolving social and ecological systems, water management is now facing new challenges. The research community is expected to contribute with innovative methods and tools to support to decision- and policy-makers. Decision Support Systems (DSSs), have a relatively long history in the water management sector. They are usually developed upon pre-existing hydrologic simulation models, providing interfaces for facilitated use beyond the limited group of model developers, and specific routines for decision making (e.g. optimization methods). In recent years, the traditional focus of DSS research has shifted away from the software component, towards the process of structuring problems and aiding decisions, thus including in particular robust methods for stakeholders’ participation. The paper analyses the scientific literature, identifies the main open issues, and proposes an innovative operational approach for the implementation of participatory planning and decision-making processes for CCA in the water domain.     

气候变化和人类活动对黑河水资源的影响

随着全球变暖和人类活动强度的增强,水资源正经历着巨大的改变,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响就显的尤为重要。选择西部干旱区内陆河黑河的中游为研究区,分别运用主观、客观赋权法和组合赋权法分析气候变化和人类活动中各因素对黑河水资源影响的权重。组合权重评价结果表明:人类活动是研究区水资源变化的主要原因,其累计权重达66.63%,大于气候变化影响权重33.37%;人类活动因素中人口占主导作用,权重为17.67%;气候变化因素中年降水量是主要因素,权重为24.83%。     

中国水资源响应全球气候变化的对策建议

根据全球气候变化对我国水资源影响的分析,应在无悔策略的指导下,运用科技、经济手段,加强基础设施建设,建立现代化的水利管理体系,以提高我国水资源系统对气候变化的适应能力。     

气候变化条件下山东省未来水资源情势预估

利用山东省实测降水资料、政府水资源公报数据,采用小波分析、数理统计等方法,预估了山东省未来水资源情势。结果表明:从目前到2030年左右,山东省降水将处于相对枯水期,受降水量减少和极端降水强度增大的影响,当地水资源量将减少、水资源开发利用难度将增大;黄河水和长江水等客水资源受到干流上游来水量减少、脆弱性增强、调蓄工程不完善、水价成本高等因素限制,未来情势不容乐观;目前山东省非常规水资源利用潜力较大,应在增大非常规水资源利用力度的同时,做好建设节水型社会、完善现代水网工程、提高水利工程调蓄能力等工作。     

Water Structures and Climate Change Impact: a Review

Climate change impact started to play significant role since the last three decades almost in every aspects of life especially on meteorological and climatological events and their impacts on water resources, which are managed by engineering structures. Its effects on hydro-meteorological data are assessed by means of available methodologies, but the climate change impact of engineering water structures (dams, culverts, channels, wells, highways and their side drainages, levees, etc.) are not treated equally. This paper provides the review of the necessary adaptation, combat and mitigation activities against the climate change for protection, construction or augmentation of the engineering water structures design capacity. Additionally, land use practices and geomorphological changes also trigger the climate changes on the engineering water structures. The main aim of this paper is to present the impact of such changes on the engineering water structure capacity, operation and maintenance.

     

Impact of Climate Change on Salinization of Coastal Water Resources

Water Resources Management - A density-dependent numerical model was set up to quantify the actual and future (2050) salinization of a coastal aquifer in the Po Delta (Italy). SEAWAT 4.0 was used...     

Optimal Hydropower Generation Under Climate Change Conditions for a Northern Water Resources System

This paper examines climate change impacts on the water resources system of the Manicouagan River (Québec, Canada). The objective is to evaluate the performance of existing infrastructures under future climate projections and the associated uncertainties. The main purpose of the water resources system is hydropower production. A reservoir optimization algorithm, Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), was used to derive weekly operating decisions for the existing system subject to reservoir inflows reflecting future climate, for optimum hydropower production. These projections are simulations from the SWAT hydrologic model for climate change scenarios for the period from 2010 to 2099. Results show that the climate change will alter the hydrological regime of the study area: earlier timing of the spring flood, reduced spring peak flow, and increased annual inflows volume in the future compared to the historical climate. The SSDP optimization algorithm adapted the operating policy to the future hydrological regime by adjusting water reservoir levels in the winter and spring, and increasing the release through turbines, which in the end increased power generation. However, there could be more unproductive spills for some power plants, which would decrease the overall efficiency of the existing water resources system.     

Economic and Social Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Egypt

Literature is em erging on the adaptation of water resource systems to climate change (Stakhiv, 1995; Strzepek & Sm ith, 1995). These adaptations are generally discussed at either the sectoral or at the micro-economic level. However, little has been said about the macro-economic adaptation to shifts in water resources due to climate change. This lack of discussion is primarily due to the fact that very few countries have been able to make a com prehensive national assessment of climate change im pacts on water resources at the same scale as a macro-economic modelling analysis. W here macro-economic m odelling has been done, the water resource systems are highly regional and difficult to aggregate to a single national im pact. W here homogenous water resources systems exist, m acro-econom ic impact modelling has not incorporated water resources. This paper examines the macro-economic adaptations to climate change im pacts on national water resources. Because of the problems listed above, a 'laboratory' country was chosen. Egypt has a single water resource- the Nile- and a substantial portion of Egypt's economic activity is related to this river. Changes in Nile discharges can be directly linked to macro-economic accoun ts, yet obviously more strongly linked to the agricultural sector. For this reason, a macro-economic m odel has been used which contains a disaggregated agricultural sector and a highly aggregated non-agricultural sector. A discussion of technical adaptations to climate change-induced reductions in Nile flows is presented. W hile these technical adaptations of the N ile are important, the macro-economic impacts of decreases or increases in Nile River discharge are shown to be minor compared with fu ture socioeconomic development and domestic policy strategies. The paper concludes with a discussion of anticipatory econom ic and policy adaptations that appear to be more significant than technical adaptations for Egypt.