近期国际石油市场价格走势不容乐观

从近一个时期国际石油价格变动的趋势,特别是刺激石油价格上涨的各种因素依然存在等方面的信息看,近期内国际市场石油价格走势不容乐观。造成国际石油市场价格继续上涨的原因错综复杂,既有市场基本面因素的推动,也有投机交易猖镢、某些国家因自身战略利益而人为纵容以及地缘政治等因素的影响。但总的来看,全球石油总需求快速增长是造成石油供需偏紧,进而推动石油价格持续上涨的最基本因素。国际石油市场价格上涨,对我国经济发展必定造成一定负面影响,但从总体上看,这种影响相对有限,且在可控范围之内。国家有关主管部门应尽快制定中长期战略与近期措施相结合的对策,以化解石油价格上涨给我国经济发展带来的不利影响。     

媒体之声

中国经营报石油也是个泡沫2005年3月12日谢国忠关于中国消费量已经远远超过美国的报道正在误导市场的价格走势,他们倾向于推动石油价格和其他原材料价格快速上涨。石油价格高涨对中国造成的冲击,是当前世界经济整体向好中最脆弱的环节。如果石油价格还将继续上涨,全世界石油出口商们从中暴敛的横财将超过进入标准普尔指数的前500家公司的收入总额。2004年,中国每天的石油消费量是700万桶。因为油价高企,中国全年要多支付200亿美元。如果2005年中国在进口石油上所付出的成本超过2004年的话,有可能要支付中国GPD的2％。尽管现在的石油价格只相当于上世纪70     

对国际市场石油价格走势的初步判断

对未来石油价格走势作了分析和判断,认为当前较低的价格水平将维持半年至一年的时间,价格走低是石油价格泡沫破灭的必然结果,但从长期来看油价仍会上涨,列出了如市场上潜在的流动性不断积累、石油供求关系紧张的基本面未改、石油投资项目被迫搁置或延迟致石油产能扩张受限等导致油价长期上涨的主要因素;并提出了改革石油储备机制、推行燃油费改税改革、节能降耗以及完善国内成品油价格形成机制的建议。     

石油2023:绷紧的供应链——解析国际能源署《石油市场报告2018》

正2018-2023年,全球石油需求仍将稳健上行,但上游投资尚未从低落状态中恢复,石油价格波动的风险将增加。目前,全球石油库存几乎消失,油价已经回升。油价上涨为减产国带来了回报,也推动美国石油产量新一轮的增长。加上巴西、加拿大和挪威的增长,石油市场看上去已足够满足至2020年的需求。石油市场前往2023年之旅的起点相对舒适,但这并不意味着可以掉以轻心。目前仍需更多投资来保障供应安全,以满足未来强劲增长的石油需求。     

金融危机对石油市场的影响及对策

美国次贷危机造成的全球性金融危机给包括石油在内的实体经济造成冲击,国际石油价格迅速回落,市场进入调整期。2011年之后随着世界经济的复苏和步入新的增长期,油价可能进入新一轮的上涨周期。在金融危机对国内外石油市场造成深刻影响的背景下,我国可通过转变经济增长方式、继续深化石油价格机制改革、增加国际石油市场的话语权、加强国际能源合作、全球整合与配置油气资源等措施进行有效应对。     

打造风险屏障——降低油价涨跌带来的经济风险

三年以来,国际石油市场风云变幻。石油价格仿若坐上了翻滚过山车一般,从暴跌到暴涨再到全线下落,其变动之剧烈前所未有。油价暴涨暴跌,牵一发而动全身。包括政府、企业、老百姓在内方方面面的人士都开始为石油悬心。对中国而言,油价涨落之间便能从深层影响国家经济。如何减小油价波动对我国经济的冲击?如何减小油价动荡对我国石油行业的冲击?专家建议国家和企业都要为自己寻找一个缓冲区间。国家应建立自己的战略储备,要创建自己的石油市场,需改善自己的油价形成机制……企业的目标是站稳脚跟,力降成本,不为油市风云所撼动。     

虚拟经济依然离不开石油

<正>目前,一次又一次来势汹汹的石油冲击,似乎给人们带来观察世界经济变迁的一次机会,一个窗口。如果油价暴跌或飙升不能够引发世界性经济动荡,则说明世界经济确实发生转型,至少西方发达国家的经济形态已经更新,知识经济将改变经济行为,将改变传统经济运行的许多规律,我们应对世界经济进行重新认识。如果石油价格剧烈波动,最终     

低油价对油企的影响及工程院面临的挑战与机遇

石油价格的下跌对我们第二大石油消费国来说是有利于的,但对国内处于上游的石油企业来说则是一种挑战,影响也是相当深远的。简要介绍了油价下跌对中国油企的影响以及低油价下新疆油田公司工程技术研究院海外项目面临的风险、挑战和机遇。     

完善我国石油定价机制的政策建议

我国实行的“与国际油价接轨”的石油定价机制,其最大的好处是有利于鼓励国内石油企业“走出去”,但无助于规避石油价格风险,也不能反应我国石油的供需关系,因此改革与完善现行的石油价格形成机制已势在必行:第一,打破国有企业的市场垄断,鼓励非国有经济进入石油生产领域;取消上下游领域和南北海陆地域的限制;全面开放上游和管道领域;鼓励社会资金进入石油流通领域。第二,建立市场形成价格的机制,国家由价格制订者转变为价格监管者。第三,协调各能源行业的发展,统一考虑其市场化改革进程。第四,用三大石油公司的部分国有股分红设立石油价格风险基金。第五,建立石油期货市场。     

2007年上半年我国石油行业景气度分析

2007年上丰年，我国石油行业景气度保持稳中有落的态势，似乎石油供求并不紧张。但近几个月原油进口价格开始反弹，国际油价上涨已对我国石油市场有所影响。而且国内经济增速持续加快，石油加工业投资增速开始回升，原油需求量将被加速放大，在需求带动和国际油价推动下，石油行业景气度可能发生扭转，原油的供求矛盾可能再次转换，油价将进入新一轮上涨阶段.     

低油价对天然气产业链的影响

2014年下半年以来,国际原油价格迅速下跌,给全球天然气产业链都带来了深刻的影响。如何应对低油价,是所有油气从业者都不能回避的问题。为此,梳理了近年来全球天然气产业链从高油价时期步入低油价时期的发展历程;分析了低油价对全球天然气生产格局、价格,以及发展前景的影响;并着重探讨了持续的低油价为中国的天然气产业链带来的机遇和挑战。结论认为:1油价下跌使油气公司经营业绩下滑,为度过当前困境,油气公司都采取了削减资本支出等措施,对未来油气产量可能会产生不利影响;2低油价使世界天然气价格都有不同程度的下跌,相对原油价格,天然气经济性下降明显;3非常规天然气因其高成本遭受低油价冲击大,国外非常规油气公司破产现象加剧,国内油气企业对待非常规资产的态度差异大,以中石油、中石化为代表的部分企业继续加紧推进其他企业慎重对待;4油气资产并购市场因多个因素影响,市场表现较为"冷静";5中国天然气产业链正处于快速发展阶段,本轮油价下跌对天然气产业链结构改革而言则是机遇与挑战并存。     

海上注水开发油田单井经济极限含水率分析

经济极限含水率对注水开发油田具有重要的经济意义,目前行业标准笼统选取98%的含水率作为单井经济极限含水率,没有考虑经济因素,显然有失合理性。为合理确定不同经济条件下的单井经济极限含水率,评估单井生产是否具有经济效益,基于油价、油田实际产出、成本、税金等经济参数,运用投入产出平衡理论,首次推导出海上注水开发油田单井经济极限含水率计算模型。以渤海Q油田为例,计算了不同油价、不同采油速度下单井经济极限含水率,并绘制相应图版,评价了油井生产是否具有经济效益。结果表明：成本一定时,油价和采油速度对经济极限含水率影响较大,经济极限含水率随油价的升高而增大,随采油速度的增大而增大。对具有高采油速度的海上注水开发油田而言,高油价（$100/bbl,1 bbl=0.159 m³）下的经济极限含水率高达99.11%,远高于目前行业标准规定的98%的经济极限含水率数值,延长了油井高含水期效益生产的寿命,大幅度提高了单井经济效益,对海上注水开发油田单井生产策略具有重要的指导意义。     

Economic Performance of China’s Oil and Petrochemical Industry in First Quarter

International oil price continued souring in the first quarter of 2008. It was bouncing up and down above $100/barrel and even getting close to $120/barrel by the end of April. Products related to energy and resources all responded with higher prices, triggering a general increase in cost of petroleum and petrochemical industry. World＇s economy was seriously affected by USA＇s subprime lending crisis, weakening US dollar, sullen stock markets, and etc, major economies lowered their expectations for economic growth rate. China also stipulated a series of adjusting policies, such as policies concerning labor costs, environment protection, export tariff rebate, and so on. Influences by the combination of the situation and new policies, plastic products and textile and other labor extensive sectors for export witnessed reduction of export and some petroleum and petrochemical products were over supplied than actually demanded.     

Oil Security-Top Priority for China

Oil price hike on the international market may pose a potential threat to China's economy.Niu Li, a senior economist at the State Information Centre, said the price hike could drag down China's economic growth by at least 0.8 percentage point. A direct impact of the oil price rise was that China would have to pay extra money to import the same amount of oil as it planned. The price rise would also have an indirect impact on the economy."Companies' profits will drop, while consumers will have to pay more for transportation"Niu said. The high oil price was a major reason for price rises in means of production and living materials, which have increased the likelihood of inflation.     

广东省炼油与化工产业现状及发展建议

对广东省炼油与化工产业的发展现状与前景进行了综述,并对其面临的机遇与挑战进行态势分析.提出在"粤港澳大湾区"战略视域下,广东省炼油与化工产业具有较大优势,未来应将发展重点放在化工上,沿广东沿海石化产业带布局发展现代石油化工,利用自身优势发展新材料化工,持续推进技术创新发展生物化工,利用区位特色发展海洋化工,从而推动广东...     

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China’s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China’s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a significant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheritance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.     

High Oil Price Calls for More Motivated Actions in China

The oil price has been soaring since the early of this year, and lingered at above US$70 per barrel for a while lately. International oil prices have repeatedly hit record high, imposing unprecedented impact on the economic growth and citizens＇ life in China. In order to stabilize the domestic oil nlarket, ensure a safe oil supply, and reduce the impact of high oil price on China＇s economic growth, the Chinese government should take more active measures to address these issues as soon as possible.     

Technology choice and the economic effects of a ban on the use of antimicrobial feed additives in swine rations

The use of antimicrobial feed additives (AFAs) in animal rations has come under review recently in Europe and the US. A recent evaluation of the economic impact of a ban on AFAs on the US pork industry suggests that on average changes in productivity and fixed costs would result in increased costs and prices as producers adjust to the new regulation. These effects will vary among producers. Producers with high quality management and modern buildings would experience smaller costs from a ban. Also, new marketing technologies that support traceback of product to producers and additional compensation for pork produced without AFAs allow producers to capture price premiums to compensate for higher costs resulting from reduced use of AFAs.     

China''s Oil Giants Benefited from High Oil Price

High crude prices and strong local demand boosted the profits of China's oil sector in the year's first half, but government-capped petrol prices, cooling economic growth and rising costs threaten future earnings. State-owned big-three oil companies - PetroChina, Sinopec Corp and CNOOC Ltd - posted net profit increases ranging from 11 percent to 48 percent for the first six months of this year.     

WTO条件下的中国金融业监管

金融业是当代经济的核心,其活跃程度与开放和自由化程度密切相关,直接决定了一国经济水平的高低。然而金融业的过度开放与自由化,也会给经济带来巨大的灾难,20世纪末以来一次又一次爆发的金融危机已经告诉我们,金融业监管必须适时跟进。加入WTO的10年来,我国金融业的开放使得金融业的监管成本增加,监管难度加大。合理运用WTO相关规则加强对我国金融业全面、有效的监管,是一个需要持续研究和改进的问题。