The effect of the decline in oil revenue on the import patterns of the members of the gulf cooperation council

This paper examines the impact of the fluctuations in oil revenue on the import patterns of the GCC countries. The study is a disaggregated analysis of the relationship between imports of various commodity groups, using two-digit SIT classifications and per capita income in each of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The research shows that the reduction in oil revenue since late 1982 has completely upset the import-income relationship which was developed during the boom years, 1974–1981.     

The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis

This paper examines the effects of oil price shocks on the real GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The empirical method used is the nonlinear cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013) in which short-run and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variable(s). The results suggest evidence of asymmetries in all the cases. We find significant positive oil price changes in all the cases with the expected positive sign, implying that increases in oil price lead to increases in real GDP. Conversely, negative oil price changes are significant for only Kuwait and Qatar with the expected positive sign, suggesting that decreases in oil price lead to decreases in their real GDP. Further analysis implemented using panel data shows that positive oil prices changes increase real GDP and negative changes decrease real GDP. Overall, the results suggest that positive oil price changes have a considerably larger impact on real GDP than negative changes.     

新冠疫情背景下中国石油进口安全问题研究

新冠疫情致全球石油产业发展进入新一轮动荡期,为避免国际石油贸易受阻对我国能源安全带来的不良冲击,防止石油供应中断对我国经济社会发展带来消极影响,需要提前制定应对和防范举措,谋划降低我国石油消费对外依存度的若干措施.一方面,要从能源替代的视角出发,立足本土资源条件,降低石油的长期使用.另一方面,需要扩大石油战略储备,拓展...     

Energy Policies of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—possibilities and limitations of ecological modernization in rentier states

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are major oil and natural gas producing countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. The six GCC countries fall in the top 25 countries of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and are perceived as the main actors blocking international climate change negotiations. The aim of this article is to discuss from a policy perspective the capacities of the GCC states to switch toward an ecological modernization of their energy sectors. At the beginning of the paper, I analyze the benefits of transforming oil wealth into funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency. After this, I discuss obstacles to such a transformation process based on the rentier states theory. Finally, I investigate governance of the GCC on all levels (international, regional, and local). The article shows that the GCC countries have recently adopted a more pro-active approach toward ecological modernization. This reorientation has not yet resulted in the development of consistent strategies and policies, however. The concluding assumption based on the concept of policy transfer is that pioneering projects such as Masdar City and innovative regulation like the green building code in Dubai will spread within the GCC.     

Petroleum exploration in the non-OPEC LDCs The effects of recent world developments

The recent decline in world petroleum prices and the uncertainty with respect to future oil prices is having an adverse effect on exploration in non-OPEC LDCs, particularly in the oil-importing developing countries. The fiscal regimes of LDCs, as applied to petroleum investment, have tended to limit incentives for foreign investment, especially in countries without high reserve potential. Recent developments have exacerbated these fiscal deterrents to petroleum investment, particularly in countries where there is little likelihood of discovering large oil fields. In addition, the external debt crisis in a number of LDCs where petroleum operations are largely in the hands of government oil enterprises is likely to reduce the availability of external financing for oil exploration and development.     

“十一五”我国油气资源形势与发展趋势预测

"十一五"期间,我国油气资源事业取得了很大成就。预计"十二五"期间,我国石油天然气探明储量将进一步增长,但油气消费量将继续增长,对外依存度将进一步增大,应尽量将实行总量控制的政策落实到位。     

探究增压直喷机型机油稀释的影响因素及解决方法

机油稀释现象是发动机常见的试验表象之一,尤其是增压缸内直喷汽油发动机,机油稀释较明显。机油发生稀释后会破坏机油使用性能,降低运动粘度,严重时还导致机油压力下降,零部件功能丧失,发动机可靠性下降。主要分析一款1.8L GDI缸内增压直喷发动机产生机油稀释的影响因素进而对机油牌号、机油温度、水温、SOI角度、曲轴箱通风系统、活塞漏气量、喷油器布置方式进行Benchmark分析及优化验证,为改善增压直喷发动机机油稀释现象提供解决方法,机油稀释包括燃油喷射稀释和机油挥发稀释,重点探究的方向是燃油喷射稀释。     

Renewable energy sources and rationale use of energy development in the countries of GCC: Myth or reality?

The large oil and natural gas resource base and the greater competitiveness of conventional energy supply technologies based on oil and gas is a key energy characteristic in the countries of the GCC. Until today, mostly pilot and research Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and Rational Use of Energy (RUE) activities were conducted. However, these countries seem to be ready to take a more active part in the development of environmental friendly energy technologies. RES are expected to play a greater role in the future based on the rich natural potential of the region. In addition, appropriate efforts to formulate strategic RUE policies are initiated for assuring buildings sustainability and providing guidelines for future architecture. In this context, GCC countries are realizing the inevitability of putting climate change issues on the top of the list of priorities in the process of economic and social development. This paper includes an analytical review of the current RES and RUE development status in the GCC region, giving special emphasis to the business opportunities that the region offers for regional and international companies involved in this market.     

2019年我国石油市场分析与2020年展望

2019年,我国成品油消费增速放缓,炼油产能快速扩张使成品油产量增速加快,成品油净出口再创新高;在增储上产政策促动下,国内原油储产量探底回升;受炼油能力增长拉动原油净口量仍较快增长、首次突破5亿t,对外依存度依然维持高位。油气体制改革举措逐步落地,石油市场进一步开放、主体多元化进程加快,油气管网运营机制改革取得标志性进展,同时在调整税费政策、完善油气资源开发利用政策等方面出台了系列规定。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对一季度我国成品油需求造成较大影响,但将逐步回复,全年成品油需求预计低速增长,原油产量有望持续回升,炼油能力持续较快增长将推动成品油出口继续增加。     

Optimal oil import tariffs: An international perspective for the 1980s

Since the oil price explosion of 1973–74, oil policy has focused on two problem areas: firstly, chronically high international oil prices and secondly, vulnerability to disruptions in oil supply. Until recently, many held that measures designed to reduce the level of oil imports would mitigate both of these problems. Oil import reductions would put downward pressure on world oil prices during normal supply conditions, while simultaneously reducing the importer's exposure to oil supply interruptions. By the end of the 1970s, however, several analysts had concluded that certain characteristics of the world oil market would minimize both of these potential benefits of oil import reductions. Now, after more than two years of glut on the world oil market, many doubt that policy-induced import reductions would have any beneficial effects at all. This paper assesses the value of oil import reduction policies during the oil market conditions that are expected to prevail during the 1980s. The conclusion is that there are still substantial benefits to be gained by implementing efficient import reductions. This conclusion is robust over a broad range of assumptions about OPEC objectives and other key determinants of world oil market behaviour.     

Price and prospects for oil : Carrying the burden of excess capacity in the 1980s and beyond

The continuing decline in world oil prices will not be halted in the short term, and prospects for the long run are not encouraging. There is a problem of unprecedented gravity in the surplus capacity of the oil industry. A glut of 10 million bbl/day of crude oil remains unsold, the cohesion of the OPEC cartel is becoming more strained, and a sizeable proportion of refinery plant has been taken off-stream. The basic difficulty is that high interest rates have curbed international capital formation and depressed demand. Upward pressures on the US dollar have been created by the deficit on US domestic and external accounts, and have retarded the recovery of the global economy. Today the cost of money exceeds the factor price of oil, and the market is highly unstable. The devastating costs of carrying surplus capacity are likely to survive through the 1980s.     

The effect of the downturn in oil prices on the relative efficiency of government expenditure in the gcc countries

This paper tests a control model to discover the effect of the decline in oil prices on the relative efficiency of government expenditure in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The econometric analysis shows that as a consequence of the decline in oil prices, the GCC countries need a relatively higher proportional rate of growth in their government expenditure to maintain a given percentage of income growth in the long run. This may, however, prove difficult, which necessitates greater reliance on other means of control.     

A panel data analysis of the determinants of oil consumption: The case of Australia

The goal of this paper is to examine the determinants of oil consumption for a panel consisting of six Australian States and one territory, namely Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern territory, for the period 1985–2006. We find that oil consumption, oil prices and income are panel cointegrated. We estimate long-run elasticities and find that oil prices have had a statistically insignificant impact on oil consumption, while income has had a statistically significant positive effect on oil consumption.     

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988–1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants’ expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band.     

以循环经济的理念 促进油页岩产业健康发展

作为油气资源的重要补充,我国油页岩的开发和利用取得了重大成就。本文对吉林省在开发和综合利用油页岩产业方面进行了简要的评述。经过综合开发利用,可以实现油页岩"吃干榨尽",实现经济效益和生态效益双丰收。     

Assessing the technical and economic performance of building integrated photovoltaics and their value to the GCC society

This paper assesses the technical and economic performance of PV technology integrated into residential buildings in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. It highlights the value of PV electricity for the GCC society from the perspective of consumers, utilities and environment. Through a systematic modelling analysis it is shown that the efficiency of PV system drops by 4–6% due to high range of module temperature and also a change in power output due to high ambient temperatures. Consequently, the outputs of horizontal and vertical PV modules are found to be less than estimates based on standard test conditions. Economically, this study shows that building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are not viable in GCC countries and cannot compete with conventional electricity sources on a unit cost basis. From a society point of view, however, the integration of PV technology into buildings would have several benefits for the GCC countries, including: first, savings in capital cost due to central power plants and transmission and distribution processes; second, an increase in the exported oil and natural gas used for electricity generation; and third, a reduction in the CO₂ emissions from conventional power plants. When these considerations are taken into account then BIPV should become a feasible technology in GCC countries.     

Oil exploitation and the environmental Kuznets curve

This study refers to a panel estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for oil to determine the factors most affecting oil exploitation in 38 oil-producing countries during 1990–2000. Control variables such as oil reserves, oil price, population, political rights, and the Gini index were used to determine its contribution to the main EKC model. The empirical results fully support the existence of an EKC for oil exploitation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the proved oil reserves has a significant and positive role in oil production, but oil price and population do not significantly affect crude oil production. Also, increased freedoms and a better income distribution will reduce the rate of oil exploitation. Thus, policies aiming at enhancing democratic society and better income distribution would be more compatible with sustainability.     

Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil “for years to come”. Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes.     

Institutions and the supply of oil: A case study of Russia

In new institutional economics, the variance in institutions explains differences in cross-country output per capita. Institutions may also explain how the supply of oil is affected within oil-producing countries. For example in the early 1970s, as nominal oil prices increased from $3 per barrel to $11 per barrel, a number of OPEC oil producers changed the institutional environment by nationalizing their oil production and putting under government control all petroleum-related capital and infrastructure. This affected oil supplies. Similar institutional changes may be happening again now that oil prices are rising. In particular, the newly democratic Russia may be following the same path. The Russian government has already effectively taken over control of much of the oil production capacity in the country and is still heavily involved in natural gas production. In this paper, we will look at the Russian upstream oil industry as it changed from central planning to a market-oriented sector and is now swaying toward re-nationalization. Some of the laws and institutional transitions will be detailed in order to elucidate what has taken place.     

Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands

The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between real GDP and oil prices using time series data for the period 1970–2005. Our main finding is that an increase in oil has a positive, albeit inelastic, impact on real GDP, inconsistent with the bulk of the literature. We argue that this is not a surprising result for the Fiji Islands. Our central argument focuses on two aspects of the Fijian economy: (1) the fact that actual output in Fiji has been around 50 per cent less than potential output; thus, Fiji's actual output has not reached a threshold level at which oil prices can negatively impact output; and (2) a rise in oil prices filters through to value added, which in turn is reflected in a larger actual output.