The effect of long lead times for planning of energy efficiency and biorefinery technologies at a pulp mill

The pulp and paper industry has many promising opportunities in the biorefinery field. To reach this potential, investments are required in new, emerging technologies and systems solutions which cannot be quickly implemented. In this paper, an approach to model the necessarily long planning times for this kind of investments is presented. The methodology used is based on stochastic programming, and all investments are optimized under uncertain energy market conditions. The uncertain cost development of the emerging technologies is also considered. It is analyzed using scenario analysis where both the cost levels and the timing for market introduction are considered. The effect of long lead times is studied by assuming that no investments can be decided on now and implemented already today, and only investments planned for today can be implemented in, for example, five years. An example is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach. The example includes the possibility of future investment in lignin separation, and shows how the investment planning of industrial energy efficiency investments can be guided by using the proposed systematic approach. The example also illustrates the value of keeping flexibility in the investment planning.     

The California energy approach: From conventional to alternative energy sources

The paper outlines the work of a State Government Agency, the California Energy Commission, which is now completing its major analytical task—forecasting California's future energy demand five, ten and twenty years hence and formulating an optimal state strategy for energy production and conservation.The method used in earlier demand forecasts was simply to extrapolate the trend of past years. These forecasts, prepared mainly by the utilities, lead to alarmingly high figures.By contrast, the approach of the Commission was to study, in depth, the evolution of the demand of each category of end users. Supplemented by a realistic assessment of the impact of various conservation measures and by extensive discussions with different groups of concerned citizens, the Commission's approach produced much lower and quite manageable estimates of future energy demand.In devising an energy supply strategy, the Commission postulated a mix of conventional and alternative energy technologies of proven practicability and diverse lead times. Providing such latitude in the choice of energy options increases the flexibility of the state's strategy to cope with possible unforeseen developments.At this point, the Commission feels that the time is ripe to shift the emphasis of its work from the analysis to the implementation stage.     

Developing strategies for robust energy systems. II: Application to CO2 risk management

One of the most important determinants for the design of the future energy system is whether or not constraints on CO₂ emissions will be imposed. Here, this issue is treated as a decision under uncertainty. Three strategies have been considered: immediate action to adapt to a future emission constraint (Commitment), business as usual (No Hedging), and hedging (Hedging). In the case of hedging, preparations are made outside the energy system, but the energy system itself is allowed to develop according to baseline assumptions until the uncertainty has been resolved. The IEA-MARKAL model has been used to show how efficient and robust the three strategies are under different developments. The development of the Swedish energy system has been studied for two rates of economic growth in combination with three nuclear policies and two CO₂ policies. The value of preparations for meeting a possible restriction on CO₂ emissions, i.e., following either the Commitment or the Hedging strategy, is considerably higher when the energy demand increases rapidly. In the low growth case, the choice of strategy is largely dependent upon the decision maker's estimate of the likelihood of an emission cap. In the high growth case, this likelihood must be considered to be very small in order to choose the No Hedging strategy, even with reinvestments in nuclear capacity beyond 2010.     

Assessment of transport fuel taxation strategies through integration of road transport in an energy system model—the case of Sweden

Road transport is responsible for a large and growing share of CO₂ emissions in most countries. A number of new fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies and renewable transport fuels are possible alternatives to conventional options but their deployment relies strongly on different policy measures. Even though a future higher use of transport biofuels and electric vehicles is likely to increase the interaction between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system (heat, power, etc.), these systems are often analysed separately. In this study, a transport module is developed and integrated into the MARKAL_Nordic energy system model. The transport module describes a range of vehicle technologies and fuel options as well as different paths for conversion of primary energy resources into transport fuels. The integrated model is utilized to analyse the impact of transport fuel tax designs on future cost‐effective fuel and technology choices in the Swedish transportation sector, as well as the consequences of these choices on system costs and CO₂ emissions. The model, which is driven by cost‐minimization, is run to 2050 with various assumptions regarding transport fuel tax levels and tax schemes. The results stress the importance of fuel taxes to accelerate the introduction of fuel‐efficient vehicle technologies such as hybrids and plug‐in hybrids. Tax exemptions can make biofuels an economically favourable choice for vehicle users. However, due to limitations in biomass supply, a too strong policy‐focus on transport biofuels can lead to high system costs in relation to the CO₂ abatement achieved. The modelling performed indicates that the effects caused by linkages between the transportation sector and the stationary energy system can be significant and integrated approaches are thus highly relevant. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated waste management as a mean to promote renewable energy

Management of municipal solid waste is an efficient method to both increase resource efficiency (material and energy recovery instead of landfill disposal) and to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy sources (waste is renewable in itself to a large extent as it contains paper, wood, food waste etc.). The paper presents the general outline and results from a comprehensive system study of future waste management. In the study a multifunctional waste management system integrated with local energy systems for district heating and electricity, wastewater treatment, agriculture and vehicle fuel production is investigated with respect to environmental impact and financial economy. Different waste technologies as well as management strategies have been tested. The treatment is facilitated through advanced sorting, efficient treatment facilities and upgrading of output products. Tools used are the ORWARE model for the waste management system and the MARTES model for the district heating system. The results for potential global warming are used as an indicator for renewable energy. In all future scenarios and for all management strategies net savings of CO₂ is accomplished. Compared to a future reference the financial costs will be higher or lower depending on management strategy.     

Analysis of energy technology changes and associated costs

An integrated mathematical model constituting of interlinked submodels on technology costs, progress and market penetration has been developed. The model was applied to a few new energy technologies to investigate the economic boundary conditions for a full market breakthrough and corresponding market impact on a 50 years time scale. The model shows that public subsidies amounting to slightly over 220 billion € in total worldwide would be necessary over the next 30–40 years to bring wind and photovoltaics to a cost breakthrough in the market and to reach a 20 and 5% share of all electricity at t = 50 years, respectively. These up‐front learning investments would be partly amortized toward the end of the interval as the new technologies become cost competitive but could be fully paid off earlier if CO₂ emission trading schemes emerge even with modest CO₂ price levels. The findings are sensitive to changes in the parameter assumptions used. For example, a 2% uncertainty in the main parameters of the model could lead to a spread of tens of per cents in the future energy impact and subsidy needs, or when related to the above subsidy estimate, 155–325 billion €. This underlines the overall uncertainty in predicting future impacts and resource needs for new energy technologies. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methodologies for representing the road transport sector in energy system models

Energy system models are often used to assess the potential role of hydrogen and electric powertrains for reducing transport CO₂ emissions in the future. In this paper, we review how different energy system models have represented both vehicles and fuel infrastructure in the past and we provide guidelines for their representation in the future. In particular, we identify three key modelling decisions: the degree of car market segmentation, the imposition of market share constraints and the use of lumpy investments to represent infrastructure. We examine each of these decisions in a case study using the UK MARKAL model. While disaggregating the car market principally affects only the transition rate to the optimum mix of technologies, market share constraints can greatly change the optimum mix so should be chosen carefully. In contrast, modelling infrastructure using lumpy investments has little impact on the model results. We identify the development of new methodologies to represent the impact of behavioural change on transport demand as a key challenge for improving energy system models in the future.     

Electricity Production Using Solar Energy

Abstract

In this study, a solar-powered development project is used to identify whether it is possible to utilize solar technologies in the electricity production sector. Electricity production from solar energy has been found to be a promising method in the future. Concentrated solar energy can be converted to chemical energy via high-temperature endothermic reactions. Coal and biomass can be pyrolyzed or gasified by using concentrated solar radiation for generating power. Conventional energy will not be enough to meet the continuously increasing need for energy in the future. In this case, renewable energy sources will become important. Solar energy is an increasing need for energy in the future. Solar energy is a very important energy source because of its advantages. Instead of a compressor system, which uses electricity, an absorption cooling system, using renewable energy and kinds of waste heat energy, may be used for cooling.     

A methodology for the electrical energy system planning of Tamil Nadu state (India)

In this paper, an energy planning optimisation procedure of a selected territory is illustrated and applied using an energy flow optimisation model. The developed approach takes into account various electricity generating options to meet the energy needs of various demand sectors. Energy saving techniques and hybrid technologies are considered and various scenarios are developed by assessing the contribution of renewable energy technologies over the planning period. The procedure aims to reduce the total actualised cost of energy generation over selected time horizon and predicts the additional installations required along with the existing facilities to meet the energy demand. At the same time the role of renewable energy technologies and of energy saving measures is evaluated by imposing suitable constraints on CO₂ emissions and primary energy sources exploitation. The procedure is applied to the territory of Tamil Nadu state (India) by considering different energy planning scenarios.     

Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO₂ emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments.     

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO₂ emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005–2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity.     

H2 Optimization and Fuel Cells Application on Electrical Distribution System and Its Commercial Viability in Australia

Conventional energy technologies are not environmentally friendly, are not renewable, and also the cost of using fossil and nuclear fuels will go higher and higher (anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers will be paying three times their current bill 5 years from now). Therefore, renewable energy sources will play important roles in electricity generation. This paper highlights the advantages of renewable technologies, like future prospects for the poor population, being environmentally friendly, and also available in abundance. This paper points outs the factors seeking hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology to eradicate environmental disasters. This paper is significant as it looks into optimal utilization of renewable energy sources with major emphasis on H₂ optimization and fuel cells application utilizing cogeneration technology. This paper discusses the multiple hydrogen production pathways from different sources, including renewable and nonrenewable sources, H₂ safety, and also barriers to use of hydrogen energy. This paper recommends different types of quantitative and qualitative methods for optimal energy planning, and different types of fuel cells are also discussed. This paper explains a hybrid system inclusive of renewable energy, with its types and benefits. Finally, this paper concludes that Australia could switch from conventional fossil fuel technology to hybrid energy inclusive of renewable energy.     

Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

Electricity generation is an important source of total CO₂ emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10–20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO₂-intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation.     

The future choice of technologies and co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in Bangladesh power sector

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400 PJ to 4898 PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Conversion of individual natural gas to district heating: Geographical studies of supply costs and consequences for the Danish energy system

Replacing individual natural gas heating with district heating based to increasing shares of renewable energy sources may further reduce CO₂-emissions in the Danish Building mass, while increasing flexibility of the energy system to accommodate significantly larger amounts of variable renewable energy production. The present paper describes a geographical study of the potential to expand district heating into areas supplied with natural gas. The study uses a highly detailed spatial database of the built environment, its current and potential future energy demand, its supply technologies and its location relative to energy infrastructure. First, using a spatially explicit economic model, the study calculates the potentials and costs of connection to expanded district heating networks by supply technology. Then a comprehensive energy systems analysis is carried out to model how the new district heat can be supplied from an energy system with higher shares of renewable energy. It can be concluded on the basis of these analyses that the methods used proved highly useful to address issues of geographically dependent energy supply; however the spatio-economic model still is rather crude. The analyses suggest to expand district heating from present 46% to somewhere in between 50% and 70%. The most attractive potential is located around towns and cities. The study also suggests that CO₂-emissions, fuel consumption and socio-economic costs can be reduced by expanding district heating, while at the same time investing in energy savings in the building mass as well as increased district heating network efficiency.     

Global and regional potential for bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage

Among technological options to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, biomass energy with carbon capture and storage technology (BECCS) is gaining increasing attention. This alternative offers a unique opportunity for a net removal of atmospheric CO₂ while fulfilling energy needs. Empirical studies using bottom-up energy models show that BECCS has an important role to play in the future energy mix. Most of these studies focus on global BECCS potential, whereas it is of interest to understand where this mitigation option will be deployed. This key issue will strongly depend on regions’ biomass resources and possession of storage sites. The aim of this study is to assess the global and regional potential of BECCS up to 2050 in power generation. This analysis is conducted using the multiregional TIAM-FR optimization model. The climate policy scenarios investigated lead to a considerable expansion of renewable energy and CCS and BECCS technologies in the power sector. CCS from fossil fuel is mainly deployed in fast developing countries (India and China) and BECCS is highly distributed in developing countries, even though biomass resources are widely available in all regions.     

Elevated temperature pressure swing adsorption using LaNi4.3Al0.7 for efficient hydrogen separation

The application of LaNi₅ based alloys as adsorbent for hydrogen separation and purification has been proposed for a long time. However, the actual utilization is limited by the poor CO tolerance of the alloys at atmospheric temperature. In this study, an elevated temperature vacuum pressure swing adsorption (ET-VPSA) method for H₂ separation using hydrogen storage material LaNi_4.3Al_0.7 is proposed and demonstrated to be energy efficient. Elevating the working temperature results in improved CO tolerance of LaNi_4.3Al_0.7, making it possible for the alloy to be used in more situations. An ET-VPSA model was built to explore the correlations between product H₂ purity, recovery rate, feed gas composition, cycle duration and counter-current blow down (CD) pressure. The results show that H₂ recovery rate of ET-VPSA reaches 95% while it is usually 85% or lower for regular pressure swing adsorption (PSA). The energy efficiency of these two separation methods is evaluated by methanol reforming-proton exchange membrane fuel cell system models which contain PSA or ET-VPSA as H₂ purification unit. A larger net power generation amount indicates less energy loss during H₂ purification process. Although the vacuum pump will lead to extra energy consumption, benefiting from higher H₂ recovery rate, the net efficiency of the system with ET-VPSA is 0.475, still higher than that with PSA (0.448).     

Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?

Though the development of renewable energy is rapid, innovation in renewable energy technologies is relatively weak due to the late commencement of renewable energy in China. In addition, renewable energy is mainly introduced into the supply mix of electricity generation, which increases the costs of electricity generation. Higher electricity price will make renewable energy more competitive and call forth renewable energy technological innovation. Based on FMOLS and DOLS models, as well as PMG model, this paper investigates the induced long and short run effects of electricity price, funding support, and economic growth on innovation in renewable energy technologies at the provincial level in China during the period 2006–2016. The Conclusions drawn were: (1) R&D expenditure and economic growth have positive impacts on innovation in renewable energy technologies in the long and short run; (2) Electricity price only has a long run effect on patenting in renewable energy technologies; (3) In the long run, a 1% increase in electricity price can lead to a 0.7825%–1.0952% increase in the patent counts of renewable energy technologies; (4) Electricity pricing system in China does not play any role in driving renewable energy technological innovation in the short run.