Key Factors in Bid Reasoning Model

The bidding decision is a complex problem affected by numerous factors. The current study collected a list of determining factors from the results of past research and opinions of six experienced practitioners in competitive bidding. Based on these factors, a bid reasoning model was established to go deeply into the bid decision process. Differing from other earlier work, this model-oriented study focuses on the effects of the determining factors on four reasoning subgoals: competition, risk, company's position in bidding, and need for work. Their different contributions to each reasoning subgoal were reviewed under three main construction procurement methods, namely, unit rate contract, lump sum contract, and design∕build contract. The Analytic Hierarchy Process technique was applied in this study. A survey questionnaire was developed with four hierarchies being formulated respectively for the four reasoning subgoals. The survey was conducted in two steps, the pilot survey among the six experienced practitioners and the subsequent one among 153 top contractors in Singapore. From this survey, a set of top key factors and their relative importance weights were identified. This result together with the bid reasoning model can serve as the framework for the further development of the bid decision support system.     

Evaluating Qualification-Based Selection System: A Simulation Approach

Abnormally low bids and contractors’ opportunistic bidding behavior are frequently observed in the competitive bidding system. Many research findings have pointed out that price competition itself is not sufficient to guarantee the use of economical and good quality products. The qualification-based selection (QBS) system has been proposed as a potential solution to this problem. However, due to lack of supporting data, most previous studies could only assess its effectiveness based on a single case experience and subjective opinions from questionnaire surveys. Few studies have analyzed contractors’ pricing behavior under the QBS system and the effects of the QBS system on market competition. This paper develops a simulation model to analyze contractors’ pricing behavior and dynamic competition process under the QBS system. The research results suggest that although the QBS system has potential to encourage contractors to place more emphasis on project quality, once the price is included as one of the selection criteria, abnormally low bids could still be problematic. The success of the QBS system is highly dependent on the linkage between contractors’ past performance and the evaluation of contractors’ qualifications. Only when contractors’ past performance is carefully and constantly examined and closely reflected in the bid evaluation can the contractors’ opportunistic bidding behavior be reduced and quality products be ensured.     

Using Group Decision Support System to Support Value Management Workshops

A group decision support system (GDSS) is an interactive computer-based information system that combines the capabilities of communication technologies, database technologies, computer technologies, and decision technologies to support the identification, analysis, formulation, evaluation, and solution of semistructured or unstructured problems by a group in a user-friendly computing environment. As there is a strong demand for improvements to the practice of value management (VM), research has been conducted to design a GDSS prototype system, named the interactive value management system (IVMS), to explore its potential application in VM workshops and to investigate the effect of the application. The paper begins with an introduction to the problems of implementing VM in the Hong Kong construction industry and then proceeds to an illustration of the features of the proposed system, which has been developed in the research. Two validation studies designed to test the support of the proposed system are described and the results discussed. Findings from this research indicate that IVMS is supportive in overcoming the problems and difficulties in VM workshops.     

建筑工程项目招投标中的相关问题与解决对策

招投标制度作为我国建筑业管理体制改革的突破口和建筑产品交易方式的改革,是在政府的强制下建立起来的。从1981年开始,经历试点、推行和逐步完善三个阶段,历经近30年的风风雨雨,已经成为规范建筑市场的重要制度和主要交易方式。北满特钢招标管理机构成立于1988年,在冶金企业招标工作中走在前列。由于新体制的功能尚未完善,致使建筑市场交易成本过高,交易秩序出现混乱,影响了招标投标制度的效率。就此对招投标中易出现的问题作出如下分析,从而找出解决问题的对策。     

冶金建设工程招投标中存在问题及解决措施

改革开放以后,我国开始引入建筑工程招投标制度,招标投标制度是比较成熟而且科学合理的工程承包发包方式,但是它在具体操作中也存在着不少问题,文章通过分析我国冶金建设工程招标投标中存在的问题,对今后工程建设项目招投标的改进措施及对策进行了初步的探讨。     

Contractor’s Opportunistic Bidding Behavior and Equilibrium Price Level in the Construction Market

The competitive bidding system has been to blame for abnormally low bids, which are considered as one of the main causes of poor project quality. Previous studies have regarded the pricing of bidders as an optimum decision based on contractor’s cost and market competition level. However, the sell to produce characteristic of construction projects may induce contractors to offer a low bid and then make up the amount initially sacrificed from beyond-contractual reward (BCR) gained through cutting corners and claims. System dynamics was adopted in this study to develop a contractor’s pricing model with consideration of the dimensions of cost, market competition, and BCR. The model was then examined by statistical analysis of data collected from 44 highway projects in Taiwan. It was found that the equilibrium market price is significantly associated with BCR, which is assumed to be determined by the strictness of the owner’s construction management, including both soundness of contract and tightness in construction supervision. Research results suggest that contractors divide the market into different segments according to the owner’s strictness of construction management and the equilibrium price level of each market segment varies. The price level for projects with a strict owner is remarkably higher than for those with relatively less strict owners. Improvement in the construction management system of projects is crucial to lower the possibility that contractors gain BCR and do opportunistic bidding, and to further enhance project quality.     

Contractors’ Competition Strategies in Bidding: Hong Kong Study

Selecting an appropriate competition strategy in bidding is the ambition of most contractors. The multiple requirements of clients encourage contractors to consider other strategies to deliver additional benefits besides offering a low-price bid. Offering low bids will reduce contractors’ profits and potentially make development less attractive. Contractors need to understand their specific resources that generate competitive advantage and accordingly develop strategies to win contracts. This paper reports the findings from a recent survey on competition strategies in the Hong Kong construction industry. Thirteen typical bidding strategies, their used frequency in bidding, and their effectiveness for winning contracts of different types and between different groups of contractors are studied. The analysis of findings is explored to provide local contractors and clients with new insights into competition strategies in bidding.     

Analysis of Masonry Panel under Biaxial Bending Using ANNs and CBR

In this paper the capability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in solving complex nonlinear problems is utilized for the analysis of masonry panels under biaxial bending. A network, trained using a set of data, which is representative of the problem domain, is shown to be successful in solving new problems with reasonable accuracy. The experimental results obtained from the testing of panels are analyzed using the existing theories, and the method that gives good correlation between the theoretical prediction and the experimental result is recommended for other panels of similar properties and boundary conditions. An artificial intelligence based technology, the case-based reasoning (CBR), has been used to solve new problems by adapting solutions to similar problems solved in the past, which are stored in the case library. In this paper a hybrid system is described that utilizes the capabilities of both ANNs and CBR. CBR is used to identify a theoretical method that is most suitable for the present problem, whereas ANNs are used to arrive at a solution with great savings in computational time for the design of masonry panels subjected to biaxial bending.     

Construction Planning Method Using Case-Based Reasoning (CONPLA-CBR)

During the construction process, there occur many unexpected events that hinder timely completion of a project. One plausible solution in formulating a robust plan against such uncertainties is to provide the proper construction duration by utilizing as-built schedules in which past events are stored for similar future projects. Many schedulers thus develop schedules based on similar past schedules, taking into consideration the dynamic construction environment. As a result, construction schedulers normally refer to similar past schedules for their current projects. Few studies on the reuse of past schedules using case-based reasoning (CBR) have been conducted, and those that are available are limited to specific areas of construction such as apartment-building construction and boiler manufacturing. This research has an emphasis on developing a CBR-based general planning tool with higher applicability, which consists of generic attributes with the capability to be customized to the given project. To address this issue, construction planning by CBR (CONPLA-CBR) is presented as a generic planning tool for various types of construction projects. CONPLA-CBR, with the dynamic case approach and construction schedule data mart, also developed in this research, helps schedulers to utilize past schedules. CONPLA-CBR was not only verified to be of practical utility by experts, but also, because it uses past cases to which the successor relationships pertain, it does not require users to input all relationships. Whereas the proposed CONPLA-CBR generates master schedules at the preconstruction stage, its concept can also be applied to the construction stages to generate more detailed, for example, weekly or monthly, schedules. Thereby, CONPLA-CBR would enhance construction performance through the increased application of CBR in construction.     

Disease diagnosis validation in TROPIX using CBR

TROPIX is a practical application project initially designed to help improve health care delivery in the rural/semi urban clinics and public hospitals in Nigeria due largely to limited laboratory facilities, medical doctors, and expertise. This paper is devoted to the use of case-based reasoning (CBR) paradigm in concert with statistical association-based reasoning (ABR) for disease diagnosis, validation and therapy selection components of the research. Essentially, tentative disease diagnosis arrived at by some classification method using similarity and dissimilarity aggregate functions, the matched vector functions (MVF), aided by the application of evidence ratio factors (ERF) for tied match cases is passed to the CBR model for validation by reusing past similar cases. The design and organization of the case-library using singular value decomposition (SVD) technique on the disease-attribute decision matrix to generate primary/secondary storage key clusters, as well as the use of domain-specific case-object properties that help to build a good case-base are described in some detail. The paper presents a disease case validation algorithm for appropriate data filtering and therapy selection enhancement from the new case-base.     

我国建筑工程招标投标发展特点及管理措施

建筑工程运用招标投标,是经济发展的需要。我国建筑工程招标投标经过几十年的发展,形成了有自身特点的体系,文章通过发展过程,分析了存在的问题,提出了具体的解决措施。     

MEDUSA: a fuzzy expert system for medical diagnosis of acute abdominal pain

Even today, the diagnosis of acute abdominal pain represents a serious clinical problem. The medical knowledge in this field is characterized by uncertainty, imprecision and vagueness. This situation lends itself especially to be solved by the application of fuzzy logic. A fuzzy logic-based expert system for diagnostic decision support is presented (MEDUSA). The representation and application of uncertain and imprecise knowledge is realized by fuzzy sets and fuzzy relations. The hybrid concept of the system enables the integration of rule-based, heuristic and case-based reasoning on the basis of imprecise information. The central idea of the integration is to use case-based reasoning for the management of special cases, and rule-based reasoning for the representation of normal cases. The heuristic principle is ideally suited for making uncertain, hypothetical inferences on the basis of fuzzy data and fuzzy relations.     

Automated reasoning system in histopathologic diagnosis and prognosis of prostate cancer and its precursors

OBJECTIVE: This article presents the rationale and options offered to diagnostic and prognostic decision support systems for prostate pathology by automated reasoning capabilities. METHODS: The symbolic information used in diagnostic decision-making is systematically ordered, compared, numerically assessed in its probability, and combined such that a conclusion can be drawn. The framework for the processing of such symbolic information may be an expert system, an inference network or a case-based reasoning system. Automated reasoning is implemented by the use of a rule base and information flow control modules. RESULTS: Automated reasoning allows decision support systems to follow highly adaptive decision sequences, capable of handling contradictory evidence, exceptions in diagnostic clue expression, and nonmonotonic decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Automated reasoning capability in diagnostic and prognostic decision support systems allows highly flexible decision development, very close to human decision procedures.     

The two stage case-based reasoning technology research on the basis of the expert decision

In some domain expert’s decision-making is intelligent output by comprehensive analysis and reasoning for the numerous decision-making factors,constraints and the goal in their domain,it is the concentrated expression of domain knowledge.Be aimed at field knowledge induction;sum up the exploration with systematization method,the two stages case-based reasoning(CBR) technology on the basis of the expert decision cased is present.The main idea,according to the characteristic of problem,analysis and decision process of field expert is carried out case-reasoning by two steps,and the field knowledge can be classified,induction and accumulated from different angles by multi case libraries.This technology includes two aspects,first,through two state case-based reasoning mechanisms to achieve area of decision-making process simulation;second,the CBR service in two more cases of library design process.First,two stage case-based reasoning mechanism,the first stage case-based reasoning to analyze the main level,clear nature of the problem,type,degree and character as the main content;the second stage case reasoning takes first order case reasoning result as basis then,the case reasoning,gives to making policy holding out being that purpose is in progress to out a decision-making suggestion once again.Secondly,in many cases the design of the library,to serve two-stage case-based reasoning process,the design of the four case libraries:First, property type case library,is a static case base can be modified,the effect is to performance differences between actual case and plan case of the qualitative distinction,indicate difference type attribute;Second, hierarchic quantization case library,is a static case base can be modified,the effect is to performance differences between actual case and plan case the quantitative distinction between the scope,indicate degree, size that the type issues in some difference etc.Three are that decision-making supports case library,is a static case base can be modified,the effect is similar enumeration all possible decision-makings content, indicate the decision-making that field expert possibility carries out;Four are decision match case library,is a self-study and dynamic case library,the effect is the library recording history decision-making case,is used to gain the decision-making scheme specifically for current reality achievement case is similar,to provide the support making policy,to learn composing in reply the case accumulating the new decision-making at the same time.The method is based on real business needs for research and development obtained after the conclusion,the paper shows through examples of the technology industry has a good adaptability,practicality and effectiveness.     

谈投标报价策略和技巧

建筑企业参加投标竞争,目的在于得到对自己最有利的施工合同,从而获得尽可能多的盈利.为此,做出投标决策以后,必须仔细研究投标报价策略,并借助投标报价技巧,以达到既能中标又能赢利的目的.     

A psychiatric diagnostic system integrating probabilistic and categorical reasoning

We describe a diagnostic support system for clinical psychiatry and its evaluation results. The system has two inter-related components: a rule-based reasoning part associated with uncertainty, and a deterministic part, that uses heuristics to perform categorical reasoning. The system includes the 30 groups of psychiatric diagnoses which are classified under the categories 290 to 319 of the DSM-III-R and the ICD-9. There are, in fact, 1508 rules relating 208 clinical findings with 257 diagnoses. The reasoning strategy is based on selecting and differentiating diagnostic categories in a hierarchical classification tree. The system is intended to be used for education of medical students, and to help non-specialist clinicians, residents in psychiatry, or experts with few years of experience in decision making. We tested the diagnostic performance of the system using case reports extracted from a specialized journal. In 52.8% of the cases, the correct diagnosis was ranked as the first hypothesis using only the rule-based part. In combination with the deterministic strategy, the correct diagnosis could be made for 73.6% of the analyzed cases.     

Expert testimony, legal reasoning, and justice. The case for adopting a data-based standard of care in allegations of medical negligence in the NICU

Sunstein has written, "First, and most obviously, judgments about specific cases must be made consistent with one another. A requirement of coherence, or principled consistency, is a hallmark of analogic reasoning (as it is of reasoning of almost all sorts)." In cases of alleged medical negligence, our current system of malpractice litigation supports the possibility that inaccurate anecdotal testimony by expert witnesses may be credited equally or even preferred to more accurate testimony based on empiric data. This condition lends itself to inconsistent outcomes that violate basic principles of justice. In our view, the standard of medical care ought not be described by the idiosyncratic postulation of single behavior (analogous to promulgating the equation of a single line on a Cartesian plane). Rather, the standard of medical care is best viewed as a distribution of behaviors (family of lines) that can be empirically determined to account for most practice decisions in comparable cases. The recent Daubert formulation of admissibility of expert testimony can be interpreted as providing judicial support for a hierarchy of expert testimony in cases of alleged medical negligence. On this view, testable comparisons of the behavior in question against reliably documented distributions of standard medical behavior in similar circumstances rank higher than untestable comparisons using unreliable anecdotal recollections of individual expert's undocumented experience. We believe that widespread adoption by the medical community of the principle that the value of expert testimony describing the standard of medical care increases in direct proportion to its congruence with a data-based determination of the distribution of skill and care ordinarily provided in similar circumstances would significantly reduce the potential for injustice visited on plaintiff and defendant alike.     

Effects of Contractors’ Risk Attitude on Competition in Construction

Competitive bidding is the major mechanism of competition. Bidding is risky because the actual cost of the job is unknown. Thus, the bid should be high enough to make a profit but low enough to win the bidding. The result of competition depends on the competitor’s risk-taking behaviors, which are affected by the organization’s risk attitudes. A contractor’s risk-taking is an essential element of the construction business. The current study explores the domain of competition at the aggregate market level. An evolutionary simulation model was developed to investigate the effects of risk attitude on a contractor’s success and on the market structure. The analysis accounts for different risk-taking behaviors in competition, different performances by contractors, corresponding organizational changes, and aggregate patterns in the form of the market structure. The study finds that risk attitude is a competitive characteristic of contractors. The results provide new insight on competition in the market place, and explanations are given for a contractor’s competitive success.     

Does the Stepladder Technique improve group decision making? A series of failed replications.

Past research has demonstrated the effectiveness of a structured group decision-making technique, termed the Stepladder Technique, in improving group decisions. The purpose of the present series of studies was to replicate and extend this research. Five studies (three using different tasks than previous studies and two using the same task) compared the decision quality of groups using the self-paced Stepladder Technique to unstructured groups. In all studies, stepladder groups failed to perform better than unstructured groups. This failure to replicate and extend past research suggests that there are definite boundaries, such as the sample or the experimenter, which may limit the overall effectiveness of the Stepladder Technique. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)