Measuring Progress on Climate Change Adaptation Policy by Dutch Water Boards

The Netherlands is particularly vulnerable for the impacts of climate change on the water system. Regional water authorities, or water boards, are given an important role to design and implement specific adaptation policies and measures to manage these impacts. From the early 2000s onwards water boards are starting to adapt to climate change impacts, yet no systematic assessments exist to assess whether or not progress is being made and what explains similarities and differences across water boards. This paper aims to address these critical questions by analyzing the progress of all Dutch water boards for the period 2005–2016. We systematically collected and analyzed three consecutive water management plans for all 23 water boards in the Netherlands. We use content analysis methods to analyze progress by looking into their vulnerability and three levels of adaptation: recognition, groundwork and adaptation action. The results show that over time the number of reported climate change adaptation initiatives by the water boards is increasing, but most climate change adaptation is still at the recognition or groundwork level. Our findings reveal a diversity of efforts to adapt to climate change among Dutch water boards. We conclude that while (inter)national water and climate change adaptation policies have called for more adaptation action at regional levels, the unequal progress across the Netherlands suggests that existing ‘soft’ policy measures to push for adaptation might not be sufficient to ensure progress on adaptation across all water boards.     

On the Barriers to Adaption to Less Water under Climate Change: Policy Choices in Mediterranean Countries

Barriers and constraints to adapting water resources management to climate change in the Mediterranean region are analysed in this paper. First, we analysed the risks to the water resources sector derived from climate change. We then identified the main objective of water adaptation measures: ensuring there is enough water for food, for people, and for ecosystems. This implies visions about availability - being sufficient water -, accessibility - both physical and economic access -, and adequacy - being safe for ecosystems and human consumption. A portfolio of local and collective actions to adapt water management for agriculture to climate change in Mediterranean countries is presented. Adaptation strategies included improved efficiency, optimisation of governance, enhancement of participation, development of risk-based choices, and economic instruments. Finally, the paper categorised the constraints to implement the measures, give specific examples about these issues and also quantify their impact. When considering constraints and opportunities to implement these water management practices, any environmental policy regulating their adoption should be based on recommending the use of extension and training to local actors on the application of the practices.     

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.     

Economic and Social Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Egypt

Literature is em erging on the adaptation of water resource systems to climate change (Stakhiv, 1995; Strzepek & Sm ith, 1995). These adaptations are generally discussed at either the sectoral or at the micro-economic level. However, little has been said about the macro-economic adaptation to shifts in water resources due to climate change. This lack of discussion is primarily due to the fact that very few countries have been able to make a com prehensive national assessment of climate change im pacts on water resources at the same scale as a macro-economic modelling analysis. W here macro-economic m odelling has been done, the water resource systems are highly regional and difficult to aggregate to a single national im pact. W here homogenous water resources systems exist, m acro-econom ic impact modelling has not incorporated water resources. This paper examines the macro-economic adaptations to climate change im pacts on national water resources. Because of the problems listed above, a 'laboratory' country was chosen. Egypt has a single water resource- the Nile- and a substantial portion of Egypt's economic activity is related to this river. Changes in Nile discharges can be directly linked to macro-economic accoun ts, yet obviously more strongly linked to the agricultural sector. For this reason, a macro-economic m odel has been used which contains a disaggregated agricultural sector and a highly aggregated non-agricultural sector. A discussion of technical adaptations to climate change-induced reductions in Nile flows is presented. W hile these technical adaptations of the N ile are important, the macro-economic impacts of decreases or increases in Nile River discharge are shown to be minor compared with fu ture socioeconomic development and domestic policy strategies. The paper concludes with a discussion of anticipatory econom ic and policy adaptations that appear to be more significant than technical adaptations for Egypt.     

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.     

Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine

Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with ‘assess-risk-of-policy’ approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers’ needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges.     

Climate Change Adaptation Indicators to Assess Wastewater Management and Reuse Options in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Climate change adaptation indicators have played a critical role in the increased understanding of potential climate change impacts. In this research, 6 climate change adaptation indicators were identified for Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam: (1) Rice production from wastewater during winter-spring crop; (2) % of irrigation water demand satisfied by treated wastewater; (3) % of nutrient demand satisfied by treated wastewater; (4) % remaining flow downstream of Can Tho in the Hau River; (5) environmental benefits; and (6) total investment cost for wastewater treatment. These indices were selected to assess various options/strategies for wastewater management and reuse in Can Tho City as a means to improve the City’s resilience to climate change. From an environmental perspective, this study shows the benefits for Can Tho City to set up a strategy to treat and reuse wastewater from catfish farming as the priority among four assessed scenarios with different climate change impact factors. It is concluded that adaptation can be assessed by the indicators because they can define whether adaptation policies and measures are implemented and whether vulnerability is reduced through effective actions.     

Some rationales for risk sharing and financing adaptation.

Current climate variability and anticipated climate change challenge our water systems and our financial resources. The sharing of economic losses due to weather related hazards and the sharing of costs that result from protecting lives and property take place in different forms, but are currently insufficient. In this paper we discuss three different rationales for financing disaster losses through public and private arrangements, as well as options for financing adaptation, with a special focus on water management. We propose that financial arrangements for risk sharing and climate change adaptation should be reconsidered, in a more structured approach, to be able to deal with both disaster losses and the costs that arise because of climate change adaptation, e.g. for water management, in both developing and developed countries.     

Icelandic experience with water safety plans

The aim of this study was to investigate accumulated experience with water safety plans in one of the first countries to adopt systematic preventive management for drinking-water safety. Water utilities in Iceland have had a legal obligation since 1995 to implement a systematic preventive approach to secure safety of drinking water and protect public health. The water utilities responded by implementing either an adapted HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points) model for larger water utilities or a simpler five step model for smaller water utilities. The research was carried out at 16 water utilities that serve about two-thirds of the population of Iceland. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used with the aim of analysing if and what benefits water safety plans bring for water utilities and what is needed for successful implementation and operation of such systems. The results of the study show that numerous benefits and even the process of going through the implementing process were considered to be of advantage and change the attitude of the staff and the utility culture. Some obstacles and shortcomings came to light, such as lack of documentation and lack of regular internal and external audit. There was little communication with the public, although some mentioned that good public relations are important to succeed with water safety plans. Many important elements of success were revealed of which intensive training of staff and participation of staff in the whole process are deemed the most important. It is also important to have simple and well-structured guidelines, and good cooperation with the health authorities.     

Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia

A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly.     

Climate change impacts on natural resources and communities: A geospatial approach for management

Climate change causes environmental depletion, with threats to the global economy. The health and productivity of ecosystems underpin agriculture, with stable ecosystems being the foundation for economic livelihoods and food security. This study proposes adaptation measures, using geospatial technology, for conserving natural resources and improving livelihoods of the local community from climate change scenarios. Planning, policy decisions and resultant programmes are required for natural resource management, which must be based on broad citizen participation and the engagement of rural communities. The suggested adaptation measures will help the planning system to regulate development of natural resources and the socio‐economic environment. The major natural resources in the environment are land and water, both of which can be severely degraded by human interventions, as well as climate change. Various thematic maps are prepared with the use of geospatial technology, in order to be helpful for site‐suitability analysis directed to the preparation of land and water management action plans for socio‐economic development. The study area is a micro‐watershed of the catchment of Ansupa Lake in the Cuttack District of Odisha, India. To reduce climate change impacts on natural resources and economic livelihoods, some adaptation measures have been proposed (e.g., 68.9 ha for afforestation.; 13.94 ha for gap plantations and agro‐horticulture; 389.62 ha for farm ponds and renovation of existing ponds for pisciculture and duckery activities, etc.; 11.33 ha for land management, along with five bore wells, eight dug wells, 51 LBS/check dams, and four WHSs, etc., for water management for sustainable use).     

Managing Adaptation of Urban Water Systems in a Changing Climate

Current evidence is that climate change is occurring, it is largely manmade and it will have significant implications for human civilisation. Australia is particularly vulnerable to the anticipated effects of climate change, creating major challenges for water resource management and water supply security. Climate change adaptation offers a means by which we can reduce our exposure to future climate change risks, whilst at the same time exploiting any potential benefits that may arise from climatic changes. This review outlines the current major climate change adaptation challenges facing the water supply industry at large, with a particular focus on these challenges in an Australian context. It also aims to highlight the critical knowledge gaps and strategies required to assist in the formulation of adaptation responses to the range of potential impacts on water infrastructure and future water security. A diverse range of management and assessment techniques are used by relevant professions in industry. Here, an adaptive management approach is presented highlighting the important information required for robust assessment.     

Impact of Changes in Groundwater Extractions and Climate Change on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in a Complex Hydrogeological Setting

Climate change and other future developments can influence the availability of groundwater resources for drinking water. The uncertainty of the projected impact is a challenge given the urgency to decide on adaptation measures to secure the drinking water supply. Improved understanding on how climate change affects the groundwater system is necessary to develop adaptation strategies. AZURE is used, a detailed, well-calibrated hydrological model to study the projected impact of climate change scenarios on the large Veluwe aquifer in the Netherlands. The Veluwe area is an important source of drinking water. However, some existing groundwater extractions in the area affect nearby groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Redistribution of the licensed extraction volumes of these sites is considered to reduce the impact on these ecosystems. The projected impact of climate change and redistribution to groundwater levels is studied. The research shows that in a slowly responding large aquifer the projected climate change may cause rising groundwater levels despite the projected increase in summer dryness. The results indicate that this impact may exceed the impact of redistribution of extraction volumes. In addition, it is shown that the combined effect strongly depends on local conditions, thus highlighting the need for high-resolution modelling.     

Structural and Non-Structural Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for the Péribonka Water Resource System

This paper discusses the possibility for a privately managed hydro-power system to adapt to a projected increase in water flow in their central-Québec watersheds by adding power generation potential. Runoffs simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model were fed into a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) routine to generate reservoir operating rules. These rules were optimized for maximum power generation under maximal and minimal reservoir level constraints. With these optimized rules, a power generation simulator was used to predict the amount of generated hydropower. The same steps, excluding calibration, were performed on 60 climate projections (from 23 general circulation models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios) for future horizons 2036–2065 and 2071–2100. Reservoir operation rules were optimized for every climate change projection for the 3 power plants in the system. From these simulations, it was possible to determine hydropower numbers for both horizons. The same steps were performed under a modified system in which an additional turbine was added to each power plant. Results show that both the non-structural (optimizing reservoir rules) and structural (adding turbines) adaptation measures allow for increased power production, but that adapting operating rules is sufficient to reap the most of the benefits of increased water availability.     

Framing climate change and spatial planning: how risk communication can be improved.

Taking the role of frames into account may significantly add to the tools that have been developed for communication and learning on complex risks and benefits. As part of a larger multidisciplinary study into climate-related forms of sense-making this paper explores which frames are used by the citizens of Western European countries and, in particular, the Netherlands. Three recent multi-national public opinion surveys were analysed to examine beliefs about climate change in the context of beliefs about energy technology and concerns about other environmental issues, such as natural disasters. It appeared that many citizens had only vague ideas about the energy situation and that these do not constitute an unequivocal frame for climate issues. In contrast, the results suggest that the long-lasting rainfall and severe floods in Central Europe have had a significant impact. Climate change was often framed in a way that articulates its associations with rain- and river-based problems. This result is extremely important for risk communication, because especially in the Netherlands with its vulnerable coastal zones climate change may produce many more consequences than rain- and river-based problems only.     

英国气候变化风险评估

英国政府目前正在着手对因气候变化造成的风险进行全面评估,并将制订适应气候变化的计划,以便为应对气候变化提供明确的指导,提高各行业适应气候变化的能力。以水的供需平衡为例,简要阐述了风险评估的过程与结果。结果表明,未来需水量会随温度的上升而增加。因此,有必要采取节约用水和提高用水效率等措施。     

Managing the risks from the water-related impacts of extreme weather and uncertain climate change on inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand

ABSTRACT

Climate change will have significant impacts on inland aquaculture. This article assesses the robustness of a set of potential adaptation strategies for Northern Thailand using a rule-based assessment model to synthesize information from secondary sources, fish farmers, officials and experts. The net benefits of different strategy types vary substantially with water demand and fish demand, as well as future climate. No-regret and low-regret strategies are worthwhile under a broad range of conditions, but may not be sufficient to maintain profitability as the negative impacts of climate change unfold. The main implication is that adaptation pathways must be flexible.     

Towards Adaptation of Water Resource Systems to Climatic and Socio-Economic Change

Climate change is viewed as the major threat to the security of water supplies in most parts of the world in the coming decades, and the water resources literature continues to be dominated by impact and risk assessments based on the latest climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the evidence for anthropogenic changes in precipitation and streamflow records continues to be elusive which, together with the known high uncertainty in GCM ensemble projections, has led to the development of risk assessment methods which are not driven exclusively by GCMs. It is argued that a baseline risk assessment should retain the assumption of climatic stationarity, and be based on the modelling of observed interannual variability as a dominant process in determining water resource system reliability, augmented where justifiable by reliable information from GCMs. However, irrespective of what the climate does in the future, globalization and socio-economic changes are the major drivers for increases in water demand and threats to water security, as exemplified by the burgeoning economies of the BRIC and MINT countries, and the large population increases and economic growth seen in many developing countries. It is suggested that more attention needs to be paid to adaptation to socio-economic change which is arguably more predictable than climatic change, based on what is already known about population and economic growth, lifestyle changes and human choices. More focus is needed on economic analyses that can inform the major investments in water use efficiency measures which can deliver the water savings needed to avert widespread water scarcity. The effectiveness of water use efficiency measures is largely determined by (a) the potential of modern information technology to achieve more efficient water resources management and water use and (b) human responses and choices in the uptake of measures. To assess the potential efficiency gains, it is argued that water resource systems modelling needs to evolve to incorporate the human dimension more explicitly, through Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) modelling. A CHANS modelling framework is outlined which incorporates agent-based modelling to represent individual choices within the human system, and prospects for assessing the effectiveness of efficiency measures involving individual human responses are discussed.     

气候变化对降雨侵蚀力的影响研究综述

以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化导致降雨侵蚀力改变,从而影响区域土壤流失过程。因此,研究气候变化对降雨侵蚀力的影响,对适应和预防全球气候变化、争取环境外交主动权、制定农业发展战略具有积极作用。对相关研究成果进行了总结:国外相关研究由侧重单一的降雨量变化对降雨侵蚀力的影响,发展为气候变暖和土地利用类型的变化对土壤侵蚀环境的综合影响;国内相关研究起步较晚,侧重于不同区域降雨侵蚀力的计算,在长江流域,气候变化对降雨侵蚀力影响的相关研究较少。加强相关研究,既可为长江流域降雨侵蚀力的研究提供理论依据,又可为长江流域降雨侵蚀的防治和气候变化下水保措施的制定提供技术支撑。     

Managing Water Resources to Adapt to Climate Change: Facing Uncertainty and Scarcity in a Changing Context

Some of the most significant future efforts in water resources management will be devoted to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is of special concern in regions facing water scarcity where water management is already challenged by many problems. This paper is a review of current knowledge on approaches to address water issues under uncertainty in water-scarce regions, identifying specific policy actions for climate change adaptation. The focus is on regions, like the Mediterranean, California or Australia, where water resources are well developed and have become an essential part of socioeconomic activities but are currently facing significant challenges due to their dependence on water availability to maintain living standards. We provide an overview of the expected impacts of climate change on water resources and discuss management responses based on peer-reviewed studies published over the past three decades. The adaptation choices cover a wide range of options, from adaptive demand management to utilization of remaining marginal water sources. The intensification of successful measures already applied in the past is still viewed as a solution to reduce climate impacts. However, the emphasis is progressively being placed on sustainability, developing and extending the water management paradigm to include not only technical and economic criteria, but also ecological and social considerations.