The 1970s migration turnaround in Japan revisited: A shift-share approach

Like many developed countries, Japan showed a drastic reduction in net population inflow to the core regions in the 1970s. This paper examines the contribution of a changing supply of highly mobile young adults, as well as employment growth, to this trend. Shift-share analysis of the change in migration patterns reveals that the main cause was a greatly reduced rate of out-migration from the peripheral regions by young adults.     

A long‐run analysis of push and pull factors of internal migration in Italy. Estimation of a gravity model with human capital using homogeneous and heterogeneous approaches

We estimate a gravity model of internal migration with human capital across Italian regions during the 1970–2005 time period. The estimates confirm that the macroeconomic variables are the main drivers of migration flows. As for human capital, while at destination it has had no role, at origin it has worked as a restraining factor. Such a restraining role has mainly worked in the Centre‐North to South direction. We interpret this result in terms of agglomeration economies that makes the Centre‐North as the core and the South as the periphery of Italy. We have framed our analysis inside a cointegration setup and applied both homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators, proving that heterogeneous estimators are more appropriate.     

Structural economic change,labour market segmentation and interregional migration

In the 1970s there were marked changes in internal migration in Australia, with the major metropolitan areas experiencing,for the first time, significant losses in their migration interchanges with other areas. Simultaneously, country regions recorded substantial reductions in their formerly high rates of net outmigration. This paper argues that these migration changes were largely a response to the changing location and structure of labour demand: the high degree of labour market segmentation in Australia, and changes in the industrial structure of employment, together provide an explanation for contrasts in the migration responses of different demographic groups.     

POPULATION CONCENTRATION IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: NEW EVIDENCE

Economic theory associates the increase in population concentration, i.e., the proportion of national population residing in the core economic region, with scale and agglomeration economies. Wheaton and Shishido (1981) estimated that these persist until real per capita national income reaches 5000 1985 US dollars (USD). After this point in a country's economic development, they predicted, population redistribution towards the core region will cease and the proportion of national population residing in the core region will commence to decline. The experience of developed countries (DCs) in the 1970s and 1980s broadly conformed to this pattern, albeit with exceptions. Evidence from less developed countries (LDCs) through the 1980 round of censuses led Vining (1986) to propose a weakened version of the USD 5000 rule in which this point is characterized only by a slowing of rate of population re-distribution towards the core, not by an outright reversal. This paper updates previously reported trends in population redistribution in LDCs and reports on many new countries. Taken as a whole, post-war data reinforce the need for caution of the sort expressed by Vining. While there is a weak negative correlation between the rate of net migration into the core region and per capita income, the share of population residing in the core region may continue to rise even when per capita income has grown to well beyond USD 5000.     

Estimation of place-to-place migration flows from net migration totals: a minimum information approach

"A truism in demography has been that net migration may be derived from information on gross place-to-place flows, but that gross place-to-place flows cannot be inferred back from information on the net population movements in a system. Some recent work on maximum entropy and minimum information models, however, suggests a possible means for estimating just such as set of place-to-place flows. The net migration constrained model presented here could prove particularly useful for updating detailed migration matrices on the basis of current net migration estimates, and could even provide some clues as to the nature of the still poorly understood relationship between gross and net migration. Performance of the model is demonstrated using flow matrices from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses.     

Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."     

Population change and migration in Britain since 1981: evidence for continuing deconcentration

Recent trends in spatial distribution and internal migration in Britain are reviewed using small-area statistics from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. "The results indicate that the differentials in the population growth rate between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Britain narrowed somewhat between the 1970s and the 1980s, but the negative relationship between urban status and population change remained very clear. Moreover, contrary to the experience of the U.S.A. and a number of European countries, in the mid-1980s Britain saw a resurgence of nonmetropolitan growth which had widespread impact across the country."     

Cultural determinants of migration

The potential welfare benefits from free movement of people are large. Especially in Europe, actual flows are lower than one would expect on the basis of economic differences between regions and countries. This paper empirically investigates the importance of cultural barriers in explaining the limited migration flows in Europe. We show that cultural and institutional barriers are indeed important in explaining variation in observed migration flows.     

Testing the recession theory as an explanation for the migration turnaround

"In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround."     

Population redistribution towards core areas of less developed countries, 1950-1980

"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.     

The re-emergence of core region growth: a return to the metropolis?

Recent trends in migration in the United States are reviewed, focusing on the links between regional and metropolitan population change. Three explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon of the 1970s are presented and their implications for future migration trends considered. The author concludes that "while 1970s core region declines may have been strongly linked to the counterurbanization process, post-1980 core region gains do not appear to signal a return to the metropolis."     

Migration and the quasi-labor market in Russia

"This paper explores the twin concepts of labor demand and labor mobility during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. The study uses a detailed data set on labor stock, industrial labor demand, and labor flows for the 1980s in the Yaroslavl' Oblast, and data on migration and regional labor markets for all Russian regions in the 1990s. Contextual features, such as the social contract, full employment, methods of labor allocation, and a generally low rate of geographic mobility, distinguish the centrally planned quasi-labor market from the labor market in capitalist democracies. The findings suggest that net in-migration induces employment change in the current period rather than in a future period. The job creation effects appear concurrent with migration during the Soviet period. In the post-Soviet period, migration and employment relationships are not predictable based on the same relationships during the Soviet period."     

Can regional policies shape migration flows?

Our empirical analysis focuses on the effect of regional policies on migration attraction factors in Europe. We employ a regression discontinuity design to assess the causal relationship between the reception of large amounts of public funds and migration flows in the EU-15 regions. In highly-subsidised regions, we find a large increase in the share of foreign citizens from less-developed countries when compared to low-subsidised regions with similar pre-treatment characteristics. The analysis shows that such an increase is due to the positive impact of the European regional policy on job market opportunities as well as the improvement of public goods supply.     

Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows

"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."     

Historical trends of PCDD/Fs and CO-PCBs in a sediment core collected in Sendai Bay, Japan

The vertical distribution of dioxins in a sediment core was investigated to elucidate historical trends of dioxins discharged into Sendai Bay, Japan. The dioxin concentration was 410 pg/g dry weight (dw) in sediments deposited in the mid-1930s and 3870 pg/g dw in those deposited in the mid-1980s. Dioxin fluxes increased from the mid-1930s and then reached a maximum in the mid-1980s. 1,3,6,8-TeCDD+1,3,7,9-TeCDD, OCDD, and Co-PCB concentrations were 110, 140, and 26 pg/g dw, respectively, in mid-1930s sediments, and reached maximums of 1800, 1100, and 200 pg/g dw, respectively, in mid-1980s sediments. Shipments to Miyagi Prefecture of CNP and PCP products, the major sources of 1,3,6,8-TeCDD+1,3,7,9-TeCDD and OCDD, were highest in 1975 (4700t) and 1970 (3100t), respectively; and in Japan, the amount of PCBs, the major source of Co-PCB congeners, used was highest (11,100t) in 1970. Thus, the period for which the maximum concentrations of 1,3,6,8+1,3,7,9-TeCDD, OCDD, and Co-PCBs were measured in the sediment core (mid-1980s) did not correspond to the time of maximum use of CNP, PCP, or PCB products, but lagged behind by more than 10 years. We attributed this time lag to the time required for the movement of dioxins from Miyagi Prefecture to Sendai Bay.     

The wax and wane of interstate migration patterns in the U.S.A. in the 1980s: a demographic effectiveness field perspective

The author analyzes the structure of temporal changes in U.S. internal migration over the period 1980-1988 using data from matched income tax returns. "A number of hypotheses are explored about how in-migration and out-migration fields wax and wane, thereby giving rise to the overall shifts in demographic effectiveness measured over the period. The results highlight the characteristics of recent (1980-88) shifts in U.S. internal migration patterns including net migration reversals from strong net in-migration to strong net out-migration for states with significant energy sectors, the stanching of net out-migration from many states of the American manufacturing belt, the turnaround to net in-migration for all of northern New England, and the continuance of highly effective net in-migration to the sunbelt states of Florida, Arizona, and Nevada."     

Dynamic material flow analysis for PCBs in the Norwegian building stock

Since their introduction in 1929, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been used in a wide range of applications, mainly in industrialized countries. Although production of PCBs was largely banned in the 1970s, they are still present in various applications as well as in the environment where they remain a potential threat to animal and human health. PCBs were applied in different building materials in Norway in the period between 1950 and 1980. This study attempts to estimate the use for various applications in buildings, and to distinguish between residential and non-residential buildings. The results are combined with a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) to estimate past and future stocks and flows of building-related PCBs in Norway. Results indicate that PCBs in the building stock peaked around 1980, and have since decreased as PCBs have been banned and efforts made to remove the substance from existing applications. However, considerable amounts remain in the building stock and will be released in smaller amounts for many more decades. While current legislation focuses mainly on the applications with short lifetimes, the handling of building applications with long lifetimes represent the main unresolved challenges of the future.     

Recent Suburbanization of Blacks How Much,Who, and Where

According to national survey data, blacks have become net migrants from central cities since 1970. Although this reversal of a long-established trend is generally welcomed, critics fear it may be resulting from displacement rather than preference.

Using Census and Annual Housing Survey data on intrametropolitan migration over three time periods, this paper examines the implications of trend reversal for black suburbanization in nineteen of the nation's largest metropolitan areas (SMSAs). Although black net outmigration from cities is generally observed, in only seven of the SMSAs do black rates of movement from city to suburb yet approach those of whites. In most of the other twelve SMSAs, black rates of outmovement have increased little since 1970 and remain well below white rates. Blacks who are above average in income and education consistently have higher rates of outmovement, suggesting that suburban movement still reflects choice more than displacement.     

An economic analysis of migration in Mexico

This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960–1970 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. The results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earlings levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of in-migration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earnings levels have greater rates of out-migration.The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earnings levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earnings levels have lower associated elasticities of migration.It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.This research was supported by Grant Number 1-RO-1-HD08567-01 from the Population and Reproduction Grants Branch, Center for Population Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Part of this study was completed at the Food Research Institute, Stanford University, where J. R. Ladman was a Visiting Scholar. We are grateful to Barry Edmonston and Dudley Kirk for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Responsibility for remaining shortcomings remains ours.     

Land use regulations and the dispersion of the IT Industry in the San Francisco Bay area

Urban economists have recently found evidence that land use regulations prevent the efficient migration of workers among regions, generating losses in output. By contrast, there is a lack of work that directly considers the relationship between land use regulations and the geography of firms and industries. Since the 1980s, the IT industry has dispersed from its historical core, Silicon Valley, around the broader San Francisco Bay Area. This study finds that restrictive land use practices have limited IT firm creation in Silicon Valley, pushing the industry to less productive parts of the regional economy.