基于不确定语言信息的物流供应商选择

为解决传统供应商的选择与评价过程中专家评判的模糊性和不确定性问题,提出了一种基于不确定语言信息的物流服务供应商选择方法。该方法以不确定语言变量来表征专家的评判从而避免了决策信息的丢失。继而建立了物流服务质量评价属性的权重优化模型,并构造拉格朗日函数来求解该模型,得到评价属性的最优权重。接着利用不确定语言加权几何平均（ULWG）算子集结专家评判信息,则得到供应商的优先排序。给出了基于不确定语言信息的供应商选择的算法步骤和应用实例。     

An Evidential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using Linguistic Terms

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been extensively used in reliability engineering domain. Risk priority number (RPN), defined as the product of occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) of a failure, is the most important measure used in FMEA for prioritizing risk. In this paper, a new evidential FMEA using linguistic term is presented. First, the linguistic terms have been applied in the form of assessment distribution, which enables the experts to express their assessments in a more realistic way and hence improving the applicability of the FMEA. Second, a novel method to transform the experts' linguistic judgments into basic probability assignments (BPAs) is proposed. Third, the flexibility of assigning a weight to each criterion in the FMEA provides a means of specifically identifying weak areas in the system/component studied. At the same time, the weights can be utilized as the discounting coefficients to address the problem existing in conflicting evidence combination. An example is illustrated to show the practical application of the proposed FMEA methodology in engineering. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An improving approach for failure mode and effect analysis under uncertainty environment: A case study of critical function component

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk discerning technique for identifying, evaluating, and reducing possible failures of products or processes. However, the classical FMEA has been criticized for inherent limitations, such as equal weights of risk elements and lack of capability in handling inaccurate information. Although fuzzy-based modified FMEA methods are frequently utilized to handle vagueness of experts' judgments, they still have some drawbacks, for example, requiring extra assumptions, neglecting experts' bounded rationality and psychological effects, lacking consideration of randomness, and only considering three classical risk elements among most of them. Therefore, this study develops an extended risk assessment method to enhance the performance of FMEA, which integrates the superiority of rough number theory in handling subjective and inaccurate information and the advantage of cloud model theory in reflecting the randomness of qualitative evaluations. Moreover, two synthetic weighting methods are developed to determine the weights of risk elements and handle the experts' individual effects, respectively, which consider both subjective and objective aspects. In addition, maintenance is added into the classical risk elements, and then a hierarchical structure containing four risk dimensions is built to evaluate failures' risk levels comprehensively. Finally, an application case to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed FMEA model is presented.     

Failure mode and effect analysis using the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid GRP approach with ordered comprehensive weights

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), a multidisciplinary reliability analysis tool based on team evaluations, has been widely used in various industries. There are three critical issues in FMEA: the conversion of linguistic evaluations, the weights of risk factors, and the ranking mechanism of failure modes. Scholars have used various fuzzy theories and multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods to improve traditional FMEA, but there are still deficiencies. In this paper, the hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy set (HIFS), a concept that combines the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the hesitant fuzzy set (HFS), is introduced into FMEA to convert linguistic evaluations. Some operators based on HIFS are proposed to process the converted data. Among them, a hesitant intuitionistic fuzzy comprehensive weighted Hamming distance (HIFCWHD) operator is proposed to compute the ordered comprehensive weight, effectively weakening the effect of extreme scores on results. The gray relational projection (GRP) method is adopted to determine the risk priority order of the failure modes. Finally, we give an illustrative case to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FMEA method.     

A linguistic risk prioritization approach for failure mode and effects analysis: A case study of medical product development

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a widely used risk management technique for identifying the potential failures from a system, design, or process and determining the most serious ones for risk reduction. Nonetheless, the traditional FMEA method has been criticized for having many deficiencies. Further, in the real world, FMEA team members are usually bounded rationality, and thus, their psychological behaviors should be considered. In response, this study presents a novel risk priority model for FMEA by using interval two‐tuple linguistic variables and an integrated multicriteria decision‐making (MCDM) method. The interval two‐tuple linguistic variables are used to capture FMEA team members' diverse assessments on the risk of failure modes and the weights of risk factors. An integrated MCDM method based on regret theory and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive MCDM) is developed to prioritize failure modes taking experts' psychological behaviors into account. Finally, an illustrative example regarding medical product development is included to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed FMEA. By comparing with other existing methods, the proposed linguistic FMEA approach is shown to be more advantageous in ranking failure modes under the uncertain and complex environment.     

Fuzzy FMEA in risk assessment for test and calibration laboratories

In this study, it is aimed to compare traditional and fuzzy FMEA in identifying areas that may pose risks and need improvement in Test and Calibration Laboratories. Within this scope, FMEA is used in ranking the possible risks. One hundred ninety-nine failures are detected in 91 inspections, carried out in the Test and Calibration Laboratories. Since FMEA uses experts’ evaluations, which are considered subjective, fuzzy logic is implemented to the approach where the evaluations are presented with linguistic variables. The comparison of FMEA and fuzzy FMEA showed that there exists a high correlation between these two analyses and the order of priority based on the Fuzzy Risk Priority Number calculation is overlapping with the Risk Priority Number sequence. Fuzzy FMEA can also be considered when the evaluations are not trustworthy or incomplete. Therefore, this study can be addressed as an example of how fuzzy implementation to FMEA substantially be used instead of traditional FMEA when there exist qualitative, subjective or incomplete evaluations, or in cases where traditional FMEA has troubles in practice.     

一种综合赋权的改进FMEA风险评估方法

针对传统故障模式和影响分析(failure mode and effects analysis, FMEA)方法中的未考虑风险因子权重以及风险因子权重难确定这一问题,提出一种综合赋权的改进FMEA风险评估方法。该方法首先通过FMEA团队明确评估对象和FMEA范围,然后列出所有潜在故障模式,对故障模式进行打分,得到所有的专家打分评估表,再通过语言变量转化为直觉模糊数。由层次分析法确定主观权重,由数据本身确定客观权重,使用直觉模糊混合加权算子(intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid weighted, IFHW)算子集结评价信息,得到所有的故障模式的得分函数,最后基于风险最大化选取每个故障模式的最大分数,进行排名,得到最终的故障模式风险顺序。通过对静电纺丝设备进行FMEA分析,并与其他方法进行比较,验证了所提方法的可行性。     

Failure mode and effect analysis using multi-linguistic terms and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful technique to identify and quantify potential failures. FMEA determines a potential failure mode by evaluating risk factors. In recent years, there are many works improving FMEA by allowing multiple experts to use linguistic term sets to evaluate risk factors. However, it is important to design a framework that can consider both the weight of risk factors and the weight of the experts. In addition, managing conflicts among experts is also an urgent problem to be addressed. In this paper, we proposed an FMEA model based on multi-granularity linguistic terms and the Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. On the other hand, the weights for both experts and risk factors are taken into consideration. The weights are computed objectively and subjectively to ensure the reasonability. Further, we apply our method to an emergency department case, which shows the effectiveness of the method.     

Fuzzy assessment of FMEA for engine systems

When performing failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for quality assurance and reliability improvement, interdependencies among various failure modes with uncertain and imprecise information are very difficult to be incorporated for failure analysis. Consequently, the validity of the results may be questionable. This paper presents a fuzzy-logic-based method for FMEA to address this issue. A platform for a fuzzy expert assessment is integrated with the proposed system to overcome the potential difficulty in sharing information among experts from various disciplines. The FMEA of diesel engine's turbocharger system is presented to illustrate the feasibility of such techniques.     

基于犹豫模糊语言术语的供应商多准则群决策研究

针对全球价值链环境下供应商科学决策问题,提出基于不确定语言术语的多准则群决策模型。首先分别提取专家的偏好信息,将偏好信息转化为犹豫模糊语言术语,引入不确定语言变量进行词计算;其次,运用包络算子融合专家的偏好信息形成犹豫模糊语言术语集,设计集成准则权重的相对贴近度进行产品供应商排序,确定最满意供应商;此外,引入信息熵求解决策过程无先验知识的多准则权重;计算结果表明：3种信息熵参数条件下最满意汽车零部件供应商选择结果完全一致,基于相对贴近度值的供应商优劣排序结果相对于信息熵参数变化不敏感;验证了所提模型可行性、有效性和稳定性,为汽车零部件供应商的实际评价与选择提供有益借鉴。     

A Novel Approach for FMEA: Combination of Interval 2‐Tuple Linguistic Variables and Gray Relational Analysis

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful tool for defining, identifying, and eliminating potential failures from the system, design, process, or service before they reach the customer. Since its appearance, FMEA has been extensively used in a wide range of industries. However, the conventional risk priority number (RPN) method has been criticized for having a number of drawbacks. In addition, FMEA is a group decision behavior and generally performed by a cross‐functional team. Multiple experts tend to express their judgments on the failure modes by using multigranularity linguistic term sets, and there usually exists uncertain and incomplete assessment information. In this paper, we present a novel FMEA approach combining interval 2‐tuple linguistic variables with gray relational analysis to capture FMEA team members’ diversity opinions and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA. An empirical example of a C‐arm X‐ray machine is given to illustrate the potential applications and benefits of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An interval probability-based FMEA model for risk assessment: A real-world case

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an effective quality tool to eliminate the risks and enhance the stability and safety in the fields of manufacturing and service industry. Nevertheless, the conventional FMEA has been criticized for its drawbacks in the evaluation process of risk factors or the determination of risk priority number (RPN), which may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a novel FMEA method based on rough set and interval probability theories. The rough set theory is adopted to manipulate the subjectivity and uncertainty of experts' assessment and convert the evaluation values of risk factors into interval numbers. Meanwhile, the interval exponential RPN (ERPN) is used to replace the traditional RPN due to its superior properties, eg, solving the problems of duplicate numbers and discontinuity of RPN values. Furthermore, an interval probability comparison method is proposed to rank the risk priority of each failure mode for avoiding the information loss in the calculation process of RPN. Finally, a real case study is presented, and the comparison analysis among different FMEA methods is conducted to demonstrate the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed FMEA method.     

汽车碰撞安全风险决策中基于复合聚类的群决策专家权重确定方法

针对风险评估中群决策数据的处理可靠性问题,提出专家权重对于数据处理的重要性。从汽车碰撞安全研究的行业特色出发,依据专家社会因素指标,运用系统聚类和K-均值聚类分析方法,对专家进行专家权威权重聚类;依据专家提供意见的数据一致性和个体与群体一致性程度,运用基于信息熵的方法对专家进行专家意见权重聚类;将两种聚类结果进行复合聚类,得到各位专家的最终权重。结果表明,在综合专家权威权重和专家意见权重的基础上,经复合聚类得到的专家权重具有较好的均衡性和可靠性,为系统项目的研究奠定基础。     

Failure mode and effects analysis by integrating Bayesian fuzzy assessment number and extended gray relational analysis‐technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a prospective risk assessment tool used to identify, assess, and eliminate potential failure modes (FMs) in various industries to improve security and reliability. However, the traditional FMEA method has been criticized for several shortcomings and even the improved FMEA methods based on predefined linguistic terms cannot meet the needs of FMEA team members' diversified opinion expressions. To solve these problems, a novel FMEA method is proposed by integrating Bayesian fuzzy assessment number (BFAN) and extended gray relational analysis‐technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (GRA‐TOPSIS) method. First, the BFANs are used to flexibly describe the risk evaluation results of the identified failure modes. Second, the Hausdorff distance between BFANs is calculated by using the probability density function (PDF). Finally, on the basis of the distance, the extended GRA‐TOPSIS method is applied to prioritize failure modes. A simulation study is presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach in dealing with vague concepts and show its advantages over existing FMEA methods. Furthermore, a real case concerning the risk evaluation of aero‐engine turbine and compressor blades is provided to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method and particularly show the potential of using the BFANs in capturing FMEA team members' diverse opinions.     

Consensus building in linguistic failure mode and effect analysis: A perspective based on prospect theory

As one of many scientific and efficient risk assessment approaches, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) has been widely applied across various fields. There are two core issues in the FMEA approach: identifying the latent failure modes of the systems, products, processes and services and the risk assessment and the prioritization of those failure modes. Then, corrective measures must be taken in a timely and accessible manner to prevent the occurrence of failure modes with higher risk levels. In practice, several FMEA members from different fields are usually involved in the FMEA implementation process; the risk assessment information given by them may vary greatly. Therefore, it is necessary to integrate a consensus-building process into FMEA. Meanwhile, the psychological behaviours of FMEA members have had a great impact on the final prioritization of failure modes. Prospect theory is an effective approach for describing individual psychological behaviours. Therefore, this paper presents a novel linguistic FMEA approach to address the consensus issue from the perspective of prospect theory. In the proposed linguistic FMEA approach, a consensus measurement approach based on prospect theory is constructed. Then, a novel feedback adjustment mechanism is designed in which FMEA members can adjust not only their assessment information but also their reference points to achieve an acceptable consensus degree. Eventually, a practical application is used to show the validity and applicability of the proposed linguistic FMEA approach.     

Improved FMEA based on IVF and fuzzy VIKOR method: A case study of workpiece box system of CNC gear milling machine

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool used to define, identify, and prevent known or unknown potential risks. An improved FMEA based on interval triangular fuzzy numbers (IVF) and fuzzy VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method is proposed in this study to solve problems of expression and processing of uncertain information, weights of risk factors, and ranking of failure modes in traditional FMEA. Linguistic variables are used to evaluate failure modes level and relative importance of risk factors and are expressed via interval-valued triangular fuzzy number. Determining the subjective weights of risk factors using fuzzy AHP, calculating the objective weights of risk factors using the extended VIKOR method, and obtaining the comprehensive weights of risk factors via ICWGT are proposed for solving the weight problem of risk factors. Finally, the fuzzy VIKOR method is used to rank risk priority of failure modes. The proposed method is used to evaluate workpiece box system of CNC gear milling machine and the results are compared with the findings of other methods to verify effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method.     

Fuzzy approach to dependability performance evaluation

This paper presents a model for dependability performance evaluation by fuzzy sets utilization. Basic dependability indicators (reliability, maintainability and maintenance support) are used for the analysis of technical systems' conditions from the aspects of design, construction, maintenance and logistics. These indicators as well as associated dependability expressions itself are described by linguistic variables, which are characterized by a membership function to the defined classes. The proposed model is primarily appropriate for introduction, analysis and synthesis of information related to quality of systems in operation. Such data are often available only as experts' judgment and estimations. A practical engineering example (mechanical system at bucket wheel excavator) has been presented to demonstrate the proposed dependability analysis and synthesis model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: An Evidential Downscaling Method

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an engineering and management technique, which is widely used to define, identify, and eliminate known or potential failures, problems, errors, and risk from the design, process, service, and so on. In a typical FMEA, the risk evaluation is determined by using the risk priority number (RPN), which is obtained by multiplying the scores of the occurrence, severity, and detection. However, because of the uncertainty in FMEA, the traditional RPN has been criticized because of several shortcomings. In this paper, an evidential downscaling method for risk evaluation in FMEA is proposed. In FMEA model, we utilize evidential reasoning approach to express the assessment from different experts. Multi‐expert assessments are transformed to a crisp value with weighted average method. Then, Euclidean distance from multi‐scale is applied to construct the basic belief assignments in Dempster–Shafer evidence theory application. According to the proposed method, the number of ratings is decreased from 10 to 3, and the frame of discernment is decreased from 2¹⁰ to 2³, which greatly decreases the computational complexity. Dempster's combination rule is utilized to aggregate the assessment of risk factors. We illustrate a numerical example and use the proposed method to deal with the risk priority evaluation in FMEA. The results and comparison show that the proposed method is more flexible and reasonable for real applications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

群决策环境下危险品运输风险评价方法

〖HT5”H〗摘要： 〖HTSS〗为了合理地确定不同运输方案的风险等级,为危险品生产企业提供运输决策支持,构建了危险品运输风险评价指标体系,提出了群决策环境下危险品运输风险评价方法。该方法应用模糊语言术语来表达评价值,基于专家评价值的一致度来修正专家初始权重,利用综合赋权法确定评价指标的权重,引入格贴近度确定不同运输方案的风险等级。该方法有效地降低了风险评价工作的复杂性。最后以某危险品运输为例,验证了该方法的可行性和实用性。     

Time-varying FMEA method based on interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory

This paper proposes a time-varying failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method based on interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory, which not only improves the limitations in evaluating, weighting, and ranking but also considers the effect of time change. The process of distinguishing time changes enables the FMEA to have dynamic recognition capability, enabling it to identify critical failure modes more accurately. The interval-valued spherical fuzzy theory is used to deal with the uncertainty of intuitionistic linguistic evaluations. The advantages of two traditional approaches are combined to improve the weight determined method. Risk factors are divided into subjective and objective types. In the subjective risk factors, which are severity (S) and detection (D), the consistency of judgment is used as the acceptance standard. In the objective risk factors, which are occurrence (O), the time-varying characteristics are considered. The occurrence in a certain period is expressed as the integral of failure intensity in the time period. Interval-valued spherical fuzzy exponential risk priority number is proposed as the criterion for measuring the priority of failure modes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using an example of spindle.