A lifeline vulnerability study in Barcelona, Spain

The term vulnerability is used as a measure of the damage suffered by a structure due to seismic activity. Vulnerability to ground movement is determined by the structure itself; therefore, the vulnerability of a system does not depend on the local seismic risk. This definition of vulnerability indicates that a structure may be vulnerable in spite of being located in a seismically safe area.Lifeline is an earthquake engineering term denoting those systems necessary for human life and urban function, without which large urban regions cannot exist. Lifelines basically convey food, water, fuel, energy, information, and other materials necessary for human existence from the production areas to the consuming urban areas. Prolonged disruption of lifelines such as the water supply or electric power for a city or urbanized region would inevitably lead to major economic losses, deteriorated public healt, and eventually population migration. Earthquakes are probably the most likely natural disaster that would lead to major lifeline disruption.The adequate operation of lifelines is vital for the economic development of regions under moderate to high seismic activity. After an earthquake, the proper operation of all vital systems is necessary, for instance hospitals for medical attention of the wounded and highways for communication and assistance for victims.In this work we apply the knowledge of pipeline vulnerability to the water supply system, telephone, gas, electricity, sanitary sewer pipelines (waste water), subway, and galleries systems in Barcelona.     

Study of rationalized safety design based on the seismic PSA for an LMFBR

Seismic PSA was carried out for a typical liquid metal cooled fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) in order to study the rationalized seismic design, maintaining and/or improving safety during seismic event. The seismic sequence quantification identifies the dominant structures, systems and components (SSCs) to the seismic core damage frequency (CDF). The sensitivity analyses by reducing or increasing the seismic capacity for SSCs are used to examine the optimized seismic design in view of safety and economical aspects. The LMFBR-specific risk-significant SSCs are reactor coolant boundary, decay heat removal coolant path and reactor control rod, which are different from those of light water reactors (LWRs). The electrical power supply system has a minor contribution to the seismic CDF. The sensitivity study shows that passive safety features of LMFBRs are important to maintain and/or enhance seismic capacity. The passive safety includes the decay heat removal capability via natural circulation and safety measures without depending on the support systems such as alternating current (AC) electrical power, for example. On the course of seismic sequence quantification, a methodology to evaluate the probability of seismic-induced multiple failure has been developed and applied to the decay heat removal function. The results suggest the multiplicity of the triply redundant system is to be considered for the significant components such as the decay heat removal path when one considers the difference in the seismic response.     

Probability-based predictive self-healing reconfiguration for shipboard power systems

The electric power systems in US Navy ships supply energy to sophisticated systems for weapons, communications, navigation and operation. During battle, various weapons may attack a ship causing severe damage to the electrical system on the ship. This damage can lead to de-energisation of critical loads which can eventually decrease a ship's survivability. It is very important therefore to maintain the availability of power to the loads that keep the power system operational. There exists technology for ships that can detect incoming weapons. This knowledge can be used to determine reconfiguration actions which can be taken before the actual hit to reduce the damage to the electrical system when the weapon hits. Then reconfiguration for restoration can be performed after the hit to reconfigure loads de-energised by the damage from the hit. A new automated probabilistic predictive self-healing methodology to determine such reconfiguration control actions is presented. Implementation of these actions will lead to less damage caused by a weapon hit and can considerably improve a ship's chances of surviving an attack. This probabilistic approach entails three major functions: weapon damage assessment, pre-hit reconfiguration before a weapon hit for damage reduction and reconfiguration for restoration after a weapon hit to restore de-energised loads. A case study is presented to illustrate the new methodology     

Mechanistic quantification of RC bridge damage states under earthquake through fragility analysis

Risk assessment of infrastructure systems plays an increasingly important role in their plan, design, maintenance, retrofit and life-cycle cost evaluation taking into consideration their vulnerability to natural, technological and terrorist hazard. This paper develops a mechanistic model for seismic damageability of concrete bridges in the form of fragility curve in such a way that the model can be calibrated with the empirical fragility curves constructed on the basis of the damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. As often observed from this and other destructive earthquakes, bridges are one of the most vulnerable components of a highway network system subjected to earthquake ground motion. For this reason, bridge damageability information in a succinct from as fragility curve is needed to pursue the seismic risk assessment of a highway networks consisting of as large as thousands of bridges that can be affected by a high magnitude earthquake with in and near the service area of the network.     

A model for the seismic reliability assessment of electric power transmission systems

A comprehensive model to evaluate the seismic reliability of electric power transmission systems is presented. The model provides information on the probability of structural failure of critical equipment at the major substations, from which the corresponding probabilities of power disruption to a given service area are determined. With the proposed methodology earthquake ground motions are defined as stochastic processes, and seismic capacities of electrical equipment are determined on the basis of available test data and simple modeling, from which fragility functions of critical equipment and specific substations are developed. Probabilities of power disruption resulting from network disconnectivity and abnormal power flow are assessed through Monte Carlo simulation. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the electric power network in San Francisco and vicinity under the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and the probabilities of power interruption are contrasted with the actual power failures observed during that earthquake.     

Methodology for identifying near-optimal interdiction strategies for a power transmission system

Previous methods for assessing the vulnerability of complex systems to intentional attacks or interdiction have either not been adequate to deal with systems in which flow readjusts dynamically (such as electricity transmission systems), or have been complex and computationally difficult. We propose a relatively simple, inexpensive, and practical method (“Max Line”) for identifying promising interdiction strategies in such systems. The method is based on a greedy algorithm in which, at each iteration, the transmission line with the highest load is interdicted. We apply this method to sample electrical transmission systems from the Reliability Test System developed by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and compare our method and results with those of other proposed approaches for vulnerability assessment. We also study the effectiveness of protecting those transmission lines identified as promising candidates for interdiction. These comparisons shed light on the relative merits of the various vulnerability assessment methods, as well as providing insights that can help to guide the allocation of scarce resources for defensive investment.     

Compensable power for electrical systems in nonsinusoidalconditions

Power definitions are extended to electrical circuits where both loads and supply are harmonic generators and where a series source impedance is considered to provide a realistic representation of electrical power systems. A method is proposed whereby distortion is compensated and power-factor corrected by means of reactance one-ports inserted in series and parallel into the electrical circuit. The approach is applied to single-phase circuits     

Adoptability of grid computing technology in power systems analysis, operations and control

With the deregulation and constant expansion in power systems, the demand of high performance computing (HPC) for power system adequacy and security analysis has been increased rapidly. HPC also plays an important role in ensuring efficient and reliable communication for power system operation and control. In past few years, grid computing technology is catching up much attention from the power engineers and researchers. Grid computing technology is an infrastructure, which can provide HPC and communication mechanism for providing services in these areas of power system. A review is presented on the research which has been carried out in the last few years in this area regarding the applicability of grid computing technology in power system reliability and security analysis, operations, monitoring and control systems. We also introduce more grid computing applications for the future research directions in order to provide more open access and more efficient and effective computing services to meet the increasing needs of the power industry. This review presents a comprehensive and clear picture of the benefits of using this technology in terms of efficiency and cost.     

Thermodynamic performance analysis of three solid oxide fuel cell and gas microturbine hybrid systems for application in auxiliary power units

In this study, three different configurations of a solid oxide fuel cell and gas microturbine hybrid system are evaluated for application in auxiliary power units. The first configuration is a common hybrid system in auxiliary power units, utilizing a fuel cell stack in the structure of the gas turbine cycle. The other configurations use two series and parallel fuel cell stacks in the structure of the gas turbine cycle. The main purpose of this research is thermodynamic analysis, evaluation of the performance of the proposed hybrid systems in similar conditions, and selection of an appropriate system in terms of efficiency, power generation, and entropy generation rate. In this study, the utilized fuel cells were subjected to electrochemical, thermodynamic, and thermal analyses and their working temperatures were calculated under various working conditions. Results indicate that the hybrid system with two series stacks had maximum power generation and efficiency compared with the other two cases. Moreover, the simple hybrid system and the system with two parallel stacks had relatively equal pure power generation and efficiency. According to the investigations, hybrid system with two series fuel cell stacks, which had 3424 and 1712 cells, respectively, can achieve the electrical efficiency of over 48%. A hybrid system with two parallel fuel cell stacks, in which each stack had 2568 cells, had the electrical efficiency of 46.3%. Findings suggested that maximum electrical efficiency occurred between the pressure ratios of 5–6 in the proposed hybrid systems.     

Seismic margin reviews of nuclear power plants: Identification of important functions and systems

A study of the results of several seismic PRAs was performed to develop a screening approach for the assessment of the seismic margin of nuclear power plants. This screening approach combines both systems insights and fragility information to simplify the margin review process. The purpose of this paper is to present the basis and method used for the development of the systems screening portion of the seismic margin review methodology.     

Reliability assessment of restructured power systems using optimal load shedding technique

Power systemrestructuring and deregulation has changed the strategy of reliabilitymanagement of a power system. Load shedding, and generation and reserve re-dispatch methods used in the existing reliability evaluation techniques have to be improved to incorporate these changes. An optimisation technique, incorporating those changes, is proposed in this study to determine load curtailment and generation re-dispatch for each contingency state in the reliability evaluation of restructured power systems with the Poolco market structure. The problem is formulated using the optimal power flow (OPF) technique. The objective of the problem is to minimise the total system cost, which includes generation, reserve and interruption costs, subject to market and network constraints. A model for the contingency management of a Poolco power market is presented to include generation and reserve biddings, reliability considerations and transmission network constraints in reliability evaluation. Both supply side reliability for a generation company (Genco) and demand-side reliability for a customer can be calculated using the technique. The proposed technique can be used to evaluate both conventional and restructured power systems, and can provide both economic and reliability information for the independent system operator to manage system reliability, for Gencos to enhance their reliability, and for customer to select suppliers. The modified IEEE-RTS with the Poolco market has been analysed to illustrate the techniques. The results obtained using the proposed technique have been compared with those from the existing load shedding techniques.     

基于易损性指数的钢筋混凝土框架结构地震损伤评估

在传统地震易损性分析的基础上,提出了易损性指数的概念,并用其来评估结构的地震损伤。通过引入群体结构震害评估中震害指数的概念,结合解析地震易损性分析得到的结构破坏状态概率,将震害指数的数学期望作为单体结构的易损性指数。选择8层和10层两组考虑不同抗震设防水平的钢筋混凝土框架结构为研究对象,分析得到结构的地震易损性曲线、破坏状态概率曲线、易损性指数曲线以及结构在小震、中震和大震作用下的易损性指数。分析结果表明:按我国抗震规范设计的钢筋混凝土框架结构基本可以满足“小震不坏”、“中震可修”和“大震不倒”的性能要求。在大震作用下,结构可以较好地控制较严重破坏的发生。随着抗震设防水平的提升,结构的抗震能力得到了加强,但结构在小震、中震和大震作用下的易损性指数却发生了增加。     

Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

Nowadays,reliability is moving toward interdisciplinary research with ever-increasing connotations for full life-cycle system management,including system design,analysis,modeling,test,operation,optimization,etc.Meanwhile,complex systems,such as transportation system,power system,communication system and other various critical infrastructure systems,have posed a big challenge,which attracts great attention both in theory and application.Characterized by nonlinear interaction,emergent response,and high dimensional coupling,the complex systems are in the face of extremely high uncertainty and vulnerability.Therefore,failure of these complex systems could cause even more dramatic cascading impacts,leading to huge losses of life and property.All these realities put forward more urgent requirements for the fundamental theory and specific application of reliability management of complex systems.     

False targets vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems

System defense against natural threats and disasters that have a stochastic nature includes providing redundancy and protecting system elements. The defense against strategic intentional attacks can also include deploying false targets aimed at misleading the attacker. Distribution of the available resources among different defensive means is an important problem that arises in organizing the defense of complex civil infrastructures, industrial systems or military objects. The article considers defense resource allocation in a system exposed to external intentional attack. The expected damage caused by the attack is evaluated as system unsupplied demand. The defender distributes its limited resource between deploying redundant genuine elements and false elements, both of which are targets of attack. The attacker attacks a subset of the elements and distributes its limited resource evenly among the attacked elements. Two cases are considered: in the first one the number of attacked elements and the vulnerability of each genuine element are fixed and the defense resource distribution is determined as a solution of an optimization problem; in the second one the number of attacked elements is the attacker's free choice variable and the element's vulnerability depends on a contest determined by the defender's and attacker's resources allocated to each element. The defender's optimal resource distribution strategy is determined as a solution of a two-period minmax game. It is shown that the optimal number of genuine elements decreases monotonically with the growth of the element cost and vulnerability, whereas the optimal number of false elements demonstrates non-monotonic behavior. The contest intensity is an important factor influencing the optimal defense resource distribution. It cannot be ignored when the defense strategy is determined, and it thus also impacts the attack strategy.     

Decentralized linear quadratic power system stabilizers for multi-machine power systems

Linear quadratic stabilizers are well-known for their superior control capabilities when compared to the conventional lead?Clag power system stabilizers. However, they have not seen much of practical importance as the state variables are generally not measurable; especially the generator rotor angle measurement is not available in most of the power plants. Full state feedback controllers require feedback of other machine states in a multi-machine power system and necessitate block diagonal structure constraints for decentralized implementation. This paper investigates the design of Linear Quadratic Power System Stabilizers using a recently proposed modified Heffron?CPhillip??s model. This model is derived by taking the secondary bus voltage of the step-up transformer as reference instead of the infinite bus. The state variables of this model can be obtained by local measurements. This model allows a coordinated linear quadratic control design in multi machine systems. The performance of the proposed controller has been evaluated on two widely used multi-machine power systems, 4 generator 10 bus and 10 generator 39 bus systems. It has been observed that the performance of the proposed controller is superior to that of the conventional Power System Stabilizers (PSS) over a wide range of operating and system conditions.     

钢筋混凝土柱基于易损性曲线的地震损伤评估

为评估地震作用下结构构件的损伤程度,建立基于竖向剩余承载力的损伤指标,提出钢筋混凝土柱基于易损性曲线的地震损伤评估方法。该方法对钢筋混凝土柱采用精细化分析模型,避免单自由度体系假设,通过增量动力分析获得对数正态分布形式的易损性曲线,进行地震损伤程度评估。研究表明:所提出的地震损伤评估方法,计算简单,能有效评估钢筋混凝土柱在不同地震动强度指标下的损伤程度,为震后钢筋混凝土结构的安全评估和修复加固提供了理论依据。     

Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 km×3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events.     

Vulnerability of damage-accumulating systems

Disastrous failures have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. Quantified vulnerability can help designers and regulators to decide how much vulnerability is tolerable. Vulnerability of a system to a specified disturbance is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of the disturbed system to the probability of failure of the undisturbed system. This vulnerability can be specialized to particular system types. It is adapted here to systems that are expected to deteriorate while in service due to processes such as fatigue, creep, corrosion, aging, neglect or insufficient maintenance. Application is illustrated by vulnerability to fatigue under constant and variable stress.     

Slow dynamics simulation of power systems

This paper investigates the simulation of slow dynamics in two-time-scale power systems. A new approach is proposed to obtain the slow dynamics by projecting the trajectory of the post-fault system onto its slow manifold. This is achieved by a nonlinear projection of the full order system initial condition onto the slow manifold, such that the fast intraarea dynamics are not excited. A projection scheme is developed and applied to two-test power systems.     

Experimental investigation of a micro-combined cooling, heating and power system driven by a gas engine

An experimental investigation of the performance of a micro-combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) system is described. The natural gas and LPG-fired micro-CCHP system uses a small-scale generator set driven by a gas engine and a new small-scale adsorption chiller, which has a rated electricity power of 12 kW, a rated cooling of 9 kW and a rated heating capacity of 28 kW. Silica gel–water is used as working pair in the adsorption cooling system. The refrigeration COP of the adsorption chiller is over 0.3 for 13 °C evaporation temperature. The test facility designed and built is described, which supplies better test-rig platform for cooling, heating and power cogeneration. Experimental methodology of this system is presented and the results are discussed. An energetic analysis of micro-CCHP system is performed as well. The overall thermal and electrical efficiency is over 70%.