Global warming — time for a cool look

Responses to global warming will be determined by social and political factors as much as by science. During the 1980s, concern about climate change has been encouraged by developments in the international arena and in the energy sector. There are some similarities between the responses to this new problem and those to the oil crises of the 1970s. Similar intellectual tools are being used to understand the appropriateness of different courses of action while there must be doubts about the durability of public and political interest. At the same time costs could fall disproportionately on different countries, particularly those in the developing world.     

Economic global warming potentials

A reformulation of global warming potentials is propounded, that combines the time-horizon and discounting definitions, and covers both ordinary atmospheric forcing (via greenhouse gases) and its rate-of-change. Insofar as GWPs are used to guide investment and socioeconomic choices, there is merit in adopting cost-benefit techniques. The parametric equivalence of the two definitions applies for the ordinary atmospheric forcing; but for its rat-of-change, only the discounting definition gives realistic results, as shown in application to methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas.     

Greenhouse gas emissions in the nuclear life cycle: A balanced appraisal

In order to combat global warming, a detailed knowledge of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with different energy conversion technologies is important. For nuclear energy, GHG emissions result from different process stages of the whole fuel cycle. A life-cycle assessment offers the possibility to properly calculate these emissions. In the past, both indirect energy use and GHG emissions were studied by many researchers. Most of the studies result in low indirect emissions comparable to wind turbines. However, some of the studies in the literature obtain high results adding up to a significant fraction of the direct emissions from a CCGT.     

Recovery of fluorocarbons in Japan as a measure for abating global warming

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for recovering fluorocarbons as measures for the abatement of global warming. In this study, we focused on the three different kinds of fluorocarbons: CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs, and targeted refrigerant use because of the availability of relevant data. We first estimated future fluorocarbon emissions from the targeted appliances; we next compared those emissions in the units of CO₂ equivalent to the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990 from a quantitative point of view. As the result of this study, it was found that fluorocarbon emissions in 1999 and 2010 would be equal to approximately 7 and 3% of the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990 respectively. Moreover, if we implement a 100% recovery rate in every recovery route, we can reduce a large amount of emissions which correspond to approximately 2–5% of the level of CO₂ emissions in 1990, even if we take into account the energy-related CO₂ emissions by the transportation and decomposition of fluorocarbons.     

The relative contribution of waste heat from power plants to global warming

Evidence on global climate change, being caused primarily by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is perceived as fairly conclusive. It is generally attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect, resulting from higher levels of trapped heat radiation by increasing atmospheric concentrations of gases such as CO₂ (carbon dioxide). Much of these gases originate from power plants and fossil fuel combustion. However, the fate of vast amounts of waste heat rejected into the environment has evaded serious scholarly research. While 1 kWh electricity generation in a typical condensing coal-fired power plant emits around 1 kg of CO₂, it also puts about 2 kWh energy into the environment as low grade heat. For nuclear (fission) electricity the waste heat release per kWh is somewhat higher despite much lower CO₂ releases. This paper evaluates the impact of waste heat rejection combined with CO₂ emissions using Finland and California as case examples. The immediate effects of waste heat release from power production and radiative forcing by CO₂ are shown to be similar. However, the long-term (hundred years) global warming by CO₂-caused radiative forcing is about twenty-five times stronger than the immediate effects, being responsible for around 92% of the heat-up caused by electricity production.     

GISELA – GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA – GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model – is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.     

Transition to hydrogen economy in the United States: A 2006 status report

Energy crises in the latter part of the 20th century, as well as the current increase in the cost of oil, emphasize the need for alternate sources of energy in the United States. Concerns about climate change dictate that the source be clean and not contribute to global warming. Hydrogen has been identified as such a source for many years and the transition to a hydrogen economy was predicted to occur from the mid-1970s to 2000. This paper reports on the status of this transition in the year 2006. Instead of being a clean source of energy, most of the hydrogen produced in the US results from steam reforming of fossil fuels, releasing _CO2${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ and other pollutants to the atmosphere. Nuclear process heat is ideally suited for the production of hydrogen, either using electricity for electrolysis of water, or heat for thermochemical hydrogen production or reforming of fossil fuels. However, no new nuclear plants have been ordered or built in the United States since 1979, and it may be many years before high-temperature nuclear reactors are available for production of hydrogen. Considerable research and development efforts are focused on commercializing hydrogen-powered vehicles to lessen the dependence of the transportation sector on imported oil. However, the use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) in 2006 is two orders-of-magnitude less than what has been predicted. Although it makes little sense environmentally or economically, hydrogen is also used as fuel in internal combustion engines. Development of hydrogen economy will require a strong intervention by external forces.     

The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness — and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.     

A Novel Passive Solar Greenhouse Based on Phase-Change Materials

A novel concept for a passive solar greenhouse for regions with mild winter climates is described. The concept was tested with a 66-m² prototype greenhouse. The roof of the greenhouse was made of modular double-layered transparent panels filled with a latent heat-storage material. During both night and day, the thermal performance of the test building was significantly better than that of the control glass house. The main drawback of the proposed method is that the light intensity is low in the morning until the solid Latent Heat Storage Material (LHSM) is completely melted. Therefore, practical application of this method is restricted to specific crops and climate regions.     

Greenhouse-gas emissions from solar electric- and nuclear power: A life-cycle study

Solar- and nuclear-electricity-generation technologies often are deemed “carbon-free” because their operation does not generate any carbon dioxide. However, this is not so when considering their entire lifecycle of energy production; carbon dioxide and other gases are emitted during the extraction, processing, and disposal of associated materials. We determined the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, namely, CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, and chlorofluorocarbons due to materials and energy flows throughout all stages of the life of commercial technologies for solar-electric- and nuclear-power generation, based on data from 12 photovoltaic (PV) companies, and reviews of nuclear-fuel life cycles in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Previous GHG estimates vary widely, from 40 to 180 CO₂-eq./kWh for PV, and 3.5–100 CO₂-eq./kWh for nuclear power. Country-specific parameters account for many of these differences, which are exacerbated by outdated information. We conclude, instead, that lifetime GHG emissions from solar- and nuclear-fuel cycles in the United States are comparable under actual production conditions and average solar irradiation, viz., 22–49 g CO₂-eq./kWh (average US), 17–39 g CO₂-eq./kWh (south west) for solar electric, and 16–55 g CO₂-eq./kWh for nuclear energy. However, several factors may significantly change this picture within the next 5 years, and there are unanswered questions about the nuclear fuel cycle that warrant further analyses.     

Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming

In 2008 and 2009 two papers by Kharecha and Hansen and by Nel and Cooper examined possible fossil energy availability and energy consumption scenarios and consequences for future climate. The papers yield somewhat similar results regarding atmospheric CO₂ levels, but they reach substantially different conclusions regarding future climate change. Here, we compare their methods and results. Our work shows that Nel and Cooper's paper significantly underestimates future warming. Nel and Cooper conclude that even if all the available fossil fuels would be burned at the maximum possible rate during this century, the consequent warming would cap at less than 1 °C above the 2000 level. We find that – under Nel and Cooper's assumption of an intensive exploitation of fossil fuels – the global temperature in 2100 will likely reach levels which would lead to severely damaging long-term impacts.     

Seven steps to curb global warming

Based on best current estimates that the world needs to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2050, and that there is at best a 10-year window of opportunity available to initiate the enormous changes needed, this paper proposes a set of seven self-contained steps that can be taken at a global level to tackle the problem with some prospect of success. The steps are self-financing and practicable, in that they are based on existing technologies. They involve agreement to create a new international agency charged with formulating and policing a global carbon pricing regime; a complementary step involving global monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions utilizing satellite resources; taking steps to compensate developing countries for preserving rainforest as carbon sinks; the dismantling of newly created trade barriers holding back global trade in biofuels; global promotion of a transition to renewable sources of electricity through facilitation of grid interconnections with independent power producers; a global moratorium on the building of new coal-fired power stations; and recycling of carbon revenues to promote uptake of renewable energy sources in developing countries, particularly Brazil, India and China. Taken as a group, it is argued that these steps are both necessary and sufficient. They call for institutional innovations at a global level that are politically difficult but feasible, given the magnitude of the problems addressed.     

Russia's nuclear power safety— an alternative proposal

The major part of Western proposals to the G-7 meeting on increasing the safety of Russian nuclear energy was based on the shut down of all Chernobyl-type RBMK reactors as the essential first step and increased safety levels in producing WWER reactors. It is therefore relevant to examine the possible repercussions on electricity generation supply and demand if this course of action is approved.     

Valuing the greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power: A critical survey

This article screens 103 lifecycle studies of greenhouse gas-equivalent emissions for nuclear power plants to identify a subset of the most current, original, and transparent studies.     

On the global warming problem due to carbon dioxide

The subject of global warming due to the increased use of fossil fuels is analyzed using a modification of the predator prey equations. The results of the calculation indicate that both the fossil fuels and civilization will both become extinct as time increases.     

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.     

Residential energy use and conservation in Denmark, 1965–1980

New data have been assembled to quantify patterns of residential energy use in Denmark from 1965 to 1980 by fuel and end use. Indicators of the structure and intensity of energy use are developed from basic data and reviewed. Changes since 1972 are quantified and compared with those observed in other countries. The reduction in oil use in oil-heated dwellings is shown to be the largest among OECD countries. Elements of past, present and future Danish conservation policies are reviewed. While many of these are unique and far reaching, the predominant cause of conservation up until 1980 has been short-term measures stimulated primarily by higher energy prices.     

Greenhouse gas reporting for biofuels: A comparison between the RED,RTFO and PAS2050 methodologies

Biofuels have been identified as a potential short-term solution for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road transport. Currently, ‘1st generation’ biofuels are produced from food crops, but there are concerns with the indirect effects of utilising edible crops for fuel. There is increased interest in producing ‘2nd generation’ biofuels from woody crops and straw, as these can be grown on lower grade land or do not compete directly with food. In order to ensure that biofuels actually deliver emission savings, the overall GHG balance of producing them must be calculated accurately, and compared with conventional fossil fuels. The GHG balance can vary significantly however, depending on biomass type, the production processes, the indirect effects, and also by the method by which the GHG emission balance is calculated. Currently, in the UK, there are three main GHG methodologies that potentially affect biofuel producers. Each has a different approach to measure GHG emissions from biofuel production, and each provides a different result, causing difficulties for policy makers. This study performs a partial life cycle assessment for bioethanol production from wheat grain and wheat straw to demonstrate the variability of the results between methodologies.     

Greenhouse gas balances of transportation biofuels,electricity and heat generation in Finland—Dealing with the uncertainties

One way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector is to replace fossil fuels by biofuels. However, production of biofuels also generates greenhouse gas emissions. Energy and greenhouse gas balances of transportation biofuels suitable for large-scale production in Finland have been assessed in this paper. In addition, the use of raw materials in electricity and/or heat production has been considered. The overall auxiliary energy input per energy content of fuel in biofuel production was 3–5-fold compared to that of fossil fuels. The results indicated that greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of barley-based ethanol or biodiesel from turnip rape are very probably higher compared to fossil fuels. Second generation biofuels produced using forestry residues or reed canary grass as raw materials seem to be more favourable in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the use of raw materials in electricity and/or heat production is even more favourable. Significant uncertainties are involved in the results mainly due to the uncertainty of N₂O emissions from fertilisation and emissions from the production of the electricity consumed or replaced.