供应网络横向联合应急战略库存策略研究

本文研究供应网络中基于联盟的多个企业建立联合应急战略库存的决策问题.本文构建了基于成本最小化的企业库存决策模型.模型同时考虑了突发事件本身发生概率和突发事件对联盟中每个企业的影响概率;分析突发事件发生后需求激增情况下,企业单独应对和通过联合应急战略库存应对的不同库存策略;比较了两种情形下不同的最优库存水平.最后通过数值分析,讨论了联盟规模等因素对库存成本的影响.     

供应中断风险下供应链恢复能力投资决策及协调

摘要： 〖HTSS〗为了减缓供应商生产运营中断对制造商带来的供应中断风险,制造商需要在突发事件前优化供应链恢复能力投资水平。引入CVaR来刻画供应链在突发事件下的应急目标,建立了一定置信水平控制下的供应链恢复能力投资的决策模型,进而揭示了制造商风险规避程度对供应链最优恢复能力投资水平的影响。分权供应链下,制造商运用基于绩效的契约来激励供应商投资合适的恢复能力,以协调供应链。结论表明,CVaR可以恰当描述供应链恢复的能力投资行为,当风险规避程度越高,供应链最优恢复能力投资越多;当单位中断时间的惩罚系数的条件期望值等于单位中断时间的商誉成本的条件期望值时,供应链进入协调状态。     

供应中断和需求扰动下供应链竞合关系研究

考虑供应中断和需求扰动情境下2个供应商和1个零售商组成的两级供应链系统,构建了合作、静态非合作、嵌套式静态非合作3个博弈模型,分析集中式、分散式供应商竞争与合作情形下的零售商采购策略与供应商定价策略。研究表明,当市场需求增大时,分散式供应商合作情形下供应链整体利润最高;当市场需求减少时,集中式供应链整体利润最高。当权衡供应商订货成本与产品供应稳定性时,零售商倾向与相对稳定的供应商合作;当供需同时不确定时,仅较稳定的供应商受影响。     

供应系统突发事件下动态二维应急管理

针对供应系统发生的突发事件,引入应急紧急度概念和动态管理思想,建立了供应链中以制造商为核心企业的动态二维应急管理模型,并用算例分析验证了模型的适用性.研究表明,在供应系统出现突发事件时,根据应急紧急程度的差异来对突发事件进行级别分类,同时运用动态管理来实现制造商和供应商之间的应急协调,可以缩短缺货周期,降低应急成本,最快地恢复供应系统的正常运转.     

建筑材料供应中断对承包商成本的冲击研究——基于鲁棒模型分析

为了揭示供应商与承包商为主体的二级供应链中，两者间耦合作用条件下发生的供应中断对供应商最优决策及对承包商成本的影响机制，且剖析供应中断对承包商成本的冲击效应，以供应商存在高退出风险为研究对象，在仅知产量均值与方差条件下，运用Scarf提出的“极大极小值”鲁棒决策方法，通过设定不同决策情况下的供应链系统反馈，分析了不同退出标准情况下二级供应链的博弈过程。基于理论支撑下的鲁棒模型数值仿真结果得出：在退出标准α为100时，中间变量在290~350范围内，供应商存在最优决策，但承包商最优决策无法确定；与α为0时相比，在订货量达到一定状态，即α为140时，承包商成本增加了1.5%，表明承包商成本与供应商退出标准呈正相关，退出标准越高，对承包商成本造成的冲击效应越大。此研究结论为供应链初期不稳定且信息不完整条件下发生的供应中断影响机理提供了新的视角。     

模糊环境下考虑供应中断的再制造闭环供应链研究

为研究需求和回收品质量模糊不确定环境下供应中断对再制造闭环供应链的影响,建立了系统总成本模型。运用模糊机会约束规划方法解决模型中不确定性问题,并采用遗传算法和粒子群算法来寻找算例的最优解。结果表明：在不同需求量和回收品质量的水平下企业成本有不同的变化;随着供应中断概率的增加,平均总成本也随之增加。因此,再制造企业在面临需求量和回收品质量模糊不确定的环境时,应尽量避免供应中断,制定符合企业发展的运作计划。     

按件供应模式应用研究

对进口件（即KD件）按件供应与成组供应模式进行了对比分析，结合按件供应在启动、运行期间的工作特点，对神龙公司按件供应管理模式进行了分析和探讨，分析了KD件按件供应中MRPⅡ与JIT的结合应用以及按件供应模式的信息组织方式，提出了缩短订货期、降低库存、提高市场需求响应度的具体建议，并在实际运用中取得了显著的经济效益和管理效应。     

考虑失效相关性的普通药品供应中断模型

为更好地预防和解决普通药品供应链的中断问题,构建一个稳健可靠的中断模型来为顾客找到最为可靠的供应商是一条行之有效的途径。针对基于供应商独立性假设带来的局限性问题,在对供应商间的相关性定性分析的基础上,运用可靠性理论,构造了供应商间相关性的定量模型,进而根据普通药品的特性提出了基于失效相关性的普通药品供应中断模型。研究表明,通过最小化期望总成本,能为顾客找到最为可靠的供应商,从而能有效降低普通药品供应链的中断风险,同时解决了基于供应商独立性假设所带来的局限性问题,使所得结论更为可靠。     

我国电力安全供应保障策略研究

电力事关国计民生、国家安全,在推进碳达峰、碳中和过程中确保电力安全稳定供应是必须审慎面对的重大问题;针对性分析我国电力供应的薄弱环节与面临挑战,构建新时期电力安全供应保障体系,是切实推动电力安全供应保障能力现代化、助力经济社会高质量发展的重要支撑。本文梳理了电力安全供应研究进展,以为开展电力安全供应保障研究提供基础认知;分析了我国电力安全供应现状,研判了“十四五”时期及中长期我国电力安全供应形势;结合近期发生的限电事件,总结了我国电力供应存在的主要问题及挑战。研究提出了保障电力安全供应需采取的坚持安全第一、坚持低碳化路径、坚持市场化改革方向、坚持科技创新核心作用等原则,构建了电力安全供应保障体系的“三步走”发展步骤。为此建议,增强电力供应保障能力、筑牢电力供应安全根基,发挥需求侧关键作用、提升电力供应本质安全水平,构建以数字化技术为支撑的新一代电力安全供应技术体系,完善市场体系和市场机制、形成全员参与的电力安全生态。     

JIT采购的园区供应模式分析

运用系统优化思想和数学方法,在EOQ模型中引入物流成本因素,指出在传统的供应方式下,运输成本与库存成本存在替代性,小批量供应达不到经济订购批量.采用园区供应和制造商取货制后,通过合理调度,消除了运输成本与库存成本的替代性,小批量供应能够达到经济订购批量.特别地,采用本地园区供应模式,可以实现同期供货,供应链得以按照彻底的JIT方式生产.     

The optimal technology licensing strategy under supply disruption

We study the problem of whether and how a patent-holding firm (supplier S1) should license its technology patent to a potential rival (supplier S2). If the license is given, the two suppliers both produce a critical component for their downstream manufacturer simultaneously (sequentially) when the manufacturer adopts a dual (contingent) sourcing mode. However, both suppliers face risks of complete supply disruptions. In the study, we examine how the supply risk affects S1's technology licensing willingness and under which conditions royalty or fixed-fee licensing is its optimal strategy. The results show that when the manufacturer adopts contingent sourcing, S1 is always willing to license its technology to S2 and fixed-fee licensing is the optimal strategy. However, when dual sourcing is adopted, either royalty and fixed-fee licensing could be S1's optimal licensing strategy, depending on the reliability degree of the suppliers’ productions. Our findings extend the conclusion from previous researchers about royalty and fixed-fee licensing in a Cournot duopoly model.     

Flexible strategies under supply disruption: the interplay between contingent sourcing and responsive pricing

Due to possible supply disruptions because of a low-cost unreliable supplier, a firm may use a high-cost reliable supplier as an additional regular supplier (dual sourcing) or an emergency backup supplier with an extra emergency cost (contingent sourcing). We consider the firm's sourcing problem when the pricing decision is made before any supply uncertainty is resolved (committed pricing) or after the supply state is realised (responsive pricing). By comparing the relative value of responsive pricing in contingent sourcing to that in dual sourcing, we study the relationship between contingent sourcing and responsive pricing in mitigating supply disruption risks. We show that the emergency cost and potential lost sales caused by disruption probability jointly impact the interplay of these two strategies. More specifically, when the emergency cost is low and the potential lost sales are lower under contingent sourcing than that under dual sourcing, contingent sourcing and responsive pricing are substitutes; otherwise, they are complements. Furthermore, we examine how disrupted capacity, i.e. the quantity that the unreliable supplier can deliver when disrupted, impacts the interplay, and find that the probability of the substitution relationship becomes higher when the disrupted capacity increases. We also find that under committed pricing, contingent sourcing is not optimal for any value of disruption probability when the emergency cost is high, a phenomenon that does not exist under responsive pricing.     

供需双重不确定下链与链竞争的博弈分析

研究了分别由1个零售商和1个供应商构成的两条供应链之间的竞争问题,讨论了供应中断风险和需求不确定对于竞争的供应链的影响。分析了协调竞争、混合竞争、非协调竞争3种供应链结构下的最优订货量和契约参数。研究发现在一定的收益共享系数范围,供应链协调竞争成立。最后通过数值计算,分析了参数对最优订货量的影响,得到了管理启示。     

市场需求预测偏差下供应链协调

分两阶段研究了产品市场需求预测存在偏差情况下供应链协调问题。第一阶段，给出市场需求预测下的最优生产批量；第二阶段，首先给出需求预测偏差下的最优供给批量和供应链整体最考掣润，然后提出一种使供应链整体最大利润得以实现的协调机制。最后给出算例加以说明。     

损失厌恶供应链应对突变风险的收益共享契约

研究一个风险中性的供应商和具有损失厌恶特性的零售商组成的二阶供应链,在供应链遭遇突变风险的情况下,收益共享契约能否协调该供应链的问题。利用损失厌恶模型对零售商的损失厌恶程度进行了刻画,分别讨论了突变风险发生后分散和集中控制的情况下供应链的整体利润。研究发现,收益共享契约能够协调该供应链,并且零售商的损失厌恶程度越强,契约参数的上下限越大。通过数值算例的方法对上述结论进行了验证,且发现当突变风险导致需求发生变动时,零售商的效用和供应商的利润呈反方向变化。     

Strategic cooperation with a backup supplier for the mitigation of supply disruptions

We study optimal sourcing decisions for a firm with a dedicated supplier and a backup supplier. The dedicated supplier charges a lower wholesale price but faces a potential disruption risk. The backup supplier is assumed to be perfectly reliable but charges a higher wholesale price. The primary question we address is how the firm should cooperate with the backup supplier to hedge against the disruption risk. We consider three common cooperation options: advance purchase, reservation and contingency purchase. Our basic results show that the firm should choose advance purchase strategy if the disruption probability is high, while contingency purchase strategy benefits the firm more if the disruption probability is low. Under an intermediate disruption probability, the firm should choose reservation strategy only if the reservation fee is sufficiently low. Then, we explore the optimal backup strategy under partial disruption risk. The results show that the advance purchase and the reservation strategy should be adopted more widely when the dedicated supplier guarantees a relatively high yield rate after disruption.     

供应链协同库存策略分析

采用形式化描述的方式,对不同的协同库存策略进行了统一和完整的分类,从产品交付、信息传递和库存决策3个方面得到了9种原子形式的协同库存策略及策略集合,同时在分类的基础上对协同策略的集成度进行了分析.采用案例分析的方法分析了多个企业实际应用协同库存策略的情况,对文中提出的模型和分类进行了验证.研究结果使得企业对各种协同库存策略能够有清晰的认识,在明确企业集成意向的情况下,可以对比文章给出的模型选择相应的库存策略.     

Blockchain adoption or contingent sourcing? Advancing food supply chain resilience in the post-pandemic era

In the post-pandemic era, food supply chains and firms therein are facing unprecedented severe challenges, because once infection is detected, numerous products must be recalled or abandoned, and both suppliers and retailers in the supply chain suffer enormous loss. To survive under the pandemic, retailers have adopted different sourcing strategies, such as contingent sourcing, which, in turn, affect the upstream suppliers and hence the resilience of the whole supply chain. With the rapid development of digital technologies, retailers nowadays can utilize blockchain as a reliable and efficient way to reduce product risk and hence advance the resilience of food supply chains by improving product traceability and inspection accuracy, and making sourcing transparent. In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to investigate the interrelation between the retailer’s decisions on blockchain adoption and sourcing strategies. We consider that a retailer originally orders from a risky supplier while conducting an imperfect inspection to detect infected products before selling. The retailer may speculatively keep on ordering from the risky supplier or adopt contingent sourcing by ordering from an alternative safe supplier. The retailer also has an option to implement blockchain to improve the inspection accuracy and product traceability. We derive the optimal retail prices under different sourcing strategies with and without blockchain adoption and then analyze the incentives for sourcing strategy and blockchain adoption. Then, we identify the conditions of an all-win situation for food retailer, supplier, supply chain resilience, and consumers with/without government subsidy. Finally, we extend to consider the situation that some consumers have health-safety concerns and preferences for blockchain adoption.