从LCOE与电价关系角度实证研究光伏发电项目的平价上网路径

以中国不同地区的20个光伏发电项目为样本,计算项目的平准化度电成本(LCOE),将计算得到的不含税LCOE修正为含税LCOE,并与项目的核准电价、当地的脱硫煤标杆电价对标,分析含税LCOE与核准电价之间的变化趋势;对LCOE进行敏感性分析,将平价上网时代含税LCOE降幅与核准电价降幅趋势进行对比分析,并针对平价上网时代...     

基于实物期权的光伏电站项目LCOE分析

在分析关于光伏电站项目当前政策的基础上,建立了对标燃煤标杆上网电价的光伏发电平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型,并与实物期权方法相结合,考虑项目延迟期权与放弃期权的复合实物期权价值,构建了全面反映项目竞争力价值的扩展平准化度电成本(extended levelized cost of energy,ELCOE)模型,并以某光伏电站项目为例进行了分析。分析结果表明：平价上网机制下,建立的LCOE模型能够直接对标燃煤标杆上网电价,且ELCOE模型考虑了光伏电站项目未来收益的不确定性与管理灵活性,弥补了LCOE法忽略项目未来不确定性价值的不足,避免决策失误。     

海上风电上网电价政策出台

<正>日前,国家发展改革委公布《关于海上风电上网电价政策的通知》(以下简称《通知》)。《通知》规定,为促进海上风电产业健康发展,鼓励优先开发优质资源,对非招标的海上风电项目,区分潮间带风电和近海风电两种类型确定上网电价。2017年以前(不含2017年)投运的近海风电项目上网电价为0.85元/kW·h(含税,下同),潮间带风电项目上网电价为0.75元/kW·h。2017年及以后投运的海上风电项目上网电价,发改委将根据海上风电技术进步和项目建设成本变化,结合特许权招投标情况研究制定。     

资讯

正发改价格[2014]1216号:国家发改委确定海上风电上网电价6月5日,国家发改委下发《关于海上风电上网电价政策的通知》(简称《通知》)对非招标的海上风电项目,区分潮间带风电和近海风电两种类型确定上网电价。2017年以前(不含2017年)投运的近海风电项目上网电价为每千瓦时0.85元(含税,下同),潮间带风电项目上网电价为每千瓦时0.75元。此外,《通知》还鼓励通过特许权招标等市场竞争     

新能源项目LCOE度电成本与IRR内部收益率的等效性分析

[目的]随着国内新能源发电行业的发展,补贴退坡和资源竞争配置等政策的实施,全生命周期平准化发电成本(LCOE)越来越被大家关注和使用,但行业内对LCOE的计算标准不一,文章主要为了解析其与内部收益率(IRR)的关系,来提高大家对LCOE度电的认识以及规范LCOE度电成本的使用。[方法]文章先对两者的特点和应用场景做了分析,然后通过两者计算公式的简化和转换,分析固定IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本在模型上的差异和联系。最后通过某海上风电的实例分析,计算两者结果的实际差距,并分析造成这些差异的因素及敏感性。[结果]从结果来看,简化条件后两者的计算模型十分接近,两者差异仅为所得税。通过实例分析,造成IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本差异的因素有建设期增值税抵扣、增值税和所得税的税后优惠、附加税、融资情况,且这些因素的影响方向和程度都不同。可以认为,IRR内部收益率反算电价与LCOE度电成本在原理上是近似的,但受到国内财税制度的影响,输入参数、边界条件的增加使得两者出现了差异。[结论]建议通过主管部门、行业协会等对LCOE进行适当的本地化修正,并结合环境影响成本和电力系统影响成本,使其可以横向比...     

把电力环保“蛋糕”做大

日常生活中，一分五是谁都不会放在眼里的。但四月下旬，国家发改委在明确京津唐电网新投产机组的上网电价机制时，给这0．015元赋予了新的含义。即已安装脱硫环保设施的新投产燃煤机组含税上网电价比未安装脱硫环保设施的新投产燃煤机组含税上网电价高出0．015元。     

探索光伏发电上网电价再迈一大步

<正>4月2日,国家发改委对宁夏太阳山等四个太阳能光伏电站临时上网电价作出批复:一、核定宁夏发电集团太阳山光伏电站一期、宁夏中节能太阳山光伏电站一期、华电宁夏宁东光伏电站、宁夏中节能石嘴山光伏电站一期发电项目临时上网电价为1.15元/kWh(含税);二、以上电价自光伏电站投入商业运营之日起执行,高出当地脱硫燃煤机组标杆上网电价的部分纳入全国可再生能源电价附加分摊。     

基于碳减排收入的风电成本电价研究

结合清洁能源发展机制(CDM)建立了净现值财务评价模型,以2010年注册为CDM项目的内蒙古风电场财务数据作为研究样本计算成本电价,并运用敏感性分析探究影响我国风电成本电价的因素。根据模型比较含碳减排收入和不含碳减排收入下的风电成本电价,分析两种情况下静态投资额、上网发电量、运营维护费用和贷款利率等因素对我国风电成本电价的影响程度,认为CDM是促进我国风电产业发展的重要因素,并与静态投资额、年上网发电量共同构成影响我国风电成本电价的主要因素。随着未来各敏感性因素的变化,我国风电成本价格将具备与火电成本价格竞争的可能性。     

行业资讯

正山东省2018年光伏上网电价为0.75元/kWh山东省物价局近日发布2018年山东省光伏上网电价:1光伏电站2018年1月1日以后纳入财政补贴年度规模管理的光伏电站,上网电价为0.75元/kWh(含税,下同)。2分布式光伏发电项目1)2018年1月1日起投运的"自发自用、余量上网"模式的分布式光伏发电项目,全电量补贴标准为0.37元/kWh。2)2018年1月1日起投运的"全额上网"模式的分布式光伏发电项目,上网电价为0.75元/kWh。3"光伏扶贫"项目纳入国家年度建设规模的村级电站(0.5 MW     

光伏发电项目LCOE的研究与思考

针对光伏发电项目的平准化度电成本(LCOE)展开研究,介绍了其相关概念,分析了其各个影响因素;并有针对性地提出了降低LCOE的相关方法和建议。研究结果显示：1)在目前的市场行情下,光伏发电项目LCOE的3个组成部分中,初始投资部分LCOE的占比最大,达到了72%～76%;2)发电量是项目LCOE非常敏感的影响因素,应寻找光照资源条件较好的地区建设光伏发电项目,并且减少弃光率,提升上网电量,有助于降低项目LCOE;3)折现率对项目LCOE的影响很大,但其与项目本身无关,主要取决于行业的基准收益率和项目投资者设定的项目预期收益率;4)光伏发电系统年衰减率和运维成本对项目LCOE的影响不大;5)寻找融资利率低的贷款可在一定程度上降低项目LCOE;6)降低项目初始投资和提升发电量是降低项目LCOE最主要的两个途径,也是光伏工作者最需要努力的两个方向。以期研究结果可为光伏发电技术的发展和光伏发电项目的开发建设提供参考。     

Supplementing an emissions tax by a feed-in tariff for renewable electricity to address learning spillovers

In the presence of learning spillovers related to renewable energy technologies, an optimal strategy to mitigate climate change should complement an emissions tax by a subsidy for renewables. This article addresses the question how such subsidy should be designed. It is shown that the widely-used approach of a revenue-neutral fixed feed-in tariff can yield an optimal outcome under restrictive conditions only. It has to be adapted continuously as the electricity price changes. Moreover, funding the tariff by a surcharge on the electricity price has important implications for the design of the emission tax. The optimal tax rate has to be below the Pigovian level, differentiated across fossil fuels and adapted over time as the patterns of technological development change. These requirements may pose a formidable challenge for practical decision-making. However, it is important to point out that the eventual choices made with respect to the design and funding of a feed-in tariff have to be based on a careful and more comprehensive policy assessment, including, inter alia, economic effects beyond the electricity sector and existing institutional constraints.     

Parametric cost–benefit analysis for the installation of photovoltaic parks in the island of Cyprus

In this work a feasibility study is carried out in order to investigate whether the installation of large photovoltaic (PV) parks in Cyprus, in the absence of relevant feed-in tariff or other measures, is economically feasible. The study takes into account the available solar potential of the island of Cyprus as well as all available data concerning current renewable energy sources (RES) policy of the Cyprus Government and the current RES electricity purchasing tariff from Electricity Authority of Cyprus. In order to identify the least-cost feasible option for the installation of 1 MW PV park a parametric cost–benefit analysis is carried out by varying parameters such as PV park orientation, PV park capital investment, carbon dioxide emission trading system price, etc. For all above cases the electricity unit cost or benefit before tax, as well as after-tax cash flow, net present value, internal rate of return and payback period are calculated. The results indicate that capital expenditure of the PV park is a critical parameter for the viability of the project when no feed-in tariff is available.     

Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development

A comparison of support schemes for market-based deployment of renewable energy in the UK and Germany shows that the feed-in tariff reduces costs to consumers and results in larger deployment. A survey among project developers suggests two explanations: (1) Site selection presents the biggest obstacle under the feed-in tariff. Uncertain financing of other schemes reduces efforts at initial project stages and planning permits become a major obstacle. (2) Project developers do not compete in price but for good sites under the feed-in tariff. Most importantly, turbine producers and construction services contribute to most of the costs, and face at least equal levels of competition under the feed-in tariff.     

A review on feed-in tariff in Australia,what it is now and what it should be

The objective of this paper is to review the feed-in tariffs introduced and now are being implemented in different states and territories of Australia for the grid-connected small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. A further objective is to take a closer look at the production cost of these solar PV systems to compare with the introduced feed-in tariffs. The review results show that the gap between production cost of PV electricity and the feed-in tariff is relatively high, particularly in those states, were feed-in tariff based on net metering is implemented.     

海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型研究

国内利用盈亏平衡原理,建立最小经济储量规模模型应用成熟,而海外油气勘探项目由于财税条款复杂,盈亏平衡法在最小经济储量计算中的应用还是空白。在分析海外项目矿税制、产品分成制合同者收入、投资、税金等特点的基础上,力图建立合同者收入、投资、成本、税金等和储量的数学关系。假定成本回收油全部用来回收成本,较好地处理了产品分成制下合同者的收入问题;引入单位综合税金,解决海外油气项目复杂的税金问题;通过建立最小储量规模和利润油气分成系数之间的迭代计算,较好地处理滑动的分成系数和最小储量规模的关系。在此基础上,依据盈亏平衡、投入产出相等原理,建立海外勘探项目最小经济储量规模盈亏平衡模型,并给出单位综合税金、利润油气分成系数等主要参数的取值原则。利用模型,计算了中国石化某海外天然气勘探项目在不同资金时间价值下的最小油气储量规模,并与现金流法得到的最小储量规模结果进行比较,对盈亏平衡模型进行了讨论。     

Economics of co-firing coal and biomass: An application to Western Canada

Co-firing biomass and coal in retrofitted power plants is an efficient means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. Under IPCC reporting rules, the impacts of energy produced from biomass would not be reported in the energy sector, thereby effectively lowering the emission intensity of a power plant. In this study, a carbon tax is compared to a feed-in tariff for incentivizing conversion of coal plants to co-fire with biomass. In the application, a model of the Alberta electrical grid with an intertie to British Columbia is linked to a fiber transportation model for these provinces. Results indicate that there is an upper threshold on a carbon tax after which retrofitting of coal plants is less efficient than increasing natural gas generating capacity. This is not the case with a feed-in tariff as it specifically targets biomass energy. Although the optimal generating mix achieved with a carbon tax leads to lower aggregate emissions than the mix achieved using a feed-in tariff, it will result in higher average generating costs. Results indicate that it is optimal for Alberta to retrofit approximately 500 MW of current coal capacity (8.6%) to co-fire with biomass, although Alberta wood pellet production acts as a constraint on further conversions.     

A method for the correction of the feed-in tariff price for cogeneration based on a comparison between Croatia and EU Member States

The European Commission has adopted Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration, which the EU Member States, as well as candidates including Croatia, were obliged to accept. Among other terms and conditions, the Directive requires certain support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariff prices and premiums added to market electricity prices. In this paper, the cost effectiveness of selling electricity at the feed-in tariff prices in the selected EU Member States is compared to selling it on the European electricity market, with or without premiums. The results of this comparison will indicate whether correction of the Croatian feed-in tariff price to a higher value would be justified. The cost effectiveness ratio of a cogeneration unit upgraded with mean reverting and jump diffusion processes is used for comparison. At the end of this paper, a method is suggested for the correction of feed-in tariff prices, with examples of corrected prices for the years 2008 and 2009. Such corrections have been proven to be justified and are compared to the feed-in tariff prices in most of the selected EU Member States.     

A market for renewable energy credits in the Indian power sector

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources in India has been promoted through a host of fiscal policies and preferential tariff for electricity produced from the same. The fiscal policies include tax incentives and purchase of electricity generated through renewable energy sources. The enactment of the Electricity Act 2003 (the Act) has lent further support to renewable energy by stipulating purchase of a certain percentage of the power procurement by distribution utilities from renewable energy sources. The renewable portfolio obligation as well as the feed-in tariff for power procurement has been specified by a number of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) for the respective state under their jurisdiction. A feed-in tariff determined through a cost-plus approach under a rate of return framework lacks incentive for cost minimisation and does not encourage optimal utilisation of renewable energy resources in the country. Such regulatory provisions differ across states.The prevalent practice of fixing a renewable portfolio obligation along with cost-based feed-in tariffs disregards economic efficiency. The paper proposes nationally tradable renewable energy credits scheme for achieving the targets set by the respective SERCs as renewable portfolio obligation. This would reduce the cost of compliance to a renewable portfolio obligation, and would encourage efficient resource utilisation and investment in appropriate technologies. The paper highlights its advantages and implementation issues. This paper discusses regulatory developments for promotion of renewable energy in various Indian states. The paper also identifies a number of issues related to regulations concerning renewable portfolio obligation.     

A methodology for calculating the levelized cost of electricity in nuclear power systems with fuel recycling

In this paper we show how the traditional definition of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be extended to alternative nuclear fuel cycles in which elements of the fuel are recycled. In particular, we define the LCOE for a cycle with full actinide recycling in fast reactors in which elements of the fuel are reused an indefinite number of times. To our knowledge, ours is the first LCOE formula for this cycle. Others have approached the task of evaluating this cycle using an ‘equilibrium cost’ concept that is different from a levelized cost. We also show how the LCOE implies a unique price for the recycled elements. This price reflects the ultimate cost of waste disposal postponed through the recycling, as well as other costs in the cycle. We demonstrate the methodology by estimating the LCOE for three classic nuclear fuel cycles: (i) the traditional Once-Through Cycle, (ii) a Twice-Through Cycle, and (iii) a Fast Reactor Recycle. Given our chosen input parameters, we show that the ‘equilibrium cost’ is typically larger than the levelized cost, and we explain why.