预防接种情况下非线性饱和接触率SIR流行病模型动力学性态研究

研究了一类预防接种情况下具有一般非线性饱和接触率SIR流行病模型动力学性态。得到决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的基本再生数。当基本再生数小于等于1时，仅存在无病平衡态：当基本再生数大于1时，除存在无病平衡态外，还存在惟一的地方病平衡态。利用Hurwitz判据、Liapunov-Lasalle不变集原理得到各个平衡态局部渐近稳定及无病平衡态全局渐近稳定的条件。特别地。当传染率为双线性时，无病平衡态及地方病平衡态全局渐近稳定。     

非线性高维自治微分系统 SEIQR 流行病模型全局稳定性

研究具有隔离仓室及饱和接触率的非线性高维自治微分系统SEIQR流行病传播数学模型,得到疾病绝灭与否的阈值一基本再生数R_0,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性及全局渐近稳定性,揭示了隔离对疾病控制的积极作用,推广了已有的研究结果。     

具有一般形式非线性饱和传染率染病年龄结构SIS模型渐近分析

：研究一类具有一般形式非线性饱和传染率染病年龄结构SIS流行病传播数学模型动力学性态,得到疾病绝灭和持续生存的阈值条件——基本再生数。当基本再生数小于或等于1时,仅存在无病平衡点,且在其小于1的情况下,无病平衡点全局渐遗稳定,疾病将逐渐消除;当基本再生数大于1时,存在不稳定的无病平衡点和唯一的局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点,疾病将持续存在。已有的两类模型可视为本模型的特例,其相关结论可作为本文的推论。     

一类含多时滞和扩散项的非标准离散模型

建立了一类以媒体效应作为主要预防传染病传播手段、并且含有多时滞和扩散项的传染病连续模型,并证明了该连续模型平衡点的全局稳定性。其次,利用非标准有限差分方法对该连续模型进行离散,离散后的模型具有和原连续模型一致的动力学性质。通过构造适当的李雅普诺夫函数,证明离散模型的平衡点在一定条件下也都是全局渐近稳定的。最后,数值模拟验证了理论结果。     

一类具有非线性发生率的SEIR传染病模型的全局稳定性分析

本文对一类具有非线性发生率的SEIR传染病模型进行了研究.确定了决定疾病灭绝或持续存在的阈值-基本再生数,并分析了模型的平衡点的存在性;通过构造恰当的Lyapunov函数,运用La Salle不变性原理证明了当基本再生数小于或等于1时,无病平衡点是全局渐进稳定的;利用Lyapunov直接方法证明了当基本再生数大于1时,地方病平衡点是全局渐进稳定的.最后,将发生率具体化用数值模拟验证了所得理论分析结果的正确性.     

具有时滞和旅途过程中有传染的两斑块SIS模型的全局动力学

本文建立了一个具有时滞的SI S模型,研究了旅途过程中疾病的传染.得到了基本再生数.通过线性化方法和比较原理,证明了当基本再生数小于1时无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病绝灭.当基本再生数大于1时,系统存在唯一的全局吸引的地方病平衡点,且疾病持续生存.数值模拟验证了扩散率对疾病传播的影响.分析了基本再生数对扩散率的依赖性.     

一个具有暂时免疫和非线性接触率的SIS流行病模型的分析

本文研究一个具有时滞,一般接触率,常数出生和疾病引起死亡的流行病模型.假设时滞表示暂时免疫期,即恢复者再次变成易感者所需要的时间,同时在模型中考虑了对易感者和恢复者的接种.本文得到了基本再生数R0.分析了模型的无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性.通过Hurwitz准则,研究了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性.通过Liapunov泛函和Lasalle不变原理,证明了无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性及在双线性接触率的情况下地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.研究结果表明:R0与对易感者的有效接种率P有关,并且通过增加接种率P可以根除疾病.最后给出了数值模拟.     

一类具有垂直传播的HIV模型的稳定性分析

根据艾滋病的传播规律,本文建立了一类传染病模型.在模型中,HIV携带者分为幼年和成年两类,HIV可垂直传染,艾滋病患者有额外死亡.我们用再生矩阵求出了模型的基本再生数,并得出当基本再生数小于1时,模型只有无病平衡点,而当基本再生数大于1时,模型还有地方病平衡点.最后,应用第二加性复合矩阵等理论,文中证明了各平衡点全局渐近稳定性.     

具有一般传染率的 SIRS 年龄结构模型的分支研究

考虑到年龄在一些传染病流行过程中的重要影响,建立了一个具有一般传染率的 SIRS 年龄结构仓室模型。通过将模型改写为抽象柯西问题并利用 Hille-Yosida 算子相关定理,分析了模型的动力学性态,讨论了平衡点的稳定性以及平衡点失稳时产生 Hopf 分支的条件。结果表明,当基本再生数小于 1 时,免疫年龄不影响无病平衡点的全局稳定性;当基本再生数大于 1 时,免疫年龄扰动导致地方病平衡点的稳定性改变,从而产生 Hopf 分支。同时,数值模拟验证了理论结果并显示了免疫年龄对模型动力学性态的影响。     

带有种群密度制约接触率的SIR流行病模型的全局分析

本文研究了两类具有种群密度制约接触率的SIR流行病模型,其生态学结构分别为常数输／Logistic出生。可以证明两模型均存在在强阈值现象,阈值参数即模型的基本再生数,它决定了疾病的绝灭和流行也决定了模型的全局性态。为了证明地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,对具有常数输入的SIR模型,引入了一个变量代换将三维模型转化为具有极限方程的二维渐近自治系统;对具有Logistic出生的SIR模型,构造了Lyapunov函数。     

Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models.

Demographic stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission of infection can affect the dynamics of host-vector disease systems in important ways. We discuss the use of analytic techniques to assess the impact of demographic stochasticity in both well-mixed and heterogeneous settings. Disease invasion probabilities can be calculated using branching process methodology. We review the use of this theory for host-vector infections and examine its use in the face of heterogeneous transmission. Situations in which there is a marked asymmetry in transmission between host and vector are seen to be of particular interest. For endemic infections, stochasticity leads to variation in prevalence about the endemic level. If these fluctuations are large enough, disease extinction can occur via endemic fade-out. We develop moment equations that quantify the impact of stochasticity, providing insight into the likelihood of stochastic extinction. We frame our discussion in terms of the simple Ross malaria model, but discuss extensions to more realistic host-vector models.     

Deterministic and Stochastic Fractional-Order Hastings-Powell Food Chain Model

In this paper, a deterministic and stochastic fractional-order model of the tri-trophic food chain model incorporating harvesting is proposed and analysed. The interaction between prey, middle predator and top predator population is investigated. In order to clarify the characteristics of the proposed model, the analysis of existence, uniqueness, non-negativity and boundedness of the solutions of the proposed model are examined. Some sufficient conditions that ensure the local and global stability of equilibrium points are obtained. By using stability analysis of the fractional-order system, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number , the predator free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. The occurrence of local bifurcation near the equilibrium points is investigated with the help of Sotomayor’s theorem. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical findings. The impact of harvesting on prey and the middle predator is studied. We conclude that harvesting parameters can control the dynamics of the middle predator. A numerical approximation method is developed for the proposed stochastic fractional-order model.     

具有年龄结构的接种流行病模型的稳定性

研究了一个具有年龄结构的接种SIS流行病模型渐近性态,得到了正平衡解存在及其局部渐近稳定的充分条件。     

Global stability of infection‐free state and endemic infection state of a modified human immunodeficiency virus infection model

This study proposes a modified human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection differential equation model with a saturated infection rate. This model has an infection‐free equilibrium point and an endemic infection equilibrium point. Using Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principle shows that if the model’s basic reproductive number R ₀ < 1, the infection‐free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, otherwise the endemic infection equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. It is shown that a forward bifurcation will occur when R ₀ = 1. The basic reproductive number R ₀ of the modified model is independent of plasma total CD4⁺ T cell counts and thus the modified model is more reasonable than the original model proposed by Buonomo and Vargas‐De‐León. Based on the clinical data from HIV drug resistance database of Stanford University, using the proposed model simulates the dynamics of two group patients’ anti‐HIV infection treatments. The simulation results have shown that the first 4 weeks’ treatments made the two group patients’ R′ ₀ < 1, respectively. After the period, drug resistance made the two group patients’ R′ ₀ > 1. The results explain why the two group patients’ mean CD4⁺ T cell counts raised and mean HIV RNA levels declined in the first period, but contrary in the following weeks.Inspec keywords: microorganisms, cellular biophysics, differential equations, Lyapunov methods, blood, drugs, patient treatment, RNAOther keywords: global stability, infection‐free state, endemic infection state, modified human immunodeficiency virus infection model, HIV, differential equation model, saturated infection rate, infection‐free equilibrium point, endemic infection equilibrium point, Lyapunov functions, LaSalle invariance principle, forward bifurcation, plasma total CD4⁺ T cell counts, HIV drug resistance database, mean HIV RNA levels     

Rates of coalescence for common epidemiological models at equilibrium

Coalescent theory provides a mathematical framework for quantitatively interpreting gene genealogies. With the increased availability of molecular sequence data, disease ecologists now regularly apply this body of theory to viral phylogenies, most commonly in attempts to reconstruct demographic histories of infected individuals and to estimate parameters such as the basic reproduction number. However, with few exceptions, the mathematical expressions at the core of coalescent theory have not been explicitly linked to the structure of epidemiological models, which are commonly used to mathematically describe the transmission dynamics of a pathogen. Here, we aim to make progress towards establishing this link by presenting a general approach for deriving a model''s rate of coalescence under the assumption that the disease dynamics are at their endemic equilibrium. We apply this approach to four common families of epidemiological models: standard susceptible-infected-susceptible/susceptible-infected-recovered/susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible models, models with individual heterogeneity in infectivity, models with an exposed but not yet infectious class and models with variable distributions of the infectious period. These results improve our understanding of how epidemiological processes shape viral genealogies, as well as how these processes affect levels of viral diversity and rates of genetic drift. Finally, we discuss how a subset of these coalescent rate expressions can be used for phylodynamic inference in non-equilibrium settings. For the ones that are limited to equilibrium conditions, we also discuss why this is the case. These results, therefore, point towards necessary future work while providing intuition on how epidemiological characteristics of the infection process impact gene genealogies.     

带常数输入率TB模型的全局稳定性

研究了各分类均具有常数输入率先的一个TB模型的全局稳定性。根据广义的Bendixson判据，证明了当输入中含有受感染者时，模型不存在无病平衡点而具有唯一的地方病平衡点。当感染者的治愈率较小时，证明了该平衡点的全局渐近稳定性。     

Analysis and simulation of an Adefovir anti‐hepatitis B virus infection therapy immune model with alanine aminotransferase

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection models and anti‐HBV infection therapy models have been set up to understand and explain clinical phenomena. Many of these models have been proposed based on Zeuzem et al. and Nowak et al.''s basic virus infection model (BVIM). Some references have pointed out that the basic infection reproductive number of the BVIM is biologically questionable and gave the modified models with standard mass action incidences. This study describes one anti‐HBV therapy immune model with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) based on standard mass action incidences. There are two basic infection reproductive numbers R ₀ and R ₁ in the model. It is proved that if R ₀ < 1 and R ₁ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable, respectively. For the endemic equilibrium, simulation shows that if R ₁ > 1, it may be also globally asymptotically stable. Simulations based on clinical data of HBV DNA and ALT can explain some clinical phenomena. Simulations of the correlation between liver cells, HBV DNA, cytotoxic T lymphocytes and ALT are also given.Inspec keywords: blood, cellular biophysics, diseases, DNA, enzymes, liver, microorganisms, molecular biophysics, patient treatmentOther keywords: Adefovir antihepatitis B virus infection therapy immune model analysis, Adefovir antihepatitis B virus infection therapy immune model simulation, alanine aminotransferase, clinical phenomena, basic infection reproductive number, standard mass action incidences, disease free equilibrium, asymptotic stability, endemic equilibrium, HBV DNA, ALT, liver cells, cytotoxic T lymphocytes     

一个捕食者染病、食饵具有阶段结构的生态 - 流行病模型的稳定性

研究了一个捕食者染病且食饵具有阶段结构的生态 - 流行病模型的稳定性,考虑了捕食者对食饵的 Holling-II 型功能性反应函数,并讨论了由捕食者的妊娠期引起的时滞对模型稳定性的影响。通过计算特征方程的特征值,运用 Hurwitz 判定定理,得到了该模型的在平凡平衡点、捕食者灭绝平衡点、无病平衡点和正平衡点的局部稳定性,得到了正平衡点处存在 Hopf 分支的充分条件。通过构造 Lyapunov 泛函,运用 LaSall 不变集原理得到了该模型的平凡平衡点、捕食者灭绝平衡点、无病平衡点和正平衡点全局稳定的充分条件。     

关于日本血吸虫病动力学模型的周期解

日本血吸虫病是在我国广为流传的传染病和寄生虫病,对人体的健康造成了极其严重的危害,关于日本血吸虫病的传播动力学模型引起了广泛的讨论.在吴建宏等建立的双宿主日本血吸虫病的自治动力学模型的基础上,考虑到湖泊型地区钉螺数量的季节性变化因素,本文考察了相应的非自治的传播动力学模型,研究了其周期解的稳定性,并在此基础上进行了数值模拟.研究表明,在一定的参数条件下,无论开始时疾病传播情况如何,疾病终将趋于消亡;否则,在一定的初始条件下,疾病传播形成周期性的地方病.数值模拟发现,在一定的参数条件下,钉螺数量的季节性变化振幅充分大时,可使疾病趋于消亡;此外,同时对患病的人与牛进行治疗,也有利于使疾病消亡.本文中还研究了Barbour双宿主模型的非自治动力学模型,不仅对其周期解的稳定性进行了讨论,还得到该系统周期解的存在性条件.     

基于微粒群算法的资源均衡问题研究

为了更有效地解决工程项目管理中的资源均衡问题,将微粒群算法与工程项目资源均衡问题相结合,建立基于微粒群算法的工程项目资源均衡模型.其中对微粒群算法的相关参数进行了研究,对工程项目资源模型进行具体分析与设计,并采用计算机仿真设计方法.通过实例进一步验证基于微粒群算法解决资源均衡问题的可靠性和有效性.研究发现,一定程度上,它在解决资源均衡问题时较传统方法更为简单,参数设计与选择较容易,且取得了更优的结果.