Are small communities at risk of population loss?

Small communities almost universally worry about out-migration and the negative effects of out-migration on community viability. Using Oregon community-level data and applying the threshold estimation method of Hansen (Econometrica 68(3):575–603, 2000), we are able to identify population thresholds that distinguish small communities from their larger counterparts based on significant structural differences in factors affecting net migration. Our results suggest that smaller communities are more at risk of population decline than larger ones. After controlling for spatial spillovers from neighboring communities, the average net migration rate is 3 % in the larger communities (roughly above 5,000 population), 2 % in the mid-sized communities (roughly between 1,250 and 5,000) and $-3$  % in the smallest communities (roughly less than 1,250). Other things equal, geographic isolation from large cities and low wage rates provide some protection from net out-migration for the smallest communities, but even for the smallest places, a larger population base lowers the risk of net out-migration.     

Unmanaged heathland – A fire risk in subzero temperatures?

Parameters leading to the severe Flatanger and Frøya (Norway) January 2014 subzero wildfires, respectively burning 15 km² and 10 km² Atlantic heathlands (dominated by heather, Calluna vulgaris) and destroying 64 structures, have been analyzed. Traditional heathland management, including anthropogenic fire regimes, had not been performed in these areas over the last 50+ years. As a result, the vegetation composition consisted of degenerated old and woody Calluna stands, bushes and shrubs, with high amounts of accumulated (live and dead) biomass. Adiabatically heated subzero temperature easterlies dried the Calluna stands. When ignited, the lack of snow cover and the strong winds resulted in rapid fire spread. Rugged terrain, few hours of daylight at 64.4°N and the lack of roads and manmade fire lanes made controlling the fires very challenging. Drying experiments were conducted to learn how quickly Calluna plants dry at 20°C and 50% relative humidity from rain-wet conditions. Based on the surprisingly rapid drying of the lower (dead) canopy, vapor pressures and diffusion theory, it is concluded that the Flatanger and Frøya Calluna stands represented a severe fire risk within two days of exposure to 50% relative humidity air at 0°C. Young and more vigorous plants in the building phase (6–15 years old), as well as freeze drought damaged (typically some dead small branches) old but still live plants, showed different drying characteristics and dried more slowly. When understanding how degenerated Calluna stands, from Portugal to the Arctic Circle, dry in the wintertime, warnings may be issued when appropriate. This paper may also serve as input to discussions regarding the several-thousand-year tradition of prescribed burning versus potential raging wildfires in unmanaged Calluna stands.     

Formation,distribution and risk control of landslides in China

China is a country with a large population as well as frequent landslides. The formation and distribution of landslides in China are determined by its special topography, complex geological environment, active earthquake environment and unusual climate features. This paper analyzes the main features and distribution of 200 catastrophic landslides that occurred in China since 1900. The relationships among the distribution of landslides and topographic conditions, geological structure, climate features and st...     

A bid‐unbalancing method for lowering a contractor's financial risk

A method is presented for unbalancing bids and optimizing the allocation of overall project profits to individual activities by considering the financial parameters of a project (bid mark‐up and projected cash flow), in conjunction with lowering the exposure to possible financial disorder in the project. The method utilizes the general concept of entropy and a variant of it (hereby termed ‘monetary entropy’, H _M) as measures of a project's perceived level of disorder, in order to distribute the total bid mark‐up to the project activities. The entropy‐based bid‐unbalancing method seeks to minimize a possible financial disorder (the monetary entropy) resulting from limited monetary resources available to the project and from badly developed project cash flows. The intended primary users of the method are contractors during the initial bidding stage of a project.     

Internal surface condensation risk in façades of Spanish social dwellings

ABSTRACT

The poor maintenance of social dwellings causes the possible building deficiencies to be significantly increased, especially when most of these dwellings have been built before any thermal standard and without considering the effect of climate change. Façades are one of the building elements which are most degraded by the contact with the exterior, and surface condensation is the most common cause. This study applies the calculation of surface condensation from ISO 13788 to a representative case of social dwelling in Spain for all climate zones, both in the current and 2050 scenarios. Risks of corrosion, mould formation, and surface condensation were studied in nine different points of the façade, which were validated by in-situ measurements. The results determined that there was a greater risk of condensation or mould depending on the climate zone, and thermal resistance significantly influenced data variation in future scenarios. The results also showed that an adequate ventilation generally decreased risks, removing the risk of mould and surface condensation by 2050. To predict the results obtained, a model based on artificial neural networks was generated, and it could also be used to estimate risks in the future.     

Do we all face the same risk when bathing in the estuary?

With the development of coastal areas, microbial water quality is an emerging public health issue though few studies have focused on risks according to age. A survey was undertaken of faecal contamination in relation to recreational activities in the Peel Harvey estuarine system, Western Australia. Levels of exposure to contaminated water were estimated though social surveys. Follow-up was also conducted to estimate the incidence of disease associated with bathing in the estuary. Pathogen levels exceeded the guideline values recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) at most locations throughout the year. The social survey provided information about exposure of the population in age groups. Only 31% of the recreational users belonged to the healthy adult group upon which the WHO quantitative microbial risk assessment model is based. A correlation was established between microbial water quality and incidence of respiratory diseases for children as well as for adults. Exposure to recreational water increased the incidence of respiratory illnesses for the whole population almost by a factor 2. Behaviours which resulted in increased exposures were associated with increased incidence of illnesses were observed, particularly among children aged 11-15 yr, who exhibited the highest odd ratio (OR 4.23 [2.44-6.01], CI 95%, p=0.05). There is a need for combining epidemiology studies with risk assessment processes and complementing them with social surveys for understanding the risk of recreational activities to public health.     

A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams’ risk assessment: an application

Dams are civil engineering structures to hinder water flows. Criteria such as purpose, size and construction material are useful to categorise them. The latter is used to classify ‘earth dams’, which tend to have higher risk levels than other types. The failure of a dam leads to significant economic loss and usually to catastrophic impacts. In an effort to comprehensively examine the variables that influence earth dam breaks and describe their interactions, a model has been developed in such a way that it allows to assess risks and to prioritise the allocation of resources for maintenance activities. The research was carried out by systematically reviewing the literature, which led to the choice of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a tool for assessing risks. Using data from seven case studies in Mexico, a model was built, which helped to rank the dams under study, leading to results comparable with those reported in the literature. While the particular type of BN used and its quantification is presented more extensively in an accompanying paper, the model may be of interest for dam owners, managers, practitioners and academics on their efforts to manage earth dams’ risks.     

Unintentional residential fires caused by smoking-related materials: Who is at risk?

Discarded cigarettes have been reported consistently as the leading cause of unintentional residential fire deaths; however, little is known about the risk factors of unintentional residential fires caused by smoking-related materials (i.e. smoking material fires, SMFs). Detailed data was coded from coronial files and this study focused on the 215 unintentional residential fires in the database which involved only single fatalities, with eighty-five of these being SMFs. This study is unique in using odds ratio (OR) analyses to investigate the size and relative importance of risk factors associated with SMFs. Seven out of 17 variables tested were significantly associated with SMFs compared to Non-SMFs, including being asleep (OR =15.37), bedroom/ lounge room being the room of fire origin (OR =10.29), alcohol intake (OR =3.42), psychotropic and sedative drugs intake (OR =3.35), mental illness (OR =3.18), being aged between 18 and 65 (OR =2.57), and being male (OR =1.81). Tests for mediation effect of alcohol intake and being asleep further clarify the nature of the relationship between age group and SMFs. Results revealed that individuals who had died in SMFs were more likely to present with multiple impairments compared to those who had died in non-SMFs. Further, significant associations between mental illness, psychotropic and sedative drug intake and the risk of SMFs were found. The comparative role of these risk factors provides an evidence-base for SMF prevention programs.     

Sewage-effluent phosphorus: a greater risk to river eutrophication than agricultural phosphorus?

Phosphorus (P) concentrations from water quality monitoring at 54 UK river sites across seven major lowland catchment systems are examined in relation to eutrophication risk and to the relative importance of point and diffuse sources. The over-riding evidence indicates that point (effluent) rather than diffuse (agricultural) sources of phosphorus provide the most significant risk for river eutrophication, even in rural areas with high agricultural phosphorus losses. Traditionally, the relative importance of point and diffuse sources has been assessed from annual P flux budgets, which are often dominated by diffuse inputs in storm runoff from intensively managed agricultural land. However, the ecological risk associated with nuisance algal growth in rivers is largely linked to soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations during times of ecological sensitivity (spring/summer low-flow periods), when biological activity is at its highest. The relationships between SRP and total phosphorus (TP; total dissolved P+suspended particulate P) concentrations within UK rivers are evaluated in relation to flow and boron (B; a tracer of sewage effluent). SRP is the dominant P fraction (average 67% of TP) in all of the rivers monitored, with higher percentages at low flows. In most of the rivers the highest SRP concentrations occur under low-flow conditions and SRP concentrations are diluted as flows increase, which is indicative of point, rather than diffuse, sources. Strong positive correlations between SRP and B (also TP and B) across all the 54 river monitoring sites also confirm the primary importance of point source controls of phosphorus concentrations in these rivers, particularly during spring and summer low flows, which are times of greatest eutrophication risk. Particulate phosphorus (PP) may form a significant proportion of the phosphorus load to rivers, particularly during winter storm events, but this is of questionable relevance for river eutrophication. Although some of the agriculturally derived PP is retained as sediment on the river bed, in most cases this bed sediment showed potential for removal of SRP from the overlying river water during spring and summer low flows. Thus, bed sediments may well be helping to reduce SRP concentrations within the river at times of eutrophication risk. These findings have important implications for targeting environmental management controls for phosphorus more efficiently, in relation to the European Union Water Framework Directive requirements to maintain/improve the ecological quality of impacted lowland rivers. For the UK rivers examined here, our results demonstrate that an important starting point for reducing phosphorus concentrations to the levels approaching those required for ecological improvement, is to obtain better control over point source inputs, particularly small point sources discharging to ecologically sensitive rural/agricultural tributaries.     

Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners’ communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk management contributes to IT project success. In addition, this paper also investigates the validity of the assumptions on which risk management is based. The analysis leads to remarkable conclusions. Over the last 10 years, much has become known about what causes IT projects to fail. However, there is still very little empirical evidence that this knowledge is actually used in projects for managing risks in IT projects.     

Key technologies and risk management of deep tunnel construction at Jinping Ⅱ hydropower station

The four diversion tunnels at Jinping Ⅱ hydropower station represent the deepest underground project yet conducted in China, with an overburden depth of 1500-2000 m and a maximum depth of 2525 m.The tunnel structure was subjected to a maximum external water pressure of 10.22 MPa and the maximum single-point groundwater inflow of 7.3 m~3/s. The success of the project construction was related to numerous challenging issues such as the stability of the rock mass surrounding the deep tunnels, strong rockburst prevention and control, and the treatment of high-pressure, large-volume groundwater infiltration. During the construction period, a series of new technologies was developed for the purpose of risk control in the deep tunnel project. Nondestructive sampling and in-situ measurement technologies were employed to fully characterize the formation and development of excavation damaged zones(EDZs), and to evaluate the mechanical behaviors of deep rocks. The time effect of marble fracture propagation, the brittleeductileeplastic transition of marble, and the temporal development of rock mass fracture and damage induced by high geostress were characterized. The safe construction of deep tunnels was achieved under a high risk of strong rockburst using active measures, a support system comprised of lining, grouting, and external water pressure reduction techniques that addressed the coupled effect of high geostress, high external water pressure, and a comprehensive early-warning system. A complete set of technologies for the treatment of high-pressure and large-volume groundwater infiltration was developed. Monitoring results indicated that the Jinping II hydropower station has been generally stable since it was put into operation in 2014.     

Contractors’ perception of risk factors affecting cost overrun in building projects in Palestine

This study aims at identifying the risk factors affecting cost overrun in building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. To do so, 31 contractors working on building construction completed a structured questionnaire survey. Forty factors were identified through a literature review. These factors were grouped into five groups: cost estimating, construction items, construction parties, environmental, and financing. The results indicated that the top five affecting factors are fluctuation in currency exchange rate, project financing, contract management, level of competitors, and cost of materials. The findings can support the government in improving the regulations to meet the construction market needs, owners in planning and designing and evaluating policy, contractors and managers in planning and taking external and internal risks when costing and scheduling contracts, consultants in applying comprehensive contract information, and workers in conducting their day-to-day activities. The results will fill an important research and practice gap.     

Is a quantitative risk assessment of air quality in underground parking garages possible?

Little information is available about the health risks associated with time spent in underground parking garages. The objective of this study was to determine whether it is possible to quantify the health risks associated with these garages without epidemiologic data on the subject. We followed the standard procedure for health risk assessment. We searched the literature for pollutant concentrations in the air samples of underground parking garages, the hazards associated with their inhalation, and their toxicological reference values. Conditions of occupational and user exposure were estimated by scenarios and taken into account to discuss toxicological reference values by modifying (with Haber's law) the adjustment factors for exposure frequency and duration. Risk quantification was possible for 39 pollutants. Acute exposures to CO and NO2 exceed toxicological reference values, as does chronic exposure to benzene for threshold effects. The risk of a carcinogenic effect associated with benzene may be greater than 10(-5). Excess exposure to air pollution indicators (PM and NO2) is also elevated, judging by the WHO Air Quality Guidelines, and also when comparing to levels with reported effects in epidemiologic studies. The risk associated with underground parking garages can be evaluated only in part. The information available is nonetheless sufficient to justify actions to reduce exposure. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The risks associated with exposure in underground parking garages cannot be thoroughly evaluated because of inadequate knowledge of exposures and of the toxicity of pollutants. The available knowledge is nonetheless sufficient to advise that risk management measures should be taken to reduce both acute and chronic exposures.     

Concession period for PPPs: A win–win model for a fair risk sharing

Public Private Partnership (PPP) is adopted throughout the world for delivering public infrastructure. Despite the worldwide experience has shown that PPP can provide a variety of benefits to the government, to fully gain them several critical aspects related to a PPP project need to be managed, among these the determination of the concession period.     

Natural disasters in Italy: do we invest enough in risk prevention and mitigation?

Italy is exposed to a number of major natural risks. In the period 1944–2012, earthquakes, landslides and floods have resulted in huge losses with an economic cost (widely underestimated) of 3.5 billion Euros per year. Risk prevention and mitigation (RPM) should represent, therefore, a national priority and would require an adequate scale of financing. The Italian Government has earmarked financial resources for RPM through a multitude of laws. Based on an analysis of this legislation, this paper surveys the main measures financed by the Government to prevent and mitigate the seismic and hydrogeological risks in recent years. Besides, it compares RPM Government financing to the available estimates of the RPM financial need. It concludes that RPM Government financing, although increasing, still represents a small share of the RPM financial need, with, however, discrepancies across Regions.     

Preferred risk allocation in China’s public–private partnership (PPP) projects

As part of a comprehensive research into PPP implementation, a two-round Delphi survey was conducted with experienced practitioners to identify the preference of risk allocation in China’s PPP projects. The results show that the public sector would take sole responsibility for the risk “Expropriation and nationalization”, and take the majority of responsibility for 12 other risks related to government or government officials and their actions. Fourteen risks which neither the public nor private sector may be able to deal with them alone are preferred to be shared equally. The private sector would take the majority of responsibility for 10 risks that are at the project level. Interestingly, no risk fell into the category that should be solely allocated to the private sector. Further analysis of the reasons behind these allocation preferences was then conducted. Recommendations on commercial principles and contract terms between the public authorities and private consortia are also made.     

Impacts of risk allocation on conflict negotiation costs in construction projects: Does managerial control matter?

The negotiation costs for project participants to resolve conflicts significantly undermine the project performance, but how to reduce these costs remains largely unexplored. This study proposes that risk allocation in the contract between the client and contractor will impact the conflict negotiation costs and managerial controls of the client will moderate this relationship. Hypotheses were tested with a sample of 226 projects collected from Chinese construction firms. The results show that conflict negotiation costs will increase with more risks allocated to the contractor. Moreover, behavior control of the client strengthens this positive relationship but outcome control weakens it. These findings offer a nuanced understanding of how conflict negotiation costs occur and contribute to the project governance literature by exploring how ex-post governance (managerial control) aligns with ex-ante governance (risk allocation). Practitioners can benefit from this study by understanding how to formulate risk allocation strategies and exercise different managerial controls.     

Are pharmaceuticals potent environmental pollutants? Part I: environmental risk assessments of selected active pharmaceutical ingredients

As part of achieving national environmental goals, the Swedish Government commissioned an official report from the Swedish Medical Products Agency on environmental effects of pharmaceuticals. Considering half-lives/biodegradability, environmental occurrence, and Swedish sales statistics, 27 active pharmaceutical ingredients were selected for environmental hazard and risk assessments. Although there were large data gaps for many of the compounds, nine ingredients were identified as dangerous for the aquatic environment. Only the sex hormones oestradiol and ethinyloestradiol were considered to be associated with possible aquatic environmental risks. We conclude that risk for acute toxic effects in the environment with the current use of active pharmaceutical ingredients is unlikely. Chronic environmental toxic effects, however, cannot be excluded due to lack of chronic ecotoxicity data. Measures to reduce potential environmental impact posed by pharmaceutical products must be based on knowledge on chronic ecotoxic effects of both active pharmaceutical ingredients as well as excipients. We believe that the impact pharmaceuticals have on the environment should be further studied and be given greater attention such that informed assessments of hazards as well as risks can be done.     

A taxonomy for construction terms in privatized‐infrastructure finance: supporting semantic exchange of project risk information

There is an increasing need for effective flow of information between the various participants in privatized infrastructure projects particularly between construction companies and financial institutions. A taxonomy is developed for relevant concepts in the domain of privatized‐infrastructure finance. The taxonomy is an attempt to create information interoperability between the construction and financial industries. The taxonomy models the concepts of a privatized‐infrastructure finance into six main domains: processes, products, projects, actors, resources and technical topics (technical details and basic concepts). The taxonomy was designed to be consistent with Open Financial Exchange (OFX). It was developed through the analysis of 10 case studies and involvement in project development and interaction with industry experts. The taxonomy was validated through interviews with domain experts, and through the analysis of two independent case studies. A prototypical semantic web‐based portal for communicating project risks was developed to in order to illustrate the use of the taxonomy. Project partners are able to post and view risk items and their status in this portal, observe who is handling them, be aware of what decisions have been made to manage them and what lessons learned are available to address these risks.