Effects of Tariff Design in Risk Management of Privately Financed Infrastructure Projects

The design of tariff is a key issue in the development of privately financed infrastructure projects. It involves the determination of tariff magnitude, the choice of tariff structure, and the design of adjustment mechanisms. Tariff structures can be an all-in tariff or a compound tariff. Tariff adjustment mechanisms can be used to address different risk factors such as inflation, exchange rate, demand, and fuel prices. An appropriate combination of tariff structure and adjustment mechanism can be effective to manage key risks of privately financed infrastructure projects. Simulation results show that a well-designed tariff can create a “win-win” solution for both project promoter and the host government.     

Impact of the Capital Market Collapse on Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects

The collapse of capital markets is having an impact of the funding arrangements for economic and social infrastructure projects in Australia. Bearing this in mind, this paper seeks to examine whether the current volatility and uncertainty in capital markets in Australia affects the feasibility of privately financed infrastructure and specifically the public-private partnership (PPP) method of procurement. This paper examines the role and dependency that capital markets play in funding PPPs, current market conditions, and how they will affect PPP viability. In addition, alternative funding and procurement mechanisms that can be used for short- and medium-term infrastructure deliveries are presented.     

CAPM-Based Valuation of Financial Government Supports to Infeasible and Risky Private Infrastructure Projects

Driven by acute fiscal problems and disenchantment with the performance of publicly delivered quality services, many governments in both industrial and developing countries are now relying on the private sector to deliver infrastructure services. In the context of private infrastructure financing, the provision of governmental support is not uncommon. The present paper discusses the theoretical framework of the valuation of the financial impact of support on the cost of debt, cost of equity, the expected return on equity (ROE), and the project’s net present value (NPV), based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) within a single-period context. Special focus is placed on a minimum revenue guarantee, a direct cash subsidy, and a subsidized subordinated debt. This paper shows that a guarantee reduces the cost of debt and can increase or decrease the cost of equity depending on the leverage, while a subsidy increases only the cost of equity. A subsidized subordinated debt increases both the cost of senior debt and the cost of equity. For all cases, all the supports improve the NPV because the expected increase of ROE can more than sufficiently offset any change in the cost of equity. This paper is of interest to academics because it provides the theoretical analysis of how a support can affect the rates of return expected by debt and private equity investors from risky and, probably, infeasible privately financed infrastructure projects. Practitioners, particularly those from the public sector, can also benefit from research findings that may inform decision makers about what support to provide.     

Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) approach for project delivery, where the private sector has to finance, design, build, operate, and maintain the facility and then transfer it to the government after a specified concession period, is now gaining widespread popularity in developing countries. Compared with conventional project delivery methods, BOT sponsors expose themselves to a high risk, so that special attention must be paid to analyzing and managing risks. The identification, analysis, and allocation of various types of risks are an important aspect for the validation of privately promoted infrastructure projects. The BOT risk model presented in this paper is a prototype evaluation model that provides a logical, reliable, and consistent procedure for assessing the BOT project risk. The proposed model introduced the BOT risk index (F), which relied on the actual performance of eight main BOT risk areas. Two different modeling approaches were used in constructing this index: a new developed and an adapted Dias and Ioannou model. Not only can this index be used for BOT projects’ risk evaluation, but also for ranking them to select the lowest risk project as well.     

Capital Planning System Applied to Municipal Infrastructure

Public owners are challenged by limited and constrained capital sources for acquiring and sustaining infrastructure facilities. They also generally lack supporting automation tools and techniques for analyzing capital investment and project execution decisions, elucidating the impact of these decisions in a holistic manner, and leveraging alternative delivery methods and financing means for competitive advantage. An automated decision support system in development at Massachusetts Institute of Technology provides an integrated planning framework for public owners and engineers to confront these issues. The system, called CHOICES, models life cycle cash flows of capital projects using variable delivery methods and finance options and aggregates them with forecasted operating revenues and expenses at a portfolio level. This paper describes the application of CHOICES to a municipality in Massachusetts. Capital program scenarios were developed using pace of execution and alternate funding sources as primary considerations. Development and analyses of the scenarios suggest that the current municipal environment hinders local infrastructure management and procurement. This is a first-order problem; its solution is likely to outweigh the choice of project delivery for many municipal governments, and it forces municipalities to consider a wide array of alternatives for fulfilling local requirements.     

海外矿业投资环境风险评价研究

海外矿业投资环境存在较大的不确定性,基于现有文献、专家经验和世界银行等数据,对海外矿业投资环境进行了风险因素识别,构建了以政治政策、经济金融、社会文化和基础设施为一级指标的风险评价指标体系。利用德尔菲法确定指标权重,根据世界银行等发布的数据以及公认的等级划分规则对评价指标进行了分级,引入变权原理建立了激励型变权评价模型,并选取12个国家进行模型应用。评价结果显示：矿业投资环境风险较低的国家有加拿大、美国、新西兰和罗马尼亚,为矿业投资首选区;风险一般的国家有菲律宾、南非、澳大利亚和墨西哥,为矿业投资次选区;风险较高的国家有俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、肯尼亚和巴西,为矿业投资慎选区。同时,应关注各个国家投资环境中的极端指标可能给项目运营带来的影响。最后提出了相关建议,以帮助矿山企业降低投资风险,为政府部门制定海外矿业投资政策及实施分类管理提供决策依据。     

Determinants of Efficient Risk Allocation in Privately Financed Public Infrastructure Projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. An investigation into the mechanism that guides the formation of efficient risk allocation strategies is thus desirable. Drawing on the transaction cost economics and resource-based view of organizational capability, this paper has identified five main features of the transactions associated with risk allocation in PPP projects. They include partners’ risk management routine, partners’ risk management mechanism, partners’ cooperation history, risk management environmental uncertainty, and partners’ risk management commitment. For achieving cost efficiency, different risk allocation strategies may suit different conditions of the features. Accordingly, a theoretical framework and five hypotheses were proposed for testing. Data collected in an industrywide survey were analyzed using multiple linear regression technique. It was found that generally, the identified features are determinants in the decision-making process of efficient risk allocation. Therefore, the proposed theoretical framework provides both government and private agencies with not only a logical and holistic understanding of but also a support tool for decision making on risk allocation strategy in PPP projects. Study limitations and future research directions are also set out.     

Financial Viability Analysis and Capital Structure Optimization in Privatized Public Infrastructure Projects

Numerous public infrastructure projects have been privatized worldwide, where responsibilities, risks, and rewards are substantially reallocated between pubic and private sectors. The financial evaluation of a privatized infrastructure project is complex and challenging because of the risks and uncertainties due to the large size, long contract duration, nonrecourse financing, multiple project participants with different motives and interest, and the complexity of the contractual arrangements. Improved financial engineering techniques are required to overcome the limitations of traditional financial analysis techniques in addressing risks and uncertainties. This paper develops a methodology for capital structure optimization and financial viability analysis that reflects the characteristics of project financing, incorporates simulation and financial engineering techniques, and aims for win–win results for both public and private sectors. This quantitative methodology defines the capital structure of a privatized project in four dimensions, examines different project participants’ perspectives of the capital structure, optimizes the capital structure, and evaluates the project’s financial viability when it is under construction risk, bankruptcy risk and various economic risks (that are dealt with as stochastic variables), and is subject to other constraints imposed by different project participants. This methodology also evaluates the impact of governmental guarantees and supports, and addresses the issue of the equity holders’ commitment to project success by initiating the concepts of equity at project risks, value of governmental loan guarantee, and project bankrupt probability during construction. A framework and a solution algorithm are provided for this proposed methodology. These research outputs will significantly facilitate both public and private sector in evaluating a privatized project’s financial viability and collectively determining an optimal capital structure that safeguards their respective interests.     

Organizing and Evaluating Uncertainty in Geotechnical Engineering

Probabilistic methods are potentially useful in four stages of a typical project: site characterization and evaluation, evaluation of designs, decision making, and construction control. In evaluation of projects, it can be useful to express risk numerically. When uncertainties can be quantified and model errors are understood, reliability theory may be used. Event-tree analysis can be a framework for effectively applying judgment concerning uncertainty. The use of quantified risk in decision making is limited by standards for acceptable risk; good communication with a client is essential. Unless clients or regulators are interested in quantifying risks as part of decision making, engineers will continue to rely on traditional methods. When risks are large and the costs of absolute safety are large, clients are interested in discussing risks. Issues concerning the adequacy of existing structures such as earth dams are stimulating interest in risk assessment, and there will be spin-off from developments in earthquake engineering. More and better examples of applications of probabilistic methods are needed.     

Toward a New Paradigm: Simultaneous Use of Multiple Project Delivery Methods

Since World War II, the American Strategy for infrastructure procurement has evolved to rely primarily upon a single delivery method, design∕bid∕build. While this strategy was used to implement massive federal investment in highways, transit systems, and wastewater treatment, it has restricted state and local flexibility in aligning the procurement process to achieve best value for locally funded projects. The engineering, procurement, and construction community in the United States has now recognized the limitations of a procurement process designed to support a single delivery method. Change is coming, and the transition to a new process will challenge public owners in novel, but meaningful ways. This paper focuses upon shifting from the current paradigm toward a new model that supports simultaneous use of multiple project delivery methods. The discussion and frameworks provided are the result of a variety of research efforts by the Infrastructure Systems Development Research team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Studies of the history of American Infrastructure, analyses of case studies across the country, development of decision support models for capital programming, and real applications to municipal infrastructure planning provide the underpinnings for the results and conclusions presented.     

Effects of Accounting and Budgeting on Capital Allocation for Infrastructure Projects

During the decline of public funding over the past three decades, infrastructure modernization has become increasingly dependent upon new strategies for managing the asset collection, and these strategies place a renewed emphasis upon condition assessment, alternative financing, and project delivery methods. Evaluation of these strategies and their impacts on public infrastructure operating and capital budgets presents a significant opportunity for engineers and planners seeking to optimize the capital allocation process. Accounting and budgeting data are the most tangible of decision factors considered by decision makers. As such, this data plays a critical role in how decision makers address the key components of the capital allocation process. These key components include condition assessment, planning, financing, and acquisition. Beginning with a review of accounting and budgeting definitions, this paper describes the role of financial information among these components. Case studies of infrastructure development and recent applications of a decision-support system that assists engineers and planners with the analysis and comparison of infrastructure production strategies provide the basis for characterizing the effects of accounting and budgeting on capital allocation. Findings at the local government level suggest that the common usage of cash-basis accounting and line-item budgeting and the lack of cost accounting do not adequately support decision makers in effectively executing the capital allocation process. However, recent changes in local government financial reporting standards and applications of activity-based costing methods seek to improve accounting and budgeting practices for public managers and outside interests involved in capital investment decisions.     

Selecting BOT/PPP Infrastructure Projects for Government Guarantee Portfolio under Conditions of Budget and Risk in the Indonesian Context

Guarantee provision in privately financed infrastructure projects implemented as build-operate-transfer/public-private-partnership (BOT/PPP) arrangements is not uncommon in many countries, and Indonesia is no exception. But, given that the government budget is, in most if not all cases, not unlimited, there must be a selection of BOT/PPP projects posing proposals for seeking government guarantees. This paper presents a project selection methodology under the chance-constrained goal-programming framework in the context of the Indonesian BOT/PPP infrastructure industry. The ultimate objective of the selection is to result in a portfolio of guaranteed projects that brings maximum welfare gain to the economy as a whole, maximum total net change in financial net present value but, at the same time, puts the government at the lowest fiscal risk for a given budget constraint. The proposed methodology allows the government to examine relationships among the expected total payment, budget-at-risk allocated, and a desired confidence interval of actual payment not exceeding the budget-at-risk. The government can also compare two or more alternative scenarios and choose the optimal one that delivers the highest value for the money. To illustrate the model application, without sacrificing the generality of the proposed methodology, a much-simplified hypothetical case is presented, examined, and discussed.     

国内钢铁企业基于战略目标的项目投资控制

分析了国内钢铁企业控制项目投资的必要性;提出了基于战略目标的建设项目全过程投资控制的思路;并针对项目前期投资决策、方案设计、招投标、项目实施、竣工验收以及项目后评估等阶段,提出了控制投资的具体方法。     

Optimal Capital Structure Model for BOT Power Projects in Turkey

Interest in the Build/Operate/Transfer (BOT) scheme for infrastructure projects has been growing rapidly, and numerous projects have been implemented around the world. Through BOT projects, a government reallocates the risks and rewards in the development of large infrastructure projects to the private sector. One key aspect to the successful implementation of the BOT concept in any country is the raising of finance by project sponsors. Financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity and to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. The objective of this paper is to present a simplified model to determine the optimum equity level for decisionmakers at the evaluation stage of a BOT hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) project in Turkey, which takes place immediately after the completion of the feasibility study. The resulting model is the combination of a financial model and a linear programming model that incorporates an objective of maximizing the return of the project from the equity holder’s point of view. To show versatility of the model, a real case study is conducted. Thus, this research is concerned with the determination of an equity funding level in BOT project finance. There are different equity levels found in BOT HEPP projects, and there is a need for such a model to determine optimal capital structure, which would assist the project sponsors to ensure that the equity level necessary for optimal capital structure is available prior to the project implementation stage.     

Case Study: Izmit Domestic and Industrial Water Supply Build–Operate–Transfer Project

The “build, operate, and transfer model” (BOT) is a financing model, which is used in many developing countries to finance new infrastructure projects with private sector participation. The BOT method foresees the financing, designing, building, operating, and managing of the facility by the private sector and then its transfer free of charge, to the owner after a predetermined concession period. For interested parties, the history of BOT laws and projects in Turkey is presented as an Appendix. In this study, the Izmit Domestic and Industrial Water Supply Project, the biggest privately financed water supply project procured under the BOT model in the world at the time and the first in Turkey will be introduced and the problems that arose during the implementation of the project, namely, the scope of the project, equity debt ratio, return on equity, principles of accounting, coordination of State departments, land access, determination of the optimum operation period, and the sale price of the water, will be presented and suggestions will be given on how to deal with these problems.     

Win–Win Concession Period Determination Methodology

In infrastructure development through public-private partnerships (PPPs), governments worldwide often preset the concession period to a fixed length and then invite the private sector to bid on other aspects of the project. This practice has potential economic, financial, and social problems as shown in a case study of Hong Kong tunnel projects. To overcome these problems, this paper has proposed a win–win concession period determination methodology, in which PPPs are addressed as a principal-agent maximization problem. Both deterministic and simulation-based methods are provided to determine the concession period, with detailed step-by-step procedures. These methods take into consideration the financial characteristics of PPPs and the construction and operation requirements. In particular, the simulation-based approach combines the critical path method and Monte Carlo simulation technique in an effort to quantify construction and market risks for informed decision making. Furthermore, some issues related to the proposed methodology also have been discussed. These issues include (1) factors in determining a reasonable rate of return to the concessionaire’s equity investment; (2) advantages and disadvantages of rate of return regulation; (3) concession period as a tender evaluation criterion; (4) efficiency check of the concessionaire’s cost performance; (5) workable pricing mechanism; and (6) a practical approach to establishing statistical construction cost/duration distributions.     

海外矿业投资项目综合评价方法研究

近年来,中国海外矿业投资急剧增长,但成功运营的海外矿业投资项目为数不多。为有效降低海外矿业项目投资风险,提高海外矿业投资成功率,把握海外矿业投资机会,需要建立一套行之有效的综合评价方法。本文在总结海外矿业投资项目综合评价要素的基础上,利用定性和定量相结合的分析计算方法,建立了海外矿业投资项目综合评价体系,并通过实际案例分析证明了该综合评价的科学性和准确性。     

Entropic Risk Analysis by a High Level Decision Support System for Construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.     

Critical Success Factors for PPPs in Infrastructure Developments: Chinese Perspective

With the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, the desperate demand for infrastructure developments has created bottlenecks in the country’s sustainable development. Infrastructure investment could not be funded completely by the government alone. Taking Beijing as an example, there will be about 2,400 infrastructure projects to be developed during 2006–2010 with a total investment of over RMB 470 billion, which may impose budgetary pressure on the government. As a result, public-private partnership (PPP) could be considered as a favorable option to help provide these rapidly demanded public works and services. In order to investigate the potential for adopting PPPs in the People’s Republic of China, this paper aims to explore the critical success factors (CSFs) necessary to conduct PPP projects. The views from Chinese experts were collected via an empirical questionnaire survey. The respondents were invited to rate a total of 18 CSFs that contribute to the success of PPP projects as gleaned from the contemporary literature. The results of this survey were analyzed by the factor analysis technique. The findings showed that the 18 CSFs could be grouped into five underlying factors including: Factor 1—stable macroeconomic environment; Factor 2—shared responsibility between public and private sectors; Factor 3—transparent and efficient procurement process; Factor 4—stable political and social environment; and Factor 5—judicious government control.     

Build-Operate-Transfer-Type Procurement in Asian Megaprojects

Lessons are drawn from the recent resurgence in public-private partnerships for the procurement of large scale infrastructure, with a focus on Asian megaprojects. BOT (build-operate-transfer)-type win-win cooperation aligns well with the paradigm shift that has repeatedly been called for in addressing construction industry shortfalls. However, the many volatile variables involved and the limited experience in dealing with the special risks encountered highlights the need for decision support frameworks to evaluate and select the optimal from among: (1) potential BOT-type projects; (2) prospective franchisees; and (3) innovative project financing packages. Such frameworks should include appropriate success criteria and indicators for their evaluation. Benchmarking of good practices would establish reasonable ranges of values for such indicators. Identification of critical success factors, classifications of common risks, and comparisons of recent experiences on BOT-type projects lead to recommendations for the development of a “BOT body of knowledge” with related guidelines and toolkits. These would assist both public and private sector decision makers considering BOT-type modalities to attain multiple win-win-win targets that benefit their respective interests, as well as those of the general public end users.