基于ET管理的水资源供耗分析——以河北省临漳县为例

我们正面临着因水资源日益短缺和供需矛盾日益尖锐而引起的生存和发展危机.从水资源面临的严峻形势入手,把基于ET管理的以供定需的水资源配置方式应用于河北省临漳县,实现区域水资源的可持续发展.     

雨水资源的优化配置和可持续利用

提出了适水立项，量源而行，以供定需，以需择供，供求相依，动态平衡的优化水资源配置，并提出几项问题与建议。     

基于供应链管理的南水北调水资源配置与调度

随着时代的发展,水资源配置与调度的研究方法应该跳出原有系统工程方法论的思维模式,由过去的“以需定供”、“技术经济寻优”向“以供定需”、“沟通与协调以寻求整体最优或帕累托最优解”过渡和发展。南水北调工程水资源配置与调度是一项非常复杂的系统工程,在国内外没有现成经验可供参考。本文创新性地提出在南水北调工程水资源配置与调度中引入供应链管理的思想,充分发挥“沟通与协调”的作用,通过订定“供水协议”,使整个系统处于“双赢”的平衡状态,以达到水资源配置与调度的目的。     

雨水资源的优化配置和可持续利用

提出了适水立项,量源而行,以供定需,以需择供,供求相依,动态平衡的优化水资源配置,并提出几项问题与建议。     

中国水资源优化配置研究的进展与展望

水资源优化配置是多目标多决策的大系统问题，必须利用大系统理论的思想进行分析研究，文中深入分析了我国水资源优化配置理论，分别对“对需定供”的水资源配置、“以供定需”的水资源配置、基于宏观经济的水资源配置、可持续发展的水资源配置做了阐述，在此基础上，分析了水资源优化配置研究的发展方向，其结论是：传统的水资源配置存在对环境保护重视不够，强调节水而忽视高效、重视缺水地区的水资源优化配置而忽视水资源充足地区的用水效率提高、突出水资源的分配效率而忽视行业内部用水合理性等问题，影响了区域经济的发展和水资源的可持续利用；因此，应加强水资源优化配置研究，特别是新理论和新方法的研究，协调好资源、社会、经济和生态环境的动态关系，确保实现社会、经济、环境和资源的可持续发展。     

对建设项目水资源论证的认识

一、建设项目水资源论证是保证水资源可持续利用的重要环节 建设项目水资源论证工作是改变过去"以需定供"粗放式的用水方式,向"以供定需"节约式的用水方式转变过程中的一项重要工作.     

人水和谐 推进水资源可持续利用

人水和谐需要人类主动承担起历史责任,充分尊重自然规律,不仅对现在负责,更要对历史和未来负责,切实转变观念,约束自身行为。对水资源进行开发、利用、治理转变为在开发、利用、治理的同时,更加注意对水资源的配置、节约和保护,从无节制的开源趋利、以需定供转变为以供定需,按水资源状况确定国民经济发展规划和布局,大力构建节水型社会,以实现水资源的可持续利用。     

关于水库水资源论证的几点认识

建设项目水资源论证是改变过去"以需定供"粗放式的用水方式,向"以供定需"节约式的用水方式转变过程中的一项重要工作。笔者以红石峁水库水资源论证为例,对水库水资源论证提出几点具体认识。     

合理分水管住用水以十六字治水兴水方针统领全省水资源管理

正2020年,全省水资源管理工作以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,以建立完善水资源管理制度体系为统领,以提高水资源现代化管理能力为导向,以合理分水、管住用水为目标,统筹配置外调水与当地水、地表水和地下水,统筹兼顾生活、生态、生产用水,把水资源管理工作重心从注重服务转移到服务监管并重上来,从注重"以需定供"转移到"以供定需"上来,从注重用水总量宏观目标转移到用水单元控制上来,从传统管理方法转移到现代管理体系上来,推动水资源管理高质量发展,在2020年决战决胜之年,为新时代建设经济强省、美丽河北提供强有力的水资源安全保障。     

提升水利综合服务能力为全面建设小康社会提供有力支撑

结合晋中市实际情况，论述了今后一个时期水利改革与发展必须实现由水资源开发利用为主向开发利用和节约保护并重转变，由以需定供向以供定需，供需结合转变，由以工程建设为主向建管并重转变。着力提升水资源承载能力、水工程供水能力、水旱灾害抗御能力、水行政执法能力、水机制创新能力，通过提升水利综合服务能力，为全面建设小康社会提供有力支撑。     

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD).In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1) continuity of existing water utilization, (2) water conservation/saving, and (3) water exploitation.The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors.The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model.Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed.The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.     

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province based on a cloud model

With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.     

基于动态互馈模拟的半分布式水资源综合调度模型

由于区域水资源循环过程呈现显著二元特性,自然水资源与社会经济发展间存在互相影响与制约的关系,因此需深入研究自然水循环与社会水循环间的动态互馈关系。为此,设计了基于动态互馈模拟的半分布式水资源综合调度模型,采用"实测、分离、聚合、建模、调控"的水资源循环时序动态反馈模拟方法设计调度模型架构,调度模型包括产汇流模块、再生水模块及水资源调度模块,基于单元内部的运算特征、单元间的运算特征和与河道汇流循环特征完成水资源系统单元的动态、联动、互馈的水资源模拟与调度。试验结果表明,所设计模型径流模拟平均误差率为4.25%,水资源调度总量误差为1.46%,达到水资源调度的要求;且与对比模型相比独具动态互馈功能,模拟与调度性能更优。     

城市需水预测模型研究

需水量预测是供水决策,水利投资数额的重要参考指数,在水资源规划与管理中起着重要的作用。针对现有需水量预测方法存在局限性等问题,结合经济社会发展状况和水资源的特点,建立了城市需水预测模型。该模型能够较好地体现出社会经济、生态、环境和水资源各个系统之间的复杂关系。     

智能型水供需平衡模型及其应用

本文介绍了智能型水资源供需平衡模型，阐述了建模思想、模型主要功能、特点和结构。该模型不仅从时间、空间、水源和需水四大方面对水资源系统进行了全面、统一、深入的描述，而且具备智能功能，计算速度得到了成倍提高，从而在巨型水资源系统的系统优化分析方面取得了突破。同时，本文还扼要介绍了该模型在新疆水资源合理配置研究中的应用情况。     

基于正切模型的额济纳绿洲生态需水研究

基于RS解译和实测径流资料,分析了额济纳绿洲生态状况与水资源的关系,结果表明,无论从时间尺度上还是从空间尺度上,额济纳绿洲生态演变和水资源之间均具有明显的正相关关系,水资源减少是生态退化的决定性因素。在此基础上,结合西北内陆河产水和用水特点,提出了产流较弱的绿洲区生态需水量是为维持一定规模绿洲所需区外补给水量这一观点,并建立了额济纳绿洲生态需水计算的“正切”模型,通过与其他方法的比较,验证了模型的合理性,该方法可为北方缺水地区绿洲生态需水分析计算和水资源管理方案的合理制定提供决策依据。     

A Semi-Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model and its Application in a Climate Change Impact Study in the Middle and Lower Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Human activities and climatic change have greatly impacted hydrological cycles and water resources planning in the Yellow River basin. In order to assess these impacts, a semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities, vegetation, and soil characteristics. The model parameters were calibrated in 35 gauged sub-basins in the middle Yellow River, and then the relationships between the model parameters and the basin physical characteristics were established. A parameterization scheme was developed in which the model parameters were estimated for each grid element by regression and optimization methods. Based on the different outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), the sensitivities to global warming of hydrology and water resources for the Yellow River basin were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The runoffs are found to be very sensitive to temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. The additional uncertainty of climate change has posed a challenge to the existing water resources management practices, and the integration of water resources management will be necessary to enhance the water use efficiency in the Yellow River basin.     

位山灌区配水调度应用模型的研制与应用

针对位山引黄灌区水资源供需矛盾日益突出的特点，从节约用水，科学用水出发，开发研制了灌区配水调度应用模型，模型由来水量整编功能模块，测站水量平差功能模块，已配水统计功能模块，来水预测功能模块，配水调度功能模块等组成。应用结果表明，该模型具有适应性强，使用方便，工作效率高等特点。     

水资源危机预警模型

针对水资源危机的特点,提出用尖点突变模型进行系列年水资源危机识别,将识别因子作为条件属性、识别结果作为决策属性来构建决策表,用粗糙集理论对决策表进行属性约简,得到水资源危机预警指标和预警决策规则,用BP神经网络滚动预测预警指标,将指标的预测结果带入预警决策规则进行水资源危机判别,以此建立了水资源危机预警的CC-RS-BP模型。该模型是以规则形式进行预警判别,易被理解和利用,为水资源危机预警提供了新的思路。     

基于云理论的区域水资源承载力评价模型研究

针对水资源承载力评价中存在不确定性的特征,将云模型引入到区域水资源承载力综合评价研究领域中,利用云理论实现评价等级的定性与定量转换。将云综合评判模型应用于海河流域的水资源承载力研究,结果表明:海河流域水资源承载力为"较弱"等级;南水北调中线调水100亿m~3后,海河流域水资源承载力介于"中等"和"较弱"等级之间,改善不明显。该模型可以将不确定性概念的模糊性和随机性有机地结合在一起,既用隶属函数描述了评价等级的模糊性,又利用超熵概念充分考虑了隶属度本身存在的随机性,是一种有效可行的水资源承载力评价模型。