Improved statistical inference for the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

We develop nearly unbiased estimators for the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution [Birnbaum, Z.W., Saunders, S.C., 1969a. A new family of life distributions. J. Appl. Probab. 6, 319-327], which is commonly used in reliability studies. We derive modified maximum likelihood estimators that are bias-free to second order. We also consider bootstrap-based bias correction. The numerical evidence we present favors three bias-adjusted estimators. Different interval estimation strategies are evaluated. Additionally, we derive a Bartlett correction that improves the finite-sample performance of the likelihood ratio test in finite samples.     

On the hazard function of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and associated inference

In this paper, we discuss the shape of the hazard function of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Specifically, we establish that the hazard function of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is an upside down function for all values of the shape parameter. In reliability and survival analysis, as it is often of interest to determine the point at which the hazard function reaches its maximum, we propose different estimators of that point and evaluate their performance using Monte Carlo simulations. Next, we analyze a data set and illustrate all the inferential methods developed here and finally make some concluding remarks.     

Computing all roots of the likelihood equations of seemingly unrelated regressions

Seemingly unrelated regressions are statistical regression models based on the Gaussian distribution. They are popular in econometrics but also arise in graphical modeling of multivariate dependencies. In maximum likelihood estimation, the parameters of the model are estimated by maximizing the likelihood function, which maps the parameters to the likelihood of observing the given data. By transforming this optimization problem into a polynomial optimization problem, it was recently shown that the likelihood function of a simple bivariate seemingly unrelated regressions model may have several stationary points. Thus local maxima may complicate maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we study several more complicated seemingly unrelated regression models, and show how all stationary points of the likelihood function can be computed using algebraic geometry.     

Pairwise likelihood inference for ordinal categorical time series

Ordinal categorical time series may be analyzed as censored observations from a suitable latent stochastic process, which describes the underlying evolution of the system. This approach may be considered as an alternative to Markov chain models or to regression methods for categorical time series data. The problem of parameter estimation is solved through a simple pseudolikelihood, called pairwise likelihood. This inferential methodology is successfully applied to the class of autoregressive ordered probit models. Potential usefulness for inference and model selection within more general classes of models are also emphasized. Illustrations include simulation studies and two simple real data applications.     

Robust likelihood inference for regression parameters in partially linear models

A robust likelihood approach is proposed for inference about regression parameters in partially-linear models. More specifically, normality is adopted as the working model and is properly corrected to accomplish the objective. Knowledge about the true underlying random mechanism is not required for the proposed method. Simulations and illustrative examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed robust likelihood method, even in irregular situations caused by the components of the nonparametric smooth function in partially-linear models.     

Improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

This paper introduces a new type of Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy System, denoted as IANFIS (Improved Adaptive Neuro-fuszzy Inference System). The new structure is realized by the insertion of the error of training of ANFIS in the third layer of this system. The recurrence of the error of training will increase the capability of convergence and the robustness of ANFIS. The proposed IANFIS system is applied to make the identification of nonlinear functions, and the obtained results are compared with these obtained by usual ANFIS to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neuro-fuzzy system.     

Improved testing inference in mixed linear models

Mixed linear models are commonly used in repeated measures studies. They account for the dependence amongst observations obtained from the same experimental unit. Often, the number of observations is small, and it is thus important to use inference strategies that incorporate small sample corrections. In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for fixed effects inference in mixed linear models. In particular, we derive a Bartlett correction to such a test, and also to a test obtained from a modified profile likelihood function. Our results generalize those in [Zucker, D.M., Lieberman, O., Manor, O., 2000. Improved small sample inference in the mixed linear model: Bartlett correction and adjusted likelihood. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 62, 827-838] by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued. Additionally, our Bartlett corrections allow for random effects nonlinear covariance matrix structure. We report simulation results which show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behavior relative to the standard likelihood ratio test. An application is also presented and discussed.     

Exact likelihood inference for two exponential populations under joint Type-II censoring

Comparative lifetime experiments are of paramount importance when the object of a study is to ascertain the relative merits of two competing products in regard to the duration of their service life. In this paper, we discuss exact inference for two exponential populations when Type-II censoring is implemented on the two samples in a combined manner. We obtain the conditional maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the two exponential mean parameters. We then derive the moment generating functions and the exact distributions of these MLEs along with exact confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence regions. Moreover, simultaneous approximate confidence regions based on the asymptotic normality of the MLEs and simultaneous credible confidence regions from a Bayesian viewpoint are also discussed. A comparison of the exact, approximate, bootstrap and Bayesian intervals is also made in terms of coverage probabilities. Finally, an example is presented in order to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Reference analysis for Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper we consider the Bayesian estimators for the unknown parameters of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under the reference prior. The Bayesian estimators cannot be obtained in closed forms. An approximate Bayesian approach is proposed using the idea of Lindley and Gibbs sampling procedure is also used to obtain the Bayesian estimators. These results are compared using Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood method and another approximate Bayesian approach Laplace’s approximation. Two real data sets are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

ECM-based maximum likelihood inference for multivariate linear mixed models with autoregressive errors

For the analysis of longitudinal data with multiple characteristics, we are devoted to providing additional tools for multivariate linear mixed models in which the errors are assumed to be serially correlated according to an autoregressive process. We present a computationally flexible ECM procedure for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. A score test statistic for testing the existence of autocorrelation among within-subject errors of each characteristic is derived. The techniques for the estimation of random effects and the prediction of further responses given past repeated measures are also investigated. The methodology is illustrated through an application to a set of AIDS data and two small simulation studies.     

Estimation of extreme percentiles in Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has recently received considerable attention in the statistical literature, including some applications in the environmental sciences. Several authors have generalized this distribution, but these generalizations are still inadequate for predicting extreme percentiles. In this paper, we consider a variation of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, which enables the prediction of extreme percentiles as well as the implementation of the EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters. This implementation has some advantages over the direct maximization of the likelihood function. Finally, we present results of a simulation study along with an application to a real environmental data set.     

Finite-sample investigation of likelihood and Bayes inference for the symmetric von Mises-Fisher distribution

We consider likelihood and Bayes analyses for the symmetric matrix von Mises-Fisher (matrix Fisher) distribution, which is a common model for three-dimensional orientations (represented by 3×3 orthogonal matrices with a positive determinant). One important characteristic of this model is a 3×3 rotation matrix representing the modal rotation, and an important challenge is to establish accurate confidence regions for it with an interpretable geometry for practical implementation. While we provide some extensions of one-sample likelihood theory (e.g., Euler angle parametrizations of modal rotation), our main contribution is the development of MCMC-based Bayes inference through non-informative priors. In one-sample problems, the Bayes methods allow the construction of inference regions with transparent geometry and accurate frequentist coverages in a way that standard likelihood inference cannot. Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of Bayes and likelihood inference regions. Furthermore, we illustrate how the Bayes framework extends inference from one-sample problems to more complicated one-way random effects models based on the symmetric matrix Fisher model in a computationally straightforward manner. The inference methods are then applied to a human kinematics example for illustration.     

An R implementation for generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions

The Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) model is a positively skewed statistical distribution that has received great attention in recent decades. A generalized version of this model was derived based on symmetrical distributions in the real line named the generalized BS (GBS) distribution. The R package named gbs was developed to analyze data from GBS models. This package contains probabilistic and reliability indicators and random number generators from GBS distributions. Parameter estimates for censored and uncensored data can also be obtained by means of likelihood methods from the gbs package. Goodness-of-fit and diagnostic methods were also implemented in this package in order to check the suitability of the GBS models. In this article, the capabilities and features of the gbs package are illustrated by using simulated and real data sets. Shape and reliability analyses for GBS models are presented. A simulation study for evaluating the quality and sensitivity of the estimation method developed in the package is provided and discussed.     

Random number generator for the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been shown to be the failure time distribution for fatigue failure in particular and for stochastic wear-out failure in general. In this paper, the random number generator for Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is addressed. In testing the proposed approaches several large samples were generated with various combinations of the paramenters. The probability plot is further applied to check the goodness-of-fit of each sample.     

Bayesian analysis of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with partial information

In Bayesian analysis with objective priors, it should be justified that the posterior distribution is proper. In this paper, we show that the reference prior (or independent Jeffreys prior) of a two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution will result in an improper posterior distribution. However, the posterior distributions are proper based on the reference priors with partial information (RPPI). Based on censored samples, slice sampling is utilized to obtain the Bayesian estimators based on RPPI. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the efficiencies of different RPPIs, to assess the sensitivity of the choice of the priors, and to compare the Bayesian estimators with the maximum likelihood estimators, for various scales of sample size and degree of censoring. A real data set is analyzed for illustrative purpose.     

Improved inference on a scalar fixed effect of interest in nonlinear mixed-effects models

Likelihood-based inference on a scalar fixed effect of interest in nonlinear mixed-effects models usually relies on first-order approximations. If the sample size is small, tests and confidence intervals derived from first-order solutions can be inaccurate. An improved test statistic based on a modification of the signed likelihood ratio statistic is presented which was recently suggested by Skovgaard [1996. An explicit large-deviation approximation to one-parameter tests. Bernoulli 2, 145-165]. The finite sample behaviour of this statistic is investigated through a set of simulation studies. The results show that its finite-sample null distribution is better approximated by the standard normal than it is for its first-order counterpart. The R code used to run the simulations is freely available.     

Lifetime analysis based on the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper, we consider a family of generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions and present a lifetime analysis based mainly on the hazard function of this model. In addition, we carry out maximum likelihood estimation by using an iterative algorithm, which produces robust estimates. Asymptotic inference is also presented. Next, the quality of the estimation method is examined by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We then provide a practical example to illustrate the obtained results. From this example and based on goodness-of-fit methods, we show that the GBS distribution results in a more appropriate model for modeling fatigue data than other models commonly used to model this type of data. Finally, we estimate the hazard function and the critical point of this function.     

Testing hypotheses in the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II censored samples

The two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used successfully to model fatigue failure times. Although censoring is typical in reliability and survival studies, little work has been published on the analysis of censored data for this distribution. In this paper, we address the issue of performing testing inference on the two parameters of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples. The likelihood ratio statistic and a recently proposed statistic, the gradient statistic, provide a convenient framework for statistical inference in such a case, since they do not require to obtain, estimate or invert an information matrix, which is an advantage in problems involving censored data. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out in order to investigate and compare the finite sample performance of the likelihood ratio and the gradient tests. Our numerical results show evidence that the gradient test should be preferred. Further, we also consider the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution under type-II right censored samples and present some Monte Carlo simulations for testing the parameters in this class of models using the likelihood ratio and gradient tests. Three empirical applications are presented.     

Size and power properties of some tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n^−1/2 and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the non-null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation is presented in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. We also present two empirical applications.