Predicting the type of pregnancy using artificial neural networks and multinomial logistic regression: a comparison study

Some medical and epidemiological surveys have been designed to predict a nominal response variable with several levels. With regard to the type of pregnancy there are four possible states: wanted, unwanted by wife, unwanted by husband and unwanted by couple. In this paper, we have predicted the type of pregnancy, as well as the factors influencing it using two different models and comparing them. Regarding the type of pregnancy with several levels, we developed a multinomial logistic regression and a neural network based on the data and compared their results using three statistical indices: sensitivity, specificity and kappa coefficient. Based on these three indices, neural network proved to be a better fit for prediction on data in comparison to multinomial logistic regression. When the relations among variables are complex, one can use neural networks instead of multinomial logistic regression to predict the nominal response variables with several levels in order to gain more accurate predictions.     

The behaviour of the multi-layer perceptron and the support vector regression learning methods in the prediction of NO and NO2 concentrations in Szeged, Hungary

The main aim of this paper is to predict NO and NO₂ concentrations 4 days in advance by comparing two artificial intelligence learning methods, namely, multi-layer perceptron and support vector machines, on two kinds of spatial embedding of the temporal time series. Hourly values of NO and NO₂ concentrations, as well as meteorological variables were recorded in a cross-road monitoring station with heavy traffic in Szeged, in order to build a model for predicting NO and NO₂ concentrations several hours in advance. The prediction of NO and NO₂ concentrations was performed partly on the basis of their past values, and partly on the basis of temperature, humidity and wind speed data. Since NO can be predicted more accurately, its values were considered primarily when forecasting NO₂. Time series prediction can be interpreted in a way that is suitable for artificial intelligence learning. Two effective learning methods, namely, multi-layer perceptron and support vector regression are used to provide efficient non-linear models for NO and NO₂ time series predictions. Multi-layer perceptron is widely used to predict these time series, but support vector regression has not yet been applied for predicting NO and NO₂ concentrations. Three commonly used linear algorithms were considered as references: 1-day persistence, average of several day persistence and linear regression. Based on the good results of the average of several day persistence, a prediction scheme was introduced, which forms weighted averages instead of simple ones. The optimization of these weights was performed with linear regression in linear case and with the learning methods mentioned in non-linear case. Concerning the NO predictions, the non-linear learning methods give significantly better predictions than the reference linear methods. In the case of NO₂, the improvement of the prediction is considerable, however, it is less notable than for NO.