Smooth semiparametric and nonparametric Bayesian estimation of bivariate densities from bivariate histogram data

Penalized B-splines combined with the composite link model are used to estimate a bivariate density from a histogram with wide bins. The goals are multiple: they include the visualization of the dependence between the two variates, but also the estimation of derived quantities like Kendall’s tau, conditional moments and quantiles. Two strategies are proposed: the first one is semiparametric with flexible margins modeled using B-splines and a parametric copula for the dependence structure; the second one is nonparametric and is based on Kronecker products of the marginal B-spline bases. Frequentist and Bayesian estimations are described. A large simulation study quantifies the performances of the two methods under different dependence structures and for varying strengths of dependence, sample sizes and amounts of grouping. It suggests that Schwarz’s BIC is a good tool for classifying the competing models. The density estimates are used to evaluate conditional quantiles in two applications in social and in medical sciences.     

Bayesian skew selection for multivariate models

We develop a Bayesian approach for the selection of skew in multivariate skew t distributions constructed through hidden conditioning in the manners suggested by either Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) or Sahu et al. (2003). We show that the skew coefficients for each margin are the same for the standardized versions of both distributions. We introduce binary indicators to denote whether there is symmetry, or skew, in each dimension. We adopt a proper beta prior on each non-zero skew coefficient, and derive the corresponding prior on the skew parameters. In both distributions we show that as the degrees of freedom increases, the prior smoothly bounds the non-zero skew parameters away from zero and identifies the posterior. We estimate the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods by exploiting the conditionally Gaussian representation of the skew t distributions. This allows for the search through the posterior space of all possible combinations of skew and symmetry in each dimension. We show that the proposed method works well in a simulation setting, and employ it in two multivariate econometric examples. The first involves the modeling of foreign exchange rates and the second is a vector autoregression for intra-day electricity spot prices. The approach selects skew along the original coordinates of the data, which proves insightful in both examples.     

On generalised asymmetric stochastic volatility models

Stochastic volatility (SV) models have been considered as a real alternative to time-varying volatility of the ARCH family. Existing asymmetric SV (ASV) models treat volatility asymmetry via the leverage effect hypothesis. Generalised ASV models that take account of both volatility asymmetry and normality violation expressed simultaneously by skewness and excess kurtosis are introduced. The new generalised ASV models are estimated using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for parametric and log-volatility estimation. By using simulated and real financial data series, the new models are compared to existing SV models for their statistical properties, and for their estimation performance in within and out-of-sample periods. Results show that there is much to gain from the introduction of the generalised ASV models.     

A goodness-of-fit test for Archimedean copula models in the presence of right censoring

A goodness-of-fit testing procedure for Archimedean copula (AC) models is developed based on right-censored data. The proposed approach extends an existing method, which is suitable for the Clayton model, to general AC models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics under the true model assumption are derived. Simulation analysis shows that the proposed test has reasonable performance. Finally, two real data examples are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

Penalized cluster analysis with applications to family data

The goal of cluster analysis is to assign observations into clusters so that observations in the same cluster are similar in some sense. Many clustering methods have been developed in the statistical literature, but these methods are inappropriate for clustering family data, which possess intrinsic familial structure. To incorporate the familial structure, we propose a form of penalized cluster analysis with a tuning parameter controlling the tradeoff between the observation dissimilarity and the familial structure. The tuning parameter is selected based on the concept of clustering stability. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated via simulations and an application to a family study of asthma.     

A parametric bootstrap approach for ANOVA with unequal variances: Fixed and random models

This article is about testing the equality of several normal means when the variances are unknown and arbitrary, i.e., the set up of the one-way ANOVA. Even though several tests are available in the literature, none of them perform well in terms of Type I error probability under various sample size and parameter combinations. In fact, Type I errors can be highly inflated for some of the commonly used tests; a serious issue that appears to have been overlooked. We propose a parametric bootstrap (PB) approach and compare it with three existing location-scale invariant tests—the Welch test, the James test and the generalized F (GF) test. The Type I error rates and powers of the tests are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our studies show that the PB test is the best among the four tests with respect to Type I error rates. The PB test performs very satisfactorily even for small samples while the Welch test and the GF test exhibit poor Type I error properties when the sample sizes are small and/or the number of means to be compared is moderate to large. The James test performs better than the Welch test and the GF test. It is also noted that the same tests can be used to test the significance of the random effect variance component in a one-way random model under unequal error variances. Such models are widely used to analyze data from inter-laboratory studies. The methods are illustrated using some examples.     

Incorporating historical control information into quantal bioassay with Bayesian approach

A Bayesian approach with an iterative reweighted least squares is used to incorporate historical control information into quantal bioassays to estimate the dose-response relationship, where the logit of the historical control responses are assumed to have a normal distribution. The parameters from this normal distribution are estimated from both empirical and full Bayesian approaches with a marginal likelihood function being approximated by Laplace’s Method. A comparison is made using real data between estimates that include the historical control information and those that do not. It was found that the inclusion of the historical control information improves the efficiency of the estimators. In addition, this logit-normal formulation is compared with the traditional beta-binomial for its improvement in parameter estimates. Consequently the estimated dose-response relationship is used to formulate the point estimator and confidence bands for ED(100p) for various values of risk rate p and the potency for any dose level.     

A simple and efficient method for variable ranking according to their usefulness for learning

The selection of a subset of input variables is often based on the previous construction of a ranking to order the variables according to a given criterion of relevancy. The objective is then to linearize the search, estimating the quality of subsets containing the topmost ranked variables. An algorithm devised to rank input variables according to their usefulness in the context of a learning task is presented. This algorithm is the result of a combination of simple and classical techniques, like correlation and orthogonalization, which allow the construction of a fast algorithm that also deals explicitly with redundancy. Additionally, the proposed ranker is endowed with a simple polynomial expansion of the input variables to cope with nonlinear problems. The comparison with some state-of-the-art rankers showed that this combination of simple components is able to yield high-quality rankings of input variables. The experimental validation is made on a wide range of artificial data sets and the quality of the rankings is assessed using a ROC-inspired setting, to avoid biased estimations due to any particular learning algorithm.     

Partially varying coefficient single index proportional hazards regression models

In this paper, the partially varying coefficient single index proportional hazards regression models are discussed. All unknown functions are fitted by polynomial B splines. The index parameters and B-spline coefficients are estimated by the partial likelihood method and a two-step Newton-Raphson algorithm. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators of all the parameters are derived. Through a simulation study and the VA data example, we illustrate that the proposed estimation procedure is accurate, rapid and stable.     

Construction of marginally and conditionally restricted designs using multiplicative algorithms

The problem of constructing optimal designs when some of the factors are not under the control of the experimenters is considered. Their values can be known or unknown before the experiment is carried out. Several criteria are taken into consideration to find optimal conditional designs given some prior information on the factors. In order to determine these optimal conditional designs a class of multiplicative algorithms is provided. Optimal designs are computed for illustrative, but simplistic, examples. Two real life problems in production models and a physical test for predicting morbidity in lung cancer surgery motivate the procedures provided.     

Robust model selection with flexible trimming

The forward search provides data-driven flexible trimming of a C_p statistic for the choice of regression models that reveals the effect of outliers on model selection. An informed robust model choice follows. Even in small samples, the statistic has a null distribution indistinguishable from an F distribution. Limits on acceptable values of the C_p statistic follow. Two examples of widely differing size are discussed. A powerful graphical tool is the generalized candlestick plot, which summarizes the information on all forward searches and on the choice of models. A comparison is made with the use of M-estimation in robust model choice.     

Dissipative analysis and control of state-space symmetric systems

The paper addresses the problem of analysis and static output feedback control synthesis for strict quadratic dissipativity of linear time-invariant systems with state-space symmetry. As a particular case of dissipative systems, we consider the mixed H_∞ and positive real performance criterion and we develop an explicit expression for calculating the H_∞ norm of these systems. Subsequently, an explicit parametrization of the static output feedback control gains that solve the mixed H_∞ and positive real performance problem is obtained. Numerical examples demonstrate the use and computational advantages of the proposed explicit solutions.     

An LMI approach to minimum sensitivity analysis with application to fault detection

This paper systematically studies the minimum input sensitivity analysis problem. The lowest level of sensitivity of system outputs to system inputs is defined as an H_- index. A full characterization of the H_- index is given, first, in terms of matrix equalities and inequalities, and then in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), as a dual of the Bounded Real Lemma. A related problem of input observability is also studied, with new necessary and sufficient conditions given, which are necessary for a fault detection system to have a nonzero worst-case fault sensitivity. The above results are applied to the problem of fault detection filter analysis, with numerical examples given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.     

Three-dimensional beta shapes

The Voronoi diagram of a point set has been extensively used in various disciplines ever since it was first proposed. Its application realms have been even further extended to estimate the shape of point clouds when Edelsbrunner and Mücke introduced the concept of α-shape based on the Delaunay triangulation of a point set.In this paper, we present the theory of β-shape for a set of three-dimensional spheres as the generalization of the well-known α-shape for a set of points. The proposed β-shape fully accounts for the size differences among spheres and therefore it is more appropriate for the efficient and correct solution for applications in biological systems such as proteins.Once the Voronoi diagram of spheres is given, the corresponding β-shape can be efficiently constructed and various geometric computations on the sphere complex can be efficiently and correctly performed. It turns out that many important problems in biological systems such as proteins can be easily solved via the Voronoi diagram of atoms in proteins and β-shapes transformed from the Voronoi diagram.     

Regularized reduced rank growth curve models

The growth curve model (GCM), also known as GMANOVA, is a useful technique for investigating patterns of change in repeated measurement data over time and examining the effects of predictor variables on temporal trajectories. The reduced rank feature had been introduced previously to GCM for capturing redundant information in the criterion variables in a parsimonious way. In this paper, a ridge type of regularization was incorporated to obtain better estimates of parameters. Separate ridge parameters were allowed in column and row regressions, and the generalized singular value decomposition (GSVD) was applied for rank reduction. It was shown that the regularized estimates of parameters could be obtained in closed form for fixed values of ridge parameters. Permutation tests were used to identify the best dimensionality in the solution, and the K-fold cross validation method was used to choose optimal values of the ridge parameters. A bootstrap method was used to assess the reliability of parameter estimates. The proposed model was further extended to a mixture of GMANOVA and MANOVA. Illustrative examples were given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.     

Application of a fault detection filter to structural health monitoring

A model-based fault detection filter is developed for structural health monitoring of a simply supported beam. The structural damage represented in the plant model is shown to decompose into a known fault direction vector maintaining a fixed direction, dependent on the damage location, and an arbitrary fault magnitude representing the extent of the damage. According to detection filter theory, if damage occurs, under certain circumstances the fault will be uniquely detected and identified through an associated invariance in the direction imposed on the fault detection filter residuals. The spectral algorithm used to design the detection filter is based on a left eigenstructure assignment approach which accommodates system sensitivities that are revealed as ill-conditioned matrices formed from the eigenvectors in the construction of the detection filter gains. The detection filter is applied to data from an aluminum simply supported beam with four piezoelectric sensors and one piezoelectric actuator. By exciting the structure at the first natural frequency, damage in the form of a 5 mm saw cut made to one side of the beam is detected and localized.     

A class of aggregation functions encompassing two-dimensional OWA operators

In this paper we prove that, under suitable conditions, Atanassov’s K_α operators, which act on intervals, provide the same numerical results as OWA operators of dimension two. On one hand, this allows us to recover OWA operators from K_α operators. On the other hand, by analyzing the properties of Atanassov’s operators, we can generalize them. In this way, we introduce a class of aggregation functions - the generalized Atanassov operators - that, in particular, include two-dimensional OWA operators. We investigate under which conditions these generalized Atanassov operators satisfy some properties usually required for aggregation functions, such as bisymmetry, strictness, monotonicity, etc. We also show that if we apply these aggregation functions to interval-valued fuzzy sets, we obtain an ordered family of fuzzy sets.     

Fitting finite mixtures of generalized linear regressions in R

R package flexmix provides flexible modelling of finite mixtures of regression models using the EM algorithm. Several new features of the software such as fixed and nested varying effects for mixtures of generalized linear models and multinomial regression for a priori probabilities given concomitant variables are introduced. The use of the software in addition to model selection is demonstrated on a logistic regression example.     

Modelling series of studies with a common structure

Consider the situation where the Structuration des Tableaux à Trois Indices de la Statistique (STATIS) methodology is applied to a series of studies, each study being represented by data and weight matrices. Relations between studies may be captured by the Hilbert-Schmidt product of these matrices. Specifically, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hilbert-Schmidt matrix S may be used to obtain a geometrical representation of the studies. The studies in a series may further be considered to have a common structure whenever their corresponding points lie along the first axis. The matrix S can be expressed as the sum of a rank 1 matrix λuu^T with an error matrix E. Therefore, the components of the vector are sufficient to locate the points associated to the studies. Former models for S where vec(E) are mathematically tractable and yet do not take into account the symmetry of the matrix S. Thus a new symmetric model is proposed as well as the corresponding tests for a common structure. It is further shown how to assess the goodness of fit of such models. An application to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is used for assessing the proposed model.