Forecasting short-term electricity load using hybrid support vector regression with grey catastrophe and random forest modeling

This paper develops a novel short-term load forecasting model that hybridizes several machine learning methods, such as support vector regression (SVR), grey catastrophe (GC (1,1)), and random forest (RF) modeling. The modeling process is based on the minimization of both SVR and risk. GC is used to process and extract catastrophe points in the long term to reduce randomness. RF is used to optimize forecasting performance by exploiting its superior optimization capability. The proposed SVR-GC-RF model has higher forecasting accuracy (MAPE values are 6.35% and 6.21%, respectively) using electric loads from Australian-Energy-Market-Operator; it can provide analytical support to forecast electricity consumption accurately.     

Prediction of flyrock induced by mine blasting using a novel kernel-based extreme learning machine

Blasting is a common method of breaking rock in surface mines. Although the fragmentation with proper size is the main purpose, other undesirable effects such as flyrock are inevitable. This study is carried out to evaluate the capability of a novel kernel-based extreme learning machine algorithm, called kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), by which the flyrock distance (FRD) is predicted. Furthermore, the other three data-driven models including local weighted linear regression (LWLR), response surface methodology (RSM) and boosted regression tree (BRT) are also developed to validate the main model. A database gathered from three quarry sites in Malaysia is employed to construct the proposed models using 73 sets of spacing, burden, stemming length and powder factor data as inputs and FRD as target. Afterwards, the validity of the models is evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of some statistical metrics and validation tools. Finally, the results verify that the proposed KELM model on account of highest correlation coefficient (R) and lowest root mean square error (RMSE) is more computationally efficient, leading to better predictive capability compared to LWLR, RSM and BRT models for all data sets.     

边坡位移非线性时间序列采用支持向量机算法的智能建模与预测研究

介绍了人工智能领域最新的基于结构风险最小化原理的数据挖掘算法---支持向量机算法,运用Matlab语言编写了程序,采用不同的核函数对具体的边坡工程实例作了计算,并将人工神经元网络计算结果与之对比,可见无论是在学习或预测精度方面,支持向量机算法较基于经验风险最小化原理的人工神经元网络算法都有很大的优越性,可以运用于实际工程。     

Prediction of flyrock distance induced by mine blasting using a novel Harris Hawks optimization-based multi-layer perceptron neural network

In mining or construction projects, for exploitation of hard rock with high strength properties, blasting is frequently applied to breaking or moving them using high explosive energy. However, use of explosives may lead to the flyrock phenomenon. Flyrock can damage structures or nearby equipment in the surrounding areas and inflict harm to humans, especially workers in the working sites. Thus, prediction of flyrock is of high importance. In this investigation, examination and estimation/forecast of flyrock distance induced by blasting through the application of five artificial intelligent algorithms were carried out. One hundred and fifty-two blasting events in three open-pit granite mines in Johor, Malaysia, were monitored to collect field data. The collected data include blasting parameters and rock mass properties. Site-specific weathering index (WI), geological strength index (GSI) and rock quality designation (RQD) are rock mass properties. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and hybrid models including Harris Hawks optimization-based MLP (known as HHO-MLP) and whale optimization algorithm-based MLP (known as WOA-MLP) were developed. The performance of various models was assessed through various performance indices, including a10-index, coefficient of determination (R²), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), variance accounted for (VAF), and root squared error (RSE). The a10-index values for MLP, RF, SVM, HHO-MLP and WOA-MLP are 0.953, 0.933, 0.937, 0.991 and 0.972, respectively. R² of HHO-MLP is 0.998, which achieved the best performance among all five machine learning (ML) models.     

Prediction of mode I fracture toughness of rock using linear multiple regression and gene expression programming

Prediction of mode I fracture toughness(KIC) of rock is of significant importance in rock engineering analyses. In this study, linear multiple regression(LMR) and gene expression programming(GEP)methods were used to provide a reliable relationship to determine mode I fracture toughness of rock. The presented model was developed based on 60 datasets taken from the previous literature. To predict fracture parameters, three mechanical parameters of rock mass including uniaxial compressive strength(...