The benchmarks of carbon emissions and policy implications for China's cities: Case of Nanjing

The development of urbanization is accelerating in China, and there are great pressures and opportunities in cities to reduce carbon emissions. An emissions inventory is a basic requirement for analyzing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), their potential reduction and to realize low-carbon development of cities. This study describes a method to establish a GHGs emissions inventory in Chinese cities for 6 emission sources including industrial energy consumption, transportation, household energy consumption, commercial energy consumption, industrial processes and waste. Nanjing city was selected as a representative case to analyze the characteristics of carbon emissions in Chinese cities. The results show that carbon emissions in Nanjing have increased nearly 50% during the last decade. The three largest GHGs contributors were industrial energy consumption, industrial processes and transportation, which contributed 37–44%, 35–40% and 6–10%, respectively, to the total GHGs emissions. Per GDP carbon emissions decreased by 55% from 2002 to 2009, and the per capita and per GDP carbon emissions were comparable or even lower than the world average levels. These results have important policy implications for Chinese cities to control their carbon emissions.     

Metropolitan density,energy efficiency and carbon emissions: Multi-attribute tradeoffs and their policy implications

Of all the potential benefits of urban containment, compaction, and densification, just two are the central focus here: attainment of greater energy efficiency and reduction in carbon emissions. In cities these are largely associated with the transport and building sectors. This paper probes the form-efficiency relation in the transport sector across 57 census-defined urbanized areas in the United States in 2000. Thirty-six of the forty largest are included. Increase in core area population density is correlated with modest gain in energy efficiency in the urban transport sector and modest decrease in its carbon emissions. Densification's lagged effects related to travel rationalization and growth in transit receptivity may increase overall metro transport energy efficiency beyond the degree revealed here. These impacts are associated with two off-setting negative externalities: (1) diminished housing affordability, and (2) increased roadway congestion. Each may moderate over time. Such effects are non-additive, owing to a difference of metrics. Elevated CAFE standards provoking new transport technologies may reduce total energy consumption and associated emissions ceteris paribus, lessening densification's marginal efficiency payoff while magnifying the significance of densification's opportunity costs. Categories of policy interventions to promote metro-scale energy efficiencies and emissions reductions, with and without urban densification, conclude the paper.     

Changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector: Decomposition and attribution analysis

The industrial sector accounts for 70% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions in China. To gain a better understanding of the changes in carbon intensity in China's industrial sector, this study first utilized logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis to disentangle the carbon intensity into three influencing factors, including the emission coefficient effect, the energy intensity effect, and the structure effect. Then, the analysis was furthered to explore the contributions of individual industrial sub-sectors to each factor by using an extension of the decomposition method proposed in Choi and Ang (2012). The results indicate that from 1996 to 2012, the energy intensity effect was the dominant factor in reducing carbon intensity, of which chemicals, iron and steel, metal and machinery, and cement and ceramics were the most representative sub-sectors. The structure effect did not show a strong impact on carbon intensity. The emission coefficient effect gradually increased the carbon intensity, mainly due to the expansion of electricity consumption, particularly in the metal and machinery and chemicals sub-sectors. The findings suggest that differentiated policies and measures should be considered for various industrial sub-sectors to maximize the energy efficiency potential. Moreover, readjusting the industrial structure and promoting clean and renewable energy is also urgently required to further reduce carbon intensity in China's industrial sector.     

Upgrading or downgrading: China's regional carbon emission intensity evolution and its determinants

One of China's major national targets is to environmentally upgrade its economy. In this paper, we define environmental upgrading as lowering the carbon intensity. The disparities among China's regions suggest to examine China's carbon emission performance at the regional level. For this purpose, we use inter-regional input-output tables (for 2002, 2007, and 2012) that distinguish processing exports from ordinary exports. The regional emission intensities (EIs) show environmental downgrading in the period 2002–2007 and upgrading during 2007–2012. To identify the determinants of the evolution of regional EIs, we have employed a multiplicative structural decomposition analysis. Changes in direct emission coefficients and changes in production technology are found to be the major determinants. However, next to these standard determinants, we also evaluate the effects on the changes in regional EIs of changes in inter-regional trade and changes in inter-regional spillovers. Changing inter-regional trade is found to have increased the EI significantly in western and central regions. This suggests that more “dirty” production was shifted from coastal to inland regions. Our study yields clear policy recommendations for achieving China's transformation to a low-carbon economy.     

Synergizing China's energy and carbon mitigation goals: General equilibrium modeling and policy assessment

In this work, we enrich the technical details of the energy sector by extending the conventional framework of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, and we take into account uncertainty regarding fossil-fueled technologies and endogenous nonfossil energy technological change, which provides us with formidable benefits to explore the policy synergy of China's multiple energy development and carbon control targets. We find that carbon pricing policy plays a consistently negative role in economic growth, while the economic impacts of nonfossil investment incentives differ in their policy stringency. Compared to energy intensity reduction goals that could be easily attained given the baseline effort, achieving carbon peaking targets may be relatively difficult without additional policy intervention, and the policy efforts required to reach energy consumption control targets in 2030 and nonfossil energy development targets in 2050 are even stricter. This research also identifies significant policy effect differences in carbon pricing and nonfossil investment incentives.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.     

China's energy resources: Potential supply,problems, and implications

If the People's Republic of China is to achieve its current modernization and economic objectives, primary energy production in the nation must increase significantly by the year 2000. To support and sustain this projected rapid economic growth, indigenous supplies of primary energy resources will have to be developed at rates greater than those of today. This paper presents a preliminary systematic resource assessment of China's primary energy resources by province. Petroleum, natural gas, coal and uranium are assessed and examined in terms of availability and future production potential. China's policies for long-term development of these energy resources are also analysed, with particular emphasis on the scope of problems that may be encountered during future development.     

Urban energy use and carbon emissions from cities in China and policy implications

Urban areas contain 40% of the population and contribute 75% of the Chinese national economy. Thus, a better understanding of urban energy uses is necessary for Chinese decision-makers at various levels to address energy security, climate change mitigation, and local pollution abatement. Therefore, this paper addresses three key questions: What is the urban contribution to China's energy usage and CO₂ emissions? What is the contribution of large cities, and what alternate energy–economy pathways are they following? How have energy uses and CO₂ emissions transformed in the last two decades in key Chinese cities? This three-tier analysis illustrates the changes in urban energy uses and CO₂ emissions in China. The results show that the urban contributions make up 84% of China's commercial energy usage. The 35 largest cities in China, which contain 18% of the population, contribute 40% of China's energy uses and CO₂ emissions. In four provincial cities, the per capita energy usage and CO₂ emissions have increased several-fold. Rapid progress was made in reducing the carbon intensity of economic activities in cities throughout the 1990s, but alarmingly, such progress has either slowed down or been reversed in the last few years. These results have important policy implications.     

China's fuel economy standards for passenger vehicles: Rationale, policy process, and impacts

China issued its first Fuel Economy Standards (FES) for light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPV) in September 2004, and the first and second phases of the FES took effective in July 2005 and January 2008, respectively. The stringency of the Chinese FES ranks third globally, following the Japanese and European standards. In this paper, we first review the policy-making background, including the motivations, key players, and the process; and then explain the content and the features of the FES and why there was no compliance flexibility built into it. Next, we assess the various aspects of the standard's impact, including fuel economy improvement, technology changes, shift of market composition, and overall fuel savings. Lastly, we comment on the prospect of tightening the existing FES and summarize the complementary policies that have been adopted or may be considered by the Chinese government for further promoting efficient vehicles and reducing transport energy consumption. The Chinese experience is highly relevant for countries that are also experiencing or anticipating rapid growth in personal vehicles, those wishing to moderate an increase in oil demand, or those desirous of vehicle technology upgrades.     

The hydrogen economy: Future policy implications

The acceptance of hydrogen as a viable energy option has ramifications which go far beyond the scientific and technical. Consistency with national goals, legal, social and environmental consequences and the implications for the entire energy resource base are some of the aspects which must be carefully considered in pursuing hydrogen as an energy option.     

The energy intensity target in China's 11th Five-Year Plan period—Local implementation and achievements in Shanxi Province

Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efficiency in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective.     

Biomass and China's carbon emissions: A missing piece of carbon decomposition

A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: (1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; (2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces behind these phenomena. However, since 2002, China's carbon emissions have resumed their growth at an even greater rate. This paper investigates China's carbon emissions during 1971–2003, with particular focus on the role of biomass, and the fall and resurgence in emissions since the mid-1990s. We use an extended Kaya identity and the well-established logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI I) method. Carbon emissions are decomposed into effects of various driving forces. We find that (1) a shift from biomass to commercial energy increases carbon emissions by a magnitude comparable to that of the increase in emissions due to population growth, (2) the technological effect and scale effect due to per-capita gross domestic products (GDP) growth are different in the pre-reform period versus the post-reform period, (3) the positive effect of population growth has been decreasing over the entire period, and (4) the fall in emissions in the late 1990s and resurgence in the early 2000s may be overstated due to inaccurate statistics.     

Determinants and policy implications for household electricity-saving behaviour: Evidence from Beijing,China

This research sets out to explore the possibilities for further saving in household electricity consumption through a study of the residents' willingness and behavioural characteristics in electricity saving, as applied within a Chinese context. Based on an extensive literature review, the authors argue that economic benefits, policy and social norms, and past experience may have a positive correlation with household electricity-saving behaviour, while the discomfort caused by electricity-saving activities, may exert a negative effect on it. Through a sample of 816 randomly selected residents in Beijing, the propositions are examined using logit regression analysis. The conclusions support the ideas, concerning both the positive influence of economic benefits, policy and social norms, and past experience as they affect broader electricity-saving behaviour, and the negative influence of the discomfort caused by electricity-saving activities. Finally, some inferences are drawn, and suggestions are offered for policy makers and further studies.     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

Clean coal use in China: Challenges and policy implications

Energy consumption in China is currently dominated by coal, a major source of air pollution and carbon emissions. The utilization of clean coal technologies is a likely strategic choice for China at present, however, although there have been many successes in clean coal technologies worldwide, they are not widely used in China. This paper examines the challenges that China faces in the implementation of such clean coal technologies, where the analysis shows that those drivers that have a negative bearing on the utilization of clean coal in China are mainly non-technical factors such as the low legal liability of atmospheric pollution related to coal use, and the lack of laws and mandatory regulations for clean coal use in China. Policies for the development of clean coal technologies are in their early stages in China, and the lack of laws and detailed implementation requirements for clean coal require resolution in order to accelerate China's clean coal developments. Currently, environmental pollution has gained widespread attention from the wider Chinese populace and taking advantage of this opportunity provides a space in which to regain the initiative to raise people’s awareness of clean coal products, and improve enterprises’ enthusiasm for clean coal.     

Consumer preference not to choose: Methodological and policy implications

Residential consumers remain reluctant to choose new electricity suppliers. Even the most successful jurisdictions, four US states and other countries, have had to adopt extensive consumer education procedures that serve largely to confirm that choosing electricity suppliers is daunting. Electricity is not unique in this respect; numerous studies find that consumers are generally reluctant to switch brands, even when they are well-informed about product characteristics. If consumers prefer not to choose, opening regulated markets can reduce welfare, even for some consumers who do switch, as the incumbent can exploit this preference by raising price above the formerly regulated level. Policies to open markets might be successful even if limited to industrial and commercial customers, with residential prices based on those in nominally competitive wholesale markets.     

On China's energy intensity statistics: Toward a comprehensive and transparent indicator

A transparent and comprehensive statistical system in China would provide an important basis for enabling a better understanding of the country. This paper focuses on energy intensity (EI), which is one of the most important indicators of China. It firstly reviews China's GDP and energy statistics, showing that China has made great improvements in recent years. The means by which EI data are released and adjusted are then explained. It shows that EI data releases do not provide complete data for calculating EI and constant GDP, which may reduce policy transparency and comprehensiveness. This paper then conducts an EI calculation method that is based on official sources and that respects the data availability of different data release times. It finds that, in general, China's EI statistics can be considered as reliable because most of the results generated by author's calculations match the figures in the official releases. However, two data biases were identified, which may necessitate supplementary information on related constant GDP values used in the official calculation of EI data. The paper concludes by proposing short- and long-term measures for improving EI statistics to provide a transparent and comprehensive EI indicator.     

Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies.     

Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO₂ analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment.