The benchmarks of carbon emissions and policy implications for China's cities: Case of Nanjing

The development of urbanization is accelerating in China, and there are great pressures and opportunities in cities to reduce carbon emissions. An emissions inventory is a basic requirement for analyzing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), their potential reduction and to realize low-carbon development of cities. This study describes a method to establish a GHGs emissions inventory in Chinese cities for 6 emission sources including industrial energy consumption, transportation, household energy consumption, commercial energy consumption, industrial processes and waste. Nanjing city was selected as a representative case to analyze the characteristics of carbon emissions in Chinese cities. The results show that carbon emissions in Nanjing have increased nearly 50% during the last decade. The three largest GHGs contributors were industrial energy consumption, industrial processes and transportation, which contributed 37–44%, 35–40% and 6–10%, respectively, to the total GHGs emissions. Per GDP carbon emissions decreased by 55% from 2002 to 2009, and the per capita and per GDP carbon emissions were comparable or even lower than the world average levels. These results have important policy implications for Chinese cities to control their carbon emissions.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO₂-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development.     

China's fuel economy standards for passenger vehicles: Rationale, policy process, and impacts

China issued its first Fuel Economy Standards (FES) for light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPV) in September 2004, and the first and second phases of the FES took effective in July 2005 and January 2008, respectively. The stringency of the Chinese FES ranks third globally, following the Japanese and European standards. In this paper, we first review the policy-making background, including the motivations, key players, and the process; and then explain the content and the features of the FES and why there was no compliance flexibility built into it. Next, we assess the various aspects of the standard's impact, including fuel economy improvement, technology changes, shift of market composition, and overall fuel savings. Lastly, we comment on the prospect of tightening the existing FES and summarize the complementary policies that have been adopted or may be considered by the Chinese government for further promoting efficient vehicles and reducing transport energy consumption. The Chinese experience is highly relevant for countries that are also experiencing or anticipating rapid growth in personal vehicles, those wishing to moderate an increase in oil demand, or those desirous of vehicle technology upgrades.     

The hydrogen economy: Future policy implications

The acceptance of hydrogen as a viable energy option has ramifications which go far beyond the scientific and technical. Consistency with national goals, legal, social and environmental consequences and the implications for the entire energy resource base are some of the aspects which must be carefully considered in pursuing hydrogen as an energy option.     

Biomass and China's carbon emissions: A missing piece of carbon decomposition

A number of previous studies on China's carbon emissions have mainly focused on two facts: (1) the continuous growth in emissions up till the middle of the 1990s; (2) the recent stability of emissions from 1996 to 2001. Decomposition analysis has been widely used to explore the driving forces behind these phenomena. However, since 2002, China's carbon emissions have resumed their growth at an even greater rate. This paper investigates China's carbon emissions during 1971–2003, with particular focus on the role of biomass, and the fall and resurgence in emissions since the mid-1990s. We use an extended Kaya identity and the well-established logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI I) method. Carbon emissions are decomposed into effects of various driving forces. We find that (1) a shift from biomass to commercial energy increases carbon emissions by a magnitude comparable to that of the increase in emissions due to population growth, (2) the technological effect and scale effect due to per-capita gross domestic products (GDP) growth are different in the pre-reform period versus the post-reform period, (3) the positive effect of population growth has been decreasing over the entire period, and (4) the fall in emissions in the late 1990s and resurgence in the early 2000s may be overstated due to inaccurate statistics.     

The energy intensity target in China's 11th Five-Year Plan period—Local implementation and achievements in Shanxi Province

Facing the mounting pressure on energy security and increasing environmental concerns about air pollution and climate change, the Chinese government set a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity in its 11th Five-Year Plan period (FYP, 2006–2010). In this paper we use Shanxi province to illustrate how policies and measures are implemented in practice at a provincial level as a response to the National FYP issued by the central government. Local policies are described and their effects are analyzed. We compare reported energy saving achievements with our own estimates and conclude that the achievements in Shanxi probably have been substantial since the start of the 11th FYP period. The most important measures taken by provincial and local governments seem to be in the secondary sector, such as Top-200/Top-1000 program and phasing out outdated technologies. However, Shanxi has still a long way to go to achieve satisfactory energy use. Further improvement of energy intensity will require continuing efforts. Although many measures are necessary, improving the energy efficiency in heavy industries and reducing the dependence on these industries should be particularly effective.     

Determinants and policy implications for household electricity-saving behaviour: Evidence from Beijing,China

This research sets out to explore the possibilities for further saving in household electricity consumption through a study of the residents' willingness and behavioural characteristics in electricity saving, as applied within a Chinese context. Based on an extensive literature review, the authors argue that economic benefits, policy and social norms, and past experience may have a positive correlation with household electricity-saving behaviour, while the discomfort caused by electricity-saving activities, may exert a negative effect on it. Through a sample of 816 randomly selected residents in Beijing, the propositions are examined using logit regression analysis. The conclusions support the ideas, concerning both the positive influence of economic benefits, policy and social norms, and past experience as they affect broader electricity-saving behaviour, and the negative influence of the discomfort caused by electricity-saving activities. Finally, some inferences are drawn, and suggestions are offered for policy makers and further studies.     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

Consumer preference not to choose: Methodological and policy implications

Residential consumers remain reluctant to choose new electricity suppliers. Even the most successful jurisdictions, four US states and other countries, have had to adopt extensive consumer education procedures that serve largely to confirm that choosing electricity suppliers is daunting. Electricity is not unique in this respect; numerous studies find that consumers are generally reluctant to switch brands, even when they are well-informed about product characteristics. If consumers prefer not to choose, opening regulated markets can reduce welfare, even for some consumers who do switch, as the incumbent can exploit this preference by raising price above the formerly regulated level. Policies to open markets might be successful even if limited to industrial and commercial customers, with residential prices based on those in nominally competitive wholesale markets.     

On China's energy intensity statistics: Toward a comprehensive and transparent indicator

A transparent and comprehensive statistical system in China would provide an important basis for enabling a better understanding of the country. This paper focuses on energy intensity (EI), which is one of the most important indicators of China. It firstly reviews China's GDP and energy statistics, showing that China has made great improvements in recent years. The means by which EI data are released and adjusted are then explained. It shows that EI data releases do not provide complete data for calculating EI and constant GDP, which may reduce policy transparency and comprehensiveness. This paper then conducts an EI calculation method that is based on official sources and that respects the data availability of different data release times. It finds that, in general, China's EI statistics can be considered as reliable because most of the results generated by author's calculations match the figures in the official releases. However, two data biases were identified, which may necessitate supplementary information on related constant GDP values used in the official calculation of EI data. The paper concludes by proposing short- and long-term measures for improving EI statistics to provide a transparent and comprehensive EI indicator.     

Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984–2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.     

Inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution,carbon intensity,and energy-related CO2 reduction: Empirical evidence from China

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction, which is the central issue in addressing global warming, depends on the extent that clean energy can substitute for CO₂ emitting coal and non-energy factors can substitute for energy factor. The purposes of this paper are to empirically investigate inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution in China and to evaluate the determinants of China's energy-related carbon intensity as well as mitigation effects of carbon tax. Considering China's rapid increase in energy consumption and the slow adjustment in substitution, the two-stage estimation method and the dynamic error correction mechanism are employed in this study. The empirical results suggest substitutability among different types of energy sources as well as substitutability among energy, labor, and capital. The magnitude of cross-price elasticities indicates that the substitutions are inelastic, which limits the scope of the Chinese government to implement substitution strategy aiming at energy conservation and environmental management. China's carbon intensity declined during 1985–2012, most of which can be attributed to labor substitution and energy price increase. However, carbon-intensive technology being embodied in China's capital investment (energy consuming equipment) has contributed to the increase in carbon intensity. A carbon tax of RMB 50/tonne could reduce 332.9 million tonnes CO₂ emissions on the basis of 2012. In addition, if ignoring the feedback between inter-factor/inter-fuel substitutions, CO₂ mitigation potential would be underestimated.     

California's greenhouse gas law,Assembly Bill 1493: Deficiencies,alternatives, and implications for regulatory climate policy

California's Air Resources Board has finalized regulations implementing Assembly Bill (AB) 1493, which requires “maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles”. By 2030, when California's light-duty vehicle stock has been substantially replaced by regulation-compliant vehicles, total emissions from regulated vehicles are projected to be reduced by 27% relative to “business-as-usual”, but are nevertheless expected to be 8.7% higher than 2004 emissions. If an 8.7% increase truly represents the “maximum feasible and cost-effective” emissions reduction from transportation vehicles, then global climate stabilization clearly will not be attained within limits of “feasibility” and “cost-effectiveness”, and climate sustainability will only be achievable through severely draconian measures. On the other hand, if significantly greater emissions reduction would be feasible and cost-effective, then the AB 1493 regulations fail to satisfy the legislative policy mandate and the task is to find a regulatory mechanism that will. The thesis of this paper is that the regulations do not satisfy the mandate for several reasons, the most important being the conflicting policy objectives of the “cost-constrained” legislative mandate and the “quantity-constrained”, standard-based regulatory instrument. An alternative policy instrument that would better fit legislative policy and environmental objectives would be a feebate-type system (although not necessarily a conventional vehicle feebate).     

Energy demand analysis of Port-Harcourt refinery,Nigeria and its policy implications

This paper analyses energy demand of Port-Harcourt refinery, Nigeria, based on information obtained from its annual publications, backed-up by spot interviews. The analytical approach adopted for the study involves the calculation of energy intensities to determine the refinery's annual energy demand for various energy types considered from 1989 to 2004. The results showed that the actual energy demand per year for processing crude oil into refined products, exceeded, in varying degrees the stipulated refinery standard of 4 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per 100 BOE. It varied from 4.28–8.58 BOE per 100 BOE. In terms of energy demand efficiency, this implies very poor performance of the refinery during the 16-year period under investigation. The excess demand which translates to an average daily wastage of about 2005 BOE is estimated to be $56,196 (US Dollars) based on the 2003 OPEC basket price of $28.0213 per barrel. Lack of optimal fuel utilization-mix and non-compliance with the Turn-Around-Maintenance schedules were attributed to the refinery's inefficient energy demand pattern.     

Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target—A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level

Following the announcement of the China's 2020 national target for the reduction of the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% compared with 2005 levels, Chinese provincial governments prepared to restructure provincial energy policy and plan their contribution to realizing the State reduction target.     

Ocean carbon sinks and international climate policy

Terrestrial vegetation sinks have entered the Kyoto Protocol as offsets for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but ocean sinks have escaped attention. Ocean sinks are as unexplored and uncertain as were the terrestrial sinks at the time of negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol. It is not unlikely that certain countries will advocate the inclusion of ocean carbon sinks to reduce their emission reduction obligations in post-2012 negotiations. We use a simple model of the international market for carbon dioxide emissions to evaluate who would gain or loose from allowing for ocean carbon sinks. Our analysis is restricted to information on anthropogenic carbon sequestration within the exclusive economic zone of a country. We use information on the actual carbon flux and derive the human-induced uptake for the period from 1990 onwards. Like the carbon sequestration of business as usual forest management activities, natural ocean carbon sequestration applies at zero costs. The total amount of anthropogenic ocean carbon sequestration is large, also in the exclusive economic zones. As a consequence, it substantially alters the costs of emission reduction for most countries. Countries such as Australia, Denmark, France, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway and Portugal would gain substantially, and a large number of countries would benefit too. Current net exporters of carbon permits, particularly Russia, would gain less and oppose the inclusion of ocean carbon sinks.     

2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。     

What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate: 1997–2006?

China is the second largest energy consumer in the world. During 1997–2002, China's energy intensity declined by 33%. However, it rose by 10.7% over 2003–2005, and declined by 1.2% in 2006. What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate so drastically? Industry accounts for approximately 70% of the total energy consumption in China. In this paper, we decompose China's industrial energy intensity changes between 1997 and 2002 into sectoral structural effects and efficiency effects (measured by sectoral energy intensities at two-digit level and including the shifts of product mix in the sub-sector or firm level), using Törnqvist and Sato–Vartia Index methods. The results show that in this period, efficiency effects possibly contributed to a majority of the decline, while the contribution from structural effects was less. During 2003–2005, the excessive expansion of high-energy consuming sub-sectors and the high investment ratio were foremost sources of the increasing energy intensity. Attributed to the government efforts, the energy intensity has started to decline slightly since July 2006. In future, to save more energy, in addition to technical progress, China should attach more importance to optimizing its sectoral structure, and lowering its investment ratio.