A review on the pattern of electricity generation and emission in Indonesia from 1987 to 2009

The level of energy demand plays a fundamental role in today's society. It is a vital input in supporting the physical and social development of a country, as well as national economic growth. Looking at the energy demand scenario in present time, the global energy consumption is likely to grow faster than the population growth across the world. Like any other energy sectors, electricity demand has significantly increased in Indonesia over the past years. Currently, there are six types of power plants in the country. The main sources of electrical energy are generated using the gas turbines, steam turbines, combined cycles, geothermal, diesel engine and hydro-powers. Most of Indonesia's power plants are using fossil fuel for electricity generation. Substantial growth in domestic energy demand, however, would be a major challenge for Indonesia's energy supply sector in the future. Over the past decade, thermal power plants generated about 86.69% of electricity and about 13.31% was generated by renewable energy such as hydro-power and geothermal in 2009. The purpose of this study is to chronicle and show a clear view of 23 years trend of Indonesia's electricity generation industry. Furthermore, the capacity of power generation installed and electricity generation from 1987 to 2009 has been gathered for this study. The total pollutant emissions and emission per unit electricity generation for each type of power plants have been also calculated using emission factors. Also, the pattern of electricity generation and emission has been presented. The results show that the implementation and contribution of combined cycle power plants should be increased together with renewable energy and natural gas which are recommended to reduce greenhouse gas emission.     

Past,present and future status of electricity in Turkey and the share of energy sources

With a young and growing population, low per capita electricity consumption, rapid urbanization and—until recently—strong economic growth, Turkey for nearly two decades has been one of the fastest growing power markets in the world. Prior to Turkey's recent severe economic difficulties, Turkey's electricity consumption had been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey make a rapid action to supply electricity demand. Installed power generation capacity in Turkey reached about 31.84 GW in 2002. However, the growth in electricity generation has remained below the electricity demand, which made Turkey a net importer of electricity since, 1996. Projections show that Turkey's electricity consumption would continue over the next 15 years.     

Optimized Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies Into Jordan's Power Plant Portfolio

Jordan has experienced a significant increase of peak load and annual electricity demand within the last years due to economic development and population growth. The experienced growth rates are expected to continue during the next decades, making large investments in new power plant capacity necessary. Additionally, when gas supply from Egypt was interrupted several times and crude oil world market prices increased simultaneously, recent years have shown painfully that a power supply exclusively based on fossil fuel imports is subject to a very high risk and can have a strong negative impact on the national budget. Electricity-sector authorities are therefore looking for suitable solutions to keep up with the increasing electricity demand, to make Jordan more independent from fossil fuel imports, and to provide electricity at reasonable prices in the future. This paper presents a methodology for the optimized integration of renewable energy (RE) technologies into Jordan's existing power plant portfolio. The core of the methodology is the mixed integer linear optimization program REMix-CEM, developed at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), which optimizes capacity expansion and unit commitment of RE and conventional power generation technologies simultaneously. After describing Jordan's electricity sector and the available RE resources, the developed methodology and the results are presented. The paper shows that by the year 2022, Jordan could generate at least 47% of its electricity demand by a well-balanced mix of concentrating solar power, utility-scale photovoltaics, and onshore wind power. This scenario would maintain the security of electricity supply, absorb present growth rates of power generation costs, and make Jordan significantly more independent of fossil fuel imports.     

Rural electrification in Zambia: A policy and institutional analysis

Zambia is well endowed with hydropower and other energy resources, which could facilitate production of electricity for both urban and rural areas of the country. The country has an installed electricity generation capacity of 1786 MW and undeveloped hydropower potential of over 6000 MW. In the last few years, demand has been growing and it is anticipated to outstrip supply in 2008. The load growth is attributed to increased mining activities and development of the industrial base. The country is also endowed with abundant natural resources such as arable land, water, minerals and wildlife. With the available resource base, electricity along with other social and economic infrastructure such as roads and telecommunications could facilitate increased economic activities. In rural areas, electricity could be used for crop irrigation, agro-processing, small-scale mining and to facilitate tourism. However, rural electrification (RE) faces many challenges such as long distances from existing power stations to targeted rural areas, low population densities, high poverty levels and low skills availability. These and other factors have contributed to continued low levels of access to electricity in rural areas of the country.     

Design and evaluation of hydrogen electricity reconversion pathways in national energy systems using spatially and temporally resolved energy system optimization

For this study, a spatially and temporally resolved optimization model was used to investigate and economically evaluate pathways for using surplus electricity to cover positive residual loads by means of different technologies to reconvert hydrogen into electricity. The associated technology pathways consist of electrolyzers, salt caverns, hydrogen pipelines, power cables, and various technologies for reconversion into electricity. The investigations were conducted based on an energy scenario for 2050 in which surplus electricity from northern Germany is available to cover the electricity grid load in the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW).A key finding of the pathway analysis is that NRW's electricity demand can be covered entirely by renewable energy sources in this scenario, which involves CO₂ savings of 44.4 million tons of CO₂/a in comparison to the positive residual load being covered from a conventional power plant fleet. The pathway involving CCGT (combined cycle gas turbines) as hydrogen reconversion option was identified as being the most cost effective (total investment: € 43.1 billion, electricity generation costs of reconversion: € 176/MWh).Large-scale hydrogen storage and reconversion as well as the use of the hydrogen infrastructure built for this purpose can make a meaningful contribution to the expansion of the electricity grid. However, for reasons of efficiency, substituting the electricity grid expansion entirely with hydrogen reconversion systems does not make sense from an economic standpoint. Furthermore, the hydrogen reconversion pathways evaluated, including large-scale storage, significantly contribute to the security of the energy supply and to secured power generation capacities.     

Modelling changes to electricity demand load duration curves as a consequence of predicted climate change for Australia

In this paper, we describe a method for constructing regional electricity demand data sets at 30 min intervals, which are consistent with climate change scenarios. Specifically, we modify a commonly used linear regression model between regional electricity demand and climate to also describe intraday variability in demand so that regional load duration curves (LDCs) can be predicted. The model is evaluated for four different Australian states that are participants in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) and the resultant data sets are found to reproduce each state's LDCs with reasonable accuracy. We also apply the demand model to CSIRO's Mk 3 global climate model data sets that have been downscaled to 60 km resolution using CSIRO's conformal-cubic atmospheric model to estimate how LDCs change as a consequence of a 1 °C increase in the average temperature of Australian state capital cities. These regional electricity demand data sets are then useful for economic modelling of electricity markets such as the NEM.     

Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications

Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country's economy and industry expand. Coal is particularly critical for China's fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies. The paper also analyzes how China's domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades, possibly affecting long-term economic growth in China, as well as world coal prices.     

Load research as a tool in electric power system planning,operation, and control—The case of Jordan

Electric load research involves the systematic collection and analysis of customers’ electrical energy as well as demand requirements by time-of-day, month, season, and year; consumption patterns; socio-economic and demographic influencing factors; and willingness-to-pay for electricity. The information created by load research are the bases for all studies and analyses conducted by the electricity company to plan, monitor, operate, and control the power system. Several attempts were carried out in Jordan to create this very important body of knowledge. Studies and analyses are conducted regularly to update the information. This paper presents the author's experience in conducting load research investigations. These efforts culminated in three distinct contributions, which are still very useful in planning and operation of the power system in Jordan. (1) The first contribution by the author is related to creating a huge database of energy and electricity consumption characteristics, trends, and driving forces. The database is being continuously updated and as such constitutes a very basic tool for all demand forecasting and other planning studies. (2) The second contribution involves the estimation of the cost of un-served (unmet) electrical energy due to outages. This estimate, which is still being used as reference for planning studies carried out in Jordan, was first coined by the author at 1.0US$/kWh. (3) The final contribution concerns the use of the information in the load research database and the accumulated experience in determining peak load composition. This effort created the “near-exact” estimate of the characteristics and constitutions of the peak load divided among the various consuming sectors as well as among the various end-uses in Jordan. The results of these contributions are still being used by the electricity sector in Jordan until this day, either as unique information or as a guideline or reference to more recent estimates. More importantly, the efforts, as outlined in the three contributions above, have established a good base and reference point for further ongoing activities to collect, analyze, and use the information by various entities in the electricity sector in Jordan. However, the efforts need to be properly coordinated and entrusted with a single entity to ensure a better quality of information and avoid conflicting decisions.     

Turkey’s short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970–2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.     

A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.     

The role of hydropower in meeting Turkey's electric energy demand

The inherent technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power, make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. These countries, such as Turkey, have a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. From the viewpoint of energy sources such as petroleum and natural gas, Turkey is not a rich country; but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity and must increase hydropower production in the near future. This paper deals with policies to meet the increasing electricity demand for Turkey. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey's renewable energy sources. The results of two case studies, whose results were not taken into consideration in calculating Turkey's hydro electric potential, are presented. Turkey's small hydro power potential is found to be an important energy source, especially in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The results of a study in which Turkey's long-term demand has been predicted are also presented. According to the results of this paper, Turkey's hydro electric potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed.     

Conservation and deferral potentials of demand side management programmes: A case study

Demand side management options (DSMO) can reduce the peak electricity demand for utilities. This reduction in demand is helpful to the utility in at least two ways: first, it minimizes the penalty costs of not being able to meet the peak demand and thus it has the potential to reduce costs; second, it also can defer the need for building new power plants and hence it can release, at least for some period of time, the scarce capital (which is especially important for the developing countries) for use in development activities elsewhere. These two benefits have been considered in detail in the paper. An analytical model has been developed to estimate the conservation potential of the DSM programmes. The model is then used to illustrate the benefit derived by deferring the construction of a new power plant. The model has been applied to the Maharashtra State Electricity Board, an electric utility in India, as a case study. Several scenarios have been constructed to account for different levels of the DSM possibilites. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out to tackle some of the uncertainties associated with the assumptions in the analysis.     

Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER,an aggregated energy system simulation model

The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in power systems worldwide, and could also be important in future mitigation strategies. It is therefore important that the electricity sector and the integration of VRE are correctly represented in energy models. This paper presents an improved methodology for representing the electricity sector in the long-term energy simulation model TIMER using a heuristic approach to find cost optimal paths given system requirements and scenario assumptions. Regional residual load duration curves have been included to simulate curtailments, storage use, backup requirements and system load factor decline as the VRE share increases. The results show that for the USA and Western Europe at lower VRE penetration levels, backup costs form the major VRE cost markup. When solar power supplies more than 30% of the electricity demand, the costs of storage and energy curtailments become increasingly important. Storage and curtailments have less influence on wind power cost markups in these regions, as wind power supply is better correlated with electricity demand. Mitigation scenarios show an increasing VRE share in the electricity mix implying also increasing contribution of VRE for peak and mid load capacity. In the current scenarios, this can be achieved by at the same time installing less capital intensive gas fired power plants. Sensitivity analysis showed that greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector in the updated model are particularly sensitive to the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power and the costs of VRE.     

Small scale impact of gas technologies on electric load management – μCHP & hybrid heat pump

To face winter electricity peaking issues the authors proposes an analysis of the potential of distributed gas technologies for demand side management. This impact has to be analysed at small scale before any large scale extrapolation. Bi-energy technologies (gas and electricity) are a path to transfer loads from one system to another. Indeed, the flexible gas infrastructure adapts to load while electricity demand variations cause risk of black-out. The impacts of two hybrid technologies are studied at transformer level with 1-min experimental load profiles of 40 dwellings equipped with micro Combined Heat and Power (μCHP) boilers over a year in France. An absolute peak load reduction by 17% at small scale is found. Different technology mixes are then simulated to assess the effect on local infrastructure. Finally a methodology for temperature dependence analysis of load is used to assess different potential benefits of gas technologies.     

A review on the pattern of electricity generation and emission in Iran from 1967 to 2008

The electricity consumption growth in Iran requires a rapid development of power plant construction. Like many other countries, most of the power plants in Iran are using fossil fuel. In the past decade, thermal power plants generated about 94% of electricity and about 6% was generated by renewable sources such as hydro-power. This study is to show a clear view of 42 years an evolutionary trend of Iran's electricity generation industry. The capacity of power generation installed and electricity generation from the years 1967 to 2008 has been gathered. The total pollutant emissions and emission per unit electricity generation for each type of power plants have also been calculated using emission factors and the pattern of electricity generation and emission has been presented. The results shown that encouraging of using renewable energy sources and increasing the contribution of the combined cycle as a best type of thermal power plants and use more natural gas is recommended to reduce emission.     

Transnational infrastructure vulnerability: The historical shaping of the 2006 European “Blackout”

The “European Blackout” of 4 November 2006 is a key reference in current debates on transnational electricity infrastructure vulnerability and governance. Several commentators have observed that to understand what happened, one must look at history. Our paper answers this call and demonstrates how historical choices, path dependencies, and ways of dealing with these afterwards, have shaped Europe's electric power infrastructure and its vulnerability geography. We show that the decentralized organization of transnational electricity infrastructure and governance, often blamed for present-day power grid fragility, was informed by reliability considerations that still count today. We also address the (meso)regional logic of the failure, foregrounding how stakeholders from different parts of Europe historically chose to collaborate in different ways, with due consequences for the 2006 disturbance and other recent blackouts. Finally, the paper observes that today's notion of transnational electricity infrastructure vulnerability, supposedly demonstrated by the 2006 blackout, is highly contested as many stakeholders find the system extremely reliable.     

Analysis of solar photovoltaic and wind power potential in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has a need for increased access to energy to enable development. In this paper we analyze the potential for large-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants in two of Afghanistan's most populous provinces (Balkh and Herat) to meet a large fraction of growing electricity demand. The results presented here represent the first quantitative analysis of potential capacity factors and energy yields of power plants in the country using measured wind speed and typical solar radiation data. Variability of resources is also investigated by comparing temporal profiles with those of electricity demand, using residual load duration curves to determine penetration and curtailment levels for various demand scenarios. We show that solar PV and wind power plants in two provinces could achieve penetration levels of 65%–70% without significant curtailment, which in turn would mean less reliance on unpredictable and unstable power purchase agreements with neighboring countries, longer life of limited domestic fossil fuel resources, and lower imports of diesel fuel, thus avoiding rising costs and detrimental environmental impacts. Our results point to an alternative development pathway from that of previous recommendations for conventional thermal power plants, controversial hydroelectric projects, and a significant dependence on imported power.     

Optimum size of thermal power stations

It is well known that the price per unit of generated electrical energy decreases with increasing size of the generator, which implies longer transmission lines and hence larger transmission losses. Considering both these facts, the optimum size of a thermal power station has been obtained by using life-cycle costing analysis; the demand is proposed to be met by a base load generator and a peak load generator. The dependence of the investment ratio (the ratio of present worth of net income to the capital investment) on relevant parameters has been studied. It is seen that there exist optimum sizes of base load generator and peak load generator of a power station, for a given load density. The effect of electricity price, coal price and escalation rates on the optimum sizes has also been investigated. The analysis has been made for constant demand as well as for growing demand. The effect of the ratio of base load to peak load on the economics has also been investigated. The cost data from a recent study in India have been used.     

Assessment of H2- and H2O-based renewable energy-buffering systems in minor islands

The paper assesses the energy and environmental performance of two solutions designed to complement renewable energy (RE) technologies, in stand-alone power system (SAPS) configuration typical of minor Mediterranean islands, by converting the available RE surplus. The studied SAPS, based on the Ventotene island demographic, meteorological and load data, features high renewable energy penetration onto the load power demand, i.e. up to 55.25% share of peak power capacity. Transient models have been developed to simulate the storage process of winter renewable energy surplus and the time-dependent matching among SAPS electric demand and the stochastic renewable power contributions combined with energy surplus conversion systems. The study compares a hydrogen-based system and a desalinated water-production system, proposed as two effective alternatives for renewable energy seasonal buffering in an island context. The comparative analysis of the time-dependent system's behaviour has been investigated with an hourly distribution over the period of one reference year, in terms of fuel consumption and hydrogen system energy storage or desalination capacity. The assessment is carried out by taking performance indicators, SAPS fuel savings, as well as stored and dump power data. The study demonstrates the suitability of both the models for the winter renewable energy buffer, in order to improve to the matching of peak energy and water demands.     

基于峰谷分时电价的某工业园区多能互补系统多情景运营优化模型

为了提升用户负荷需求与清洁能源供应匹配度,需采取需求响应措施,改变用户用电习惯以配合清洁能源发电。基于此,先构建了综合考虑机组出力和用户负荷转移意愿的需求响应价格驱动模型,制定了某工业园区峰谷分时电价;其次,以峰谷差、清洁能源消纳量和工业园区售电商收益为多目标函数,设计了多情景优化模型;最后,利用GAMS软件进行算例分析。结果表明,工业园区多能互补系统在促进清洁能源消纳等方面具有一定的积极作用,但若要进一步提升清洁能源利用量,实施园区峰谷分时电价尤为必要,分时电价的实施促使清洁能源消纳量至少增加了116.47MW,进一步验证了所提模型的有效性和可行性,为工业园区多能互补系统中提升清洁能源利用率提供了重要参考。