Forecasting based on neural network approach of solar potential in Turkey

As Turkey lies near the sunny belt between 36 and 42°N latitudes, most of the locations in Turkey receive abundant solar energy. Average annual temperature is 18–20 °C on the south coast, falls down to 14–16 °C on the west coast, and fluctuates 4–18 °C in the central parts. The yearly average solar radiation is 3.6 kW h/m² day, and the total yearly radiation period is 2610 h. The main focus of this study is put forward to solar energy potential in Turkey using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Scaled conjugate gradient (SCG), Pola-Ribiere conjugate gradient (CGP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) learning algorithms and logistic sigmoid transfer function were used in the network. In order to train the neural network, meteorological data for last 4 years (2000–2003) from 12 cities (Çanakkale, Kars, Hakkari, Sakarya, Erzurum, Zonguldak, Balıkesir, Artvin, Çorum, Konya, Siirt, Tekirdağ) spread over Turkey were used as training (nine stations) and testing (three stations) data. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration, and mean temperature) is used as input to the network. Solar radiation is the output. The maximum mean absolute percentage error was found to be less than 6.78% and R² values to be about 99.7768% for the testing stations. These values were found to be 5.283 and 99.897% for the training stations. The trained and tested ANN models show greater accuracy for evaluating solar resource posibilities in regions where a network of monitoring stations have not been established in Turkey. The predictions from ANN models could enable scientists to locate and design solar energy systems in Turkey and determine the best solar technology.     

Artificial neural network analysis of world green energy use

This paper focuses on the analysis of world green energy consumption through artificial neural networks (ANN). In addition, the consumption is also analyzed of world primary energy including fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. A feed-forward back-propagation ANN is used for training and learning processes by taking into consideration data from the literature of world energy consumption from 1965 to 2004. Also, an ANN approach for forecasting world green energy consumption to the year 2050 is presented, and the consumption equations for different energy sources are derived. The environmental aspects of green energy and fossil fuels are discussed in detail. The resulting ANN-based equation curve profiles verify that the available economic reserves of fossil fuel resources are limited, and become “depleted” in the near future. It is expected that world green energy consumption will reach almost 62.74 EJ by 2010, and be on average 32.29% of total energy use between 2005 and 2025. However, world green energy and natural gas consumption will continue increasing after 2050, while world oil and coal consumption are expected to remain relatively stable after 2025 and 2045, respectively. The ANN approach appears to be a suitable method for forecasting energy consumption data, should be utilized in efforts to model world energy consumption.     

Artificial neural network analysis of liquid desiccant dehumidification system

The dehumidification process involves simultaneous heat and mass transfer and reliable transfer coefficients are required in order to analyze the system. This has been proved to be difficult and many assumptions are made to simplify the analysis. The present research proposes the use of ANN based model in order to simulate the relationship between inlet and outlet parameters of the dehumidifier. For the analysis, randomly packed dehumidifier with lithium chloride as the liquid desiccant is chosen. A multilayer ANN is used to investigate the performance of dehumidifier. For training ANN models, data is obtained from analytical equations. Eight parameters are used as inputs to the ANN, namely: air and desiccant flow rates, air and desiccant inlet temperatures, air inlet humidity, desiccant inlet concentration, dimensionless temperature ratio, and inlet temperature of the cooling water. The outputs of the ANN are the water condensation rate and the outlet desiccant concentration as well as its temperature. ANN predictions for these parameters are validated well with experimental values available in the literature with R² value in the range of 0.9251-0.9660. This study shows that liquid desiccant dehumidification system can be alternatively modeled using ANN with a reasonable degree of accuracy.     

Artificial neural network analysis of heat pumps using refrigerant mixtures

In this study, we have investigated the performance of a vapor compression heat pump with different ratios of R12/R22 refrigerant mixtures using artificial neural networks (ANN). Experimental studies were completed to obtain training and test data. Mixing ratio, evaporator inlet temperature and condenser pressure were used as input layer, while the outputs are coefficient of performance (COP) and rational efficiency (RE). The back propagation learning algorithm with three different variants and logistic sigmoid transfer function were used in the network. It is shown that the R² values are about 0.9999 and the RMS errors are smaller than 0.006. With these results, we believe that the ANN can be used for prediction of COP and RE as an accurate method in a heat pump.     

Artificial neural network estimation of global solar radiation using air temperature and relative humidity

Measured air temperature and relative humidity values between 1998 and 2002 for Abha city in Saudi Arabia were used for the estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) in future time domain using artificial neural network method. The estimations of GSR were made using three combinations of data sets namely: (i) day of the year and daily maximum air temperature as inputs and GSR as output, (ii) day of the year and daily mean air temperature as inputs and GSR as output and (iii) time day of the year, daily mean air temperature and relative humidity as inputs and GSR as output. The measured data between 1998 and 2001 were used for training the neural networks while the remaining 240 days’ data from 2002 as testing data. The testing data were not used in training the neural networks. Obtained results show that neural networks are well capable of estimating GSR from temperature and relative humidity. This can be used for estimating GSR for locations where only temperature and humidity data are available.     

Modelling of solar energy potential in Nigeria using an artificial neural network model

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) based model for prediction of solar energy potential in Nigeria (lat. 4–14°N, log. 2–15°E) was developed. Standard multilayered, feed-forward, back-propagation neural networks with different architecture were designed using neural toolbox for MATLAB. Geographical and meteorological data of 195 cities in Nigeria for period of 10 years (1983–1993) from the NASA geo-satellite database were used for the training and testing the network. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration, mean temperature, and relative humidity) were used as inputs to the network, while the solar radiation intensity was used as the output of the network. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the ANN predictions and actual mean monthly global solar radiation intensities for training and testing datasets were higher than 90%, thus suggesting a high reliability of the model for evaluation of solar radiation in locations where solar radiation data are not available. The predicted solar radiation values from the model were given in form of monthly maps. The monthly mean solar radiation potential in northern and southern regions ranged from 7.01–5.62 to 5.43–3.54 kW h/m² day, respectively. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed for the application of the model. The model can be used easily for estimation of solar radiation for preliminary design of solar applications.     

Artificial neural network model for the estimation of direct solar radiation in the Indian zone

This paper presents a self-consistent model for the estimation of direct solar radiation in the Indian zone. It takes into account the atmospheric transmittance modified in accordance with the climate zone and calculates solar radiation at normal incidence using Hottel's clear day model. The regional weather phenomena are taken into account with the help of variables such as relative humidity, mean duration of sunshine per hour and the rainfall, and a composite parameter referred to as sky clearness index (CI) is determined using artificial neural network analysis. The CI is finally applied to the modified Hottel's clear day model to predict the grey day solar irradiance. The model predictions for the Indian region are found to be in good agreement with the measurements. The variability of sky CI is represented by the contours of constant value in Indian region, which in turn would enable the present model to be used in a self-consistent manner.     

Mapping of solar energy potential in Indonesia using artificial neural network and geographical information system

The first objective of this study is to determine the theoretical potential of solar irradiation in Indonesia by using artificial neural networks (ANNs) method. The second objective is to visualize the solar irradiation by province as solar map for the entire of Indonesia. The geographical and meteorological data of 25 locations that were obtained from NASA database are used for training the neural networks and the data from 5 locations were used for testing the estimated values. The testing data were not used in the training of the network in order to give an indication of the performance of the system at unknown locations. In this study, the multi layer perceptron ANNs model, with 9 inputs variables i.e. average temperature, average relative humidity, average sunshine duration, average wind speed, average precipitation, longitude, latitude, latitude, and month of the year were proposed to estimate the monthly solar irradiation as the output. Statistical error analysis in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was conducted for testing data to evaluate the performance of ANN model. The best result of MAPE was found to be 3.4% when 9 neurons were set up in the hidden layer. As developing country and wide islands area, Indonesia has the limitation on the number of meteorological station to record the solar irradiation availability; this study shows the ANN method can be an alternative option to estimate solar irradiation data. Monthly solar mapping by province for the entire of Indonesia are developed in GIS environment by putting the location and solar irradiation value in polygon format. Solar irradiation map can provide useful information about the profile of solar energy resource as the input for the solar energy system implementation.     

Artificial neural networks approach on solar parabolic dish cooker

This paper presents heat transfer analysis of solar parabolic dish cooker using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The objective of this study to envisage thermal performance parameters such as receiver plate and pot water temperatures of the solar parabolic dish cooker by using the ANN for experimental data. An experiment is conducted under two cases (1) cooker with plain receiver and (2) cooker with porous receiver. The Back Propagation (BP) algorithm is used to train and test networks and ANN predictions are compared with experimental results. Different network configurations are studied by the aid of searching a relatively better network for prediction. The results showed a good regression analysis with the correlation coefficients in the range of 0.9968–0.9992 and mean relative errors (MREs) in the range of 1.2586–4.0346% for the test data set. Thus ANN model can successfully be used for the prediction of the thermal performance parameters of parabolic dish cooker with reasonable degree of accuracy.     

Artificial neural network for forecasting residential electrical energy

An artificial neural network (ANN) model for forecasting the residential electrical energy (REE) in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is presented. A comparison of the neural model with the polynomial fit is made for validation purposes. The results show that the forecasting of the REE predicted by the ANN is closer to the real data than that predicted by the polynomial fit model. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural network models for predicting soil thermal resistivity

Thermal properties of soils are of great importance in view of the modern trends of utilizing the subsurface for transmission of either heated fluids or high power currents. For these situations, it is essential to estimate the resistance offered by the soil mass in dissipating the heat generated through it. Several investigators have tried to develop mathematical and theoretical models to estimate soil thermal resistivity. However, it is evident that these models are not efficient enough to predict accurate thermal resistivity of soils. This is mainly due to the fact that thermal resistivity of soils is a complex phenomenon that depends upon various parameters viz., type of the soil, particle size distribution and its compaction characteristics (i.e., dry density and moisture content). To overcome this, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, which are based on experimentally obtained thermal resistivity values for clay, silt, silty-sand, fine- and coarse-sands, have been developed. Incidentally, these soils are the most commonly encountered soils in nature and exhibit entirely different characteristics. The thermal resistivity of these soils, corresponding to their different compaction states, was obtained with the help of a laboratory thermal probe and compared vis-à-vis those obtained from the ANN model. The thermal resistivity of these soils obtained from ANN models and experimental investigations are found to match extremely well. The performance indices such as coefficient of determination, root mean square error, mean absolute error, and variance account for were used to control the performance of the prediction capacity of the models developed in this study. In addition to this, thermal resistivity of these soils obtained from ANN models were compared with those computed from the empirical relationships reported in the literature and were found to be superior. The study demonstrates the utility and efficiency of the ANN model for estimating thermal resistivity of soils.     

Artificial neural network power system stabilizers in multi-machinepower system environment

The effectiveness of an artificial neural network (ANN), functioning as a power system stabilizer (PSS), in damping multi-mode oscillations in a five-machine power system environment is investigated in this paper. Accelerating power of the generating unit is used as the input to the ANN PSS. The proposed ANN PSS using a multilayer neural network with error-backpropagation training method was trained over the full working range of the generating unit with a large variety of disturbances. The ANN was trained to memorize the reverse input/output mapping of the synchronous machine. Results show that the proposed ANN PSS can provide good damping for both local and inter-area modes of oscillations     

A comparison between state-of-the-art and neural network modelling of solar collectors

The state-of-the-art modelling of solar collectors as described in the European Standard EN 12975-2 is based on equations describing the thermal behaviour of the collectors by characterising the physical phenomena, e.g. transmission of irradiance through transparent covers, absorption of irradiance by the absorber, temperature dependent heat losses and others. This approach leads to so called collector parameters that describe these phenomena, e.g. the zero-loss collector efficiency η₀ or the heat loss coefficients a₁ and a₂.Although the state-of-the-art approach in collector modelling and testing fits most of the collector types very well there are some collector designs (e.g. “Sydney” tubes using heat pipes and “water-in-glass” collectors) which cannot be modelled with the same accuracy than conventional collectors like flat plate or standard evacuated tubular collectors. The artificial neural network (ANN) approach could be an appropriate alternative to overcome this drawback.To compare the different approaches of modelling investigations for a conventional flat plate collector and an evacuated “Sydney” tubular collector have been carried out based on performance measurements according to the European Standard EN 12975-2. The investigations include the parameter identification (training), the comparisons between measured and modelled collector output and the simulated yearly collector yield for a solar domestic hot water system for both models.The obtained results show better agreement between measured and calculated collector output for the artificial neural network approach compared with the state-of-the-art modelling. The investigations also show that for the ANN approach special test sequences have to be designed and that the determination of the ANN that fits the thermal performance of the collector in the best way depends significantly on the expertise of the user.Nevertheless artificial neural networks have the potential to become an interesting alternative to the state-of-the-art collector models used today.     

Generating hot water by solar energy and application of neural network

Solar technology already boasts a century of research and development, requires no toxic fuel and relatively little maintenance, is inexhaustible and with adequate financial support, is capable of becoming directly competitive with conventional technologies in many fields. These attributes make solar energy one of the most promising sources for many current and future energy needs.In this study, an experimental solar hot water generator, consisting of a cylindrical concentrator, an absorber, a heat exchanger, a water store, a pump and a control unit has been constructed and tested in order to establish the thermodynamic efficiency of the system.Experimental data were obtained and used to train an artificial neural network in order to implement a mapping between easily measurable features such as environmental conditions, input and output water temperatures, solar radiation and flow rate of hot water.     

Adaptation of an adsorptive solar refrigerator to Moroccan climates

In this paper, we introduce a model taking account of the real operation of an adsorptive solar refrigerator using activated carbon-methanol pairs, as a function of the climatic conditions: ambient temperature and insolation. The model is used to simulate the operation of the refrigerator in two Moroccan climates: Rabat, temperate and humid, and Marrakech, dry and hot. The numerical simulation shows that the behaviour of the refrigerator is different from one climate to the other. In Rabat, which has a Mediterranean climate, the cold room temperature can be maintained at a value practically always less than 5°C; whereas in Marrakech, which has a pre-Saharan climate, an overheating problem can arise in the summer season and temperatures in the cold room can reach 17°C. Results also show that in both climates we are confronted with the problem of freezing because the cold room temperatures can be less than 0°C and reach − 15°C in the winter.     

Artificial neural network models for biomass gasification in fluidized bed gasifiers

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied for modeling biomass gasification process in fluidized bed reactors. Two architectures of ANNs models are presented; one for circulating fluidized bed gasifiers (CFB) and the other for bubbling fluidized bed gasifiers (BFB). Both models determine the producer gas composition (CO, CO₂, H₂, CH₄) and gas yield. Published experimental data from other authors has been used to train the ANNs. The obtained results show that the percentage composition of the main four gas species in producer gas (CO, CO₂, H₂, CH₄) and producer gas yield for a biomass fluidized bed gasifier can be successfully predicted by applying neural networks. ANNs models use in the input layer the biomass composition and few operating parameters, two neurons in the hidden layer and the backpropagation algorithm. The results obtained by these ANNs show high agreement with published experimental data used R² > 0.98. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis has been applied in each ANN model showing that all studied input variables are important.     

Short term solar irradiance forecasting using a mixed wavelet neural network

In modern smart grids and deregulated electricity markets, accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is critical for determining the total energy generated by PV systems. We propose a mixed wavelet neural network (WNN) in this paper for short-term solar irradiance forecasting, with initial application in tropical Singapore. The key advantage of using wavelet transform (WT) based methods is the high signal compression ability of wavelets, making them suitable for modeling of nonstationary environmental parameters with high information content, such as short timescale solar irradiance. In this WNN, a combination of the commonly known Morlet and Mexican hat wavelets is used as the activation function for hidden-layer neurons of a feed forward artificial neural network (ANN). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, hourly predictions of solar irradiance, which is an aggregate sum of irradiance value observed using 25 sensors across Singapore, are considered. The forecasted results show that WNN delivers better prediction skill when compared with other forecasting techniques.     

A regime-dependent artificial neural network technique for short-range solar irradiance forecasting

Solar power can provide substantial power supply to the grid; however, it is also a highly variable energy source due to changes in weather conditions, i.e. clouds, that can cause rapid changes in solar power output. Independent systems operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) monitor the demand load and direct power generation from utilities, define operating limits and create contingency plans to balance the load with the available power generation resources. ISOs, RTOs, and utilities will require solar irradiance forecasts to effectively and efficiently balance the energy grid as the penetration of solar power increases. This study presents a cloud regime-dependent short-range solar irradiance forecasting system to provide 15-min average clearness index forecasts for 15-min, 60-min, 120-min and 180-min lead-times. A k-means algorithm identifies the cloud regime based on surface weather observations and irradiance observations. Then, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are trained to predict the clearness index. This regime-dependent system makes a more accurate deterministic forecast than a global ANN or clearness index persistence and produces more accurate predictions of expected irradiance variability than assuming climatological average variability.     

Artificial neural network prediction indicators of density functional theory metal hydride models

The metal hydride is a capable candidate for mobile storage for hydrogen-powered vehicles. An artificial neural network (ANN) has proved useful for many applications, and capable of much more in discovery of new materials. Because of its ability to generalize from examples presented to it, an ANN is a powerful tool for discovering new metal hydride combinations. An ANN can deduce quantitative structure property relationships for metal hydrides. The ANN found correlations between fundamental electronic and energy values modeled ab initio and several experimental parameters. Some of the properties successfully predicted with good correlation are: entropy, enthalpy, temperature at 1 atm of pressure, pressure at 25 °C, and the percent weight of hydrogen stored. The marriage of ANN to computational modeling produces good predictions for many important properties of metal hydrides.