事故树图形的计算机辅助绘制算法研究

提供了一种有效的算法,根据输入的各种事件的基本信息及其因果逻辑关系,利用树的深度优先遍历后序算法,实现事故树的自动绘制,体现事故树模型分析形象、直观、明了的特点.该算法能即时计算出事故树顶事件发生的概率、最小割集、概率重要度、关键重要度等参数,为对事故树进行定性、定量分析提供强有力的图形和数据支持.     

基于可视化的事故树分析系统研究与开发

事故树分析是安全系统工程最重要的分析方法之一，它能对各种系统的危险性进行辨识和评价，不仅能分析出事故的直接原因，而且能深入地揭示出事故的潜在原因。用它描述事故的因果关系直观、明了，思路清晰，逻辑性强，既可定性分析，又可定量分析。基于可视化理论和技术，建立了事故树可视化模型，确定了系统功能目标，完成了系统结构设计，构造了事故树图形生成与事故树动态分析于一体的集成分析环境，开发出事故树计算机分析系统，为事故分析和安全评价提供高效、准确的技术和方法。     

爆破工程安全评价初探

开展爆破工程安全评价可有效地减少各种危险和有害因素 ,减少爆破事故的发生 ,大型或特殊爆破工程均应进行安全评价。本文提出了对爆破工程开展安全评价的设想 ,并对爆破工程安全评价的内容和方法进行了探讨。文中指出 :根据爆破工程的特点 ,可采用事故树分析和预先危险性分析等方法进行爆破工程的安全评价     

爆破工程安全评价初探

开展爆破工程安全评价可有效地减少各种危险和有害因素 ,减少爆破事故的发生 ,大型或特殊爆破工程均应进行安全评价。本文提出了对爆破工程开展安全评价的设想 ,并对爆破工程安全评价的内容和方法进行了探讨。文中指出 :根据爆破工程的特点 ,可采用事故树分析和预先危险性分析等方法进行爆破工程的安全评价     

The analysis of hazards and the hazards of analysis: reflections on air traffic safety management

The justification of investments in air traffic control systems has typically been based on risk-benefit analyses of the safety of air traffic. But the lack of empirical evidence concerning collisions between aircraft, and the problems of very small numbers make risk analysis inadequate. The pitfalls of risk analysis are discussed in this paper. A framework for safety analysis is proposed where safety is to be assured rather than traded off in the economic sense against other expenditures on the system. The trade-off in the analysis of large investments on control technologies should be between economy and efficiency and should no include safety.     

Probabilistic assessments in relationship with safety integrity levels by using Fault Trees

In this article, we study the assessment of safety integrity levels of safety-instrumented system by means of Fault Trees. We focus on functions with a low demand rate. For these functions, the appropriate measure of performance is the so-called probability of failure on demand (PFD) or probability of not functioning on demand. In order to calculate accurately the average PFD as per IEC 61508 standard, we introduce distributions for periodically tested components into Fault Tree models. We point out the specific problems raised by the assessment of safety integrity levels (SILs), which restrict the use of the formulae proposed in the standard. Among these problems there is the fact that SIL should be assessed by considering the time-dependent behavior of the system unavailability in addition to its average value. We check, on a simple pressure protection system, the results obtained by means of the Fault Tree approach against those obtained by means of stochastic Petri nets with predicates.     

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.     

Analyses of robot systems using fault and event trees: case studies

Safety in the use of robotics outside factories or processing plants has become a matter of great international concern. Domestic robots and those intended to assist nurses and surgeons in hospitals are examples of cases where safety and reliability are considered critical. The safe performance of robot systems depends on many factors, including the integrity of the robot's hardware and software, the way it communicates with sensory and other production equipment, the reliable function of the safety features present and the way the robot interacts with its environment. The use of systematic techniques such as Fault and Event Tree analysis to examine the safety and reliability of a given robotic system is presented. Considerable knowledge is needed before the application of such analysis techniques can be translated into safety specifications or indeed ‘fail-safe’ design features of robotic systems. The skill and understanding required for the formulation of such specifications is demonstrated here based on a number of case studies.     

On how access to an insurance market affects investments in safety measures, based on the expected utility theory

This paper focuses on how access to an insurance market should influence investments in safety measures in accordance with the ruling paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty—the expected utility theory. We show that access to an insurance market in most situations will influence investments in safety measures. For an expected utility maximizer, an overinvestment in safety measures is likely if access to an insurance market is ignored, while an underinvestment in safety measures is likely if insurance is purchased without paying attention to the possibility for reducing the probability and/or consequences of an accidental event by safety measures.     

故障树分析法在某型飞机火控系统故障诊断中的应用

故障树分析法是系统安全、可靠性分析研究中常用的一种方法。基于故障树分析法与专家系统相结合的某型飞机火控系统故障诊断仪,以机载火控系统不工作为顶事件,建立了故障树,并对故障树作了定性分析,本系统不但具有故障诊断能力,还具有较强的自学习的功能。结果表明,故障树分析法是机载火控系统故障诊断的一种有效方法。     

预应力混凝土梁桥系统失效树分析

针对预应力混凝土梁桥,采用失效树的方法进行系统可靠性分析。运用全局临界强度分枝-约界准则识别结构系统主要失效模式,以JC法计算各主要失效模式的可靠指标,采用Ditlevsen上下界公式分析结构体系的失效概率。以某汉江公路大桥为例,分析了失效树图形,研究了主要失效模式的可靠指标、失效概率及桥梁结构体系可靠性。与实桥运营状态的对比分析表明,上述理论分析较好地预测了实际的结构行为,能用于桥梁结构安全性及可靠性分析评估。     

船舶制冷装置高压继电器动作的思考

运用故障树定性分析方法，分析船舶制冷装置中高压继电器动作的故障树模型，探讨了船舶制冷装置高压继电器动作的预防途径，为制冷装置的安全管理提供参考。     

热泵空调换热器水侧污垢故障的诊断

提出了换热器水侧污垢的理论模型;利用减小水流量的方法来模拟污垢故障,当故障发生时,吸排气压力会上升,这相当于热泵的制热系数降低了;神经网络由于具有模拟任何连续非线性函数的能力和利用样本学习的能力,已被用于本系统的故障诊断中;采用感知器学习算法对热泵空调换热器水侧污垢故障进行诊断.     

事故树分析方法(FTA)在大宗特气管理中的应用研究

初步介绍了事故树分析方法,将该方法应用于实际生产,找出了典型事故模式和重要安全隐患。     

Sequence Algebra, Sequence Decision Diagrams and Dynamic Fault Trees

A large attention has been focused on the Dynamic Fault Trees in the past few years. By adding new gates to static (regular) Fault Trees, Dynamic Fault Trees aim to take into account dependencies among events. Merle et al. proposed recently an algebraic framework to give a formal interpretation to these gates.In this article, we extend Merle et al.'s work by adopting a slightly different perspective. We introduce Sequence Algebras that can be seen as Algebras of Basic Events, representing failures of non-repairable components. We show how to interpret Dynamic Fault Trees within this framework. Finally, we propose a new data structure to encode sets of sequences of Basic Events: Sequence Decision Diagrams. Sequence Decision Diagrams are very much inspired from Minato's Zero-Suppressed Binary Decision Diagrams. We show that all operations of Sequence Algebras can be performed on this data structure.     

Risk informed resource allocation policy: safety can save costs

During economic doldrums, decision making on investments for safety is even more difficult than it already is when funds are abundant. This paper attempts to offer some guidance. After stating the present challenge to prevention of losses in the process industries, the systematic approach of quantified risk assessment is briefly reviewed and improvements in the methodology are mentioned. In addition, attention is given to the use of a risk matrix to survey a plant and to derive a plan of action. Subsequently, the reduction of risk is reviewed. Measures for prevention, protection, and mitigation are discussed. The organization of safety has become at least as important as technical safety of equipment and standards. It is reflected in the introduction of a safety management system. Furthermore, the design process in a pro-active approach is described and the concept of inherent safety is briefly addressed. The concept of Layer of Protection Analysis is explained and also the reason why it is relevant to provide a cost-benefit analysis. Finally, after comments regarding the cost of accidents, the basics of costing and profitability are summarized and a way is suggested to apply this approach to risk-reducing measures. An example is provided on how a selection can be made from a number of alternatives.     

State/event fault trees—A safety analysis model for software-controlled systems

Safety models for software-controlled systems should be intuitive, compositional and have the expressive power to model both software and hardware behaviour. Moreover, they should provide quantitative results for failure or hazard probabilities. Fault trees are an accepted and intuitive model for safety analysis, but they are incapable of expressing state dependencies or temporal order of events. We propose to combine fault trees with an explicit State/Event semantics, using a graphical notation that is similar to Statecharts. Our new model, named State/Event Fault Trees (SEFTs), subsumes both deterministic state machines suited to describe software behaviour, and Markov chains that model probabilistic failures, while keeping the visualisation of causal chains known from fault trees. We allow exponentially distributed probabilistic events, deterministic delays, and triggered events. The model provides a component concept, where components are connected by typed ports. Quantitative evaluation is achieved by translating the component models to Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets (DSPNs) and using an existing tool for analysis or simulation. This paper, which is an extended version of [Kaiser B, Gramlich C. State-Event-Fault-Trees—a safety analysis model for software controlled systems. Computer safety, reliability, and security. Proceedings of the 23rd international conference, SAFECOMP 2004, Potsdam, Germany, September 21st–24th. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 3219, 2004.p. 195–209], revisits the model elements and the analysis procedure and provides a small case study of a fire alarm system, completed by an outlook on our tool project ESSaRel.     

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization

This paper is a result of a research with the primary purpose of extending Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling frameworks to include the effects of organizational factors as the deeper, more fundamental causes of accidents and incidents. There have been significant improvements in the sophistication of quantitative methods of safety and risk assessment, but the progress on techniques most suitable for organizational safety risk frameworks has been limited. The focus of this paper is on the choice of “representational schemes” and “techniques.” A methodology for selecting appropriate candidate techniques and their integration in the form of a “hybrid” approach is proposed. Then an example is given through an integration of System Dynamics (SD), Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), Event Sequence Diagram (ESD), and Fault Tree (FT) in order to demonstrate the feasibility and value of hybrid techniques. The proposed hybrid approach integrates deterministic and probabilistic modeling perspectives, and provides a flexible risk management tool for complex socio-technical systems. An application of the hybrid technique is provided in the aviation safety domain, focusing on airline maintenance systems. The example demonstrates how the hybrid method can be used to analyze the dynamic effects of organizational factors on system risk.     

事故树分析中最小割集、最小径集的计算机求解

运用安全系统工程中事故树最小割集和最小径集的布尔变换法和福赛尔行列法的计算思路,编制了最小割集和最小径集的通用求解程序及其程序的使用方法和注意要点.     

Safety Analysis and Protection Measures of the Control System of the Pulsed High Magnetic Field Facility in WHMFC

A Pulsed High Magnetic Field Facility (PHMFF) has been established in Wuhan National High Magnetic Field Center (WHMFC) and various protection measures are applied in its control system. In order to improve the reliability and robustness of the control system, the safety analysis of the PHMFF is carried out based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The function and realization of 5 protection systems, which include sequence experiment operation system, safety assistant system, emergency stop system, fault detecting and processing system and accident isolating protection system, are given. The tests and operation indicate that these measures improve the safety of the facility and ensure the safety of people.